Bayesian forecasting using stochastic search variable selection in a VAR subject to breaks

This paper builds a model which has two extensions over a standard VAR. The …rst of these is stochastic search variable selection, which is an automatic model selection device which allows for coefficients in a possibly over-parameterized VAR to be set to zero. The second allows for an unknown number of structual breaks in the VAR parameters. We investigate the in-sample and forecasting performance of our model in an application involving a commonly-used US macro-economic data set. We …nd that, in-sample, these extensions clearly are warranted. In a recursive forecasting exercise, we …nd moderate improvements over a standard VAR, although most of these improvements are due to the use of stochastic search variable selection rather than the inclusion of breaks

Bayesian Forecasting using Stochastic Search Variable Selection in a VAR Subject to Breaks

This paper builds a model which has two extensions over a standard VAR. The first of these is stochastic search variable selection, which is an automatic model selection device which allows for coefficients in a possibly over-parameterized VAR to be set to zero. The second allows for an unknown number of structual breaks in the VAR parameters. We investigate the in-sample and forecasting performance of our model in an application involving a commonly-used US macro-economic data set. We find that, in-sample, these extensions clearly are warranted. In a recursive forecasting exercise, we find moderate improvements over a standard VAR, although most of these improvements are due to the use of stochastic search variable selection rather than the inclusion of breaks. Classification-JEL:

Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.Bayesian, cointegration, model averaging, model selection, Markov chain Monte Carlo

Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.Bayesian, cointegration, model averaging, model selection, Markov chain Monte Carlo

Experiences from treating seven adult 5q spinal muscular atrophy patients with Nusinersen

Background: The antisense oligonucleotide Nusinersen recently became the first approved drug against spinal muscular atrophy (SMA). It was approved for all ages, albeit the clinical trials were conducted exclusively on children. Hence, clinical data on adults being treated with Nusinersen is scarce. In this case series, we report on drug application, organizational demands, and preliminary effects during the first 10 months of treatment with Nusinersen in seven adult patients. Methods: All patients received intrathecal injections with Nusinersen. In cases with severe spinal deformities, we performed computed tomography (CT)-guided applications. We conducted a total of 40 administrations of Nusinersen. We evaluated the patients with motor, pulmonary, and laboratory assessments, and tracked patient-reported outcome. Results: Intrathecal administration of Nusinersen was successful in most patients, even though access to the lumbar intrathecal space in adults with SMA is often challenging. No severe adverse events occurred. Six of the seven patients reported stabilization of motor function or reduction in symptom severity. The changes in the assessed scores did not reach a significant level within this short time period. Conclusions: Treating adult SMA patients with Nusinersen is feasible and most patients consider it beneficial. It demands a complex organizational and interdisciplinary effort. Due to the slowly decreasing motor functions in adult SMA patients, long observation phases for this recently approved treatment are needed to allow conclusions about effectiveness of Nusinersen in adults

Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model

Heavy Meson Production at COSY - 11

The COSY-11 collaboration has measured the total cross section for the pp --> pp eta-prime and pp --> pp eta reactions in the excess energy range from Q = 1.5 MeV to Q = 23.6 MeV and from Q = 0.5 MeV to Q = 5.4 MeV, respectively. Measurements have been performed with the total luminosity of 73 nb^(-1) for the pp --> pp eta reaction and 1360 nb^(-1) for the pp --> pp eta-prime one. Recent results are presented and discussed.Comment: Invited talk at 4th International Conference on Physics at Storage Rings (STORI 99), Bloomington, Indiana, USA, September 12-16, 199

Near-Threshold eta Meson Production in Proton-Proton Collisions

The production of eta mesons has been measured in the proton-proton interaction close to the reaction threshold using the COSY-11 internal facility at the cooler synchrotron COSY. Total cross sections were determined for eight different excess energies in the range from 0.5 MeV to 5.4 MeV. The energy dependence of the total cross section is well described by the available phase-space volume weighted by FSI factors for the proton-proton and proton-eta pairs.Comment: 9 pages, 1 table, 5 figure

Saturation of the filament density of ultrashort intense laser pulses in air

We experimentally and numerically characterize multiple filamentation of laser pulses with incident intensities of a few TW/cm2. Propagating 100TW laser pulses over 42m in air, we observe a new propagation regime where the filament density saturates. As also evidenced by numerical simulations in the same intensity range, the total number of filaments is governed by geometric constraints and mutual interactions among filaments rather than by the available power in the bea