Full-field and anomaly initialization using a low-order climate model: a comparison and proposals for advanced formulations

Initialization techniques for seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions fall into two main categories; namely full-field initialization (FFI) and anomaly initialization (AI). In the FFI case the initial model state is replaced by the best possible available estimate of the real state. By doing so the initial error is efficiently reduced but, due to the unavoidable presence of model deficiencies, once the model is let free to run a prediction, its trajectory drifts away from the observations no matter how small the initial error is. This problem is partly overcome with AI where the aim is to forecast future anomalies by assimilating observed anomalies on an estimate of the model climate. The large variety of experimental setups, models and observational networks adopted worldwide make it difficult to draw firm conclusions on the respective advantages and drawbacks of FFI and AI, or to identify distinctive lines for improvement. The lack of a unified mathematical framework adds an additional difficulty toward the design of adequate initialization strategies that fit the desired forecast horizon, observational network and model at hand. Here we compare FFI and AI using a low-order climate model of nine ordinary differential equations and use the notation and concepts of data assimilation theory to highlight their error scaling properties. This analysis suggests better performances using FFI when a good observational network is available and reveals the direct relation of its skill with the observational accuracy. The skill of AI appears, however, mostly related to the model quality and clear increases of skill can only be expected in coincidence with model upgrades. We have compared FFI and AI in experiments in which either the full system or the atmosphere and ocean were independently initialized. In the former case FFI shows better and longer-lasting improvements, with skillful predictions until month 30. In the initialization of single compartments, the best performance is obtained when the stabler component of the model (the ocean) is initialized, but with FFI it is possible to have some predictive skill even when the most unstable compartment (the extratropical atmosphere) is observed. Two advanced formulations, least-square initialization (LSI) and exploring parameter uncertainty (EPU), are introduced. Using LSI the initialization makes use of model statistics to propagate information from observation locations to the entire model domain. Numerical results show that LSI improves the performance of FFI in all the situations when only a portion of the system's state is observed. EPU is an online drift correction method in which the drift caused by the parametric error is estimated using a short-time evolution law and is then removed during the forecast run. Its implementation in conjunction with FFI allows us to improve the prediction skill within the first forecast year. Finally, the application of these results in the context of realistic climate models is discussed

The 2.35 year itch of Cyg OB2 #9. II. Radio monitoring

Cyg OB2 #9 is one of a small set of non-thermal radio emitting massive O-star binaries. The non-thermal radiation is due to synchrotron emission in the colliding-wind region. Cyg OB2 #9 was only recently discovered to be a binary system and a multi-wavelength campaign was organized to study its 2011 periastron passage. We report here on the results of the radio observations obtained in this monitoring campaign. We used the Expanded Very Large Array (EVLA) radio interferometer to obtain 6 and 20 cm continuum fluxes. The observed radio light curve shows a steep drop in flux sometime before periastron. The fluxes drop to a level that is comparable to the expected free-free emission from the stellar winds, suggesting that the non-thermal emitting region is completely hidden at that time. After periastron passage, the fluxes slowly increase. We introduce a simple model to solve the radiative transfer in the stellar winds and the colliding-wind region, and thus determine the expected behaviour of the radio light curve. From the asymmetry of the light curve, we show that the primary has the stronger wind. This is somewhat unexpected if we use the astrophysical parameters based on theoretical calibrations. But it becomes entirely feasible if we take into account that a given spectral type - luminosity class combination covers a range of astrophysical parameters. The colliding-wind region also contributes to the free-free emission, which can help to explain the high values of the spectral index seen after periastron passage. Combining our data with older Very Large Array (VLA) data allows us to derive a period P = 860.0 +- 3.7 days for this system. With this period, we update the orbital parameters that were derived in the first paper of this series.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in A&

Current management of herpes zoster: The European view

The overall incidence of herpes zoster in Europe is approximately 3 per 1000 people per year and more than 10 per 1000 people per year in those aged >80 years. Post herpetic neuralgia (PHN) is a common debilitating complication of herpes zoster, particularly in patients aged >50 years, in persons with severe pain or rash at presentation, and in those with significant prodromal symptoms. Antiviral drugs can effectively control acute symptoms and, if used early enough in the course of the illness, can help prevent the development of PHN and other complications. However, despite this, many patients do not receive such treatment. The economic impact of zoster and PHN is largely underestimated in Europe. Furthermore, there is considerable variation throughout Europe in the management of herpes zoster. Use of antiviral therapy including the newer potent antiviral agents such as brivudin, which requires less frequent administration than acyclovir, is improving patient outcomes in some European countries. However, in many countries, patient awareness of herpes zoster and, as a result, overall antiviral use is low. Guidelines recommending the use of antiviral agents, particularly in patients at risk of developing PHN, are available but are not widely used. More needs to be done to educate the general public and increase awareness among primary healthcare providers of the benefits of timely and appropriate pharmacological therapy in patients with herpes zoster. © 2005 Adis Data Information BV. All rights reserved

Plasmatic and urinary glycosaminoglycans characterization in mucopolysaccharidosis II Patient treated with enzyme-replacement therapy with Idursulfase

We report the structural characterization of plasmatic and urinary GAGs in a Patient affected by MPS II (Hunter syndrome) before and during the first ten months of enzyme-replacement therapy (ERT). Plasmatic GAGs before ERT were rich in pathological DS consisting of iduronic acid (IdoA) and composed of ~90% \uf044Di4s and trace amounts of disulfated disaccharides. DS was also characterized as the main (~90%) urinary GAG mainly composed of ~90% \uf044Di4s with minor percentages of monosulfated and disulfated disaccharides, in particular \u394Di2,4dis. After 300 days of ERT, plasmatic DS strongly decreased but ~14% of IdoA-rich \uf044Di4s was still detected. Similarly, urinary galactosaminoglycans were mainly composed of 78% \uf044Di4s, ~11% \uf044Di6s and ~4% \uf044Di0s with the persistence of \u394Di2,4dis (~4%). About 40% of IdoA-formed \uf044Di4s were also calculated thus confirming that pathological DS is still present in excreted urinary GAGs during ERT. By considering the % of IdoA, we observed rather similar kinetics of excretion in fluids from the beginning of the treatment. Immediately after the first enzyme infusion, a large amount of abnormal DS is removed from tissues reaching the blood compartment and eliminated via the urine, and this process lasts for about two weeks. After this, the percentage of IdoA-rich material present in biological fluids remains fairly constant over the following nine months of treatment. To date, these are the first data regarding plasmatic and urinary kinetics directly measured on products released by the activity of the recombinant enzyme Idursulfase, iduronate-2-sulfatase, evaluated using specific and sensitive analytical procedures

Feasibility of a storage ring for polar molecules in strong-field-seeking states

We show, through modeling and simulation, that it is feasible to construct a storage ring that will store dense bunches of strong-field-seeking polar molecules at 30 m/s (kinetic energy of 2K) and hold them, for several minutes, against losses due to defocusing, oscillations, and diffusion. The ring, 3 m in diameter, has straight sections that afford access to the stored molecules and a lattice structure that may be adapted for evaporative cooling. Simulation is done using a newly-developed code that tracks the particles, in time, through 400 turns; it accounts for longitudinal velocity changes as a function of external electric field, focusing and deflection nonlinearities, and the effects of gravity. An injector, decelerator, and source are included and intensities are calculated.Comment: 6 pages 5 figures, 3 table

The role of DDK and Treslin-MTBP in coordinating replication licensing and pre-Initiation Complex formation

Treslin/Ticrr is required for the initiation of DNA replication and binds to MTBP (Mdm2 Binding Protein). Here, we show that in Xenopus egg extract, MTBP forms an elongated tetramer with Treslin containing two molecules of each protein. Immunodepletion and add-back experiments show that Treslin–MTBP is rate limiting for replication initiation. It is recruited onto chromatin before S phase starts and recruitment continues during S phase. We show that DDK activity both increases and strengthens the interaction of Treslin–MTBP with licensed chromatin. We also show that DDK activity cooperates with CDK activity to drive the interaction of Treslin–MTBP with TopBP1 which is a regulated crucial step in pre-initiation complex formation. These results suggest how DDK works together with CDKs to regulate Treslin–MTBP and plays a crucial in selecting which origins will undergo initiation

Molecular vibration in cold collision theory

Cold collisions of ground state oxygen molecules with Helium have been investigated in a wide range of cold collision energies (from 1 $\mu$K up to 10 K) treating the oxygen molecule first as a rigid rotor and then introducing the vibrational degree of freedom. The comparison between the two models shows that at low energies the rigid rotor approximation is very accurate and able to describe all the dynamical features of the system. The comparison between the two models has also been extended to cases where the interaction potential He - O$_2$ is made artificially stronger. In this case vibration can perturb rate constants, but fine-tuning the rigid rotor potential can alleviate the discrepancies between the two models.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figure