Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).Although policymaking in response to the climate change is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions targets developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Results are shown for atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, sea ice cover and temperature change, along with estimates of the odds of achieving particular target levels, and for the global costs of the associated mitigation policy. Comparison with other studies of climate targets are presented as evidence of the value, in understanding the climate challenge, of more complete analysis of uncertainties in human emissions and climate system response.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

A Survey of Local Group Galaxies Currently Forming Stars. I. UBVRI Photometry of Stars in M31 and M33

We present UBVRI photometry obtained from Mosaic images of M31 and M33 using the KPNO 4-m telescope. The survey covers 2.2 sq degrees of M31, and 0.8 sq degrees of M33, chosen so as to include all of the regions currently active in forming massive stars. The catalog contains 371,781 and 146,622 stars in M31 and M33, respectively, where every star has a counterpart (at least) in B, V, and R. We compare our photometry to previous studies. We provide cross references to the stars confirmed as members by spectroscopy, and compare the location of these to the complete set in color-magnitude diagrams. While follow-up spectroscopy is needed for many projects, we demonstrate the success of our photometry in being able to distinguish M31/M33 members from foreground Galactic stars. We also present the results of newly obtained spectroscopy, which identifies 34 newly confirmed members, including B-A supergiants, the earliest O star known in M31, and two new Luminous Blue Variable candidates whose spectra are similar to that of P Cygni.Comment: Accepted by the Astronomical Journal. A version with higher resolution figures can be found at: http://www.lowell.edu/users/massey/M3133.pdf.g

Success in slow motion: The Europeanization of Romanian child protection policy

Abstract This paper analyzes the influence of the European Union (EU) through a qualitative case study of child protection policy in Romania. This is a particularly tough case for the growing "Europeanization" literature. Prior research has called attention to several factors that promote Europeanization, including the presence of a pro-reform domestic coalition, the clarity and consistency of the EU's own legislative targets, a state's own prior involvement in the setting of European standards, a strong consensus among EU member states backing the European position, and strong non-European support for EU initiatives. According to these propositions, Romanian child protection seemed to provide a worst case scenario for Europeanization, as initially none of these conditions held. And yet the paper shows that substantial Europeanization occurred anyway. We argue that the EU experienced a very slow start with Romania but that it cultivated an opposition that responded to EU initiatives when that opposition took power. Moreover, the EU found three "workarounds" to the obstacles just noted: it asserted legislative targets it did not possess itself, invented new policy tools, and drew protection for its most controversial policy from another international organization, the ECHR. Our central theoretical claim is that external pressure requires internal accommodation in order to have lasting effects. The claim has important implications for the diffusion and conditionality debates

The Cosmological Constant is Back

A diverse set of observations now compellingly suggest that Universe possesses a nonzero cosmological constant. In the context of quantum-field theory a cosmological constant corresponds to the energy density of the vacuum, and the wanted value for the cosmological constant corresponds to a very tiny vacuum energy density. We discuss future observational tests for a cosmological constant as well as the fundamental theoretical challenges---and opportunities---that this poses for particle physics and for extending our understanding of the evolution of the Universe back to the earliest moments.Comment: latex, 8 pages plus one ps figure available as separate compressed uuencoded fil

Long-term timing of four millisecond pulsars

We have timed four millisecond pulses, PSRs J1721-2457, J1745-0952, J1810-2005, and J1918-0642, for up to a total of 10.5 years each using multiple telescopes in the European Pulsar Timing Array network: the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope in The Netherlands, the Nancay Radio Telescope in France and the Lovell telescope at Jodrell Bank in the UK. The long time span has enabled us to measure the proper motions of J1745-0952 and J1918-0642, indicating that they have transverse velocities of 200(50) and 54(7) km/s respectively. We have obtained upper limits on the proper motion of J1721-2457 and J1810-2005, which imply that they have transverse velocities less than 140 and 400 km/s respectively. In all cases, the velocities lie in the range typical of millisecond pulsars. We present pulse profiles for each pulsar taken from observations at multiple frequencies in the range of 350 to 2600 MHz, and show that J1810-2005 shows significant profile evolution in this range. Using our multi-frequency observations, we measured the spectral indices for all four pulsars, and for J1810-2005 it appears to be very flat. The flux density of J1918-0642 shows extensive modulation which we attribute to the combined effects of refractive and diffractive scintillation. We discuss the possible use of including J1721-2457 or J1918-0642 in a pulsar timing array, and find that J1918-0642 will be useful to include when the timing precision of this pulsar is improved over the next few years. We have searched archival optical observations to detect companions of the binary pulsars, but none were detected. However, we provide lower limits on the masses of the white dwarf companions of PSRs J1745-0952 and J1918-0642.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, accepted by Astronomy and Astrophysic

GBT Discovery of Two Binary Millisecond Pulsars in the Globular Cluster M30

We report the discovery of two binary millisecond pulsars in the core-collapsed globular cluster M30 using the Green Bank Telescope (GBT) at 20 cm. PSR J2140-2310A (M30A) is an eclipsing 11-ms pulsar in a 4-hr circular orbit and PSR J2140-23B (M30B) is a 13-ms pulsar in an as yet undetermined but most likely highly eccentric (e>0.5) and relativistic orbit. Timing observations of M30A with a 20-month baseline have provided precise determinations of the pulsar's position (within 4" of the optical centroid of the cluster), and spin and orbital parameters, which constrain the mass of the companion star to be m_2 >~ 0.1Msun. The position of M30A is coincident with a possible thermal X-ray point source found in archival Chandra data which is most likely due to emission from hot polar caps on the neutron star. In addition, there is a faint (V_555 ~ 23.8) star visible in archival HST F555W data that may be the companion to the pulsar. Eclipses of the pulsed radio emission from M30A by the ionized wind from the compact companion star show a frequency dependent duration (\propto\nu^{-\alpha} with \alpha ~ 0.4-0.5) and delay the pulse arrival times near eclipse ingress and egress by up to 2-3 ms. Future observations of M30 may allow both the measurement of post-Keplerian orbital parameters from M30B and the detection of new pulsars due to the effects of strong diffractive scintillation.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, Submitted to ApJ. This version includes many recommended modifications, an improved structure, a new author, and a completely redone optical analysi

Kinematics of Planetary Nebulae in M51's Tidal Debris

We report the results of a radial velocity survey of planetary nebulae (PNe) located in the tidal features of the well-known interacting system NGC 5194/95 (M51). We find clear kinematic evidence that M51's northwestern tidal debris consists of two discrete structures which overlap in projection -- NGC 5195's own tidal tail, and diffuse material stripped from NGC 5194. We compare these kinematic data to a new numerical simulation of the M51 system, and show that the data are consistent with the classic ``single passage'' model for the encounter, with a parabolic satellite trajectory and a 2:1 mass ratio. We also comment on the spectra of two unusual objects: a high-velocity PN which may be associated with NGC 5194's halo, and a possible interloping high-redshift galaxy.Comment: 19 pages, 9 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal. Version has extremely low resolution figures; high resolution version is available at http://www.astro.psu.edu/users/pdurrell/M51PN.ps.gz Obtaining high resolution version is strongly recommende

Timing stability of millisecond pulsars and prospects for gravitational-wave detection

Analysis of high-precision timing observations of an array of approx. 20 millisecond pulsars (a so-called "timing array") may ultimately result in the detection of a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The feasibility of such a detection and the required duration of this type of experiment are determined by the achievable rms of the timing residuals and the timing stability of the pulsars involved. We present results of the first long-term, high-precision timing campaign on a large sample of millisecond pulsars used in gravitational-wave detection projects. We show that the timing residuals of most pulsars in our sample do not contain significant low-frequency noise that could limit the use of these pulsars for decade-long gravitational-wave detection efforts. For our most precisely timed pulsars, intrinsic instabilities of the pulsars or the observing system are shown to contribute to timing irregularities on a five-year timescale below the 100 ns level. Based on those results, realistic sensitivity curves for planned and ongoing timing array efforts are determined. We conclude that prospects for detection of a gravitational-wave background through pulsar timing array efforts within five years to a decade are good.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures, submitted to MNRA