Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Brazil: Seasonal travelling waves and determinants of regional synchrony.

Dengue continues to be the most important vector-borne viral disease globally and in Brazil, where more than 1.4 million cases and over 500 deaths were reported in 2016. Mosquito control programmes and other interventions have not stopped the alarming trend of increasingly large epidemics in the past few years. Here, we analyzed monthly dengue cases reported in Brazil between 2001 and 2016 to better characterise the key drivers of dengue epidemics. Spatio-temporal analysis revealed recurring travelling waves of disease occurrence. Using wavelet methods, we characterised the average seasonal pattern of dengue in Brazil, which starts in the western states of Acre and Rondônia, then travels eastward to the coast before reaching the northeast of the country. Only two states in the north of Brazil (Roraima and Amapá) did not follow the countrywide pattern and had inconsistent timing of dengue epidemics throughout the study period. We also explored epidemic synchrony and timing of annual dengue cycles in Brazilian regions. Using gravity style models combined with climate factors, we showed that both human mobility and vector ecology contribute to spatial patterns of dengue occurrence. This study offers a characterization of the spatial dynamics of dengue in Brazil and its drivers, which could inform intervention strategies against dengue and other arboviruses

Drug resistance mutations in HIV:new bioinformatics approaches and challenges

International audienceDrug resistance mutations appear in HIV under treatment pressure. Resistant variants can be transmitted to treatmentnaive individuals, which can lead to rapid virological failure and can limit treatment options. Consequently, quantifying the prevalence, emergence and transmission of drug resistance is critical to effectively treating patients and to shape health policies. We review recent bioinformatics developments and in particular describe: (1) the machine learning approaches intended to predict and explain the level of resistance of HIV variants from their sequence data; (2) the phylogenetic methods used to survey the emergence and dynamics of resistant HIV transmission clusters; (3) the impact of deep sequencing in studying within-host and between-host genetic diversity of HIV variants, notably regarding minority resistant variants

The burden of dengue: Jundiaí, Brazil -January 2010

Objective: To study the antibody prevalence against dengue in the municipality of Jundiaí, São Paulo, Brazil, due to the low number of official confirmed autochthonous cases. Methods: A serological study on dengue infection was conducted during January 2010 and previous reports on dengue and entomological surveillance during that period were reviewed. Results: A prevalence of 7.8% IgG positive (68:876) was found. Furthermore, based on the detection of IgM antibodies in five samples, it was observed that the incidence of dengue in the city at the time of the survey contrasts with the absence of notifications by local health authorities over the same period of time. Conclusion: These results highlight the discrepancies between the actual and the detected number of dengue infections, possibly due to significant numbers of asymptomatic infections aggravated by difficulties with dengue clinical diagnosis. Keyword

Worldwide spread of Dengue virus type 1

BACKGROUND:\ud DENV-1 is one of the four viral serotypes that causes Dengue, the most common mosquito-borne viral disease of humans. The prevalence of these viruses has grown in recent decades and is now present in more than 100 countries. Limited studies document the spread of DENV-1 over the world despite its importance for human health.\ud \ud METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:\ud We used representative DENV-1 envelope gene sequences to unravel the dynamics of viral diffusion under a Bayesian phylogeographic approach. Data included strains from 45 distinct geographic locations isolated from 1944 to 2009. The estimated mean rate of nucleotide substitution was 6.56 × 10⁻⁴ substitutions/site/year. The larger genotypes (I, IV and V) had a distinctive phylogenetic structure and since 1990 they experienced effective population size oscillations. Thailand and Indonesia represented the main sources of strains for neighboring countries. Besides, Asia broadcast lineages into the Americas and the Pacific region that diverged in isolation. Also, a transmission network analysis revealed the pivotal role of Indochina in the global diffusion of DENV-1 and of the Caribbean in the diffusion over the Americas.\ud \ud CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:\ud The study summarizes the spatiotemporal DENV-1 worldwide spread that may help disease control.FAPESP (Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, 2010/19059-7)FAPESP (Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo, 2011/17071-2)CNP

Phylogenetic interpretation during outbreaks requires caution.

How viruses are related, and how they have evolved and spread over time, can be investigated using phylogenetics. Here, we set out how genomic analyses should be used during an epidemic and propose that phylogenetic insights from the early stages of an outbreak should heed all of the available epidemiological information

Number of HIV-1 founder variants is determined by the recency of the source partner infection

During sexual transmission, the high genetic diversity of HIV-1 within an individual is frequently reduced to one founder variant that initiates infection. Understanding the drivers of this bottleneck is crucial to developing effective infection control strategies. Little is known about the importance of the source partner during this bottleneck. To test the hypothesis that the source partner affects the number of HIV founder variants, we developed a phylodynamic model calibrated using genetic and epidemiological data on all existing transmission pairs for whom the direction of transmission and the infection stage of the source partner are known. Our results suggest that acquiring infection from someone in the acute (early) stage of infection increases the risk of multiple-founder variant transmission compared with acquiring infection from someone in the chronic (later) stage of infection. This study provides the first direct test of source partner characteristics to explain the low frequency of multiple-founder strain infections

Dengue Virus Type 3 Adaptive Changes during Epidemics in Sao Jose de Rio Preto, Brazil, 2006–2007

Global dengue virus spread in tropical and sub-tropical regions has become a major international public health concern. It is evident that DENV genetic diversity plays a significant role in the immunopathology of the disease and that the identification of polymorphisms associated with adaptive responses is important for vaccine development. The investigation of naturally occurring genomic variants may play an important role in the comprehension of different adaptive strategies used by these mutants to evade the human immune system. In order to elucidate this role we sequenced the complete polyprotein-coding region of thirty-three DENV-3 isolates to characterize variants circulating under high endemicity in the city of Sao Jose de Rio Preto, Brazil, during the onset of the 2006-07 epidemic. By inferring the evolutionary history on a local-scale and estimating rates of synonymous (dS) and nonsynonimous (dN) substitutions, we have documented at least two different introductions of DENV-3 into the city and detected 10 polymorphic codon sites under significant positive selection (dN/dS > 1) and 8 under significant purifying selection (dN/dS < 1). We found several polymorphic amino acid coding sites in the envelope (15), NS1 (17), NS2A (11), and NS5 (24) genes, which suggests that these genes may be experiencing relatively recent adaptive changes. Furthermore, some polymorphisms correlated with changes in the immunogenicity of several epitopes. Our study highlights the existence of significant and informative DENV variability at the spatio-temporal scale of an urban outbreak

Inferring the multiplicity of founder variants initiating HIV-1 infection:a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: HIV-1 infections initiated by multiple founder variants are characterised by a higher viral load and a worse clinical prognosis than those initiated with single founder variants, yet little is known about the routes of exposure through which transmission of multiple founder variants is most probable. Here we used individual patient data to calculate the probability of multiple founders stratified by route of HIV exposure and study methodology. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that estimated founder variant multiplicity in HIV-1 infection, searching MEDLINE, Embase, and Global Health databases for papers published between Jan 1, 1990, and Sept 14, 2020. Eligible studies must have reported original estimates of founder variant multiplicity in people with acute or early HIV-1 infections, have clearly detailed the methods used, and reported the route of exposure. Studies were excluded if they reported data concerning people living with HIV-1 who had known or suspected superinfection, who were documented as having received pre-exposure prophylaxis, or if the transmitting partner was known to be receiving antiretroviral treatment. Individual patient data were collated from all studies, with authors contacted if these data were not publicly available. We applied logistic meta-regression to these data to estimate the probability that an HIV infection is initiated by multiple founder variants. We calculated a pooled estimate using a random effects model, subsequently stratifying this estimate across exposure routes in a univariable analysis. We then extended our model to adjust for different study methods in a multivariable analysis, recalculating estimates across the exposure routes. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020202672. FINDINGS: We included 70 publications in our analysis, comprising 1657 individual patients. Our pooled estimate of the probability that an infection is initiated by multiple founder variants was 0·25 (95% CI 0·21-0·29), with moderate heterogeneity (Q=132·3, p<0·0001, I2=64·2%). Our multivariable analysis uncovered differences in the probability of multiple variant infection by exposure route. Relative to a baseline of male-to-female transmission, the predicted probability for female-to-male multiple variant transmission was significantly lower at 0·13 (95% CI 0·08-0·20), and the probabilities were significantly higher for transmissions in people who inject drugs (0·37 [0·24-0·53]) and men who have sex with men (0·30 [0·33-0·40]). There was no significant difference in the probability of multiple variant transmission between male-to-female transmission (0·21 [0·14-0·31]), post-partum transmission (0·18 [0·03-0·57]), pre-partum transmission (0·17 [0·08-0·33]), and intra-partum transmission (0·27 [0·14-0·45]). INTERPRETATION: We identified that transmissions in people who inject drugs and men who have sex with men are significantly more likely to result in an infection initiated by multiple founder variants, and female-to-male infections are significantly less probable. Quantifying how the routes of HIV infection affect the transmission of multiple variants allows us to better understand how the evolution and epidemiology of HIV-1 determine clinical outcomes. FUNDING: Medical Research Council Precision Medicine Doctoral Training Programme and a European Research Council Starting Grant

Noninvasive western lowland gorilla's health monitoring: A decade of simian immunodeficiency virus surveillance in southern Cameroon.

Simian immunodeficiency virus (SIVgor) causes persistent infection in critically endangered western lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) from west central Africa. SIVgor is closely related to chimpanzee and human immunodeficiency viruses (SIVcpz and HIV-1, respectively). We established a noninvasive method that does not interfere with gorillas' natural behaviour to provide wildlife pathogen surveillance and health monitoring for conservation. A total of 1,665 geo-referenced fecal samples were collected at regular intervals from February 2006 to December 2014 (123 sampling days) in the Campo-Ma'an National Park (southwest Cameroon). Host genotyping was performed using microsatellite markers, SIVgor infection was identified by serology and genetic amplification was attempted on seropositive individuals. We identified at least 125 distinct gorillas, 50 were resampled (observed 3.5 times in average) and 38 were SIVgor+ (seven individuals were seroconverters). Six groups of gorillas were identified based on the overlapping occurrence of individuals with apparent high rates of gene flow. We obtained SIVgor genetic sequences from 25 of 38 seropositive genotyped gorillas and showed that the virus follows exponential growth dynamics under a strict molecular clock. Different groups shared SIVgor lineages demonstrating intergroup viral spread and recapture of positive individuals illustrated intra-host viral evolution. Relatedness and relationship genetic analysis of gorillas together with Bayesian phylogenetic inference of SIVgor provided evidence suggestive of vertical transmission. In conclusion, we provided insights into gorilla social dynamics and SIVgor evolution and emphasized the utility of noninvasive sampling to study wildlife health populations. These findings contribute to prospective planning for better monitoring and conservation