Exploring AMOC Regime Change over the Past Four Decades through Ocean Reanalyses

We examine North Atlantic climate variability using an ensemble of ocean reanalysis datasets to study the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) from 1979 to 2018. The dataset intercomparison shows good agreement for the latest period (1995–2018) for AMOC dynamics, characterized by a weaker overturning circulation after 1995 and a more intense one during 1979–1995, with varying intensity across the various datasets. The correlation between leading empirical orthogonal functions suggests that the AMOC weakening has connections with cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature (SST) and lower (higher) ocean heat content in the subpolar (subtropical) gyre in the North Atlantic. Barotropic stream function and Gulf Stream index reveal a shrinking subpolar gyre and an expanding subtropical gyre during the strong-AMOC period and vice versa, consistently with Labrador Sea deep convection reduction. We also observed an east–west salt redistribution between the two periods. Additional analyses show that the AMOC variability is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation phase change around 1995. One of the datasets included in the comparison shows an overestimation of AMOC variability, notwithstanding the model SST bias reduction via ERA-Interim flux adjustments: further studies with a set of numerical experiments will help explain this behavior

The SST multidecadal variability in the Atlantic-Mediterranean region and its relation to AMO

Abstract Two sea surface temperature (SST) time series, the Extended Reconstructed SST version 3 (ERSST.v3) and the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST), are used to investigate SST multidecadal variability in the Mediterranean Sea and to explore possible connections with other regions of the global ocean. The consistency between these two time series and the original International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Dataset version 2.5 (ICOADS 2.5) over the Mediterranean Sea is investigated, evaluating differences from monthly to multidecadal scales. From annual to longer time scales, the two time series consistently describe the same trends and multidecadal oscillations and agree with Mediterranean ICOADS SSTs. At monthly time scales the two time series are less consistent with each other because of the evident annual cycle that characterizes their difference. The subsequent analysis of the Mediterranean annual SST time series, based on lagged-correlation analysis, multitaper method (MTM), and singular spectral analysis (SSA), revealed the presence of a significant oscillation with a period of about 70 yr, very close to that of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). An extension of the analysis to other World Ocean regions confirmed that the predominance of this multidecadal signal with respect to longer period trends is a unique feature of the Mediterranean and North Atlantic Ocean, where it reaches its maximum at subpolar latitudes. Signatures of multidecadal oscillations are also found in the global SST time series after removing centennial and longer-term components. The analysis also reveals that Mediterranean SST and North Atlantic indices are significantly correlated and coherent for periods longer than about 40 yr. For time scales in the range 40–55 yr the coherence between the Mediterranean and subpolar gyre temperatures is higher than the coherence between the Mediterranean SST and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or AMO. Finally, the results of the analysis are discussed in the light of possible climate mechanisms that can couple the Mediterranean Sea with the North Atlantic and the Global Ocean

North Atlantic MOC variability and the Mediterranean Outflow: A box-model study

A simple box-model is used to investigate the effect of intermediate level heat/freshwater fluxes on the variability of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a simple representation of the spreading of the Mediterranean Outflow Water in the North Atlantic. We identify an internal advective feedback affecting the amplitude of the thermohaline oscillations. When a salinity gradient is maintained in the ocean interior the oscillations are amplified. Instead, if the intermediate level fluxes are spread in the ocean deep layers, the model variability is reduced. We suggest that this mechanism may be relevant for climate variability on interdecadal timescales

Thermohaline circulation sensitivity to intermediate‐level anomalies

A two-dimensional Boussinesq ocean model has been used to investigate the effect ofintermediate-level thermal and saline anomalies on the known multiple equilibria structure ofthe thermohaline circulation. These anomalies are taken as a crude representation of theMediterranean outflow in the Atlantic Ocean. The associated perturbation drives the systemtowards an overturning which resembles the present average Atlantic thermohaline circulation.The sensitivity to the depth at which the anomaly is placed is also investigated. We found thatnear-surface anomalies are more efficient in affecting the structure of the equilibria.DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.2002.01284.

Forecasting Operation Metrics for Virtualized Network Functions

Network Function Virtualization (NFV) is the key technology that allows modern network operators to provide flexible and efficient services, by leveraging on general-purpose private cloud infrastructures. In this work, we investigate the performance of a number of metric forecasting techniques based on machine learning and artificial intelligence, and provide insights on how they can support the decisions of NFV operation teams. Our analysis focuses on both infrastructure-level and service-level metrics. The former can be fetched directly from the monitoring system of an NFV infrastructure, whereas the latter are typically provided by the monitoring components of the individual virtualized network functions. Our selected forecasting techniques are experimentally evaluated using real-life data, exported from a production environment deployed within some Vodafone NFV data centers. The results show what the compared techniques can achieve in terms of the forecasting accuracy and computational cost required to train them on production data

Mediterranean water cycle changes: transition to drier 21st century conditions in observations and CMIP3 simulations

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Thin-shell plastic lenses for space and laboratory applications

We have identified an inexpensive, readily available, mechanically stable, extremely smooth, elastic, and mechanically uniform plastic suitable for thin film X-ray optics. Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) is easily deformed without losing its elastic properties or surface smoothness. Most important, PET can be coated with mono- or multilayers that reflect X-rays at grazing incidence. We have used these properties to produce X-ray optics made either as a concentric nest of cylinders or as a spiral. We have produced accurately formed shells in precisely machined vacuum mandresl or used a pin and wheel structure to form a continuously wound spiral. The wide range of medical, industrial and scientific applications for our technology includes: a monochromatic X-ray collimater for medical diagnostics, a relay optic to transport an X-ray beam from the target in a scanning electron microscop0e to a lithium-drifted silicon and microcalorimeter detectors and a satellite mounted telescope to collect celestial X-rays. A wide variety of mono- and multilayer coatings allow X-rays up to ~100 keV to be reflected. Our paper presents data from a variety of diagnostic measurements on the properties of the PET foil and imaging results form single- and multi-shell lenses

Destabilization of the thermohaline circulation by transient perturbations to the hydrological cycle

We reconsider the problem of the stability of the thermohaline circulation as described by a two-dimensional Boussinesq model with mixed boundary conditions. We determine how the stability properties of the system depend on the intensity of the hydrological cycle. We define a two-dimensional parameters' space descriptive of the hydrology of the system and determine, by considering suitable quasi-static perturbations, a bounded region where multiple equilibria of the system are realized. We then focus on how the response of the system to finite-amplitude surface freshwater forcings depends on their rate of increase. We show that it is possible to define a robust separation between slow and fast regimes of forcing. Such separation is obtained by singling out an estimate of the critical growth rate for the anomalous forcing, which can be related to the characteristic advective time scale of the system.Comment: 37 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Clim. Dy

Sea surface temperature intercomparison in the framework of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

A joint effort between the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and the Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) has been dedicated to an intercomparison study of eight global gap-free Sea Surface Temperature (SST) products to assess their accurate representation of the SST relevant to climate analysis. In general, all SST products show consistent spatial patterns and temporal variability during the overlapping time period (2003-2018). The main differences between each product are located in western boundary current and Antarctic Circumpolar Current regions. Linear trends display consistent SST spatial patterns among all products and exhibit a strong warming trend from 2012 to 2018 with the Pacific Ocean basin as the main contributor. SST discrepancy between all SST products is very small compared to the significant warming trend. Spatial power spectral density shows that the interpolation into 1o spatial resolution has negligible impacts on our results. The global mean SST time series reveals larger differences among all SST products during the early period of the satellite era (1982-2002) when there were fewer observations, indicating that the observation frequency is the main constraint of the SST climatology. The maturity matrix scores, which present the maturity of each product in terms of documentation, storage, and dissemination but not the scientific quality, demonstrate that ESA-CCI and OSTIA SST are well documented for users' convenience. Improvements could be made for MGDSST and BoM SST. Finally, we have recommended that these SST products can be used for fundamental climate applications and climate studies (e.g. El Nino)