Transitions of social-ecological subsistence systems in the Arctic

Transitions of social-ecological systems (SES) expose governance systems to new challenges. This is particularly so in the Arctic where resource systems are increasingly subjected to global warming, industrial development and globalization which subsequently alter the local SES dynamics. Based on common-pool resource theory, we developed a dynamic conceptual model explaining how exogenous drivers might alter a traditional subsistence system from a provisioning to an appropriation actions situation. In a provisioning action situation the resource users do not control the resource level but adapt to the fluctuating availability of resources, and the collective challenge revolve around securing the subsistence in the community. An increased harvest pressure enabled by exogenous drivers could transform the SES to an appropriation action situation where the collective challenge has changed to avoid overuse of a common-pool resource. The model was used as a focal lens to investigate the premises for broad-scale transitions of subsistence-oriented SESs in Arctic Alaska, Canada and Greenland. We synthesized data from documents, official statistics and grey and scientific literature to explore the different components of our model. Our synthesis suggests that the traditional Arctic subsistence SESs mostly comply with a provisioning action situation. Despite population growth and available technology; urbanization, increased wage labor and importation of food have reduced the resource demand, and we find no evidence for a broad-scale transition to an appropriation action situation throughout the Western Arctic. However, appropriation challenges have emerged in some cases either as a consequence of commercialization of the resource or by severely reduced resource stocks due to various exogenous drivers. Future transitions of SESs could be triggered by the emergence of commercial local food markets and Arctic warming. In particular, Arctic warming is an intensifying exogenous driver that is threatening many important Arctic wildlife resources inflicting increased appropriation challenges to the governance of local harvest.Ye

Research gaps and trends in the Arctic tundra: a topic-modelling approach

Climate change is affecting the biodiversity, ecosystem services and the well-being of people that live in the Arctic tundra. Understanding the societal implications and adapting to these changes depend on knowledge produced by multiple disciplines. We analysed peer-reviewed publications to identify the main research themes relating to the Arctic tundra and assessed to what extent current research build on multiple disciplines to confront the upcoming challenges of rapid environmental changes. We used a topic-modelling approach, based on the Latent Dirichlet Allocation algorithm to detect topics based on semantic similarity. We found that plant and soil ecology dominate the tundra research and are highly connected to other ecological disciplines and biophysical sciences. Despite the fivefold increase in the number of publications during the past decades, the proportion of studies that address societal implications of climate change remains low. The strong scientific interest in the tundra reflects the concern of the rapid warming of the Arctic, but few studies include the cross-disciplinary approach necessary to fully assess the implications of these changes for society

Law and sustainable transitions: an analysis of aquaculture regulation

The global demand for aquaculture products is rising, driven by declining wild fisheries, food security, and blue economy policies and initiatives, suggesting that aquaculture is significant for a sustainable future, despite its negative environmental impacts. Here we investigate the role of law in accelerating the transition towards sustainable aquaculture activities. We use the EU taxonomy for environmentally sustainable activities to define transitional criteria and examine the use of regulations to accelerate the transition in Norway. Even though both the Norwegian government and industrial actors promote transition toward sustainability, we find few regulations in place that accelerate the transition, and we find that sustainability ambitions are likely to be unmet in a business-and-regulation-as-usual scenario. Additional to discussing the role of law in sustainability transitions, we offer a method which can be employed to analyze regulation of different sectors or geographical areas and to devise policy recommendations for sustainable transitions

causalizeR: a text mining algorithm to identify causal relationships in scientific literature

Complex interactions among multiple abiotic and biotic drivers result in rapid changes in ecosystems worldwide. Predicting how specific interactions can cause ripple effects potentially resulting in abrupt shifts in ecosystems is of high relevance to policymakers, but difficult to quantify using data from singular cases. We present causalizeR (https://github.com/fjmurguzur/causalizeR), a text-processing algorithm that extracts causal relations from literature based on simple grammatical rules that can be used to synthesize evidence in unstructured texts in a structured manner. The algorithm extracts causal links using the relative position of nouns relative to the keyword of choice to extract the cause and effects of interest. The resulting database can be combined with network analysis tools to estimate the direct and indirect effects of multiple drivers at the network level, which is useful for synthesizing available knowledge and for hypothesis creation and testing. We illustrate the use of the algorithm by detecting causal relationships in scientific literature relating to the tundra ecosystem

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on human-nature relations in a remote nature-based tourism destination

Tourism and nature-based recreation has changed dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic. Travel restrictions caused sharp declines in visitation numbers, particularly in remote areas, such as northern Norway. In addition, the pandemic may have altered human-nature relationships by changing visitor behaviour and preferences. We studied visitor numbers and behaviour in northern Norway, based on user-generated data, in the form of photo graphic material that was uploaded to the popular online platform Flickr. A total of 195.200 photographs, taken by 5.247 photographers were subjected to Google’s “Cloud Vision” automatic content analysis algorithm. The resulting collection of labels that were assigned to each photograph was analysed in structural topic models, using photography date (relative to the start of the pandemic measures in Norway) and reported or estimated photographers’ nationality as explanatory variables. Our results show that nature-based recreation relating to “mountains” and “winter” became more prevalent during the pandemic, amongst both domestic and international photographers. Shifts in preferences due to the pandemic outbreak strongly depended on nationality, with domestic visitors demonstrating a wide interest in topics while international visitors maintained their preference for nature-based experiences. Among those activities that suffered the most from decline in international tourism was northern lights and cruises as indicated by the topic models. On the other hand, images depicting mountains and flora and fauna increased their prevalence during the pandemic. Domestic visitors, on the other hand, spent more time in urban settings as a result of restrictions, which results in a higher prevalence of non-nature related images. Our results underscore the need to consider the dynamic nature of human-nature relationships. The contrast in flexibility to adapt to changing conditions and travel restrictions should be incorporated in collaborativ

Pan-Arctic Analysis of Cultural Ecosystem Services Using Social Media and Automated Content Analysis

In the Arctic, as in many parts of the world, interactions with the natural world are an important part of people\u27s experience and are often recorded in photographs. Emerging methods for automated content analysis of social media data offers opportunities to discover information on cultural ecosystem services from photographs across large samples of people and countries. We analysed over 800,000 Flickr photographs using Google\u27s Cloud Vision algorithm to identify the components of the natural environment most photographed and to map how and where different people interact with nature across eight Arctic countries. Almost all (91.1%) of users took one or more photographs of biotic nature, and such photos account for over half (53.2%) of Arctic photos on Flickr. We find that although the vast majority of Arctic human-nature interactions occur outside protected areas, people are slightly more likely to photograph nature inside protected areas after accounting for the low accessibility of Arctic protected areas. Wildlife photographers travel further from roads than people who take fewer photographs of wildlife, and people venture much further from roads inside protected areas. A large diversity of nature was reflected in the photographs, from mammals, birds, fish, fungi, plants and invertebrates, signalling an untapped potential to connect and engage people in the appreciation and conservation of the natural world. Our findings suggest that, despite limitations, automated content analysis can be a rapid and readily accessed source of data on how and where people interact with nature, and a large-scale method for assessing cultural ecosystem services across countries and cultures

Drones as a Tool to Monitor Human Impacts and Vegetation Changes in Parks and Protected Areas

Increased visitation to protected areas could have adverse impacts on the conservation values in the protected areas, and therefore effective visitor monitoring methods are needed to meet the complex management challenges that arise. Collecting data on human impacts is highly time consuming, thus requiring more effective tools that allow for high-quality and long-term measurements. In this study, we show how unmanned aerial vehicles (i.e. UAV or drones) could be used to monitor tourism impacts in protected areas. Tourism has boomed in national parks in Norway in recent years, such as in Jotunheimen National Park for which this study applies. We test the use of drones on a site where new tourist facilities will be established to set a baseline to identify future changes. We demonstrate how drones could help protected area management by monitoring visitor use patterns and commonly associated impacts such as trail condition (width and depth), vegetation structure and disturbances, informal trail proliferation, trampling, and trash and other impacts along the trails. We assessed accuracy and reliability compared with intensive field measurements of impacts and found low-cost drones to be effective in mapping the study area with a resolution of 0.5 cm/pixel: drone derived trail measurements were comparable to traditional measurements with a negligible divergence on trail width measurements and a consistent 1.05 cm divergence on trail depth measurements that can be corrected with a few validation points. In addition, we created a high-resolution vegetation classification map that could be used as a baseline for monitoring impacts. We conclude that drones can effectively contribute to visitor monitoring by reducing time spent in the field and by providing high-resolution time series that could be used as baseline to measure tourism impacts on conservation values in protected areas

Inuit Attitudes towards Co-Managing Wildlife in Three Communities in the Kivalliq Region of Nunavut, Canada

We explored Inuit attitudes towards co-managing wildlife in the Kivalliq Region of Nunavut, Canada, working in partnership with the hunters and trappers’ organizations of Igluligaarjuk (Chesterfield Inlet), Tikirarjuaq (Whale Cove), and Qamani’tuaq (Baker Lake). In mixed-methods interviews, study participants in the two coastal communities described dissatisfaction with polar bear (Ursus maritimus) management outcomes, in contrast to a general satisfaction with (or indifference to) the management of other species. Interviewees expressed concern about grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) and, more prominently, caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) populations in Qamani’tuaq, the inland community. Researchers have predicted that conflicts specific to polar bear management could lead to regulations being ignored or even defied and endanger the entire system of wildlife co-management. Our results indicate that dissatisfaction over decisions is specific to polar bear management outcomes and does not necessarily apply to the broader system of wildlife co-management. The results suggest that the Nunavut wildlife co-management system is quite functional: polar bear issues aside, Inuit in Qamani’tuaq, Tikirarjuaq, and Igluligaarjuk are largely content with the current functioning of the wildlife co-management regime.Nous avons étudié les attitudes des Inuits à l’égard de la cogestion de la faune dans la région de Kivalliq, au Nunavut, Canada, en collaboration avec les organisations de chasseurs et de trappeurs d’Igluligaarjuk (inlet Chesterfield), de Tikirarjuaq (Whale Cove) et de Qamani’tuaq (Baker Lake). Dans le cadre d’entretiens effectués au moyen de diverses méthodes, les participants à l’étude des deux collectivités côtières ont exprimé leur mécontentement à l’égard des résultats de la gestion de l’ours polaire (Ursus maritimus), comparativement à leur satisfaction générale (ou à leur indifférence) quant à la gestion des autres espèces. Par ailleurs, les personnes interrogées ont exprimé des inquiétudes par rapport aux populations de grizzli (Ursus arctos) et des inquiétudes encore plus grandes par rapport aux populations de caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) à Qamani’tuaq, la collectivité intérieure. Selon les chercheurs, les conflits en matière de gestion de l’ours polaire pourraient se traduire par le non-respect ou la non-considération des règlements, et mettre en danger le système de cogestion de la faune dans son ensemble. D’après nos résultats, le mécontentement à l’égard des décisions a précisément trait aux résultats de la gestion des ours polaires et ne concerne pas nécessairement le système général de cogestion de la faune. Selon les résultats, le système de cogestion de la faune du Nunavut est bien fonctionnel : mis à part la question des ours polaires, les Inuits de Qamani’tuaq, de Tikirarjuaq et d’Igluligaarjuk sont en grande partie satisfaits du fonctionnement actuel du régime de cogestion de la faune

Efficient Sampling for Ecosystem Service Supply Assessment at a Landscape Scale

Decision makers and stakeholders need high-quality data to manage ecosystem services (ES) efficiently. Landscape-level data on ES that are of sufficient quality to identify spatial tradeoffs, co-occurrence and hotspots of ES are costly to collect, and it is therefore important to increase the efficiency of sampling of primary data. We demonstrate how ES could be assessed more efficiently through image-based point intercept method and determine the tradeoff between the number of sample points (pins) used per image and the robustness of the measurements. We performed a permutation study to assess the reliability implications of reducing the number of pins per image. We present a flexible approach to optimize landscape-level assessments of ES that maximizes the information obtained from 1 m2 digital images. Our results show that 30 pins are sufficient to measure ecosystem service indicators with a crown cover higher than 5% for landscape scale assessments. Reducing the number of pins from 100 to 30 reduces the processing time up to a 50% allowing to increase the number of sampled plots, resulting in more management-relevant ecosystem service maps. The three criteria presented here provide a flexible approach for optimal design of landscape-level assessments of ES

Can my GPS lead me to a sustainable future? The role of technology and lessons from three remote Arctic communities

This presentation outlines research involving 35 residents of Brevig Mission, Noatak, and Noorvik during March 2017 were asked to evaluate values and beliefs regarding technology, climate change, and subsistence. Interviewees indicated that technology was helpful in their hunting and subsistence activities, but it was also expensive and may contribute to taking larger risks. Furthermore, technology was not seen as making up entirely for the impacts arising from changing climate