Measurement of Statistical Evidence: Picking Up Where Hacking (et al.) Left Off

Hacking’s (1965) Law of Likelihood says – paraphrasing– that data support hypothesis H1 over hypothesis H2 whenever the likelihood ratio (LR) for H1 over H2 exceeds 1. But Hacking (1972) noted a seemingly fatal flaw in the LR itself: it cannot be interpreted as the degree of “evidential significance” across applications. I agree with Hacking about the problem, but I don’t believe the condition is incurable. I argue here that the LR can be properly calibrated with respect to the underlying evidence, and I sketch the rudiments of a methodology for so doing

Two novel quantitative trait linkage analysis statistics based on the posterior probability of linkage: application to the COGA families

BACKGROUND: In this paper we apply two novel quantitative trait linkage statistics based on the posterior probability of linkage (PPL) to chromosome 4 from the GAW 14 COGA dataset. Our approaches are advantageous since they use the full likelihood, use full phenotypic information, do not assume normality at the population level or require population/sample parameter estimates; and like other forms of the PPL, they are specifically tailored to accumulate linkage evidence, either for or against linkage, across multiple sets of heterogeneous data. RESULTS: The first statistic uses all quantitative trait (QT) information from the pedigree (QT-posterior probability of linkage, PPL); we applied the QT-PPL to the trait ecb21 (resting electroencephalogram). The second statistic allows simultaneous incorporation of dichotomous trait data into the QT analysis via a threshold model (QTT-PPL); we applied the QTT-PPL to combined data on ecb21 and ALDX1. We obtained a QT-PPL of 96% at GABRB1 and a QT-PPL of 18% at FABP2 while the QTT-PPL was 4% and 2% at the same two loci, respectively. By comparison, the variance-components (VC) method, as implemented in SOLAR, yielded multipoint VC LOD scores of 2.05 and 2.21 at GABRB1 and FABP2, respectively; no other VC LODs were greater than 2. CONCLUSION: The QTT-PPL was only 4% at GABARB1, which might suggest that the underlying ecb21 gene does not also cause ALDX1, although features of the data complicate interpretation of this result

Measurement of Statistical Evidence: Picking Up Where Hacking (et al.) Left Off

Hacking’s (1965) Law of Likelihood says – paraphrasing– that data support hypothesis H1 over hypothesis H2 whenever the likelihood ratio (LR) for H1 over H2 exceeds 1. But Hacking (1972) noted a seemingly fatal flaw in the LR itself: it cannot be interpreted as the degree of “evidential significance” across applications. I agree with Hacking about the problem, but I don’t believe the condition is incurable. I argue here that the LR can be properly calibrated with respect to the underlying evidence, and I sketch the rudiments of a methodology for so doing

MLIP: using multiple processors to compute the posterior probability of linkage

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Localization of complex traits by genetic linkage analysis may involve exploration of a vast multidimensional parameter space. The posterior probability of linkage (PPL), a class of statistics for complex trait genetic mapping in humans, is designed to model the trait model complexity represented by the multidimensional parameter space in a mathematically rigorous fashion. However, the method requires the evaluation of integrals with no functional form, making it difficult to compute, and thus further test, develop and apply. This paper describes MLIP, a multiprocessor two-point genetic linkage analysis system that supports statistical calculations, such as the PPL, based on the full parameter space implicit in the linkage likelihood.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The fundamental question we address here is whether the use of additional processors effectively reduces total computation time for a PPL calculation. We use a variety of data – both simulated and real – to explore the question "how close can we get?" to linear speedup. Empirical results of our study show that MLIP does significantly speed up two-point log-likelihood ratio calculations over a grid space of model parameters.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Observed performance of the program is dependent on characteristics of the data including granularity of the parameter grid space being explored and pedigree size and structure. While work continues to further optimize performance, the current version of the program can already be used to efficiently compute the PPL. Thanks to MLIP, full multidimensional genome scans are now routinely being completed at our centers with runtimes on the order of days, not months or years.</p

Genome-wide linkage analysis of blood pressure under locus heterogeneity

We describe a method for mapping quantitative trait loci that allows for locus heterogeneity. A genome-wide linkage analysis of blood pressure was performed using sib-pair data from the Framingham Heart Study. Evidence of linkage was found on four markers (GATA89G08, GATA23D06, GATA14E09, and 049xd2) at a significance level of 0.01. Two of them (GATA14E09 and 049xd2) seem to overlap with linkage signals reported previously, while the other two are not linked to any known signals

Absolutely 0 Evidence

Statistical analysis is often used to evaluate the strength of evidence for or against scientific hypotheses. Here we consider evidence measurement from the point of view of representational measurement theory, focusing in particular on the 0-points of measurement scales. We argue that a properly calibrated evidence measure will need to count up from absolute 0, in a sense to be defined, and that this 0-point is likely to be something other than what one might have expected. This suggests the need for a new theory of statistical evidence in the context of which calibrated evidence measurement becomes tractable

Performance comparison of two-point linkage methods using microsatellite markers flanking known disease locations

The Genetic Analysis Workshop 14 simulated data presents an interesting, challenging, and plausible example of a complex disease interaction in a dataset. This paper summarizes the ease of detection for each of the simulated Kofendrerd Personality Disorder (KPD) genes across all of the replicates for five standard linkage statistics. Using the KPD affection status, we have analyzed the microsatellite markers flanking each of the disease genes, plus an additional 2 markers that were not linked to any of the disease loci. All markers were analyzed using the following two-point linkage methods: 1) a MMLS, which is a standard admixture LOD score maximized over θ, α, and mode of inheritance, 2) a MLS calculated by GENEHUNTER, 3) the Kong and Cox LOD score as computed by MERLIN, 4) a MOD score (standard heterogeneity LOD maximized over θ, α, and a grid of genetic model parameters), and 5) the PPL, a Bayesian statistic that directly measures the strength of evidence for linkage to a marker. All of the major loci (D1–D4) were detectable with varying probabilities in the different populations. However, the modifier genes (D5 and D6) were difficult to detect, with similar distributions under the null and alternative across populations and statistics. The pooling of the four datasets in each replicate (n = 350 pedigrees) greatly improved the chance of detecting the major genes using all five methods, but failed to increase the chance to detect D5 and D6