Four reasons to prefer Bayesian analyses over significance testing

Inference using significance testing and Bayes factors is compared and contrasted in five case studies based on real research. The first study illustrates that the methods will often agree, both in motivating researchers to conclude that H1 is supported better than H0, and the other way round, that H0 is better supported than H1. The next four, however, show that the methods will also often disagree. In these cases, the aim of the paper will be to motivate the sensible evidential conclusion, and then see which approach matches those intuitions. Specifically, it is shown that a high-powered non-significant result is consistent with no evidence for H0 over H1 worth mentioning, which a Bayes factor can show, and, conversely, that a low-powered non-significant result is consistent with substantial evidence for H0 over H1, again indicated by Bayesian analyses. The fourth study illustrates that a high-powered significant result may not amount to any evidence for H1 over H0, matching the Bayesian conclusion. Finally, the fifth study illustrates that different theories can be evidentially supported to different degrees by the same data; a fact that P-values cannot reflect but Bayes factors can. It is argued that appropriate conclusions match the Bayesian inferences, but not those based on significance testing, where they disagree

Direction of the oblique medial malleolar osteotomy for exposure of the talus

A medial malleolar osteotomy is often indicated for operative exposure of posteromedial osteochondral defects and fractures of the talus. To obtain a congruent joint surface after refixation, the oblique osteotomy should be directed perpendicularly to the articular surface of the tibia at the intersection between the tibial plafond and medial malleolus. The purpose of this study was to determine this perpendicular direction in relation to the longitudinal tibial axis for use during surgery. Using anteroposterior mortise radiographs and coronal computed tomography (CT) scans of 46 ankles (45 patients) with an osteochondral lesion of the talus, two observers independently measured the intersection angle between the tibial plafond and medial malleolus. The bisector of this angle indicated the osteotomy perpendicular to the tibial articular surface. This osteotomy was measured relative to the longitudinal tibial axis on radiographs. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were calculated to assess reliability. The mean osteotomy was 57.2 ± 3.2° relative to the tibial plafond on radiographs and 56.5 ± 2.8 on CT scans. This osteotomy corresponded to 30.4 ± 3.7° relative to the longitudinal tibial axis. The intraobserver (ICC, 0.90-0.93) and interobserver (ICC, 0.65-0.91) reliability of these measurements were good to excellent. A medial malleolar osteotomy directed at a mean 30° relative to the tibial axis enters the joint perpendicularly to the tibial cartilage, and will likely result in a congruent joint surface after reductio

Effectiveness of interspinous implant surgery in patients with intermittent neurogenic claudication: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Item does not contain fulltextINTRODUCTION: Despite an increasing implantation rate of interspinous process distraction (IPD) devices in the treatment of intermittent neurogenic claudication (INC), definitive evidence on the clinical effectiveness of implants is lacking. The main objective of this review was to perform a meta-analysis of all systematic reviews, randomized clinical trials and prospective cohort series to quantify the effectiveness of IPDs and to evaluate the potential side-effects. METHODS: Data from all studies prospectively describing clinical results based on validated outcome scales and reporting complications of treatment of patients with INC with IPD placement. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane (CENTRAL), CINAHL, Academic Search Premier, Science Direct up to July 2010. Studies describing patients with INC caused by lumbar stenosis, reporting complication rate and reporting based on validated outcome scores, were eligible. Studies with only instrumented IPD results were excluded. RESULTS: Eleven studies eligible studies were identified. Two independently RCTs and eight prospective cohorts were available. In total 563 patients were treated with IPDs. All studies showed improvement in validated outcome scores after 6 weeks and 1 year. Pooled data based on the Zurich Claudication Questionnaire of the RCTs were more in favor of IPD treatment compared with conservative treatment (pooled estimate 23.2, SD 18.5-27.8). Statistical heterogeneity after pooled data was low (I-squared 0.0, p = 0.930). Overall complication rate was 7%. CONCLUSION: As the evidence is relatively low and the costs are high, more thorough (cost-) effectiveness studies should be performed before worldwide implementation is introduced

Maskless Plasmonic Lithography at 22 nm Resolution

Optical imaging and photolithography promise broad applications in nano-electronics, metrologies, and single-molecule biology. Light diffraction however sets a fundamental limit on optical resolution, and it poses a critical challenge to the down-scaling of nano-scale manufacturing. Surface plasmons have been used to circumvent the diffraction limit as they have shorter wavelengths. However, this approach has a trade-off between resolution and energy efficiency that arises from the substantial momentum mismatch. Here we report a novel multi-stage scheme that is capable of efficiently compressing the optical energy at deep sub-wavelength scales through the progressive coupling of propagating surface plasmons (PSPs) and localized surface plasmons (LSPs). Combining this with airbearing surface technology, we demonstrate a plasmonic lithography with 22 nm half-pitch resolution at scanning speeds up to 10 m/s. This low-cost scheme has the potential of higher throughput than current photolithography, and it opens a new approach towards the next generation semiconductor manufacturing

T-cell Subset Regulation in Atopy

Presentation of processed allergen by antigen-presenting cells to T-helper (Th) lymphocytes, which is influenced costimulatory signals, cytokines, chemokines, and regulatory T cells (Tregs), determines the development of different types of T-cell immunity. The discovery of Tregs revolutionized the primary concepts of immune regulation interpreted within the framework of a binary Th1/Th2 paradigm. Tregs play a central role in the maintenance of peripheral homeostasis, the establishment of controlled immune responses, and the inhibition of allergen-specific effector cells. Recently, some other T-cell subsets appeared, including Th17 and Th9 cells, which control local tissue inflammation through upregulation of proinflammatory cytokines and chemokines. This review aims to discuss our understanding of the T-cell subset reciprocal interaction in atopy

Overview of data-synthesis in systematic reviews of studies on outcome prediction models

Background: Many prognostic models have been developed. Different types of models, i.e. prognostic factor and outcome prediction studies, serve different purposes, which should be reflected in how the results are summarized in reviews. Therefore we set out to investigate how authors of reviews synthesize and report the results of primary outcome prediction studies. Methods: Outcome prediction reviews published in MEDLINE between October 2005 and March 2011 were eligible and 127 Systematic reviews with the aim to summarize outcome prediction studies written in English were identified for inclusion. Characteristics of the reviews and the primary studies that were included were independently assessed by 2 review authors, using standardized forms. Results: After consensus meetings a total of 50 systematic reviews that met the inclusion criteria were included. The type of primary studies included (prognostic factor or outcome prediction) was unclear in two-thirds of the reviews. A minority of the reviews reported univariable or multivariable point estimates and measures of dispersion from the primary studies. Moreover, the variables considered for outcome prediction model development were often not reported, or were unclear. In most reviews there was no information about model performance. Quantitative analysis was performed in 10 reviews, and 49 reviews assessed the primary studies qualitatively. In both analyses types a range of different methods was used to present the results of the outcome prediction studies. Conclusions: Different methods are applied to synthesize primary study results but quantitative analysis is rarely performed. The description of its objectives and of the primary studies is suboptimal and performance parameters of the outcome prediction models are rarely mentioned. The poor reporting and the wide variety of data synthesis strategies are prone to influence the conclusions of outcome prediction reviews. Therefore, there is much room for improvement in reviews of outcome prediction studies. (aut.ref.