Readmission following pancreatectomy: what can be improved?

AbstractBackgroundReadmissions after pancreatectomy, largely for the management of complications, may also occur as a result of failure to thrive or for diagnostic endeavours. Potential mechanisms to reduce readmission rates may be elucidated by assessing the adequacy of the initial disposition and the real necessity for readmission.MethodsUsing previously identified categories of readmission following pancreatectomy, details of reasons for and results of readmissions were scrutinized using a root cause analysis approach.ResultsOf 658 patients subjected to pancreatectomy between 2001 and 2010, 121 (18%) were readmitted within 30 days. The clinical course in 30% of readmitted patients was found to deviate from the pathway assumed on the initial admission. Patients were readmitted at a median of 9 days (range: 1–30 days) after initial discharge and had a median readmission length of stay of 7 days (mode = 4). Postoperative complications accounted for most readmissions (n = 77, 64%); 17 patients (14%) were readmitted for failure to thrive and 16 (13%) for diagnostics. Root cause analysis detailed subtextual reasons for readmission, including, for example, the initiation of new medications that could potentially have been ordered in an outpatient setting.ConclusionsMore than one quarter of readmissions after pancreatectomy occurred in the setting of failure to thrive or for diagnostic evaluation alone. Root cause analysis revealed potentially avoidable readmissions. The development of a system for stratifying patients at risk for readmission or the failure of the initial disposition, along with an alternative means of efficiently evaluating patients in an outpatient setting, could limit unnecessary readmissions and resource utilization

Definition and classification of chyle leak after pancreatic operation: A consensus statement by the International Study Group on Pancreatic Surgery

Recent literature suggests that chyle leak may complicate up to 10% of pancreatic resections. Treatment depends on its severity, which may include chylous ascites. No international consensus definition or grading system of chyle leak currently is available. The International Study Group on Pancreatic Surgery, an international panel of pancreatic surgeons working in well-known, high-volume centers, reviewed the literature and worked together to establish a consensus on the definition and classification of chyle leak after pancreatic operation. Chyle leak was defined as output of milky-colored fluid from a drain, drain site, or wound on or after postoperative day 3, with a triglyceride content ≥110 mg/dL (≥1.2 mmol/L). Three different grades of severity were defined according to the management needed: grade A, no specific intervention other than oral dietary restrictions; grade B, prolongation of hospital stay, nasoenteral nutrition with dietary restriction, total parenteral nutrition, octreotide, maintenance of surgical drains, or placement of new percutaneous drains; and grade C, need for other more invasive in-hospital treatment, intensive care unit admission, or mortality. This classification and grading system for chyle leak after pancreatic resection allows for comparison of outcomes between series. As with the other the International Study Group on Pancreatic Surgery consensus statements, this classification should facilitate communication and evaluation of different approaches to the prevention and treatment of this complicatio

Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in European countries: technical description update

Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, wide-scale social distancing including local and national lockdowns. In this technical update, we extend a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model that infers the impact of these interventions and estimates the number of infections over time. Our methods assume that changes in the reproductive number - a measure of transmission - are an immediate response to these interventions being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour. Our model estimates these changes by calculating backwards from temporal data on observed to estimate the number of infections and rate of transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for a probabilistic time lag between infection and death. In this update we extend our original model [Flaxman, Mishra, Gandy et al 2020, Report #13, Imperial College London] to include (a) population saturation effects, (b) prior uncertainty on the infection fatality ratio, (c) a more balanced prior on intervention effects and (d) partial pooling of the lockdown intervention covariate. We also (e) included another 3 countries (Greece, the Netherlands and Portugal). The model code is available at https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model/ We are now reporting the results of our updated model online at https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19estimates/ We estimated parameters jointly for all M=14 countries in a single hierarchical model. Inference is performed in the probabilistic programming language Stan using an adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler

Rapid ethical assessment on informed consent content and procedure in Hintalo-Wajirat, Northern Ethiopia: a qualitative study

Background Informed consent is a key component of bio-medical research involving human participants. However, obtaining informed consent is challenging in low literacy and resource limited settings. Rapid Ethical Assessment (REA) can be used to contextualize and simplify consent information within a given study community. The current study aimed to explore the effects of social, cultural, and religious factors during informed consent process on a proposed HPV-serotype prevalence study. Methodology A qualitative community-based REA was conducted in Adigudom and Mynebri Kebeles, Northern Ethiopia, from July to August 2013. Data were collected by a multi-disciplinary team using open ended questions concerning informed consent components in relation to the parent study. The team conducted one-to-one In-Depth Interviews (IDI) and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with key informants and community members to collect data based on the themes of the study. Tape recorded data were transcribed in Tigrigna and then translated into English. Data were categorized and thematically analyzed using open coding and content analysis based on pre-defined themes. Results The REA study revealed a number of socio-cultural issues relevant to the proposed study. Low community awareness about health research, participant rights and cervical cancer were documented. Giving a vaginal sample for testing was considered to be highly embarrassing, whereas giving a blood sample made participants worry that they might be given a result without the possibility of treatment. Verbal consent was preferred to written consent for the proposed study. Conclusion This rapid ethical assessment disclosed important socio-cultural issues which might act as barriers to informed decision making. The findings were important for contextual modification of the Information Sheet, and to guide the best consent process for the proposed study. Both are likely to have enabled participants to understand the informed consent better and consequently to comply with the study

Role of Adjuvant Multimodality Therapy After Curative-Intent Resection of Ampullary Carcinoma

Importance: Ampullary adenocarcinoma is a rare malignant neoplasm that arises within the duodenal ampullary complex. The role of adjuvant therapy (AT) in the treatment of ampullary adenocarcinoma has not been clearly defined. Objective: To determine if long-term survival after curative-intent resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma may be improved by selection of patients for AT directed by histologic subtype. Design, setting, and participants: This multinational, retrospective cohort study was conducted at 12 institutions from April 1, 2000, to July 31, 2017, among 357 patients with resected, nonmetastatic ampullary adenocarcinoma receiving surgery alone or AT. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify covariates associated with overall survival. The surgery alone and AT cohorts were matched 1:1 by propensity scores based on the likelihood of receiving AT or by survival hazard from Cox modeling. Overall survival was compared with Kaplan-Meier estimates. Exposures: Adjuvant chemotherapy (fluorouracil- or gemcitabine-based) with or without radiotherapy. Main outcomes and measures: Overall survival. Results: A total of 357 patients (156 women and 201 men; median age, 65.8 years [interquartile range, 58-74 years]) underwent curative-intent resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma. Patients with intestinal subtype had a longer median overall survival compared with those with pancreatobiliary subtype (77 vs 54 months; P = .05). Histologic subtype was not associated with AT administration (intestinal, 52.9% [101 of 191]; and pancreatobiliary, 59.5% [78 of 131]; P = .24). Patients with pancreatobiliary histologic subtype most commonly received gemcitabine-based regimens (71.0% [22 of 31]) or combinations of gemcitabine and fluorouracil (12.9% [4 of 31]), whereas treatment of those with intestinal histologic subtype was more varied (fluorouracil, 50.0% [17 of 34]; gemcitabine, 44.1% [15 of 34]; P = .01). In the propensity score-matched cohort, AT was not associated with a survival benefit for either histologic subtype (intestinal: hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.67-2.16; P = .53; pancreatobiliary: hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 0.66-2.76; P = .41). Conclusions and relevance: Adjuvant therapy was more frequently used in patients with poor prognostic factors but was not associated with demonstrable improvements in survival, regardless of tumor histologic subtype. The value of a multimodality regimen remains poorly defined

Changing composition of SARS-CoV-2 lineages and rise of Delta variant in England.

BACKGROUND: Since its emergence in Autumn 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC) B.1.1.7 (WHO label Alpha) rapidly became the dominant lineage across much of Europe. Simultaneously, several other VOCs were identified globally. Unlike B.1.1.7, some of these VOCs possess mutations thought to confer partial immune escape. Understanding when and how these additional VOCs pose a threat in settings where B.1.1.7 is currently dominant is vital. METHODS: We examine trends in the prevalence of non-B.1.1.7 lineages in London and other English regions using passive-case detection PCR data, cross-sectional community infection surveys, genomic surveillance, and wastewater monitoring. The study period spans from 31st January 2021 to 15th May 2021. FINDINGS: Across data sources, the percentage of non-B.1.1.7 variants has been increasing since late March 2021. This increase was initially driven by a variety of lineages with immune escape. From mid-April, B.1.617.2 (WHO label Delta) spread rapidly, becoming the dominant variant in England by late May. INTERPRETATION: The outcome of competition between variants depends on a wide range of factors such as intrinsic transmissibility, evasion of prior immunity, demographic specificities and interactions with non-pharmaceutical interventions. The presence and rise of non-B.1.1.7 variants in March likely was driven by importations and some community transmission. There was competition between non-B.1.17 variants which resulted in B.1.617.2 becoming dominant in April and May with considerable community transmission. Our results underscore that early detection of new variants requires a diverse array of data sources in community surveillance. Continued real-time information on the highly dynamic composition and trajectory of different SARS-CoV-2 lineages is essential to future control efforts. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research, Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, DeepMind, EPSRC, EA Funds programme, Open Philanthropy, Academy of Medical Sciences Bill,Melinda Gates Foundation, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, The Novo Nordisk Foundation, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Community Jameel, Cancer Research UK, Imperial College COVID-19 Research Fund, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Sanger Institute.National Institute for Health Research, Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, DeepMind, EPSRC, EA Funds programme, Open Philanthropy, Academy of Medical Sciences Bill,Melinda Gates Foundation, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, The Novo Nordisk Foundation, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Community Jameel, Cancer Research UK, Imperial College COVID-19 Research Fund, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Sanger Institute

State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States

As of 1st June 2020, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country. We jointly model the US epidemic at the state-level, using publicly available deathdata within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework. For each state, we estimate the number of individuals that have been infected, the number of individuals that are currently infectious and the time-varying reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected person). We use changes in mobility to capture the impact that non-pharmaceutical interventions and other behaviour changes have on therate of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate thatRtwas only below one in 23 states on 1st June. We also estimate that 3.7% [3.4%-4.0%] of the total population of the US had been infected, with wide variation between states, and approximately 0.01% of the population was infectious. We demonstrate good 3 week model forecasts of deaths with low error and good coverage of our credible intervals

Genomics and epidemiology of the P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil

Cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in Manaus, Brazil, resurged in late 2020 despite previously high levels of infection. Genome sequencing of viruses sampled in Manaus between November 2020 and January 2021 revealed the emergence and circulation of a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern. Lineage P.1 acquired 17 mutations, including a trio in the spike protein (K417T, E484K, and N501Y) associated with increased binding to the human ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2) receptor. Molecular clock analysis shows that P.1 emergence occurred around mid-November 2020 and was preceded by a period of faster molecular evolution. Using a two-category dynamical model that integrates genomic and mortality data, we estimate that P.1 may be 1.7- to 2.4-fold more transmissible and that previous (non-P.1) infection provides 54 to 79% of the protection against infection with P.1 that it provides against non-P.1 lineages. Enhanced global genomic surveillance of variants of concern, which may exhibit increased transmissibility and/or immune evasion, is critical to accelerate pandemic responsiveness