Reducing the uncertainty in projections of future ice shelf basal melting

Simulations of ice-shelf basal melting in future climate scenarios from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) have revealed a large uncertainty and the potential of a rapidly increasing basal mass loss particularly for the large cold-water ice shelves in the Ross and Weddell Seas. The large spread in model results was traced back to uncertainties in the freshwater budget on the continental shelf, which is governed by sea-ice formation. Differences in sea-ice formation, in turn, were shown to follow the regional differences between the atmospheric heat fluxes imprinted by the climate models. A more recent suite of FESOM model experiments was performed with output from two members of the newer generation of climate models engaged in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Comparing simulations forced with output from the AR5/CMIP5 models HadGem2 and MPI-ESM, we find that projected heat fluxes and thus sea-ice formation over the Southern Ocean continental shelves have converged to an ensemble with a much smaller spread than between the AR4 experiments. For most of the modeled ice shelves, a gradual but accelerating increase of basal melt rates during the 21st century is a robust feature. Both with HadGem2 and with MPI-ESM forcing, basal melt rates for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in FESOM increase by a factor of two by the end of the 21st century in the RCP85 scenario. For the smaller, warm-water ice shelves, inter-model differences in ice-shelf basal mass loss projections are still slightly larger than differences between the scenarios RCP45 and RCP85; compared with AR4 projections, however, the model-dependent spread has been strongly reduced. Current work aims at further reducing the uncertainties arising from atmospheric forcing by using output from the regional climate model RACMO. The effect of a varying cavity geometry and the response of the grounded ice are being adressed by coupling to the RIMBay ice shelf / ice sheet model

An initial intercomparison of atmospheric and oceanic climatology for the ICE-5G and ICE-4G models of LGM paleotopography

This paper investigates the impact of the new ICE-5G paleotopography dataset for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) conditions on a coupled model simulation of the thermal and dynamical state of the glacial atmosphere and on both land surface and sea surface conditions. The study is based upon coupled climate simulations performed with the ocean–atmosphere–sea ice model of intermediate-complexity Climate de Bilt-coupled large-scale ice–ocean (ECBilt-Clio) model. Four simulations focusing on the Last Glacial Maximum [21 000 calendar years before present (BP)] have been analyzed: a first simulation (LGM-4G) that employed the original ICE-4G ice sheet topography and albedo, and a second simulation (LGM-5G) that employed the newly constructed ice sheet topography, denoted ICE-5G, and its respective albedo. Intercomparison of the results obtained in these experiments demonstrates that the LGM-5G simulation delivers significantly enhanced cooling over Canada compared to the LGM-4G simulation whereas positive temperature anomalies are simulated over southern North America and the northern Atlantic. Moreover, introduction of the ICE-5G topography is shown to lead to a deceleration of the subtropical westerlies and to the development of an intensified ridge over North America, which has a profound effect upon the hydrological cycle. Additionally, two flat ice sheet experiments were carried out to investigate the impact of the ice sheet albedo on global climate. By comparing these experiments with the full LGM simulations, it becomes evident that the climate anomalies between LGM-5G and LGM-4G are mainly driven by changes of the earth’s topography

Can woodland caribou and the forest industry coexist: The Ontario scene

Ontario is in the process of developing a strategy to improve the likelihood of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) and the forest industry coexisting in the province. This strategy is described within a set of proposed Timber Management Guidelines for the Provision of Woodland Caribou Habitat. The proposed guidelines advocate managing for large blocks of suitable winter habitat across caribou range, large cutovers to regenerate caribou winter habitat and the protection of traditional calving areas and travel routes. Summer habitat will be provided by the resulting mosaic. The forest industry can provide a sustainable supply of woodland caribou habitat that was traditionally maintained by wildfire

Sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to South Atlantic freshwater anomalies

The sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to changes in basin integrated net evaporation is highly dependent on the zonal salinity contrast at the southern border of the Atlantic. Biases in the freshwater budget strongly affect the stability of the AMOC in numerical models. The impact of these biases is investigated, by adding local anomaly patterns in the South Atlantic to the freshwater fluxes at the surface. These anomalies impact the freshwater and salt transport by the different components of the ocean circulation, in particular the basin-scale salt-advection feedback, completely changing the response of the AMOC to arbitrary perturbations. It is found that an appropriate dipole anomaly pattern at the southern border of the Atlantic Ocean can collapse the AMOC entirely even without a further hosing. The results suggest a new view on the stability of the AMOC, controlled by processes in the South Atlantic. <br/

Withanolides from Jaborosa caulescens var. bipinnatifida

Two new withanolides 2,3-dihydrotrechonolide A (1) and 2,3-dihydro-21-hydroxytrechonolide A (2) were isolated along with two known withanolides trechonolide A (3) and jaborosalactone 39 (4) from Jaborosa caulescens var. bipinnatifida (Solanaceae). The structures of 1-2 were elucidated through 2D NMR and other spectroscopic techniques. In addition, the structure of withanolide 1 was confirmed by X-ray crystallographic analysis

A propensity criterion for networking in an array of coupled chaotic systems

We examine the mutual synchronization of a one dimensional chain of chaotic identical objects in the presence of a stimulus applied to the first site. We first describe the characteristics of the local elements, and then the process whereby a global nontrivial behaviour emerges. A propensity criterion for networking is introduced, consisting in the coexistence within the attractor of a localized chaotic region, which displays high sensitivity to external stimuli,and an island of stability, which provides a reliable coupling signal to the neighbors in the chain. Based on this criterion we compare homoclinic chaos, recently explored in lasers and conjectured to be typical of a single neuron, with Lorenz chaos.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure