Forecasting Intraday Time Series with Multiple Seasonal Cycles Using Parsimonious Seasonal Exponential Smoothing

This paper concerns the forecasting of seasonal intraday time series. An extension of Holt-Winters exponential smoothing has been proposed that smoothes an intraday cycle and an intraweek cycle. A recently proposed exponential smoothing method involves smoothing a different intraday cycle for each distinct type of day of the week. Similar days are allocated identical intraday cycles. A limitation is that the method allows only whole days to be treated as identical. We introduce an exponential smoothing formulation that allows parts of different days of the week to be treated as identical. The result is a method that involves the smoothing and initialisation of fewer terms than the other two exponential smoothing methods. We evaluate forecasting up to a day ahead using two empirical studies. For electricity load data, the new method compares well with a range of alternatives. The second study involves a series of arrivals at a call centre that is open for a shorter duration at the weekends than on weekdays. By contrast with the previously proposed exponential smoothing methods, our new method can model in a straightforward way this situation, where the number of periods on each day of the week is not the same.Exponential smoothing; Intraday data; Electricity load; Call centre arrivals.

Resistive Magnetohydrodynamic Equilibria in a Torus

It was recently demonstrated that static, resistive, magnetohydrodynamic equilibria, in the presence of spatially-uniform electrical conductivity, do not exist in a torus under a standard set of assumed symmetries and boundary conditions. The difficulty, which goes away in the ``periodic straight cylinder approximation,'' is associated with the necessarily non-vanishing character of the curl of the Lorentz force, j x B. Here, we ask if there exists a spatial profile of electrical conductivity that permits the existence of zero-flow, axisymmetric r esistive equilibria in a torus, and answer the question in the affirmative. However, the physical properties of the conductivity profile are unusual (the conductivity cannot be constant on a magnetic surface, for example) and whether such equilibria are to be considered physically possible remains an open question.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figure

Entanglement between the future and past in the quantum vacuum

We note that massless fields within the future and past light cone may be quantized as independent systems. We show that the vacuum is an entangled state of these systems, exactly mirroring the known entanglement between the spacelike separated Rindler wedges. We describe a detector which exhibits a thermal response to the vacuum when switched on at t=0. The feasibility of experimentally detecting this effect is discussed.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figur

Dual mode laser velocimeter

Described is a laser Doppler velocimeter (LDV) which is capable of operating with a small focus diameter for analyzing fluid flows at low velocity with high spatial resolution, or with a larger focus diameter to measure fluid flows at higher velocities accurately. More particularly, this is an LDV in which a simple reversal of a lens pair will allow it to operate in the two focus diameter modes

Optical coherence tomography with a Fizeau interferometer configuration

We report the investigation of a Fizeau interferometer-based OCT system. A secondary processing interferometer is necessary in this configuration, to compensate the optical path difference formed in the Fizeau interferometer between the end of the fibre and the sample. The Fizeau configuration has the advantage of 'downlead insensitivity', which eliminates polarisation fading. An optical circulator is used in our system to route light efficiently from the source to the sample, and backscattered light from the sample and the fibre end through to the Mach-Zehnder processing interferometer. The choice of a Mach- Zehnder processing interferometer, from which both antiphase outputs are available, facilitates the incorporation of balanced detection, which often results in a large improvement in the Signal-to-Noise ratio (SNR) compared with the use of a single detector. Balanced detection comprises subtraction of the two antiphase interferometer outputs, implying that the signal amplitude is doubled and the noise is well reduced. It has been discerned that the SNR drops when the refractive index variation at a boundary is small. Several OCT images of samples (resin, resin + crystals, fibre composite) are presented

Fiber-optic chemical sensing with Langmuir-Blodgett overlay waveguides

Fiber-optic chemical sensing has been demonstrated with a side-polished single- mode optical fiber, evanescently coupled to chemically sensitive Langmuir- Blodgett (LB) overlay waveguides. The sensors exhibit a channel-dropping response centered on a wavelength that is dependent on the thickness and the refractive index of the overlay waveguide. It has been shown that pH-sensitive organic dyes proved to be suitable materials fur the formation of an overlay waveguide whereas LB deposition provides the required thickness control. A theoretical model of the sensor response, based on the Kramers-Kronig relations and phase matching of the guided modes within the optical fiber and overlay waveguide, shows good agreement with experimental results

Benchmarking the Advanced Search Interfaces of Eight Major WWW Search Engines

This research project was designed to benchmark the performance of the advanced search interfaces of eight of the major World Wide Web (WWW) search engines, excluding the meta engines. A review of the literature did not find any previous benchmarking studies of the advanced interfaces based on quantitative data. The research was performed by fifty-two graduate students of library and information studies (LIS) on three campuses of the University of North Carolina (UNC) as a class research project for course LIS 645, Computer-Related Technologies in Library Management. The class was offered by the Department of Library and Information Studies at UNC Greensboro through the North Carolina Research and Education Network (NC-REN). The LIS students selected Altavista, Excite, Go/Infoseek, Google, Hotbot, Lycos, Northernlight, and Yahoo for comparative study