Developing new tools to address the impact of climate change on the evolutionary and distributional history in plant lineages

Tesis doctoral inédita leída en la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias, Departamento de Biología. Fecha de lectura: 28-02-202

Biogeography Meets Niche Modeling: Inferring the Role of Deep Time Climate Change When Data Is Limited

Biogeography Meets Niche Modeling: Inferring the Role of Deep Time Climate Change When Data Is Limited. Geographic range shifts are one major organism response to climate change, especially if the rate of climate change is higher than that of species adaptation. Ecological niche models (ENM) and biogeographic inferences are often used in estimating the effects of climatic oscillations on species range dynamics. ENMs can be used to track climatic suitable areas over time but have often been limited to shallow timescales; biogeographic inference can reach greater evolutionary depth, but often lacks spatial resolution. This study presents a simple approach that treats them as independent and complementary sources of evidence, which, when used in partnership, can be employed to reconstruct geographic range shifts over deep evolutionary timescales. For testing this, we chose two extreme African disjunctions: Camptoloma (Scrophulariaceae) and Canarina (Campanulaceae), each comprising of three species disjunctly distributed in Macaronesia and eastern/southern Africa. Using inferred ancestral ranges in tandem with preindustrial and paleoclimate ENM hindcastings, we show that the disjunct pattern was the result of fragmentation and extinction events linked to Neogene aridification cycles. Our results highlight the importance of considering temporal resolution when building ENMs for rare endemics with small population sizes and restricted climatic tolerances such as Camptoloma, for which models built on averaged monthly variables were more informative than those based on annual bioclimatic variables. Additionally, we show that biogeographic information can be used as truncation threshold criteria for building ENMs in the distant past. Our approach is suitable when there is sparse sampling on species occurrences and associated patterns of genetic variation, such as in the case of ancient endemics with widely disjunct distributions as a result of climate change

Rare and widespread: integrating Bayesian MCMC approaches, Sanger sequencing and Hyb-Seq phylogenomics to reconstruct the origin of the enigmatic Rand Flora genus Camptoloma

Premise Genera that are widespread, with geographically discontinuous distributions and represented by few species, are intriguing. Is their achieved disjunct distribution recent or ancient in origin? Why are they species-poor? The Rand Flora is a continental-scale pattern in which closely related species appear codistributed in isolated regions over the continental margins of Africa. Genus Camptoloma (Scrophulariaceae) is the most notable example, comprising three species isolated from each other on the northwest, eastern, and southwest Africa. Methods We employed Sanger sequencing of nuclear and plastid markers, together with genomic target sequencing of 2190 low-copy nuclear genes, to infer interspecies relationships and the position of Camptoloma within Scrophulariaceae by using supermatrix and multispecies-coalescent approaches. Lineage divergence times and ancestral ranges were inferred with Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches. The population history was estimated with phylogeographic coalescent methods. Results Camptoloma rotundifolium, restricted to Southern Africa, was shown to be a sister species to the disjunct clade formed by C. canariense, endemic to the Canary Islands, and C. lyperiiflorum, distributed in the Horn of Africa–Southern Arabia. Camptoloma was inferred to be sister to the mostly South African tribes Teedieae and Buddlejeae. Stem divergence was dated in the Late Miocene, while the origin of the extant disjunction was inferred as Early Pliocene. Conclusions The current disjunct distribution of Camptoloma across Africa was likely the result of fragmentation and extinction and/or population bottlenecking events associated with historical aridification cycles during the Neogene; the pattern of species divergence, from south to north, is consistent with the “climatic refugia” Rand Flora hypothesis

Creating ecologically sound buildings by integrating ecology, architecture and computational design

1. Research is revealing an increasing number of positive effects of nature for humans. At the same time, biodiversity in cities, where most humans live, is often low or in decline. Tangible solutions are needed to increase urban biodiversity. 2. Architecture is a key discipline that has considerable influence on the built-up area of cities, thereby influencing urban biodiversity. In general, architects do not design for biodiversity. Conversely, urban conservation planning generally focuses on the limited space free of buildings and does not embrace architecture as an important discipline for the creation of urban green infrastructure. 3. In this paper, we argue that the promotion of biodiversity needs to become a key driving force of architectural design. This requires a new multi-species design paradigm that considers both human and non-human needs. Such a design approach needs to maintain the standards of the architectural profession, including the aim to increase the well-being of humans in buildings. Yet, it also needs to add other stakeholders, organisms such as animals, plants and even microbiota. New buildings designed for humans and other inhabitants can then increase biodiversity in cities and also increase the benefits that humans can derive from close proximity to nature. 4. We review the challenges that this new design approach poses for both architecture and ecology and show that multi-species-design goes beyond existing approaches in architecture and ecology. The new design approach needs to make ecological knowledge available to the architectural design process, enabling practitioners to find architectural solutions that can facilitate synergies from a multi-species perspective. 5. We propose that a first step in creating such a multi-species habitat is the design of buildings with an ecolope, a multi criteria-designed building envelope that takes into account the needs of diverse organisms. Because there is no framework to design such an ecolope, we illustrate how multi-species design needs to draw on knowledge from ecology, as well as architecture, and design computation. 6. We discuss how architectures designed via a multi-species approach can be an important step in establishing beneficial human-nature relationships in cities, and contribute to human well-being and biodiversity conservation.Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog

International collaborative study to assess cardiovascular risk and evaluate long-term health in cats with preclinical hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and apparently healthy cats:The REVEAL Study

Background: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is the most prevalent heart disorder in cats and principal cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Yet, the impact of preclinical disease is unresolved. Hypothesis/Objectives: Observational study to characterize cardiovascular morbidity and survival in cats with preclinical nonobstructive (HCM) and obstructive (HOCM) hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and in apparently healthy cats (AH). Animals: One thousand seven hundred and thirty client-owned cats (430 preclinical HCM; 578 preclinical HOCM; 722 AH). Methods: Retrospective multicenter, longitudinal, cohort study. Cats from 21 countries were followed through medical record review and owner or referring veterinarian interviews. Data were analyzed to compare long-term outcomes, incidence, and risk for congestive heart failure (CHF), arterial thromboembolism (ATE), and cardiovascular death. Results: During the study period, CHF, ATE, or both occurred in 30.5% and cardiovascular death in 27.9% of 1008 HCM/HOCM cats. Risk assessed at 1, 5, and 10 years after study entry was 7.0%/3.5%, 19.9%/9.7%, and 23.9%/11.3% for CHF/ATE, and 6.7%, 22.8%, and 28.3% for cardiovascular death, respectively. There were no statistically significant differences between HOCM compared with HCM for cardiovascular morbidity or mortality, time from diagnosis to development of morbidity, or cardiovascular survival. Cats that developed cardiovascular morbidity had short survival (mean \ub1 standard deviation, 1.3 \ub1 1.7 years). Overall, prolonged longevity was recorded in a minority of preclinical HCM/HOCM cats with 10% reaching 9-15 years. Conclusions and Clinical Importance: Preclinical HCM/HOCM is a global health problem of cats that carries substantial risk for CHF, ATE, and cardiovascular death. This finding underscores the need to identify therapies and monitoring strategies that decrease morbidity and mortality

Long-term Incidence and risk of noncardiovascular and all-cause mortality in apparently healthy cats and cats with preclinical hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Background Epidemiologic knowledge regarding noncardiovascular and all‐cause mortality in apparently healthy cats (AH) and cats with preclinical hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (pHCM) is limited, hindering development of evidence‐based healthcare guidelines. Objectives To characterize/compare incidence rates, risk, and survival associated with noncardiovascular and all‐cause mortality in AH and pHCM cats. Animals A total of 1730 client‐owned cats (722 AH, 1008 pHCM) from 21 countries. Methods Retrospective, multicenter, longitudinal, cohort study. Long‐term health data were extracted by medical record review and owner/referring veterinarian interviews. Results Noncardiovascular death occurred in 534 (30.9%) of 1730 cats observed up to 15.2 years. Proportion of noncardiovascular death did not differ significantly between cats that at study enrollment were AH or had pHCM (P = .48). Cancer, chronic kidney disease, and conditions characterized by chronic weight‐loss‐vomiting‐diarrhea‐anorexia were the most frequently recorded noncardiovascular causes of death. Incidence rates/risk of noncardiac death increased with age in AH and pHCM. All‐cause death proportions were greater in pHCM than AH (65% versus 40%, respectively; P < .001) because of higher cardiovascular mortality in pHCM cats. Comparing AH with pHCM, median survival (study entry to noncardiovascular death) did not differ (AH, 9.8 years; pHCM, 8.6 years; P = .10), but all‐cause survival was significantly shorter in pHCM (P = .0001). Conclusions and Clinical Importance All‐cause mortality was significantly greater in pHCM cats due to disease burden contributed by increased cardiovascular death superimposed upon noncardiovascular death

Exploring the power of Bayesian birth-death skyline models to detect mass extinction events from phylogenies with only extant taxa

Mass extinction events (MEEs), defined as significant losses of species diversity in significantly short time periods, have attracted the attention of biologists because of their link to major environmental change. MEEs have traditionally been studied through the fossil record, but the development of birth-death models has made it possible to detect their signature based on extant-taxa phylogenies. Most birth-death models consider MEEs as instantaneous events where a high proportion of species are simultaneously removed from the tree (“single pulse” approach), in contrast to the paleontological record, where MEEs have a time duration. Here, we explore the power of a Bayesian Birth-Death Skyline (BDSKY) model to detect the signature of MEEs through changes in extinction rates under a “time-slice” approach. In this approach, MEEs are time intervals where the extinction rate is greater than the speciation rate. Results showed BDSKY can detect and locate MEEs but that precision and accuracy depend on the phylogeny's size and MEE intensity. Comparisons of BDSKY with the single-pulse Bayesian model, CoMET, showed a similar frequency of Type II error and neither model exhibited Type I error. However, while CoMET performed better in detecting and locating MEEs for smaller phylogenies, BDSKY showed higher accuracy in estimating extinction and speciation rates.We thank three anonymous reviewers and the Associate Editor for their insightful comments. V.C. was funded by Ministerio de Econom´ıa y Competitividad MINECO Ph.D. (FPI) Fellowship BES-2013-065389, supervised by I.S. I.S. was funded by the Spanish Government and European Regional Development Fund, grant CGL2015-67849-P (MINECO/FEDER) and by Fundacion BBVA “Ayudas a Equipos de investigacion Ecolog´ıa y Biolog´ıa de la Conservacion,” Project G999088Q. T.S. is supported in part by the European Research Council under the 7th Framework Programme of the European Commission (PhyPD grant agreement number 335529). The authors also acknowledge the MINECO program “Ayudas de movilidad FPI” for funding a 4-month visit of V.C. to ETH Zurich, Basel, with T.S., which was the inspiration for this projec

Exploring the power of Bayesian birth‐death skyline models to detect mass extinction events from phylogenies with only extant taxa

Mass extinction events (MEEs), defined as significant losses of species diversity in significantly short time periods, have attracted the attention of biologists because of their link to major environmental change. MEEs have traditionally been studied through the fossil record, but the development of birth‐death models has made it possible to detect their signature based on extant‐taxa phylogenies. Most birth‐death models consider MEEs as instantaneous events where a high proportion of species are simultaneously removed from the tree (“single pulse” approach), in contrast to the paleontological record, where MEEs have a time duration. Here, we explore the power of a Bayesian Birth‐Death Skyline (BDSKY) model to detect the signature of MEEs through changes in extinction rates under a “time‐slice” approach. In this approach, MEEs are time intervals where the extinction rate is greater than the speciation rate. Results showed BDSKY can detect and locate MEEs but that precision and accuracy depend on the phylogeny's size and MEE intensity. Comparisons of BDSKY with the single‐pulse Bayesian model, CoMET, showed a similar frequency of Type II error and neither model exhibited Type I error. However, while CoMET performed better in detecting and locating MEEs for smaller phylogenies, BDSKY showed higher accuracy in estimating extinction and speciation rates

Data from: Exploring the power of Bayesian birth-death skyline models to detect mass extinction events from phylogenies with only extant taxa

Mass extinction events (MEEs), defined as significant losses of species diversity in significantly short time periods, have attracted the attention of biologists because of their link to major environmental change. MEEs have traditionally been studied through the fossil record, but the development of birth-death models has made it possible to detect their signature based on extant-taxa phylogenies. Most birth-death models consider MEEs as instantaneous events where a high proportion of species are simultaneously removed from the tree ("single pulse" approach), in contrast to the paleontological record, where MEEs have a time-duration. Here, we explore the power of a Bayesian Birth-Death Skyline (BDSKY) model to detect the signature of MEEs through changes in extinction rates under a "time-slice" approach. In this approach, MEEs are time intervals where the extinction rate is greater than the speciation rate. Results showed BDSKY can detect and locate MEEs but that precision and accuracy depend on phylogenies size and MEE intensity. Comparisons of BDSKY with the single-pulse Bayesian model, CoMET, showed a similar frequency of Type II error and neither model exhibited Type I error. However, while CoMET performed better in detecting and locating MEEs for smaller phylogenies, BDSKY showed higher accuracy in estimating extinction and speciation rates