Satellite versus ground-based estimates of burned area: a comparison between MODIS based burned area and fire agency reports over North America in 2007

North American wildfire management teams routinely assess burned area on site during firefighting campaigns; meanwhile, satellite observations provide systematic and global burned-area data. Here we compare satellite and ground-based daily burned area for wildfire events for selected large fires across North America in 2007 on daily timescales. In a sample of 26 fires across North America, we found the Global Fire Emissions Database Version 4 (GFED4) estimated about 80% of the burned area logged in ground-based Incident Status Summary (ICS-209) over 8-day analysis windows. Linear regression analysis found a slope between GFED and ICS-209 of 0.67 (with R = 0.96). The agreement between these data sets was found to degrade at short timescales (from R = 0.81 for 4-day to R = 0.55 for 2-day). Furthermore, during large burning days (> 3000 ha) GFED4 typically estimates half of the burned area logged in the ICS-209 estimates

Clouds, photolysis and regional tropospheric ozone budgets.

We use a three-dimensional chemical transport model to examine the shortwave radiative effects of clouds on the tropospheric ozone budget. In addition to looking at changes in global concentrations as previous studies have done, we examine changes in ozone chemical production and loss caused by clouds and how these vary in different parts of the troposphere. On a global scale, we find that clouds have a modest effect on ozone chemistry, but on a regional scale their role is much more significant, with the size of the response dependent on the region. The largest averaged changes in chemical budgets (±10–14%) are found in the marine troposphere, where cloud optical depths are high. We demonstrate that cloud effects are small on average in the middle troposphere because this is a transition region between reduction and enhancement in photolysis rates. We show that increases in boundary layer ozone due to clouds are driven by large-scale changes in downward ozone transport from higher in the troposphere rather than by decreases in in-situ ozone chemical loss rates. Increases in upper tropospheric ozone are caused by higher production rates due to backscattering of radiation and consequent increases in photolysis rates, mainly J(NO2). The global radiative effect of clouds on isoprene, through decreases of OH in the lower troposphere, is stronger than on ozone. Tropospheric isoprene lifetime increases by 7% when taking clouds into account. We compare the importance of clouds in contributing to uncertainties in the global ozone budget with the role of other radiatively-important factors. The budget is most sensitive to the overhead ozone column, while surface albedo and clouds have smaller effects. However, uncertainty in representing the spatial distribution of clouds may lead to a large sensitivity of the ozone budget components on regional scales

Interannual variability of tropospheric composition:the influence of changes in emissions, meteorology and clouds

We have run a chemistry transport model (CTM) to systematically examine the drivers of interannual variability of tropospheric composition during 1996-2000. This period was characterised by anomalous meteorological conditions associated with the strong El Nino of 1997-1998 and intense wildfires, which produced a large amount of pollution. On a global scale, changing meteorology (winds, temperatures, humidity and clouds) is found to be the most important factor driving interannual variability of NO2 and ozone on the timescales considered. Changes in stratosphere-troposphere exchange, which are largely driven by meteorological variability, are found to play a particularly important role in driving ozone changes. The strong influence of emissions on NO2 and ozone interannual variability is largely confined to areas where intense biomass burning events occur. For CO, interannual variability is almost solely driven by emission changes, while for OH meteorology dominates, with the radiative influence of clouds being a very strong contributor. Through a simple attribution analysis for 1996-2000 we conclude that changing cloudiness drives 25% of the interannual variability of OH over Europe by affecting shortwave radiation. Over Indonesia this figure is as high as 71%. Changes in cloudiness contribute a small but non-negligible amount (up to 6%) to the interannual variability of ozone over Europe and Indonesia. This suggests that future assessments of trends in tropospheric oxidizing capacity should account for interannual variability in cloudiness, a factor neglected in many previous studies

Linkages Between Ozone-depleting Substances, Tropospheric Oxidation and Aerosols

Coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere allows changes in stratospheric ozone abundances to affect tropospheric chemistry. Large-scale effects from such changes on chemically produced tropospheric aerosols have not been systematically examined in past studies. We use a composition-climate model to investigate potential past and future impacts of changes in stratospheric ozone depleting substances (ODS) on tropospheric oxidants and sulfate aerosols. In most experiments, we find significant responses in tropospheric photolysis and oxidants, with small but significant effects on methane radiative forcing. The response of sulfate aerosols is sizeable when examining the effect of increasing future nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. We also find that without the regulation of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) through the Montreal Protocol, sulfate aerosols could have increased by 2050 by a comparable amount to the decreases predicted due to relatively stringent sulfur emissions controls. The individual historical radiative forcings of CFCs and N2O through their indirect effects on methane (22.6mW/sq. m for CFCs and 6.7mW/sq. m for N2O) and sulfate aerosols (3.0mW/sq. m for CFCs and +6.5mW/sq. m for N2O when considering the direct aerosol effect) discussed here are non-negligible when compared to known historical ODS forcing. Our results stress the importance of accounting for stratosphere-troposphere, gas-aerosol and composition-climate interactions when investigating the effects of changing emissions on atmospheric composition and climate

Theory of Bubble Nucleation and Cooperativity in DNA Melting

The onset of intermediate states (denaturation bubbles) and their role during the melting transition of DNA are studied using the Peyrard-Bishop-Daxuois model by Monte Carlo simulations with no adjustable parameters. Comparison is made with previously published experimental results finding excellent agreement. Melting curves, critical DNA segment length for stability of bubbles and the possibility of a two states transition are studied.Comment: 4 figures. Accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter

Precipitation response to regional radiative forcing

Precipitation shifts can have large impacts on human society and ecosystems. Many aspects of how inhomogeneous radiative forcings influence precipitation remain unclear, however. Here we investigate regional precipitation responses to various forcings imposed in different latitude bands in a climate model. We find that several regions show strong, significant responses to most forcings, but that the magnitude and even the sign depends upon the forcing location and type. Aerosol and ozone forcings typically induce larger responses than equivalent carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) forcing, and the influence of remote forcings often outweighs that of local forcings. Consistent with this, ozone and especially aerosols contribute greatly to precipitation changes over the Sahel and South and East Asia in historical simulations, and inclusion of aerosols greatly increases the agreement with observed trends in these areas, which cannot be attributed to either greenhouse gases or natural forcings. Estimates of precipitation responses derived from multiplying our Regional Precipitation Potentials (RPP; the response per unit forcing relationships) by historical forcings typically capture the actual response in full transient climate simulations fairly well, suggesting that these relationships may provide useful metrics. The strong sensitivity to aerosol and ozone forcing suggests that although some air quality improvements may unmask greenhouse gas-induced warming, they have large benefits for reducing regional disruption of the hydrologic cycle

Local and remote climate impacts of future African aerosol emissions

The potential future trend in African aerosol emissions is uncertain, with a large range found in future scenarios used to drive climate projections. The future climate impact of these emissions is therefore uncertain. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, transient future experiments were performed with the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) to investigate the effect of African emissions following the high emission SSP370 scenario as the rest of the world follows the more sustainable SSP119, relative to a global SSP119 control. This isolates the effect of Africa following a relatively more polluted future emissions pathway. Compared to SSP119, SSP370 projects higher non-biomass-burning (non-BB) aerosol emissions, but lower biomass burning emissions, over Africa. Increased shortwave (SW) absorption by black carbon aerosol leads to a global warming, but the reduction in the local incident surface radiation close to the emissions is larger, causing a local cooling effect. The local cooling persists even when including the higher African CO2 emissions under SSP370 than SSP119. The global warming is significantly higher by 0.07 K when including the non-BB aerosol increases and higher still (0.22 K) when including all aerosols and CO2. Precipitation also exhibits complex changes. Northward shifts in the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) occur under relatively warm Northern Hemisphere land, and local rainfall is enhanced due to mid-tropospheric instability from black carbon absorption. These results highlight the importance of future African aerosol emissions for regional and global climate and the spatial complexity of this climate influence

Probing the mechanical unzipping of DNA

A study of the micromechanical unzipping of DNA in the framework of the Peyrard-Bishop-Dauxois model is presented. We introduce a Monte Carlo technique that allows accurate determination of the dependence of the unzipping forces on unzipping speed and temperature. Our findings agree quantitatively with experimental results for homogeneous DNA, and for $\lambda$-phage DNA we reproduce the recently obtained experimental force-temperature phase diagram. Finally, we argue that there may be fundamental differences between {\em in vivo} and {\em in vitro} DNA unzipping

INFERNO: a fire and emissions scheme for the UK Met Office's Unified Model

Warm and dry climatological conditions favour the occurrence of forest fires. These fires then become a significant emission source to the atmosphere. Despite this global importance, fires are a local phenomenon and are difficult to represent in a large-scale Earth System Model (ESM). To address this, the INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments (INFERNO) was developed. INFERNO follows a reduced complexity approach and is intended for decadal to centennial scale climate simulations and assessment models for policy making. Fuel flammability is simulated using temperature, relative humidity, fuel density as well as precipitation and soil moisture. Combining flammability with ignitions and vegetation, burnt area is diagnosed. Emissions of carbon and key species are estimated using the carbon scheme in the JULES land surface model. JULES also possesses fire index diagnostics which we document and compare with our fire scheme. Two meteorology datasets and three ignition modes are used to validate the model. INFERNO is shown to effectively diagnose global fire occurrence (R = 0.66) and emissions (R = 0.59) through an approach appropriate to the complexity of an ESM, although regional biases remain

The importance of antecedent vegetation and drought conditions as global drivers of burnt area

The seasonal and longer-term dynamics of fuel accumulation affect fire seasonality and the occurrence of extreme wildfires. Failure to account for their influence may help to explain why state-of-the-art fire models do not simulate the length and timing of the fire season or interannual variability in burnt area well. We investigated the impact of accounting for different timescales of fuel production and accumulation on burnt area using a suite of random forest regression models that included the immediate impact of climate, vegetation, and human influences in a given month and tested the impact of various combinations of antecedent conditions in four productivity-related vegetation indices and in antecedent moisture conditions. Analyses were conducted for the period from 2010 to 2015 inclusive. Inclusion of antecedent vegetation conditions representing fuel build-up led to an improvement of the global, climatological out-of-sample R2 from 0.579 to 0.701, but the inclusion of antecedent vegetation conditions on timescales ≥1 year had no impact on simulated burnt area. Current moisture levels were the dominant influence on fuel drying. Additionally, antecedent moisture levels were important for fuel build-up. The models also enabled the visualisation of interactions between variables, such as the importance of antecedent productivity coupled with instantaneous drying. The length of the period which needs to be considered varies across biomes; fuel-limited regions are sensitive to antecedent conditions that determine fuel build-up over longer time periods (g1/44 months), while moisture-limited regions are more sensitive to current conditions that regulate fuel drying