Modeling of the hydrological cycle in the integrated geophysical system

Hidrološki ciklus u integrisanom geofizičkom sistemu ima ulogu da simulira procese vezane za kopnene vode i međusobne interakcije komponenti klimatskog sistema koji opisuju kruženje vode u prirodi. Numerički modeli za prognozu vremena i simulaciju klime obuhvataju najveći deo ovih procesa i razvojem računarskih resursa postaju kompleksniji i prerastaju u modele za simulaciju celog geofizičkog sistema. Hidrološki ciklus u operativnim modelima nije zatvoren zbog nedostatka dinamičkog modela koji simulira kopneni oticaj vode. U ovom radu je predstavljen numerički model za simulaciju i prognozu površinskog oticaja koji direktno utiče na stanje podloge, što je donji granični uslov za atmosferske procese i prognozu vremena. Model je razvijen u skladu sa modelom za prognozu vremena poslednje generacije, NMMB, koji ima sposobnost da simulira procese od globalnih do lokalnih razmera. Testiranje numeričke ispravnosti nove komponente hidrološkog ciklusa kvalifikovalo ga je za povezivanje sa atmosferskim modelom. Povezani numerički model sa zatvorenim hidrološkim ciklusom otvara mogućnost za poboljšanje kvaliteta prognoza i klimatskih simulacija i uvodi nove prognostičke produkte koji mogu naći upotrebu u sistemima najava i upozorenja na ekstremne vremenske prilike. Upotreba ovakvog modela u operativnoj prognozi demonstrirana je na primeru simulacije majskih poplava 2014. godine u oblasti zapadnog Balkana. Povezani model je uspešno reprodukovao hidrološki ciklus ove vremenske nepogode, tj. intenzivne padavine, njihovo oticanje po površini i akumulaciju, uključujući njegovu interakciju sa podlogom i atmosferom, sve do porasta signala u rečnom toku, u skladu sa osmatranjimHydrological cycle in the integrated geophysical system simulates processes related to inland waters and interactions between the climate system components, that describes water cycle in its natural environment. Numerical models for weather forecast and climate simulations include majority of these processes and, following computer resource development, they are more complex and evolve into models of the integrated geophysical system. Hydrological cycle in operational numerical weather prediction models is not complete because dynamical overland water flow component is missing. Here is presented numerical model for simulation and forecast of the surface runoff, which has direct impact on land surface conditions and thereby lower boundary condition for atmospheric processes and weather forecast as well. The model is developed following numerical approach in the last generation weather forecast model, NMMB, which has the ability to simulate processes from global to local scales. Tests for numerical stability of the new hydrological cycle component justified its implementation within the atmospheric model. Coupled numerical model with complete water cycle opens new possibilities for quality increase in weather forecast and climate simulation, and introduces new prognostic products, which can be used in extreme weather warning system. Such model performance in operational forecast is demonstrated in case study of May 2014 flood event over west Balkans. Coupled model successfully simulated hydrological cycle in this extreme weather event with high precipitation, intense water surface runoff and accumulation, including its interaction with land surface and atmosphere, and at the end producing high signal in river discharge as observed

Assessments of current and future suitability of heat conditions for apple growing in Norway

The commercial apple production in Norway is limited to the small regions along the fjord areas in the southwest part of the country and around lakes or near the sea in the southeast part with favorable climate. Due to the rapid rate of climate change over the recent decades, it is expected that suitable heat conditions for apple growing will expand to the areas that previously were too cold. This study analyses the heat suitability of past, present and future climate for six commercial apple varieties in Norway (Discovery, Gravenstein, Summerred, Aroma, Rubinstep, and Elstar). The methodology for identifying favorable heat conditions is developed using meteorological and phenological observations from the Ullensvang orchards and applied on a high-resolution gridded datasets of temperature observations and climate projections. The assessment indicates that with increasing temperatures, heat conditions suitable for cultivation all six apple varieties are expanding. The surfaces with favorable heat conditions for less heat-demanding varieties increased threefold over the last 60 years. In the period 2011-2020, heat suitable climate for cultivating at least one of the considered apple varieties is found at 15% of the analyzed territory, while 2.5% was suitable for growing all six varieties. In the future, the favorable areas will advance from south and southeast northwards and inland in the eastern region, along the west and northwestern coastline towards higher latitudes, and along continental parts of fjords. The fastest expansion of heat suitable conditions is expected for less heat-demanding varieties. The findings of this study show an increasing potential for apple production in Norway that are relevant for strategical planning of climate change adaptation measures within the sector. Weather related risks, such as the risk from damaging low temperatures, drought and extreme precipitation were not considered.Assessments of current and future suitability of heat conditions for apple growing in NorwaypublishedVersio

Održivo upravljanje vodnim resursima i water footprint koncept - primer primene u voćarstvu

Global trends of increase in water scarcity and increase in water demand threatens the sustainability of water resources and requires new approaches in quantifying water use, improving water use efficiency and minimizing environmental impact. One of the newest worldwide acknowledged approaches in quantifying direct and indirect water use is Water Footprint (WF). Paper presents results of the WF application in fruit growing. Two growing options of apple orchards in Čelarevo and Kragujevac areas (Serbia) were analyzed under two IPCC climatic scenarios (A1B and A2). Based on WF application results, paper provides recommendations for mitigating negative climate change impacts, preserving water resources and achieving high yields.Postojeći globalni trend povećanja manjka vode uz istovremeno povećanje zahteva za vodom ugrožava održivost vodnih resursa i zahteva nove pristupe u kvantifikaciji potrošnje vode, povećanju efikasnosti korišćenja vode i minimizaciji negativnog uticaja na životnu sredinu. Jedan od novijih pristupa priznat u naučnom svetu i u praksi je Water Footprint (WF) koji omogućava kvantifikaciju direktnog i indirektnog korišćenja vode. U radu je prikazan jedan od mogućih načina primene koncepta WF u voćarstvu. Analizirane su dve opcije gajenja jabuke (sa travom/bez trave) za područje Čelareva i Kragujevca za dva klimatska scenarija (A1B i A2) i kao rezultat date preporuke potencijalnih mera ublažavanja negativnih efekata klimatskih promena, očuvanja izvorišta vode i obezbeđenja visokih prinosa

[The impact of climate change on the water requirement of grasslands in serbia] [Uticaj klimatskih promena na potrebe prirodnih travnjaka za vodom u Srbiji]

Due to the air temperature increase, longer growing seasons and erratic rainfalls in the last two decades, natural grasslands like meadows or pastures grow in unfavourable climatic conditions that disable the regeneration. The aim of this work is to assess the impact of climate changes on the water requirement of grasslands in Serbia. The results of ensembles of nine regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX database were used to analyse future climatic conditions. As the most probable value, the median of scores obtained for each ensemble member was considered. The period of 1986–2005 was used as the reference. The time slices in future periods are: 2016–2035 (the near future), 2046–2065 (the mid-century) and 2081–2100 (the end of the century). Analyses were conducted for two scenarios of GHG emissions: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Permanent grasslands will be more prone to drought risks in the future. Water shortage could be expected at the end of May when the water stored in the soil will be depleted by the duration of drought until September heavy rains. According to both scenarios, an increment of water requirement of 7% could be expected in the near future. The RCP4.5 scenario projects an increase in the water requirement in the range of 10.7–24.2% from the mid to the end of the century. The less favourable but more realistic RCP8.5 scenario projects a water need increment in the range from 4% to 14 % in the mid-century and 28.4–41.9% toward the end of the century. Recent research indicates that drought resistance will be developed through natural diversity and the spread of species resistant to high temperatures and water scarcity

Seasonal water requirements of maize in the region of Vojvodina

Global climate changes, which are characterized by an increase in temperature, reduction of precipitation, especially during the summer months, significantly affect the overall production of spring sowing crops. Maize is the predominant crop in Serbia. It is grown in about 1 million hectares with average yield about 7,9 t/ha. Precisely for that reason, in this paper, the analysis of water deficit on the maize fields in the region of Vojvodina was performed. The total used agricultural land of the surveyed area is about 1,574,365.71 ha, while the maize grown area occupies about 551,028 ha (35%). A series of meteorological data from the previous 20 years (2000 - 2019) from 7 meteorological stations of the Administrative Districts from the regions covered by the survey were used for the analysis. Evapotranspiration, crop evapotranspiration (maize), effective rainfall and water deficit were calculated using FAO-56 methodology. The amount of water consumed during the evapotranspiration process in the vegetation period averaging about 625.07 mm (from 597.4 mm in the North Bačka District to 646.8 mm in the West Bačka District). Maize has the greatest water requirement during the tasseling and silking phases, in July, when the largest water deficit is observed, which averages 152.51 mm (from 143.6 mm in the South Banat District to 159.2 mm in the Srem District). The seasonal water deficit averages 347.24 mm (from 310.8 mm in the area of South Bačka District to 369 mm in the area of West Bačka District). As the availability of water is a key factor for high and stable maize yields, this research aimed to examine the water requirements in the area where the maize represents more than half of the total production

Water Requirements of Fruit and Vine Plantations in the Area of the Kolubara District in present and Future Conditions

Fruit and vine production in the territory of the Kolubara District encompasses 15,685 ha, which accounts for around 15.3% of the total plant production. When it comes to fruit plantations, plums are the most represented (70%), while peaches and strawberries account for only 0.3%. The aim of this research was to determine the seasonal water requirements of fruit trees in climate change condition, to find out wheter will be changes in irrigation requirement. In addition, the paper includes the analysis of water requirements for the future periods in order to enable producers to adapt their agronomy practices and growing systems to the forthcoming conditions. FAO methodology (FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56), was used to estimate the evapotranspiration, effective precipitation, crop evapotranspiration and water deficit, for 8 groups of fruit plantations: (I) apples, pears, plums, quinces, walnuts and hazels – the orchard without grass cover; (II) apples, pears, plums, quinces, walnuts and hazels – grassy orchard; (III) apricots and peaches – the orchard without grass cover; (IV) apricots and peaches – grassy orchard; (V) sweet cherries and sour cherries - the orchard without grass cover; (VI) sweet cherries and sour cherries - grassy orchard; (VII) strawberries, raspberries, blackberries and blueberries and (VIII) grapevine. The fruit plantations were categorised into the above-mentioned eight groups according to the length of the vegetation period and the crop coefficient values. The observed period from 2000–2019 and two future periods (2021–2040 and 2041–2060) were analysed. The climate data for the reference 2000–2019 period were obtained from the meteorological station in Valjevo. Data for the future climate were obtained using 8 climate models for the RCP 8.5 climate scenario. The paper provides the results obtained as the median of the calculations for eight climate models. The evapotranspiration value varies from 438.6, 429.0 and 440.5 mm for fruit trees from group V, respectively, to 892.2, 857.5 and 884.6 mm for fruit trees belonging to group II, with the average values of 596, 577.9 and 595.4 mm for the reference period, the future 2021–2040 and 2041–2060 periods, respectively. The seasonal water deficit varies from 88.0, 41.3, and 90.6 mm for grapevine (group VIII) to 405.6, 352.3, and 405.3 mm for fruit trees from group II, with the average values of 224.4, 198.7 and 245.3 mm for the reference period, and future 2021–2040 and 2041–2060 periods, respectively. The results of this research indicate that no significant differences in the water requirements between the future periods and the reference period

Observed Changes in Climate Conditions and Weather-Related Risks in Fruit and Grape Production in Serbia

Climate change, through changes in temperature, precipitation, and frequency of extreme events, has influenced agricultural production and food security over the past several decades. In order to assess climate and weather-related risks to fruit and grape production in Serbia, changes in bioclimatic indices and frequency of the occurrence of unfavourable weather events are spatially analysed for the past two decades (1998–2017) and the standard climatological period 1961–1990. Between the two periods, the Winkler and Huglin indices changed into a warmer category in most of the viticultural regions of Serbia. The average change shift was about 200 m towards higher elevations. Regarding the frequency of spring frost, high summer temperatures and water deficit, the most vulnerable regions in terms of fruit and grape production are found alongside large rivers (Danube, Sava, Great and South Morava), as well as in the northern part of the country. Regions below 300 m are under increased risk of high summer temperatures, as the number and duration of occurrences increased significantly over the studied periods. The high-resolution spatial analysis presented here gives an assessment of the climate change influence on the fruit and grapes production. The presented approach may be used in regional impact assessments and national planning of adaptation measures, and it may help increase resilience of agricultural production to climate change

The impact of the irrigation regimes on the Ravaz index in vineyard plavinci under climate change

With increasing aridity and the frequency of extreme events predicted in the near future according to global climate models, soil water availability may become a more important limiting factor in wine production and quality. Wine quality and yield are strongly influenced by climatic conditions and depend on a complex interaction between temperature, water availability, plant material, and viticultural techniques. The aim of this research is to determine the differences between different watering regimes on yield components, with a focus on the value of the Ravaz index. The experiment was conducted during the growing season of 2022 in an organic vineyard called Plavinci (Serbia). The grapevine variety is Panonia and the vines are trained using Smart-Dyson system. The drip irrigation method was applied in three regimes as a percentage of crop evapotranspiration (ETc): full irrigation, F (100% ETc); deficit irrigation, D (50% ETc); and rainfed, R (0% ETc), treatment without irrigation. The watering turn was 7 days, and the watering norm was 15 mm for D and 30 mm for F treatment. The obtained results show that the average weight of bunches are 2.92 kg∙plant−1, 3.18 kg∙plant−1, and 2.83 kg∙plant−1 for F, D, and R, respectively. The Ravaz Index (RI) was calculated by expressing the ratio between the yield and pruning weight. The values of the RI by treatment are 8.3, 7.5, and 6.3 for F, D, and R, respectively. These results confirm the influence of irrigation on yield and severity of pruning, which caused differences in RI between treatments as it increased with the amount of irrigation water applied. Since the RI values in our experiment range from 5 to 10, it indicates a good balance between vegetative growth and productivity in the Panonia grapevine

Enhancing Capacity for Short-Term Climate Change Adaptations in Agriculture in Serbia: Development of Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System

The Integrated Agrometeorological Prediction System (IAPS) was a two-year project for the development of the long term forecast (LRF) for agricultural producers. Using LRF in decision-making, to reduce the risks and seize the opportunities, represents short-term adaptation to climate change. High-resolution ensemble forecasts (51 forecasts) were made for a period of 7 months and were initiated on the first day of each month. For the initial testing of the capacity of LRF to provide useful information for producers, 2017 was chosen as the test year as it had a very hot summer and severe drought, which caused significant impacts on agricultural production. LRF was very useful in predicting the variables which bear the memory of the longer period, such are growing degree days for the prediction of dates of the phenophases’ occurrences and the soil moisture of deeper soil layers as an indicator for the drought. Other project activities included field observations, communication with producers, web portal development, etc. Our results showed that the selected priority forecasting products were also identified by the producers as being the highest weather-related risks, the operational forecast implementation with the products designed for the use in agricultural production is proven to be urgent and necessary for decision-making, and required investments are affordable. The total cost of the full upgrade of agrometeorological climate services to meet current needs (including monitoring, seamless forecasting system development and the development of tools for information dissemination) was found to be about three orders of magnitude lower than the assessed losses in agricultural production in the two extreme years over the past decade

Numerical simulation of Tehran dust storm on 2 june 2014: A case study of agricultural abandoned lands as emission sources

On 2 June 2014, at about 13 UTC, a dust storm arrived in Tehran as a severe hazard that caused injures, deaths, failures in power supply, and traffic disruption. Such an extreme event is not considered as common for the Tehran area, which has raised the question of the dust storm’s origin and the need for increasing citizens’ preparedness during such events. The analysis of the observational data and numerical simulations using coupled dust-atmospheric models showed that intensive convective activity occurred over the south and southwest of Tehran, which produced cold downdrafts and, consequently, high-velocity surface winds. Different dust source masks were used as an input for model hindcasts of the event (forecasts of the past event) to show the capability of the numerical models to perform high-quality forecasts in such events and to expand the knowledge on the storm’s formation and progression. In addition to the proven capability of the models, if engaged in operational use to contribute to the establishment of an early warning system for dust storms, another conclusion appeared as a highlight of this research: abandoned agricultural areas south of Tehran were responsible for over 50% of the airborne dust concentration within the dust storm that surged through Tehran. Such a dust source in the numerical simulation produced a PM10 surface dust concentration of several thousand µm/m3, which classifies it as a dust source hot-spot. The produced evidence indivisibly links issues of land degradation, extreme weather, environmental protection, and health and safety