Seir modeling of the italian epidemic of sars-cov-2 using computational swarm intelligence

We applied a generalized SEIR epidemiological model to the recent SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the world, with a focus on Italy and its Lombardy, Piedmont, and Veneto regions. We focused on the application of a stochastic approach in fitting the model parameters using a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) solver, to improve the reliability of predictions in the medium term (30 days). We analyzed the official data and the predicted evolution of the epidemic in the Italian regions, and we compared the results with the data and predictions of Spain and South Korea. We linked the model equations to the changes in people’s mobility, with reference to Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. We discussed the effectiveness of policies taken by different regions and countries and how they have an impact on past and future infection scenarios

Geophysical Monitoring at Laboratory Scale of Aerobic Degradation of Diesel Oil

The study is aimed to monitor bioremediation of hydrocarbon-polluted soils by measuring geophysical electromagnetic parameters. A previous study at lab scale showed that biostimulated indigenous microorganisms can remove diesel oil from soil successfully. Herein, we focused on the result of a laboratory test using Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) probes to measure electrical conductivity and dielectric permittivity in a column of sandy soil artificially contaminated with diesel oil. To simulate aerobic degradation of hydrocarbons, mesocosms were set-up in two Plexiglas columns (inner diameter = 13.8 cm) with 3.4 kg of soil (layer height = 14 cm) spiked with 0.24 kg of diesel oil and hydrated with 0.4 kg of Mineral Salt Medium for Bacteria. One mesocosm was aerated by air injection from the bottom of the column, while the other had only natural aeration due to air diffusion through the soil itself. In each column, electrical conductivity and dielectric permittivity were monitored by TDR probes for 105 days. TDR measurements were supported by microbiological and gas chromatographic analyses, along with SEM images. The findings showed that air injection heavily influenced the TDR monitoring, probably due to generation of air bubbles around the probe that interfered with probe-soil coupling. Therefore, the measurement accuracy was reduced in an irreversible way. In the non-aerated system, a slight (2%) and linear decrease of dielectric permittivity was observed over time, meanwhile electrical conductivity decreased by about 30%

A method for yield and cycle time improvements in Al alloy casting with enhanced conductivity steel for die construction

A die for Al alloy casting must be designed to achieve the expected quality levels. Moreover, the casting unit cost must be regarded as the objective function to be minimised It can be expressed as a function of the quantity of materials and energy to be used, cycle time and equipment investment. This work compares the performance of the die with inserts manufactured using the usual 1.2343 steel with that of the innovative 1.2383. The latter is considered due to its enhanced thermal conductivity, despite being more expensive. Simulation experiments are designed to evaluate different die layouts. The quality design solutions are evaluated against the cost objective function in order to identify the optimal die choice. A case study on gravity die casting (GDC) of an AlSi7Mg0.3 engine head shows faster solidification dynamics when using 1.2383 instead of 1.2343 steel. This reduces the feeder volume, thus increasing the production yield and speeding up the cycle time with a leverage effect. The higher investment cost for the inserts is rapidly returned thanks to the reduction in variable costs. The Return On Investment (ROI) with the improved die in the new solution is short compared with the life of the die

Open-ended coaxial probe measurements of complex dielectric permittivity in diesel-contaminated soil during bioremediation

In the bioremediation field, geophysical techniques are commonly applied, at lab scale and field scale, to perform the characterization and the monitoring of contaminated soils. We propose a method for detecting the dielectric properties of contaminated soil during a process of bioremediation. An open-ended coaxial probe measured the complex dielectric permittivity (between 0.2 and 20 GHz) on a series of six soil microcosms contaminated by diesel oil (13.5% Voil /Vtot ). The microcosms had different moisture content (13%, 19%, and 24% Vw/Vtot ) and different salinity due to the addition of nutrients (22 and 15 g/L). The real and the imaginary component of the complex dielectric permittivity were evaluated at the initial stage of contamination and after 130 days. In almost all microcosms, the real component showed a significant decrease (up to 2 units) at all frequencies. The results revealed that the changes in the real part of the dielectric permittivity are related to the amount of degradation and loss in moisture content. The imaginary component, mainly linked to the electrical conductivity of the soil, shows a significant drop to almost 0 at low frequencies. This could be explained by a salt depletion during bioremediation. Despite a moderate accuracy reduction compared to measurements performed on liquid media, this technology can be successfully applied to granular materials such as soil. The open-ended coaxial probe is a promising instrument to check the dielectric properties of soil to characterize or monitor a bioremediation process

Volunteer infant feeding and care counselors: a health education intervention to improve mother and child health and reduce mortality in rural Malawi

The aim of this report is to describe a health education intervention involving volunteer infant feeding and care counselors being implemented in Mchinji district, Malawi.The intervention was established in January 2004 and involves 72 volunteer infant feeding and care counselors, supervised by 24 government Health Surveillance Assistants, covering 355 villages in Mchinji district. It aims to change the knowledge, attitudes and behaviour of women to promote exclusive breastfeeding and other infant care practices. The main target population are women of child bearing age who are visited at five key points during pregnancy and after birth. Where possible, their partners are also involved. The visits cover exclusive breastfeeding and other important neonatal and infant care practices. Volunteers are provided with an intervention manual and picture book. Resource inputs are low and include training allowances and equipment for counselors and supervisors, and a salary, equipment and materials for a coordinator.It is hypothesized that the counselors will encourage informational and attitudinal change to enhance motivation and risk reduction skills and self-efficacy to promote exclusive breastfeeding and other infant care practices and reduce infant mortality. The impact is being evaluated through a cluster randomised controlled trial and results will be reported in 2012

Using a simple point-prevalence survey to define appropriate antibiotic prescribing in hospitalised children across the UK.

BACKGROUND: The National Health Service England, Commissioning for Quality and Innovation for Antimicrobial Resistance (CQUIN AMR) aims to reduce the total antibiotic consumption and the use of certain broad-spectrum antibiotics in secondary care. However, robust baseline antibiotic use data are lacking for hospitalised children. In this study, we aim to describe, compare and explain the prescription patterns of antibiotics within and between paediatric units in the UK and to provide a baseline for antibiotic prescribing for future improvement using CQUIN AMR guidance. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study using a point prevalence survey (PPS) in 61 paediatric units across the UK. The standardised study protocol from the Antibiotic Resistance and Prescribing in European Children (ARPEC) project was used. All inpatients under 18 years of age present in the participating hospital on the day of the study were included except neonates. RESULTS: A total of 1247 (40.9%) of 3047 children hospitalised on the day of the PPS were on antibiotics. The proportion of children receiving antibiotics showed a wide variation between both district general and tertiary hospitals, with 36.4% ( 95% CI 33.4% to 39.4%) and 43.0% (95% CI 40.9% to 45.1%) of children prescribed antibiotics, respectively. About a quarter of children on antibiotic therapy received either a medical or surgical prophylaxis with parenteral administration being the main prescribed route for antibiotics (>60% of the prescriptions for both types of hospitals). General paediatrics units were surprisingly high prescribers of critical broad-spectrum antibiotics, that is, carbapenems and piperacillin-tazobactam. CONCLUSIONS: We provide a robust baseline for antibiotic prescribing in hospitalised children in relation to current national stewardship efforts in the UK. Repeated PPS with further linkage to resistance data needs to be part of the antibiotic stewardship strategy to tackle the issue of suboptimal antibiotic use in hospitalised children

IL-36 Promotes Systemic IFN-I Responses in Severe Forms of Psoriasis

Psoriasis is an immune-mediated skin disorder associated with severe systemic comorbidities. Whereas IL-36 is a key disease driver, the pathogenic role of this cytokine has mainly been investigated in skin. Thus, its effects on systemic immunity and extracutaneous disease manifestations remain poorly understood. To address this issue, we investigated the consequences of excessive IL-36 activity in circulating immune cells. We initially focused our attention on generalized pustular psoriasis (GPP), a clinical variant associated with pervasive upregulation of IL-36 signaling. By undertaking blood and neutrophil RNA sequencing, we demonstrated that affected individuals display a prominent IFN-I signature, which correlates with abnormal IL-36 activity. We then validated the association between IL-36 deregulation and IFN-I over-expression in patients with severe psoriasis vulgaris (PV). We also found that the activation of IFN-I genes was associated with extracutaneous morbidity, in both GPP and PV. Finally, we undertook mechanistic experiments, demonstrating that IL-36 acts directly on plasmacytoid dendritic cells, where it potentiates toll-like receptor (TLR)-9 activation and IFN-α production. This effect was mediated by the upregulation of PLSCR1, a phospholipid scramblase mediating endosomal TLR-9 translocation. These findings identify an IL-36/ IFN-I axis contributing to extracutaneous inflammation in psoriasis.</p