Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

Streamwise turbulence modulation in non-uniform open-channel clay suspension flows

Cohesive sediment particles are ubiquitous in environmental flows. The cohesive properties of clay promote the formation of clay flocs and gels and relatively small suspended clay concentrations can enhance or suppress turbulence in a flow. Furthermore, flows are naturally non-uniform, varying in space and time, yet the dynamics of non-uniform open-channel clay suspension flows is poorly understood. For the first time, the adaptation time and length scales of non-uniform clay suspension flows were quantified using novel experiments with spatially varying but temporally uniform flow. Different levels of turbulence enhancement and attenuation were identified as the flow decelerates or accelerates. Results highlight that decelerating clay suspension flows crucially have a longer adaptation time than accelerating clay suspension flows. This is explained by the longer timescale required for the formation of bonds between cohesive particles in turbulence attenuated flows after deceleration than the rapid breakdown of bonds in turbulent flows after acceleration of clay suspension flows. This hysteresis is more pronounced for higher concentration decelerating flows that pass through a larger variety of clay flow types of turbulence enhancement and attenuation. These different adaptation time scales and associated clay flow type transitions are likely to affect clay flow dynamics in a variety of fluvial and submarine settings

Inadequacy of fluvial energetics for describing gravity current autosuspension

Gravity currents, such as sediment-laden turbidity currents, are ubiquitous natural flows that are driven by a density difference. Turbidity currents have provided vital motivation to advance understanding of this class of flows because their enigmatic long run-out and driving mechanisms are not properly understood. Extant models assume that material transport by gravity currents is dynamically similar to fluvial flows. Here, empirical research from different types of particle-driven gravity currents is integrated with our experimental data, to show that material transport is fundamentally different from fluvial systems. Contrary to current theory, buoyancy production is shown to have a non-linear dependence on available flow power, indicating an underestimation of the total kinetic energy lost from the mean flow. A revised energy budget directly implies that the mixing efficiency of gravity currents is enhanced

Prognosis of acute low back pain: design of a prospective inception cohort study

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines generally portray acute low back pain as a benign and self-limiting condition. However, evidence about the clinical course of acute low back pain is contradictory and the risk of subsequently developing chronic low back pain remains uncertain. There are few high quality prognosis studies and none that have measured pain, disability and return to work over a 12 month period. This study aims to provide the first estimates of the one year prognosis of acute low back pain (pain of less than 2 weeks duration) in patients consulting primary care practitioners. A secondary aim is to identify factors that are associated with the prognosis of low back pain. METHODS/DESIGN: The study is a prospective inception cohort study. Consecutive patients consulting general medical practitioners, physiotherapists and chiropractors in the Sydney metropolitan region will complete a baseline questionnaire regarding their back pain. Subsequently these patients will be followed up by telephone 6 weeks, 3 months and 12 months after the initial consultation. Patients will be considered to have recovered from the episode of back pain if they have no pain and no limitation of activity, and have returned to pre-injury work status. Life tables will be generated to determine the one year prognosis of acute low back pain. Prognostic factors will be assessed using Cox regression. DISCUSSION: This study will provide the first estimates of the one year prognosis of acute low back pain in a representative sample of primary care patients

Prognosis of chronic low back pain: design of an inception cohort study

BACKGROUND: Although clinical guidelines generally portray chronic low back pain as a condition with a poor prognosis this portrayal is based on studies of potentially unrepresentative survival cohorts. The aim of this study is to describe the prognosis of an inception cohort of people with chronic low back pain presenting for primary care. METHODS/DESIGN: The study will be an inception cohort study with one year follow-up. Participants are drawn from a cohort of consecutive patients presenting with acute low back pain (less than 2 weeks duration) to primary care clinics in Sydney, Australia. Those patients who continue to experience pain at three months, and are therefore classified as having chronic back pain, are invited to participate in the current study. The cohort will be followed up by telephone at baseline, 9 months and 12 months after being diagnosed with chronic low back pain. Recovery from low back pain will be measured by sampling three different outcomes: pain intensity, interference with function due to pain, and work status. Life tables will be generated to determine the one year prognosis of chronic low back pain. Prognostic factors will be assessed using Cox regression. DISCUSSION: This study will determine the prognosis of chronic non-specific low back pain in a representative cohort of patients sourced from primary care. The results of this study will improve understanding of chronic low back pain, allowing clinicians to provide more accurate prognostic information to their patients

Global and Regional Trends of Atmospheric Sulfur

The profound changes in global SO[subscript 2] emissions over the last decades have affected atmospheric composition on a regional and global scale with large impact on air quality, atmospheric deposition and the radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. Reproduction of historical atmospheric pollution levels based on global aerosol models and emission changes is crucial to prove that such models are able to predict future scenarios. Here, we analyze consistency of trends in observations of sulfur components in air and precipitation from major regional networks and estimates from six different global aerosol models from 1990 until 2015. There are large interregional differences in the sulfur trends consistently captured by the models and observations, especially for North America and europe. europe had the largest reductions in sulfur emissions in the first part of the period while the highest reduction came later in North America and east Asia. the uncertainties in both the emissions and the representativity of the observations are larger in Asia. However, emissions from East Asia clearly increased from 2000 to 2005 followed by a decrease, while in India a steady increase over the whole period has been observed and modelled. the agreement between a bottom-up approach, which uses emissions and process-based chemical transport models, with independent observations gives an improved confidence in the understanding of the atmospheric sulfur budget

Measurement Properties of Questionnaires Assessing Complementary and Alternative Medicine Use in Pediatrics: A Systematic Review

Complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) is commonly used by children, but estimates of that use vary widely partly due to the range of questionnaires used to assess CAM use. However, no studies have attempted to appraise measurement properties of these questionnaires. The aim of this systematic review was to critically appraise and summarize measurement properties of questionnaires of CAM use in pediatrics.A search strategy was implemented in major electronic databases in March 2011 and conference websites, scientific journals and experts were consulted. Studies were included if they mentioned a questionnaire assessing the prevalence of CAM use in pediatrics. Members of the team independently rated the methodological quality of the studies (using the COSMIN checklist) and measurement properties of the questionnaires (using the Terwee and Cohen criteria).A total of 96 CAM questionnaires were found in 104 publications. The COSMIN checklist showed that no studies reported adequate methodological quality. The Terwee criteria showed that all included CAM questionnaires had indeterminate measurement properties. According to the Cohen score, none were considered to be a well-established assessment, two approached the level of a well-established assessment, seven were promising assessments and the remainder (n = 87) did not reach the score's minimum standards.None of the identified CAM questionnaires have been thoroughly validated. This systematic review highlights the need for proper validation of CAM questionnaires in pediatrics, which may in turn lead to improved research and knowledge translation about CAM in clinical practice

High Hemocyte Load Is Associated with Increased Resistance against Parasitoids in Drosophila suzukii, a Relative of D. melanogaster

Among the most common parasites of Drosophila in nature are parasitoid wasps, which lay their eggs in fly larvae and pupae. D. melanogaster larvae can mount a cellular immune response against wasp eggs, but female wasps inject venom along with their eggs to block this immune response. Genetic variation in flies for immune resistance against wasps and genetic variation in wasps for virulence against flies largely determines the outcome of any fly-wasp interaction. Interestingly, up to 90% of the variation in fly resistance against wasp parasitism has been linked to a very simple mechanism: flies with increased constitutive blood cell (hemocyte) production are more resistant. However, this relationship has not been tested for Drosophila hosts outside of the melanogaster subgroup, nor has it been tested across a diversity of parasitoid wasp species and strains. We compared hemocyte levels in two fly species from different subgroups, D. melanogaster and D. suzukii, and found that D. suzukii constitutively produces up to five times more hemocytes than D. melanogaster. Using a panel of 24 parasitoid wasp strains representing fifteen species, four families, and multiple virulence strategies, we found that D. suzukii was significantly more resistant to wasp parasitism than D. melanogaster. Thus, our data suggest that the relationship between hemocyte production and wasp resistance is general. However, at least one sympatric wasp species was a highly successful infector of D. suzukii, suggesting specialists can overcome the general resistance afforded to hosts by excessive hemocyte production. Given that D. suzukii is an emerging agricultural pest, identification of the few parasitoid wasps that successfully infect D. suzukii may have value for biocontrol

STARD 2015: An Updated List of Essential Items for Reporting Diagnostic Accuracy Studies.

Incomplete reporting has been identified as a major source of avoidable waste in biomedical research. Essential information is often not provided in study reports, impeding the identification, critical appraisal, and replication of studies. To improve the quality of reporting of diagnostic accuracy studies, the Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (STARD) statement was developed. Here we present STARD 2015, an updated list of 30 essential items that should be included in every report of a diagnostic accuracy study. This update incorporates recent evidence about sources of bias and variability in diagnostic accuracy and is intended to facilitate the use of STARD. As such, STARD 2015 may help to improve completeness and transparency in reporting of diagnostic accuracy studies