Minimum scoring rule inference

Proper scoring rules are methods for encouraging honest assessment of probability distributions. Just like likelihood, a proper scoring rule can be applied to supply an unbiased estimating equation for any statistical model, and the theory of such equations can be applied to understand the properties of the associated estimator. In this paper we develop some basic scoring rule estimation theory, and explore robustness and interval estimation properties by means of theory and simulations.Comment: 27 pages, 3 figure

A new Bayesian discrepancy measure

A Bayesian Discrepancy Test (BDT) is proposed to evaluate the distance of a given hypothesis with respect to the available information (prior law and data). The proposed measure of evidence has properties of consistency and invariance. After having presented the similarities and differences between the BDT and other Bayesian tests, we proceed with the analysis of some multiparametric case studies, showing the properties of the BDT. Among them conceptual and interpretative simplicity, possibility of dealing with complex case studies.Comment: 20 pages 9 figure

Procesos emocionales y afectivos

This article examines different conceptual approaches and historical perspectives on the study of Emotion. It considers the most recent hypotheses and basic findings including those from neuscience. According to lthese findings, the concept of the differentiated emotional process is emphasized even though it is connected to cognitive and motivational processes. Finally, it makes an approach to affective processes which have occasionally been treated indistinctly from emotional ones, hypothesizing some differential and relevant elements for its conceptualization.En este ensayo se realiza un recorrido por las diferentes aproximaciones conceptuales al estudio de la Emoción desde la perspectiva histórica, considerando las postulaciones más recientes y los hallazgos fundamentales, incluyendo la perspectiva de las neurociencias. En función de estos hallazgos se enfatiza en la conceptualización del proceso emocional diferenciado, aunque relacionado, con procesos cognitivos y motivacionales. Finalmente se hace una aproximación a los procesos afectivos, que en ocasiones han sido manejados de manera indistinta con los emocionales, postulando algunos elementos diferenciales y relevantes para su conceptualización

BRCA1/2 genetic background-based therapeutic tailoring of human ovarian cancer: hope or reality?

Ovarian epithelial tumors are an hallmark of hereditary cancer syndromes which are related to the germ-line inheritance of cancer predisposing mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. Although these genes have been associated with multiple different physiologic functions, they share an important role in DNA repair mechanisms and therefore in the whole genomic integrity control. These findings have risen a variety of issues in terms of treatment and prevention of breast and ovarian tumors arising in this context. Enhanced sensitivity to platinum-based anticancer drugs has been related to BRCA1/2 functional loss. Retrospective studies disclosed differential chemosensitivity profiles of BRCA1/2-related as compared to "sporadic" ovarian cancer and led to the identification of a "BRCA-ness" phenotype of ovarian cancer, which includes inherited BRCA1/2 germ-line mutations, a serous high grade histology highly sensitive to platinum derivatives. Molecularly-based tailored treatments of human tumors are an emerging issue in the "era" of molecular targeted drugs and molecular profiling technologies. We will critically discuss if the genetic background of ovarian cancer can indeed represent a determinant issue for decision making in the treatment selection and how the provocative preclinical findings might be translated in the therapeutic scenario. The presently available preclinical and clinical evidence clearly indicates that genetic background has an emerging role in treatment individualization for ovarian cancer patients

Results of an international drug testing service for cryptomarket users

Introduction: User surveys indicate that expectations of higher drug purity are a key reason for cryptomarket use. In 2014-2015, Spain's NGO Energy Control conducted a 1-year pilot project to provide a testing service to cryptomarket drug users using the Transnational European Drug Information (TEDI) guidelines. In this paper, we present content and purity data from the trial. Methods: 219 samples were analyzed by gas chromatography associated with mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Users were asked to report what substance they allegedly purchased. Results: 40 different advertised substances were reported, although 77.6% were common recreational drugs (cocaine, MDMA, amphetamines, LSD, ketamine, cannabis). In 200 samples (91.3%), the main result of analysis matched the advertised substance. Where the advertised compound was detected, purity levels (m. ±. SD) were: cocaine 71.6. ±. 19.4%; MDMA (crystal) 88.3. ±. 1.4%; MDMA (pills) 133.3. ±. 38.4. mg; Amphetamine (speed) 51.3. ±. 33.9%; LSD 123.6. ±. 40.5. µg; Cannabis resin THC: 16.5. ±. 7.5% CBD: 3.4. ±. 1.5%; Ketamine 71.3. ±. 38.4%. 39.8% of cocaine samples contained the adulterant levamisole (11.6. ±. 8%). No adulterants were found in MDMA and LSD samples. Discussion: The largest collection of test results from drug samples delivered from cryptomarkets are reported in this study. Most substances contained the advertised ingredient and most samples were of high purity. The representativeness of these results is unknown

The International Classification of Diseases, the Family of International Classifications, The ICD-11, and Post-Polio Syndrome

The first International Classification of Diseases (ICD) was approved in 1893 and since then it has been periodically reviewed. The last, 10th revision (ICD-10), was approved in 1989. Since 1989, it was possible to update from ICD revisions, which did not happen before. The next revision (ICD-11) would probably be published in 2015. In 1989, mechanisms were established to update ICD-10, through the creation of the Morbidity Reference Group (MbRG) in 1997 and the Update and Revision Committee (URC) in 2000. The Morbidity Reference Group (MbRG) was created in 2007 to discuss in more detail the issues to update morbidity. A specific code in ICD was not included in the revision of ICD-10 in 1989 for the post-polio syndrome (PPS). However, the ICD new code G14 for PPS was included in ICD-10 since 2010.A primeira Classificação Internacional de Doenças (CID) foi aprovada em 1893 e, desde então, vem sendo periodicamente revisada. A última, a décima revisão (CID-10), foi aprovada em 1989. A partir de 1989, foram estabelecidos mecanismos para atualizar a CID-10, o que não ocorria antes. A próxima revisão (CID-11) provavelmente será publica em 2015. Os mecanismos para atualizar a CID-10, incluíram a criação do Grupo de Referência de Mortalidade (Mortality Reference Group – MRG) em 1997, e do Comitê de Revisão e Atualizações (Update & Revision Committee – URC) em 2000. Em 2007, foi criado o Grupo de Referência em Morbidade (Morbidity Reference Group – MbRG), que passou a discutir mais detalhadamente questões para atualização relacionada à Morbidade. A síndrome pós-poliomielite não foi contemplada com um código específico na revisão da CID-10 de 1989. Entretanto, a partir do ano de 2010, foi incluído na CID-10 o código G14 para a SPP.Universidade São Paulo Faculdade de Saude Publica Centro Colaborador da OMS para a Familia de Classificacoes InternacionaisUniversidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) Escola Paulista de Medicina Departamento de Neurologia e NeurocirurgiaUNASP/SP Centro Universitario Adventista de São PauloSecretaria Municipal de Saude do Municipio de São Paulo Centro de Controle de Doencas da Coordenacao de Vigilancia em SaudeUNIFESP, EPM, Depto. de Neurologia e NeurocirurgiaSciEL

Prevalência de erros refrativos na sequência de Möbius

PURPOSE: To assess the prevalence of refractive errors in Möbius sequence. METHODS: This study was carried out during the Annual Meeting of the Brazilian Möbius Society in November 2008. Forty-four patients diagnosed with the Möbius sequence were submitted to a comprehensive assessment, on the following specialties: ophthalmology, neurology, genetics, psychiatry, psychology and dentistry. Forty-three patients were cooperative and able to undertake the ophthalmological examination. Twenty-two (51.2 %) were male and 21 (48.8%) were female. The average age was 8.3 years (from 2 to 17 years). The visual acuity was evaluated using a retro-illuminated logMAR chart in cooperative patients. All children were submitted to exams on ocular motility, cyclopegic refraction, and fundus examination. RESULTS: From the total of 85 eyes, using the spherical equivalent, the major of the eyes (57.6%) were emmetropics (>-0.50 D and -0,50 D e <+2,00 D). A prevalência de astigmatismo maior que 0,75D foi 40%. CONCLUSÃO: A prevalência de erros refrativos, pelo equivalente esférico, no grupo estudado foi de 42,4%.Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) Department of OphthalmologySão Paulo University Department of OphthalmologySanta Casa Medical School Department of OphthalmologyUniversity of Illinois Department of Ophthalmology & Visual SciencesAltino Ventura FoundationUNIFESP, Department of OphthalmologySciEL

Three new bricks in the wall: Berkeley 23, Berkeley 31, and King 8

A comprehensive census of Galactic open cluster properties places unique constraints on the Galactic disc structure and evolution. In this framework we investigate the evolutionary status of three poorly-studied open clusters, Berkeley 31, Berkeley 23 and King 8, all located in the Galactic anti-centre direction. To this aim, we make use of deep LBT observations, reaching more than 6 mag below the main sequence Turn- Off. To determine the cluster parameters, namely age, metallicity, distance, reddening and binary fraction, we compare the observational colour-magnitude diagrams (CMDs) with a library of synthetic CMDs generated with different evolutionary sets (Padova, FRANEC and FST) and metallicities. We find that Berkeley 31 is relatively old, with an age between 2.3 and 2.9 Gyr, and rather high above the Galactic plane, at about 700 pc. Berkeley 23 and King 8 are younger, with best fitting ages in the range 1.1-1.3 Gyr and 0.8-1.3 Gyr, respectively. The position above the Galactic plane is about 500- 600 pc for the former, and 200 pc for the latter. Although a spectroscopic confirmation is needed, our analysis suggests a sub-solar metallicity for all three clusters.Comment: 17 Pages, Accepted for publication in MNRA