Modeling of the hydrological cycle in the integrated geophysical system

Hidrološki ciklus u integrisanom geofizičkom sistemu ima ulogu da simulira procese vezane za kopnene vode i međusobne interakcije komponenti klimatskog sistema koji opisuju kruženje vode u prirodi. Numerički modeli za prognozu vremena i simulaciju klime obuhvataju najveći deo ovih procesa i razvojem računarskih resursa postaju kompleksniji i prerastaju u modele za simulaciju celog geofizičkog sistema. Hidrološki ciklus u operativnim modelima nije zatvoren zbog nedostatka dinamičkog modela koji simulira kopneni oticaj vode. U ovom radu je predstavljen numerički model za simulaciju i prognozu površinskog oticaja koji direktno utiče na stanje podloge, što je donji granični uslov za atmosferske procese i prognozu vremena. Model je razvijen u skladu sa modelom za prognozu vremena poslednje generacije, NMMB, koji ima sposobnost da simulira procese od globalnih do lokalnih razmera. Testiranje numeričke ispravnosti nove komponente hidrološkog ciklusa kvalifikovalo ga je za povezivanje sa atmosferskim modelom. Povezani numerički model sa zatvorenim hidrološkim ciklusom otvara mogućnost za poboljšanje kvaliteta prognoza i klimatskih simulacija i uvodi nove prognostičke produkte koji mogu naći upotrebu u sistemima najava i upozorenja na ekstremne vremenske prilike. Upotreba ovakvog modela u operativnoj prognozi demonstrirana je na primeru simulacije majskih poplava 2014. godine u oblasti zapadnog Balkana. Povezani model je uspešno reprodukovao hidrološki ciklus ove vremenske nepogode, tj. intenzivne padavine, njihovo oticanje po površini i akumulaciju, uključujući njegovu interakciju sa podlogom i atmosferom, sve do porasta signala u rečnom toku, u skladu sa osmatranjimHydrological cycle in the integrated geophysical system simulates processes related to inland waters and interactions between the climate system components, that describes water cycle in its natural environment. Numerical models for weather forecast and climate simulations include majority of these processes and, following computer resource development, they are more complex and evolve into models of the integrated geophysical system. Hydrological cycle in operational numerical weather prediction models is not complete because dynamical overland water flow component is missing. Here is presented numerical model for simulation and forecast of the surface runoff, which has direct impact on land surface conditions and thereby lower boundary condition for atmospheric processes and weather forecast as well. The model is developed following numerical approach in the last generation weather forecast model, NMMB, which has the ability to simulate processes from global to local scales. Tests for numerical stability of the new hydrological cycle component justified its implementation within the atmospheric model. Coupled numerical model with complete water cycle opens new possibilities for quality increase in weather forecast and climate simulation, and introduces new prognostic products, which can be used in extreme weather warning system. Such model performance in operational forecast is demonstrated in case study of May 2014 flood event over west Balkans. Coupled model successfully simulated hydrological cycle in this extreme weather event with high precipitation, intense water surface runoff and accumulation, including its interaction with land surface and atmosphere, and at the end producing high signal in river discharge as observed

Global warming impact on climate change in Serbia for the period 1961-2100

Serbia is situated at Balkan Peninsula, and currently majority of the territory is under warm temperate fully humid climate type with warm summers (Cfb type, according to Koppen-Geiger Climate Classification). Observed changes in climate conditions since 1961 until present time show significant increase in temperature change and change in precipitation patterns. Disturbances in heat conditions, which are recorded to affect human health, agricultural production and forest ecosystem, are priority in climate change analysis and application in adaptation planning. Future change analysis show accelerated increase of temperature by the end of the 21st century, which proves the needs for immediate measures for mitigation of negative impacts. Temperature increase averaged over the territory of Serbia is 1.2 degrees C for the period 1996-2015 with respect to the period 1961-1980, with highest increase of maximum daily temperature during the summer season, 2.2 degrees C. Using high resolution multi-model ensemble approach for analysis of the future changes with respect to the base period 1986-2005, in compliance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (ARS), it is estimated that temperature may increase by 1.9 degrees C according to Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario and by 4.4 degrees C according to RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Spatial distribution of temperature increase, intensification of high precipitation events and decrease of summer precipitation, show intrusion of subtropical climate over the Serbia and increase of high temperature and high precipitation risks. Results presented in this paper, using high-resolution multi-model ensemble approach, provide climate change information for short term to long term planning in different sectors of economy and preservation of human health and environment

[The impact of climate change on the water requirement of grasslands in serbia] [Uticaj klimatskih promena na potrebe prirodnih travnjaka za vodom u Srbiji]

Due to the air temperature increase, longer growing seasons and erratic rainfalls in the last two decades, natural grasslands like meadows or pastures grow in unfavourable climatic conditions that disable the regeneration. The aim of this work is to assess the impact of climate changes on the water requirement of grasslands in Serbia. The results of ensembles of nine regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX database were used to analyse future climatic conditions. As the most probable value, the median of scores obtained for each ensemble member was considered. The period of 1986–2005 was used as the reference. The time slices in future periods are: 2016–2035 (the near future), 2046–2065 (the mid-century) and 2081–2100 (the end of the century). Analyses were conducted for two scenarios of GHG emissions: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Permanent grasslands will be more prone to drought risks in the future. Water shortage could be expected at the end of May when the water stored in the soil will be depleted by the duration of drought until September heavy rains. According to both scenarios, an increment of water requirement of 7% could be expected in the near future. The RCP4.5 scenario projects an increase in the water requirement in the range of 10.7–24.2% from the mid to the end of the century. The less favourable but more realistic RCP8.5 scenario projects a water need increment in the range from 4% to 14 % in the mid-century and 28.4–41.9% toward the end of the century. Recent research indicates that drought resistance will be developed through natural diversity and the spread of species resistant to high temperatures and water scarcity

EFFECTS OF TEMPERATURE ON ACYRTHOSIPHON PISUM AND THERIOAPHIS TRIFOLII (HEMIPTERA: APHIDIDAE) ABUNDANCE IN ALFALFA CROPS: A CASE STUDY IN NORTHERN SERBIA

Populations of the most abundant alfalfa aphids, Acyrthosiphon pisum and Therioaphis trifolii, have periodic fluctuations, and many factors affect their dynamics. In the present study, we examined the impact of daily air temperatures on the abundance of two alfalfa aphids in field conditions. The numbers of these two aphids on alfalfa were documented at two locations in a representative alfalfa growing area in Serbia during a three-year field study. Based on the records of aphid abundance and daily air temperatures during the whole study, it was found that a correlation between the sum of optimal daily air temperatures for aphid development, the sum of maximum daily air temperatures and the number of recorded aphid peaks was significant and can therefore be considered for the detection of suitable temperature conditions to increase aphid abundance. The study shows that the highest correlations were between a high density of A. pisum and the sum of optimal daily air temperatures for its development (Ck=0.569) and between a high density of T. trifolii and the sum of maximum daily air temperatures (Ck=0.595). The length of time required for the growth of populations of the two alfalfa aphids differed: 30 days for A. pisum and 5 days for T. trifolii. The association of temperature data to alfalfa aphid abundance enables a projection of their population behavior in changed future climate conditions. This study suggests increased population sizes of T. trifolii and decreased population sizes of A. pisum on alfalfa under the warmer conditions that are expected to prevail in the future. © 2022 Journal of Agricultural Sciences (Belgrade). All rights reserved

Modeling of the hydrological cycle in the integrated geophysical system

Hidrološki ciklus u integrisanom geofizičkom sistemu ima ulogu da simulira procese vezane za kopnene vode i međusobne interakcije komponenti klimatskog sistema koji opisuju kruženje vode u prirodi. Numerički modeli za prognozu vremena i simulaciju klime obuhvataju najveći deo ovih procesa i razvojem računarskih resursa postaju kompleksniji i prerastaju u modele za simulaciju celog geofizičkog sistema. Hidrološki ciklus u operativnim modelima nije zatvoren zbog nedostatka dinamičkog modela koji simulira kopneni oticaj vode. U ovom radu je predstavljen numerički model za simulaciju i prognozu površinskog oticaja koji direktno utiče na stanje podloge, što je donji granični uslov za atmosferske procese i prognozu vremena. Model je razvijen u skladu sa modelom za prognozu vremena poslednje generacije, NMMB, koji ima sposobnost da simulira procese od globalnih do lokalnih razmera. Testiranje numeričke ispravnosti nove komponente hidrološkog ciklusa kvalifikovalo ga je za povezivanje sa atmosferskim modelom. Povezani numerički model sa zatvorenim hidrološkim ciklusom otvara mogućnost za poboljšanje kvaliteta prognoza i klimatskih simulacija i uvodi nove prognostičke produkte koji mogu naći upotrebu u sistemima najava i upozorenja na ekstremne vremenske prilike. Upotreba ovakvog modela u operativnoj prognozi demonstrirana je na primeru simulacije majskih poplava 2014. godine u oblasti zapadnog Balkana. Povezani model je uspešno reprodukovao hidrološki ciklus ove vremenske nepogode, tj. intenzivne padavine, njihovo oticanje po površini i akumulaciju, uključujući njegovu interakciju sa podlogom i atmosferom, sve do porasta signala u rečnom toku, u skladu sa osmatranjimHydrological cycle in the integrated geophysical system simulates processes related to inland waters and interactions between the climate system components, that describes water cycle in its natural environment. Numerical models for weather forecast and climate simulations include majority of these processes and, following computer resource development, they are more complex and evolve into models of the integrated geophysical system. Hydrological cycle in operational numerical weather prediction models is not complete because dynamical overland water flow component is missing. Here is presented numerical model for simulation and forecast of the surface runoff, which has direct impact on land surface conditions and thereby lower boundary condition for atmospheric processes and weather forecast as well. The model is developed following numerical approach in the last generation weather forecast model, NMMB, which has the ability to simulate processes from global to local scales. Tests for numerical stability of the new hydrological cycle component justified its implementation within the atmospheric model. Coupled numerical model with complete water cycle opens new possibilities for quality increase in weather forecast and climate simulation, and introduces new prognostic products, which can be used in extreme weather warning system. Such model performance in operational forecast is demonstrated in case study of May 2014 flood event over west Balkans. Coupled model successfully simulated hydrological cycle in this extreme weather event with high precipitation, intense water surface runoff and accumulation, including its interaction with land surface and atmosphere, and at the end producing high signal in river discharge as observed

Future climatic suitability of the Emilia-Romagna (Italy) region for grape production

Grape production is highly responsive to weather conditions and therefore very sensitive to climate change. To evaluate how viticulture in the traditional Italian wine region Emilia-Romagna could be affected by climate change, several bioclimatic indices describing the suitability for grapevine production were calculated for two future periods (2011-2040 and 2071-2100) using CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) high-resolution climate simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenariosRCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The projections for both of the RCP scenarios showed that most of the Emilia-Romagna region will remain suitable for grape production during the period 2011-2040. By the end of the twenty-first century, the suitability to produce grapes in Emilia-Romagna could be threatened to a greater or smaller extent, depending on the scenario. During the period 2071-2100, the entire Emilia-Romagna region will be too hot for grape production under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, changes will be milder, suggesting that the Emilia-Romagna region could still be suitable for grape cultivation by the end of the twenty-first century but would likely require certain adjustments

Analysis of grapevine phenology in the region of Sremski Karlovci

A comprehensive analysis of phenological timing and growth intervals for eight red and thirteen white wine grape cultivars in the region of Sremski Karlovci was performed using a long-term (1986-2011) data set. Four phenological stages of grapevine were examined: beginning of budburst, beginning of flowering, beginning of veraison and harvest. The phenological stages studied exhibited a 30 to 51 day variation between the earliest and latest years for red cultivars and 29 to 49 day variation for white cultivars. The beginning of flowering exhibited the least, while harvest showed the highest inter-annual variation. The difference between red and white cultivars was the greatest for harvest - the mean harvest date averaged over all red cultivars was 24 September and over all white cultivars 14 September. The beginning of flowering to the beginning of veraison interval showed the smallest and budburst to harvest interval the greatest year-toyear variability. The beginning of budburst to harvest period for the cultivars examined averaged 165 days for red and 156 days for white cultivars, with the mean interval range of 58 days for red and 55 days for white cultivars. In addition, it was found that a variability of the onset and duration of phenological phases was greater between years for a single cultivar than among cultivars within individual years, meaning that climatic factors are more important than genetic characteristics of cultivars for phenological timing. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 43007: Studying climate change and its influence on the environment: impacts, adaptation and mitigation

Climatic shifts in high quality wine production areas, Emilia Romagna, Italy, 1961-2015

In the presented work, daily observations of minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation-spatially interpolated in a high-resolution grid (5 x 5 km)-were used to detect climate shifts in the viticultural appellation areas of the Emilia-Romagna (ER) region, in the periods 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. The growing season (April to October) minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures were significantly increased in the second period compared to the first over the majority of the ER. Precipitation did not differ significantly, with the exception of certain small northeastern areas of the ER. The detected changes affected the ER viticultural environment in several ways: (1) an increase in the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 30 degrees C, which can induce plant stress; (2) changes in starting and ending dates of the climatologically defined growing season, dates of the first fall frost and the last spring frost, and length of the frost-free period; (3) shifts of most vineyard areas from 'Region 2/Region 3' to 'Region 3/Region 4' (according to the Winkler Index); (4) shifts of the majority of the grape-producing zones from 'temperate/warm temperate' to 'warm temperate/warm' (according to the Huglin Index); (5) de creased availability of soil water, which is necessary for grapevine development