Uncertainty Quantification for complex computer models with nonstationary output. Bayesian optimal design for iterative refocussing

In this thesis, we provide the Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) tools to assist automatic and robust calibration of complex computer models. Our tools allow users to construct a cheap (statistical) surrogate, a Gaussian process (GP) emulator, based on a small number of climate model runs. History matching (HM), the calibration process of removing parameter space for which computer model outputs are inconsistent with the observations, is combined with an emulator. The remaining subset of parameter space is termed the Not Ruled Out Yet (NROY). A weakly stationary GP with a covariance function that depends on the distance between two input points is the principal tool in UQ. However, the stationarity assumption is inadequate when we operate with a heterogeneous model response. In this thesis, we develop diagnostic-led nonstationary GP emulators with a kernel mixture. We employ diagnostics from a stationary GP fit to identify input regions with distinct model behaviour and obtain mixing functions for a kernel mixture. The result is a continuous emulator in parameter space that adapts to changes in model response behaviour. History matching has proven to be more effective when performed in waves. At each wave of HM, a new ensemble is obtained to update an emulator before finding an NROY space. In this thesis, we propose a Bayesian experimental design with a loss function that compares the volume of the NROY space obtained with an updated emulator to the volume of the “true” NROY space obtained using a “perfect” emulator. We combine Bayesian Design Criterion with our proposed nonstationary GP emulator to perform calibration of climate model

Methods of active teaching in professional training of the education specialist

The peculiar features of active teaching methods are presented. It is noted that learning teaching is conducted in the situations close to the real ones. Such approach allows to analize the material in situationsПредставлены отличительные особенности активных методов обучения. Отмечено, обучение проводится в ситуациях, максимально приближённых к реальным, позволяя материал, подлежащий усвоению, ввести в цель деятельности, а не в средств

Introduction as a Genre of Auto-Commentary in Works of I. S. Turgenev

The phenomenon of the author’s reflection on his works is considered on the basis of the introductions by I. S. Turgenev. The absence of special works on this topic allows us to speak about the novelty of the study. Its relevance is associated with raising the question of the specifics and role of the author’s understanding of the meaning of his own works and its correlation with the perception of the reader. The results of a comparative analysis of all of Turgenev’s introductions are presented in the article. The attitude of Turgenev to the opinion of the reader and criticism is shown. It is proved that Turgenev’s introductions “do not justify” their theoretical expectations, because the writer deliberately refuses to comment on the intentionality and meaning of his works in them. It is concluded that this allows the writer to express a theoretically important idea about the “non-interference” of the writer in the text he created. Particular attention is paid to the “Introduction to the Novels”, which is a kind of metatext uniting all six works of this genre, which allows Turgenev to determine the main direction and principles of his work. It is shown that these issues are considered by the writer in the context of general aesthetic problems: the specifics of artistic cognition, freedom of creativity, the conscious and unconscious in art, the relationship between the artist and the critic / reader, etc

Performativity in Estonian Political Theatre of the 2010s

The main political theatre of the 2010s in Estonia was Teater NO99 (2005–2019), which created several experimental projects. The performance Tallinn — Our City (2010) was a tour through the Old Town, during which the guide revealed corruption schemes with the real estate in which city government and personally mayor Edgar Savisaar were allegedly involved. The fictitious political movement Unified Estonia with the final performance United Estonia Assembly (2010) existed for 44 days and copied unfair campaigning of parliamentary parties, thereby predicting the rise of hyper-populism in the 2010s. The documentary production Meeting of the Leadership of the Reform Party (2012) was devoted to a real investigation into the suspicious financing of the ruling party. The musical Savisaar (2015), released during the parliamentary elections, foresaw the fall of the chairman of the Estonian Centre Party, Edgar Savisaar, who had held power for too long. At the same time, the performance activated the followers of the politician, which led to the fact that the year of the performance's release marked the highest level of electoral activity. Performances From the Second Glance (2016) and I’d Rather Dance with You (2016) gathered Estonian and Russian-speaking audience in theatre halls to talk about the problems that had accumulated in society. The play Will Be/Won’t Be: Estonia in 100 Years (2018) was based on the surveys of children and students: the younger generation should choose which way of development Estonia would take. By participating in interactive voting, viewers themselves decided what kind of Estonia they wanted to see: multicultural, technological, nationalistic, ecological Estonia. There could be distinguished three strategies of performativity in the political theater of Estonia: 1) role reversal, when the audience becomes participants in the production and realizes themselves as subjects of the political process, and the active political forces (government, party) turn out to be spectators of an unpredictable theatrical action; 2) usage of space outside the theater (city, media, social networks) to signify how public spaces become the stage for real politics; 3) erasing the line between art and reality, when a fictitious process exists along with the real political process and even affects it

ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЕ СИСТЕМНОГО ПОДХОДА К СОВРЕМЕННЫМ ПОЛИТИКО-ПРАВОВЫМ СИСТЕМАМ ГОСУДАРСТВ ПО ВОПРОСАМ ПРОТИВОДЕЙСТВИЯ МЕЖДУНАРОДНОМУ (ТРАНСНАЦИОНАЛЬНОМУ) ЭКСТРЕМИЗМУ

The purpose of the article is to study the political and legal systems of states on countering international extremism with the use of a systematic approach in the context of certain characteristics of Eastern and Western (European) countries, as well as the United States and Great Britain. The methodological base includes the use of comparative analysis (identifications and differences) and methods for constructing certain typologies of Western and Eastern states, which are grouped according to both qualitative and quantitative characteristics. Findings. In modern conditions, a systematic approach in scientific research has been used since the mid-50s of the 20th century. The article discusses this approach in the political and legal sphere on international issues; Eastern and Western (European) types of states in the context of countering extremism are analyzed as examples. The processes of globalization influenced the 21st century led to the emergence of "transnational extremism." In modern conditions, in order to counter international (transnational) extremism, it is necessary to develop new mechanisms and approaches, taking into account the realities of modern society. The world community has encountered the use of Internet space by extremist organizations, which threatens the security of modern society and individual countries. Countering extremism on an international scale is proposed to be carried out in the following areas: first, the development of an international legal and information base; second, the creation of a favorable social and economic environment in states and regions; third, the development of mechanisms to prevent the financing of extremist activities; fourth, the creation of an international analytical structure involving scientific personnel from different countries to identify the causes of extremism in different regions of the world community and develop forecasts at certain stages in different regions, and develop modern mechanisms to counter transnational extremism.El propósito del artículo es estudiar los sistemas políticos y legales de los estados para contrarrestar el extremismo internacional con el uso de un enfoque sistemático en el contexto de ciertas características de los países orientales y occidentales (europeos), los Estados Unidos y Gran Bretaña. . La base metodológica incluye el uso de análisis comparativos (identificaciones y diferencias) y métodos para construir ciertas tipologías de estados occidentales y orientales, que se agrupan de acuerdo con las características cualitativas y cuantitativas. Recomendaciones. En las condiciones modernas, se ha utilizado un enfoque sistemático en la investigación científica desde mediados de los años 50 del siglo XX. El artículo discute este enfoque en la esfera política y legal en asuntos internacionales; Se analizan como ejemplos los tipos de estados del este y del oeste (europeos) en el contexto de la lucha contra el extremismo. Los procesos de globalización que influyeron en el siglo XXI llevaron a la aparición del "extremismo transnacional". En las condiciones modernas, para contrarrestar el extremismo internacional (transnacional), es necesario desarrollar nuevos mecanismos y enfoques, teniendo en cuenta las realidades de la sociedad moderna.La comunidad mundial ha encontrado el uso del espacio de Internet por parte de organizaciones extremistas, lo que amenaza la seguridad de la sociedad moderna y los países individuales. Se propone llevar a cabo la lucha contra el extremismo a escala internacional en las siguientes áreas: primero, el desarrollo de una base legal e informativa internacional; segundo, la creación de un entorno social y económico favorable en los estados y regiones; tercero, el desarrollo de mecanismos para prevenir el financiamiento de actividades extremistas; cuarto, la creación de una estructura analítica internacional con personal científico de diferentes países para identificar las causas del extremismo en diferentes regiones de la comunidad mundial y desarrollar pronósticos en ciertas etapas en diferentes regiones, y desarrollar mecanismos modernos para contrarrestar el extremismo transnacional.Цель исследования–исследование политико-правовые системы государств по вопросам противодействия международному экстремизму с применением системного подхода в контексте определенных особенностей восточных и западных (европейских) стран, а также США и Великобритании.Методологическая база включает применение сравнительного анализа (отождествления и различия) и методы построения определенных типологий западных и восточных государств, которые группируются как по качественным, так и количественным признакам.Выводы. В современных условиях в научных исследованиях применяется системный подход с середины 50-х годов ХХ столетия. В статье этот подход рассматривается в политико-правовой сфере по международным вопросам, а в качестве примеров анализируются восточный и западный (европейских) типы государств мирового сообщества в контексте вопросов противодействия экстремизму.Процессы глобализации повлияли в ХХI веке обусловили появление «транснационального экстремизма». В современных условиях для противодействия международному (транснациональному) экстремизму необходимо разрабатывать новые механизмы и подходы с учетом реалий современного общества.Особую тревогу вызывает религиозный экстремизм, особенно в исламских странах, который постепенно распространяющегося по всему миру. Ислам определяет черты организации и деятельности восточных государств и является частью политического механизма, а также влияет на развитие государств и на общественно-политические и государственно-правовые отношения в них и является политико-идеологической основой.Мировое сообщество столкнулось с использованием интернет-пространства экстремистскими организациями, что угрожает безопасности современного общества и отдельных стран. В международном масштабе вести противодействие экстремизму предлагается в последующих направлениях: первое - разработка международной правовой и информационной баз; второе - создание в государствах и регионах благоприятной социальной и экономической обстановки; третье - выработка механизмов по предотвращению финансирования экстремистской деятельности; четвертое - создание международного аналитической структуры с привлечением научных кадров из разных стран мира для выявления причин, способствующих возникновению экстремизма в разных регионах мирового сообщества и разработки прогнозов на определенных этапах в разных регионах, и выработки современных механизмов противодействия транснациональному экстремизму

Action Immersion in the Social and Cultural Environment in the Course of Adult’s Foreign Language Training

Рассматривается проблема вынужденного, а не самоактуализированного обучения иностранному языку студентов, работников образования, представителей практических сфер деятельности. Раскрываются некоторые теоретические и методические возможности преодоления деструктивных проявлений возникшей потребности в результативном обучении иностранному языку. Теоретико-методологические предпосылки обосновываются в контексте анализа гуманистического подхода и деятельностных традиций отечественной психолого-педагогической науки.This article deals with the problem of forced and Self-actualized teaching of a foreign language for students, workers of education and representatives of practical spheres of activity. The authors reveal some theoretical and methodological possibilities to overcome the destructive manifestations of the needs arising in effective foreign language teaching. Theoretical and methodological assumptions are justified in the context of the analysis of humanistic approach and activity theory traditions of Russian psychological and pedagogical science

Modern Approaches to Administration of Long-Term Science- Intensive and High Technology Projects

The article introduces a novel and relevant research methods which were based on the most topical principles of project management, focused on effective time, price, and final results management. The aim of the following article is to highlight the peculiarities of the modern approaches to the administration of long-lasting science-intensive and hi-tech projects that distinguish these projects from the traditional methods. Special attention was given to the methodology of such managerial aspects as substantiation of the system-forming principles, placed in the root model of administration of long-term scientific-intensive and hi-tech projects and development of roadmaps by the creation stages of scientific-intensive processes, including the maintenance events and corresponding documents for each stage. As a result, the groups of hard and soft factors were revealed incoherence to project management influence factors. Also, the role functions and distribution of responsibility of members of scientifically-intensive projects/programs were defined. With the help of analysis of nature dependencies related to the strategic aspect of the project, an increase of initial costs of the long-term and high-risk projects had also been described

The Criterion of Usefulness in the Evaluation of Art in the Russian Literary Criticism of the 1860s

Поступила в редакцию 18.10.2017. Принята к печати 30.01.2018.Submitted on 18 October, 2017. Accepted on 30 January, 2018.Статья посвящена полемике в русской критике 1860-х гг. о назначении, цели и «полезности» искусства. Сопоставительный анализ работ публицистической и эстетической критики, а также М. Н. Каткова и Н. Д. Ахшарумова позволил прийти к следующим выводам. Критические дискуссии этого периода продемонстрировали разнообразие ответов на указанные вопросы, при сохранении ряда константных идей. Это утверждение пользы искусства как популяризатора научного знания, акцент на его просветительской функции; признание ценности искусства как фактора духовно-нравственного воздействия на человека; полемическое заявление о его «практической» бесполезности, избыточности, с точки зрения рационального взгляда на вещи. Индивидуальная авторская методология, собственные аксиологические предпочтения обусловили различное понимание критиками 1850–1860-х гг. вопроса о пользе искусства. Так, Н. Г. Чернышевский считает, что пропагандируя, популяризируя научные знания, искусство помогает изменить сознание человека и даже улучшить его материальное и социальное положение, иначе говоря, быть для него практически полезным. А. В. Дружинин, В. П. Боткин, П. В. Анненков, говоря о роли и значении искусства, вообще не используют эту оценочную категорию. Для М. Н. Каткова представление о пользе искусства оказывается связано с идеей свободы художественного творчества, его независимости от любого внешнего диктата. Н. Д. Ахшарумов отвергает сам критерий пользы по отношению к искусству. Вместе с тем в их полемике обнаружились и свои внутренние сближения, внешне не столь очевидные, но существенные для понимания сложности взаимоотношений разных эстетических теорий и ключевых проблем самой эпохи. Полемика в критике 1850–1860-х гг. по поводу пользы искусства свидетельствует об относительности этой аксиологической категории, а также ее исторической изменчивости. Однако, независимо от истолкования этой категории, она остается константным понятием, определяющим в глазах общества и частного человека ценность искусства, его назначение и необходимость. Актуальные для эпохи всеобщих перемен, какой была середина XIX в., эти вопросы являются востребованными в любое время, способное к рефлексии по поводу «вечных» проблем.This article considers discussions about the purpose and usefulness of art which took place in the Russian literary criticism of the 1860s. A comparative analysis of journalistic and aesthetic criticism as well as works by M. N. Katkov and N. D. Akhsharumov leads the author to conclude that the critical discussions of the period in question had a variety of answers to these questions, but there was a number of recurring ideas. Art is seen as a tool for popularising scientific knowledge and has enlightening functions; it is recognised as a valuable factor capable of spiritually and morally influencing people; it is regarded as lacking practical usefulness, and superfluous when considered from the rational viewpoint. Depending on the authors’ methods and their own axiological preferences, the usefulness of art was considered differently between the 1850s and 1860s. For instance, N. G. Chernyshevsky argues that when promoting and popularising academic knowledge, art helps change people’s consciousness and improve their material and social status, in other words, it can become practically useful. A. V. Druzhinin, V. P. Botkin, and P. V. Annenkov do not use any evaluative categories when speaking about the role and meaning of art. For M. N. Katkov, the idea of usefulness of art is connected with the idea of creative freedom, and independence of creative work from any dictatorship from without. N. D. Akhshrumov thinks the criterion of usefulness cannot be applied to art at all. In spite of the polemic nature of the issue, all the above mentioned approaches manifest certain similarities, though not obvious enough, but anyway significant for the understanding of the complex relations between different aesthetic theories and key problems of the epoch. Discussions about the usefulness of art in the criticism of the 1850s–1860s testify to the relativity of this axiological category and its historical changeability. However, regardless of the interpretations of the category, it remains a constant notion which determines the value of art for an individual and society as a whole as well as its purpose and need for it. Such issues were topical in the 19th century, an era of change, and they remain relevant in any epoch capable of reflection and not indifferent to ‘eternal’ questions