Recurrent host mobility in spatial epidemics: beyond reaction-diffusion

Human mobility is a key factor in spatial disease dynamics and related phenomena. In computational models host mobility is typically modelled by diffusion in space or on metapolulation networks. Alternatively, an effective force of infection across distance has been introduced to capture spatial dispersal implicitly. Both approaches do not account for important aspects of natural human mobility, diffusion does not capture the high degree of predictability in natural human mobility patters, e.g. the high percentage of return movements to individuals' base location, the effective force of infection approach assumes immediate equilibrium with respect to dispersal. These conditions are typically not met in natural scenarios. We investigate an epidemiological model that explicitly captures natural individual mobility patterns. We systematically investigate generic dynamical features of the model on regular lattices as well as metapopulation networks and show that generally the model exhibits significant dynamical differences in comparison to ordinary diffusion and effective force of infection models. For instance, the natural human mobility model exhibits a saturation of wave front speeds and a novel type of invasion threshold that is a function of the return rate in mobility patterns. In the light of these new findings and with the availability of precise and pervasive data on human mobility our approach provides a framework for a more sophisticated modeling of spatial disease dynamics

Mild Adverse Events of Sputnik V Vaccine in Russia: Social Media Content Analysis of Telegram via Deep Learning

Background: There is a limited amount of data on the safety profile of the COVID-19 vector vaccine Gam-COVID-Vac (Sputnik V). Previous infodemiology studies showed that social media discourse could be analyzed to assess the most concerning adverse events (AE) caused by drugs. Objective: We aimed to investigate mild AEs of Sputnik V based on a participatory trial conducted on Telegram in the Russian language. We compared AEs extracted from Telegram with other limited databases on Sputnik V and other COVID-19 vaccines. We explored symptom co-occurrence patterns and determined how counts of administered doses, age, gender, and sequence of shots could confound the reporting of AEs. Methods: We collected a unique dataset consisting of 11,515 self-reported Sputnik V vaccine AEs posted on the Telegram group, and we utilized natural language processing methods to extract AEs. Specifically, we performed multilabel classifications using the deep neural language model Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) “DeepPavlov,” which was pretrained on a Russian language corpus and applied to the Telegram messages. The resulting area under the curve score was 0.991. We chose symptom classes that represented the following AEs: fever, pain, chills, fatigue, nausea/vomiting, headache, insomnia, lymph node enlargement, erythema, pruritus, swelling, and diarrhea. Results: Telegram users complained mostly about pain (5461/11,515, 47.43%), fever (5363/11,515, 46.57%), fatigue (3862/11,515, 33.54%), and headache (2855/11,515, 24.79%). Women reported more AEs than men (1.2-fold, P<.001). In addition, there were more AEs from the first dose than from the second dose (1.1-fold, P<.001), and the number of AEs decreased with age (β=.05 per year, P<.001). The results also showed that Sputnik V AEs were more similar to other vector vaccines (132 units) than with messenger RNA vaccines (241 units) according to the average Euclidean distance between the vectors of AE frequencies. Elderly Telegram users reported significantly more (5.6-fold on average) systemic AEs than their peers, according to the results of the phase 3 clinical trials published in The Lancet. However, the AEs reported in Telegram posts were consistent (Pearson correlation r=0.94, P=.02) with those reported in the Argentinian postmarketing AE registry. Conclusions: After the Sputnik V vaccination, Russian Telegram users reported mostly pain, fever, and fatigue. The Sputnik V AE profile was comparable with other vector COVID-19 vaccines. Discussion on social media could provide meaningful information about the AE profile of novel vaccines

Environmental factors associated with the prevalence of ESBL/AmpC-producing Escherichia coli in wild boar (Sus scrofa)

Antimicrobial resistances (AMR) in bacteria, such as ESBL/AmpC-producing E. coli, are a burden to human and animal health. This burden is mainly driven by the consumption and release of antimicrobial substances into the environment. The pollution and contamination of habitats by AMR in bacteria and antimicrobial substances can lead to the transmission of bacterial AMR to wildlife. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the transmission cycle of antibiotics and resistant bacteria between humans, and animals as well as their occurrences in the environment. Environmental factors associated with the occurrence of bacterial AMR in wildlife can lead to a better understanding of the distribution of bacterial AMR in humans and animals using One Health approaches. Here, we analyzed data gathered in the framework of the German zoonoses monitoring program in 2016 and 2020 using spatiotemporal statistics to identify relevant environmental factors (e.g., livestock density, climatic variables, and human density) in association with the spatial distribution of ESBL/AmpC-producing E. coli. For this purpose, we developed a generic data integration and analysis pipeline to link spatially explicit environmental factors to the monitoring data. Finally, we built a binomial generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) to determine the factors associated with the spatial distribution of ESBL/AmpC-producing E. coli. In 2016 and 2020, 807 fecal samples from hunted wild boar (Sus scrofa L.) were randomly taken in 13 federal states and selectively analyzed for ESBL/AmpC-producing E. coli. Forty-eight isolates were identified in 12 German federal states, with an overall prevalence of 6%. We observed an almost three times higher probability of ESBL/AmpC-producing E. coli isolates in wild boar in counties with high cattle densities (OR = 2.57, p ≤ 0.01). Furthermore, we identified a seasonal effect in areas with high precipitation during the off-hunting seasons (OR = 2.78, p = 0.025) and low precipitation throughout the years (OR = 0.42, p = 0.025). However, due to the low amount of identified isolates, confidence intervals were wide, indicating a high level of uncertainty. This suggests that further studies on smaller scales need to be conducted with multiannual data and improved metadata, e.g., on the location, the hunting procedure, and species characteristics to be collected during field sampling

Access to healthcare as an important moderating variable for understanding the geography of COVID-19 outcomes – preliminary insights from Poland

Introduction: Biases in the measurement of COVID-19 burden and the uncertainty in estimation of the corresponding epidemiologic indexes are known and common phenomena in infectious diseases. We investigated to what extent healthcare access (HCA)-related supply/demand interfered with the registered data on COVID-19 in Poland. Material and Methods: We ran a multiple linear regression model with interactions to explain the geographic variation in seroprevalence, hospitalizations (on the voivodeship – NUTS-2 level) and current (beginning of the 4th wave of COVID cases – 15.09-21.11.2021) case notifications/crude mortality (on poviat – old NUTS-4 level). We took vaccination coverage and cumulative case notifications up to the so called 3rd wave as predictor variables and supply/demand (HCA) as moderating variables. Results: HCA with interacting terms (mainly demand) explained to the great extent the variance of current incidence and most of the variance in the current mortality rates. HCA (mainly supply) was significantly moderating cumulative case notifications until the 3rd wave of cases, thus explaining the variance in seroprevalence and hospitalization. Conclusion: Seeking causal relations between the vaccinationor infection-gained immunity level and the current infection dynamics could be misleading without understanding the socio-epidemiologic context such as the moderating role of HCA (sensu lato). After quantification, HCA could be incorporated into epidemiologic models for improved prediction of the actual disease burden

Matrix Metalloproteinases as Markers of Acute Inflammation Process in the Pulmonary Tuberculosis

The main factors of pathogenesis in the pulmonary tuberculosis are not only the bacterial virulence and sensitivity of the host immune system to the pathogen, but also the degree of destruction of the lung tissue. Such destruction processes lead to the development of caverns, in most cases requiring surgical interventions besides the drug therapy. Identification of special biochemical markers allowing to assess the necessity of surgery or therapy prolongation remains a challenge. We consider promising markers—metalloproteinases—analyzing the data obtained from patients with pulmonary tuberculosis infected by different strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We argue that the presence of drug-resistant strains in lungs leading to complicated clinical prognosis could be justified not only by the difference in medians of biomarkers concentration (as determined by the Mann–Whitney test for small samples), but also by the qualitative difference in their probability distributions (as detected by the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test). Our results and the provided raw data could be used for further development of precise biochemical data-based diagnostic and prognostic tools for pulmonary tuberculosis

Unravelling daily human mobility motifs

Human mobility is differentiated by time scales. While the mechanism for long time scales has been studied, the underlying mechanism on the daily scale is still unrevealed. Here, we uncover the mechanism responsible for the daily mobility patterns by analysing the temporal and spatial trajectories of thousands of persons as individual networks. Using the concept of motifs from network theory, we find only 17 unique networks are present in daily mobility and they follow simple rules. These networks, called here motifs, are sufficient to capture up to 90 per cent of the population in surveys and mobile phone datasets for different countries. Each individual exhibits a characteristic motif, which seems to be stable over several months. Consequently, daily human mobility can be reproduced by an analytically tractable framework for Markov chains by modelling periods of high-frequency trips followed by periods of lower activity as the key ingredient.Volkswagen FoundationNEC Corporation (Fund)Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Solomon Buchsbaum Research Fund)New England University Transportation Center (Year 23 grant