Making hurricane track data accessible

Our interactive tool allows the exploration, validation and presentation of hundreds of years of dynamically simulated storm tracks. The tracks were generated as part of a research project to improve the risk assessment of tropical storm damage by the insurance industry. The main impact of the tool is that exploratory interactive visualisation is now being used by the storm track modellers to (a) validate and improve model outputs, (b) discuss outputs with their peers (c) obtain a better understanding of the formation and development of tropical storms and (d) present examples of the behaviour of storms under different conditions to the insurance industry and others. Insights into tropical storm behaviour have been obtained and these insights are being articulated

Designing Interactive Graphics for Validating and Interpreting Storm Track Model Outputs

We report on some initial work in which we designed interactive graphics to help climate scientists identify and extract good examples of simulated storm-tracks from a large dataset to help disseminate information to various audiences. A side-effect of this work was that the exploratory potential offered by the interactive graphics helped our climate scientist coauthors validate and interpret their data in a way that was not previously possible for them. We are extending this work to provide support for a wider range of validation and interpretative tasks, with a focus on answering questions of relevance to the insurance industry. We describe our collaborative approach, that draws on ideas from ’patchwork prototyping’ [2, 5] in which a rapid iterative process of design, implementation and testing, is used to help provide the functionality to support a set of ‘user stories’

Visualization design and verification of Ada tasking using timing diagrams

The use of timing diagrams is recommended in the design and testing of multi-task Ada programs. By displaying the task states vs. time, timing diagrams can portray the simultaneous threads of data flow and control which characterize tasking programs. This description of the system's dynamic behavior from conception to testing is a necessary adjunct to other graphical techniques, such as structure charts, which essentially give a static view of the system. A series of steps is recommended which incorporates timing diagrams into the design process. Finally, a description is provided of a prototype Ada Execution Analyzer (AEA) which automates the production of timing diagrams from VAX/Ada debugger output

Energy Levels of the Coaxial Internal Rotator with Rectangular Potential Function

For the coaxial internal rotator with rectangular potential function and freely variable valley breadth at constant periodicity, conditions are specified for an infinite number of points at which the borders of consecutive bands of energy levels must be exactly degenerate. As the valley breadth is changed through a degeneracy, the level of one symmetry relative to the potential function moves from the upper to the lower band of energy levels, or vice versa.It follows that in the rotational region above the potential maximum the levels at the band limits can repeatedly cross and re‐cross when the potential maximum is increased with all other factors constant.Similar behavior will presumably occur with other potential functions.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/70914/2/JCPSA6-25-6-1180-1.pd

Complex scattering within D" observed on the very dense Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment passive array

Several seismic phases that scattered within a few hundred kilometers of the base of the mantle are observed in a very dense seismic section. The Los Angeles Region Seismic Experiment passive phase array was composed of 88 seismometers placed along a 175 km profile. Records from two deep earthquakes in Tonga and one earthquake near Honshu, Japan show a secondary arrival between clear P and PcP arrivals. Modeling with layered structures shows that the Tonga and Honshu seismic sections are consistent with an increase in seismic velocity 140 and 240 km above the core-mantle boundary, respectively, and a ≃10-km thick low-velocity zone at the base of the mantle beneath a region in the mid Pacific. Several of these arrivals are not coherent enough to appear in higher resolution stacks from the much larger Southern California Seismic Network. This experiment illustrates that fine-scale passive array data can reveal small-scale deep Earth structure invisible to larger-scale seismic networks

Progressive Metamorphism of Pelitic, Carbonate, and Basic Rocks in South-Central Connecticut

Guidebook for field trips in Connecticut: New England Intercollegiate Geological Conference 60th annual meeting, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, October 25-27, 1968: Trip D-

Inspiral, merger and ringdown of unequal mass black hole binaries: a multipolar analysis

We study the inspiral, merger and ringdown of unequal mass black hole binaries by analyzing a catalogue of numerical simulations for seven different values of the mass ratio (from q=M2/M1=1 to q=4). We compare numerical and Post-Newtonian results by projecting the waveforms onto spin-weighted spherical harmonics, characterized by angular indices (l,m). We find that the Post-Newtonian equations predict remarkably well the relation between the wave amplitude and the orbital frequency for each (l,m), and that the convergence of the Post-Newtonian series to the numerical results is non-monotonic. To leading order the total energy emitted in the merger phase scales like eta^2 and the spin of the final black hole scales like eta, where eta=q/(1+q)^2 is the symmetric mass ratio. We study the multipolar distribution of the radiation, finding that odd-l multipoles are suppressed in the equal mass limit. Higher multipoles carry a larger fraction of the total energy as q increases. We introduce and compare three different definitions for the ringdown starting time. Applying linear estimation methods (the so-called Prony methods) to the ringdown phase, we find resolution-dependent time variations in the fitted parameters of the final black hole. By cross-correlating information from different multipoles we show that ringdown fits can be used to obtain precise estimates of the mass and spin of the final black hole, which are in remarkable agreement with energy and angular momentum balance calculations.Comment: 51 pages, 28 figures, 16 tables. Many improvements throughout the text in response to the referee report. The calculation of multipolar components in Appendix A now uses slightly different conventions. Matches version in press in PR

Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in a multiresolution ensemble of atmosphere-only and fully coupled global Climate Models

Tropical cyclones undergo extratropical transition (ET) in every ocean basin. Projected changes in ET frequency under climate change are uncertain and differ between basins, so multimodel studies are required to establish confidence. We used a feature-tracking algorithm to identify tropical cyclones and performed cyclone phase-space analysis to identify ET in an ensemble of atmosphere-only and fully coupled global model simulations, run at various resolutions under historical (1950–2014) and future (2015–50) forcing. Historical simulations were evaluated against five reanalyses for 1979–2018. Considering ET globally, ensemble-mean biases in track and genesis densities are reduced in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific when horizontal resolution is increased from ∼100 to ∼25 km. At high resolution, multi-reanalysis-mean climatological ET frequencies across most ocean basins as well as basins’ seasonal cycles are reproduced better than in low-resolution models. Skill in simulating historical ET interannual variability in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific is ∼0.3, which is lower than for all tropical cyclones. Models project an increase in ET frequency in the North Atlantic and a decrease in the western North Pacific. We explain these opposing responses by secular change in ET seasonality and an increase in lower-tropospheric, pre-ET warm-core strength, both of which are largely unique to the North Atlantic. Multimodel consensus about climate change responses is clearer for frequency metrics than for intensity metrics. These results help clarify the role of model resolution in simulating ET and help quantify uncertainty surrounding ET in a warming climate.All authors received financial support from the PRIMAVERA project (European Commission Horizon2020 Grant Agreement 641727) with data access via JASMIN (https://jasmin.ac.uk) supported by IS-ENES3 (Grant Agreement 824084). AJB also received support from National Environmental Research Council (NERC) national capability grant for the North Atlantic Climate System: Integrated study (ACSIS) program (Grants NE/N018001/1, NE/N018044/1, NE/N018028/1, and NE/N018052/1). KL received funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) through JPI Climate/JPI Oceans NextG-Climate Science-ROADMAP (FKZ: 01LP2002A). The authors are grateful to the editor and to three anonymous reviewers, whose recommendations improved this paper. AJB, PLV, RJH, and MJR conceived the study. Simulations were performed by MJR, ET, KL, CDR, and LT. Output data were managed by JS. MJR performed the cyclone tracking. BV computed the Eady growth rate. AJB undertook cyclone phase-space analysis and all other data analyses, figure preparation, and wrote the manuscript. All authors provided input in interpreting results and approved the final manuscript. The authors declare no competing interests.Peer Reviewed"Article signat per 13 autors/es: Alexander J. Baker, Malcolm J. Roberts, Pier Luigi Vidale, Kevin I. Hodges, Jon Seddon, Benoît Vannière, Rein J. Haarsma, Reinhard Schiemann, Dimitris Kapetanakis, Etienne Tourigny, Katja Lohmann, Christopher D. Roberts, and Laurent Terray"Postprint (published version

Technology to aid the analysis of large-volume multi-institute climate model output at a central analysis facility (PRIMAVERA Data Management Tool V2.10)

The PRIMAVERA project aimed to develop a new generation of advanced and well-evaluated high-resolution global climate models. As part of PRIMAVERA, seven different climate models were run in both standard and higher-resolution configurations, with common initial conditions and forcings to form a multi-model ensemble. The ensemble simulations were run on high-performance computers across Europe and generated approximately 1.6 PiB (pebibytes) of output. To allow the data from all models to be analysed at this scale, PRIMAVERA scientists were encouraged to bring their analysis to the data. All data were transferred to a central analysis facility (CAF), in this case the JASMIN super-data-cluster, where it was catalogued and details made available to users using the web interface of the PRIMAVERA Data Management Tool (DMT). Users from across the project were able to query the available data using the DMT and then access it at the CAF. Here we describe how the PRIMAVERA project used the CAF's facilities to enable users to analyse this multi-model dataset. We believe that PRIMAVERA's experience using a CAF demonstrates how similar, multi-institute, big-data projects can efficiently share, organise and analyse large volumes of data.</p

How well are Tropical Cyclones represented in reanalysis data sets?

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are identified and tracked in six recent reanalysis data sets and compared with those from the IBTrACS best track archive. Results indicate that nearly every cyclone present in IBTrACS over the period 1979-2012 can be found in all six reanalyses using a tracking and matching approach. However, TC intensities are significantly under-represented in the reanalyses compared to the observations. Applying a typical objective TC identification scheme, it is found that the largest uncertainties in TC identification occur for the weaker storms; this is exacerbated by uncertainties in the observations for weak storms and lack of consistency in operational procedures. For example, it is unclear whether certain types of storms, such as tropical depressions, subtropical cyclones and monsoon depressions, are included in the best track data for all reporting agencies. There are definite improvements in how well TCs are represented in more recent, higher resolution reanalyses; in particular MERRA2 is comparable with the NCEP-CFSR and JRA55 reanalyses, which perform significantly better than the older MERRA reanalysis