A global observational analysis to understand changes in air quality during exceptionally low anthropogenic emission

This global study, which has been coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO/GAW) programme, aims to understand the behaviour of key air pollutant species during the COVID-19 pandemic period of exceptionally low emissions across the globe. We investigated the effects of the differences in both emissions and regional and local meteorology in 2020 compared with the period 2015–2019. By adopting a globally consistent approach, this comprehensive observational analysis focuses on changes in air quality in and around cities across the globe for the following air pollutants PM2.5, PM10, PMC (coarse fraction of PM), NO2, SO2, NOx, CO, O3 and the total gaseous oxidant (OX = NO2 + O3) during the pre-lockdown, partial lockdown, full lockdown and two relaxation periods spanning from January to September 2020. The analysis is based on in situ ground-based air quality observations at over 540 traffic, background and rural stations, from 63 cities and covering 25 countries over seven geographical regions of the world. Anomalies in the air pollutant concentrations (increases or decreases during 2020 periods compared to equivalent 2015–2019 periods) were calculated and the possible effects of meteorological conditions were analysed by computing anomalies from ERA5 reanalyses and local observations for these periods. We observed a positive correlation between the reductions in NO2 and NOx concentrations and peoples’ mobility for most cities. A correlation between PMC and mobility changes was also seen for some Asian and South American cities. A clear signal was not observed for other pollutants, suggesting that sources besides vehicular emissions also substantially contributed to the change in air quality. As a global and regional overview of the changes in ambient concentrations of key air quality species, we observed decreases of up to about 70% in mean NO2 and between 30% and 40% in mean PM2.5 concentrations over 2020 full lockdown compared to the same period in 2015–2019. However, PM2.5 exhibited complex signals, even within the same region, with increases in some Spanish cities, attributed mainly to the long-range transport of African dust and/or biomass burning (corroborated with the analysis of NO2/CO ratio). Some Chinese cities showed similar increases in PM2.5 during the lockdown periods, but in this case, it was likely due to secondary PM formation. Changes in O3 concentrations were highly heterogeneous, with no overall change or small increases (as in the case of Europe), and positive anomalies of 25% and 30% in East Asia and South America, respectively, with Colombia showing the largest positive anomaly of ~70%. The SO2 anomalies were negative for 2020 compared to 2015–2019 (between ~25 to 60%) for all regions. For CO, negative anomalies were observed for all regions with the largest decrease for South America of up to ~40%. The NO2/CO ratio indicated that specific sites (such as those in Spanish cities) were affected by biomass burning plumes, which outweighed the NO2 decrease due to the general reduction in mobility (ratio of ~60%). Analysis of the total oxidant (OX = NO2 + O3) showed that primary NO2 emissions at urban locations were greater than the O3 production, whereas at background sites, OX was mostly driven by the regional contributions rather than local NO2 and O3 concentrations. The present study clearly highlights the importance of meteorology and episodic contributions (e.g., from dust, domestic, agricultural biomass burning and crop fertilizing) when analysing air quality in and around cities even during large emissions reductions. There is still the need to better understand how the chemical responses of secondary pollutants to emission change under complex meteorological conditions, along with climate change and socio-economic drivers may affect future air quality. The implications for regional and global policies are also significant, as our study clearly indicates that PM2.5 concentrations would not likely meet the World Health Organization guidelines in many parts of the world, despite the drastic reductions in mobility. Consequently, revisions of air quality regulation (e.g., the Gothenburg Protocol) with more ambitious targets that are specific to the different regions of the world may well be required.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

A global observational analysis to understand changes in air quality during exceptionally low anthropogenic emission conditions

This global study, which has been coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO/GAW) programme, aims to understand the behaviour of key air pollutant species during the COVID-19 pandemic period of exceptionally low emissions across the globe. We investigated the effects of the differences in both emissions and regional and local meteorology in 2020 compared with the period 2015–2019. By adopting a globally consistent approach, this comprehensive observational analysis focuses on changes in air quality in and around cities across the globe for the following air pollutants PM2.5, PM10, PMC (coarse fraction of PM), NO2, SO2, NOx, CO, O3 and the total gaseous oxidant (OX = NO2 + O3) during the pre-lockdown, partial lockdown, full lockdown and two relaxation periods spanning from January to September 2020. The analysis is based on in situ ground-based air quality observations at over 540 traffic, background and rural stations, from 63 cities and covering 25 countries over seven geographical regions of the world. Anomalies in the air pollutant concentrations (increases or decreases during 2020 periods compared to equivalent 2015–2019 periods) were calculated and the possible effects of meteorological conditions were analysed by computing anomalies from ERA5 reanalyses and local observations for these periods. We observed a positive correlation between the reductions in NO2 and NOx concentrations and peoples’ mobility for most cities. A correlation between PMC and mobility changes was also seen for some Asian and South American cities. A clear signal was not observed for other pollutants, suggesting that sources besides vehicular emissions also substantially contributed to the change in air quality. As a global and regional overview of the changes in ambient concentrations of key air quality species, we observed decreases of up to about 70% in mean NO2 and between 30% and 40% in mean PM2.5 concentrations over 2020 full lockdown compared to the same period in 2015–2019. However, PM2.5 exhibited complex signals, even within the same region, with increases in some Spanish cities, attributed mainly to the long-range transport of African dust and/or biomass burning (corroborated with the analysis of NO2/CO ratio). Some Chinese cities showed similar increases in PM2.5 during the lockdown periods, but in this case, it was likely due to secondary PM formation. Changes in O3 concentrations were highly heterogeneous, with no overall change or small increases (as in the case of Europe), and positive anomalies of 25% and 30% in East Asia and South America, respectively, with Colombia showing the largest positive anomaly of ~70%. The SO2 anomalies were negative for 2020 compared to 2015–2019 (between ~25 to 60%) for all regions. For CO, negative anomalies were observed for all regions with the largest decrease for South America of up to ~40%. The NO2/CO ratio indicated that specific sites (such as those in Spanish cities) were affected by biomass burning plumes, which outweighed the NO2 decrease due to the general reduction in mobility (ratio of ~60%). Analysis of the total oxidant (OX = NO2 + O3) showed that primary NO2 emissions at urban locations were greater than the O3 production, whereas at background sites, OX was mostly driven by the regional contributions rather than local NO2 and O3 concentrations. The present study clearly highlights the importance of meteorology and episodic contributions (e.g., from dust, domestic, agricultural biomass burning and crop fertilizing) when analysing air quality in and around cities even during large emissions reductions. There is still the need to better understand how the chemical responses of secondary pollutants to emission change under complex meteorological conditions, along with climate change and socio-economic drivers may affect future air quality. The implications for regional and global policies are also significant, as our study clearly indicates that PM2.5 concentrations would not likely meet the World Health Organization guidelines in many parts of the world, despite the drastic reductions in mobility. Consequently, revisions of air quality regulation (e.g., the Gothenburg Protocol) with more ambitious targets that are specific to the different regions of the world may well be required.World Meteorological Organization Global Atmospheric Watch programme is gratefully acknowledged for initiating and coordinating this study and for supporting this publication. We acknowledge the following projects for supporting the analysis contained in this article: Air Pollution and Human Health for an Indian Megacity project PROMOTE funded by UK NERC and the Indian MOES, Grant reference number NE/P016391/1; Regarding project funding from the European Commission, the sole responsibility of this publication lies with the authors. The European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. This project has received funding from the European Commission’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 874990 (EMERGE project). European Regional Development Fund (project MOBTT42) under the Mobilitas Pluss programme; Estonian Research Council (project PRG714); Estonian Research Infrastructures Roadmap project Estonian Environmental Observatory (KKOBS, project 2014-2020.4.01.20-0281). European network for observing our changing planet project (ERAPLANET, grant agreement no. 689443) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, Estonian Ministry of Sciences projects (grant nos. P180021, P180274), and the Estonian Research Infrastructures Roadmap project Estonian Environmental Observatory (3.2.0304.11-0395). Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East—Climate and Atmosphere Research (EMME-CARE) project, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant agreement no. 856612) and the Government of Cyprus. INAR acknowledges support by the Russian government (grant number 14.W03.31.0002), the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (agreement 14.W0331.0006), and the Russian Ministry of Education and Science (14.W03.31.0008). We are grateful to to the following agencies for providing access to data used in our analysis: A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics Russian Academy of Sciences; Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione dell’Ambiente della Campania (ARPAC); Air Quality and Climate Change, Parks and Environment (MetroVancouver, Government of British Columbia); Air Quality Monitoring & Reporting, Nova Scotia Environment (Government of Nova Scotia); Air Quality Monitoring Network (SIMAT) and Emission Inventory, Mexico City Environment Secretariat (SEDEMA); Airparif (owner & provider of the Paris air pollution data); ARPA Lazio, Italy; ARPA Lombardia, Italy; Association Agr´e´ee de Surveillance de la Qualit´e de l’Air en ˆIle-de- France AIRPARIF / Atmo-France; Bavarian Environment Agency, Germany; Berlin Senatsverwaltung für Umwelt, Verkehr und Klimaschutz, Germany; California Air Resources Board; Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), India; CETESB: Companhia Ambiental do Estado de S˜ao Paulo, Brazil. China National Environmental Monitoring Centre; Chandigarh Pollution Control Committee (CPCC), India. DCMR Rijnmond Environmental Service, the Netherlands. Department of Labour Inspection, Cyprus; Department of Natural Resources Management and Environmental Protection of Moscow. Environment and Climate Change Canada; Environmental Monitoring and Science Division Alberta Environment and Parks (Government of Alberta); Environmental Protection Authority Victoria (Melbourne, Victoria, Australia); Estonian Environmental Research Centre (EERC); Estonian University of Life Sciences, SMEAR Estonia; European Regional Development Fund (project MOBTT42) under the Mobilitas Pluss programme; Finnish Meteorological Institute; Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority; Haryana Pollution Control Board (HSPCB), IndiaLondon Air Quality Network (LAQN) and the Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN) supported by the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government; Madrid Municipality; Met Office Integrated Data Archive System (MIDAS); Meteorological Service of Canada; Minist`ere de l’Environnement et de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques (Gouvernement du Qu´ebec); Ministry of Environment and Energy, Greece; Ministry of the Environment (Chile) and National Weather Service (DMC); Moscow State Budgetary Environmental Institution MOSECOMONITORING. Municipal Department of the Environment SMAC, Brazil; Municipality of Madrid public open data service; National institute of environmental research, Korea; National Meteorology and Hydrology Service (SENAMHI), Peru; New York State Department of Environmental Conservation; NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment; Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks, Canada; Public Health Service of Amsterdam (GGD), the Netherlands. Punjab Pollution Control Board (PPCB), India. R´eseau de surveillance de la qualit´e de l’air (RSQA) (Montr´eal); Rosgydromet. Mosecomonitoring, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russia; Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project 20–05–00254) SAFAR-IITM-MoES, India; S˜ao Paulo State Environmental Protection Agency, CETESB; Secretaria de Ambiente, DMQ, Ecuador; Secretaría Distrital de Ambiente, Bogot´a, Colombia. Secretaria Municipal de Meio Ambiente Rio de Janeiro; Mexico City Atmospheric Monitoring System (SIMAT); Mexico City Secretariat of Environment, Secretaría del Medio Ambiente (SEDEMA); SLB-analys, Sweden; SMEAR Estonia station and Estonian University of Life Sciences (EULS); SMEAR stations data and Finnish Center of Excellence; South African Weather Service and Department of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries through SAAQIS; Spanish Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge (MITECO); University of Helsinki, Finland; University of Tartu, Tahkuse air monitoring station; Weather Station of the Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Science of the University of S˜ao Paulo; West Bengal Pollution Control Board (WBPCB).http://www.elsevier.com/locate/envintam2023Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorolog

How Science Guides Industry Choice Of Alternatives To Ozone-Depleting Substances

This chapter documents how scientific discovery and international cooperation protect the stratospheric ozone layer and the climate. It describes how citizens, nongovernmental organizations, policy makers, and company executives historically responded to new discoveries in stratospheric ozone science and how new scientific discoveries have motivated the strengthening of the Montreal Protocol by accelerating the phaseout of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). At each stage of a historic scientific breakthrough, a different set of actors were the drivers of social change. Using case studies, we identify similarities and differences in how science is important to the evolving policy to protect the Earth for future generations. This chapter contrasts the historic response to science regarding chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) with the current policy response to new scientific evidence that was the foundation of the recent global agreement accelerating the HCFC phaseout under the Montreal Protocol. The new science quantifies how the HCFC phaseout can significantly protect the climate in the immediate future, particularly if low-Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerants, not-in-kind alternatives, and high-efficiency technologies are encouraged by regulatory, market, and other incentives. Finally, the spatial relationship between significant scientific announcements and several of the path-breaking corporate leadership pledges that transformed markets toward ozone-safe technology are introduced. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Reductions in nitrogen oxides over the Netherlands between 2005 and 2018 observed from space and on the ground : Decreasing emissions and increasing O₃ indicate changing NO_x chemistry

Satellite measurements of tropospheric NO2 columns are valuable for monitoring long-term changes in air quality. However, direct linkage of satellite-derived NO2 trends with changes in underlying NOx emissions and NOx surface concentrations is complicated by the contribution of background NO2 to the column, by changes in the chemical regime wherein emissions take place, and by data sampling differences. Here we study the 2005–2018 changes in nitrogen oxides concentrations over the polluted Netherlands. We use the QA4ECV OMI NO2 retrievals, RIVM surface measurements of NO, NO2, and O3, wet deposition fluxes of nitrate, and NOx emissions reported in two European inventories (EMEP and TNO-MACC-III). We interpret the observed changes in concentrations with simulations by CLASS, a box model accounting for boundary layer dynamics and chemistry. Nationally averaged, OMI column NO2 and RIVM surface NO2 concentrations are reduced by 30% and 32% respectively between 2005 and 2018. This is in line with Dutch national NOx emissions from the TNO-MACC-III and EMEP inventories showing decreases of 32%–39%, respectively, between 2005 and 2018. There is no indication that the decrease in NO2 concentrations slows down after 2010. The observed reductions in nitrogen oxides differ between winter and summer and turn out to be modulated by ozone chemistry. The RIVM surface measurements show a stronger reduction in NOx than in NO2, accompanied by an increase in O3 of 4–6 ppbv, which is due to diminished NO-titration following the lower NOx emissions, especially in winter. CLASS simulations confirm that daytime O3 increases have shifted the NO–NO2 equilibrium more towards NO2, explaining the weaker reductions in NO2 (−30%) than in NOx (−40%) concentrations over time. The O3 increases occur both during day and during night, and have likely shortened the NOx lifetimes both in summer (via faster OH + NO2+M during daytime) and in winter (via faster nighttime N2O5 formation and subsequent hydrolysis). Our findings suggest a reduction in anthropogenic NOx emissions of approximately 30% in the southern part of the Netherlands, and propose that interpreting satellite NO2 trends as a proxy for trends in NOx emissions is well-possible over a high-NOx region, but requires careful analysis in terms of changes in the chemical regimes and NOx lifetime.</p

Can further mitigation of ammonia emissions reduce exceedances of particulate matter air quality standards ?

Several studies point out the importance of agricultural emissions to particulate matter (PM) concentrations, and particularly of NH3 emissions to PM2.5. Our study used three different chemical transport models (CHIMERE, EMEP and LOTOS-EUROS) to quantify the reductions of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations due to reductions of NH3 emissions beyond the Gothenburg Protocol (GP), as well as due to the GP alone compared to 2009. Simulations of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations using 2009 meteorology were undertaken for five emission scenarios: 2009 emissions (as the reference simulation), GP emissions in 2020, and further 10%, 20% and 30% NH3 emission reductions in EU27 beyond the GP. The modelling results for the scenarios with further 10%, 20% and 30% NH3 agriculture emission reductions in EU27 beyond the GP show that the reduction achieved in PM concentrations is not linear with the emission reductions. In fact, the results from the study show that the impact of ammonia emissions reduction is significantly more efficient when the emission reduction rises. Moreover, based on the evaluation on 2009, the modelling study shows that the expected impact of ammonia emissions on the formation of particulate ammonium was underestimated by all models. This would imply that the role of ammonia on PM concentration and exceedances of PM2.5 and PM10 limit values is likely to be even larger than quantified in this study. This study shows that the implementation of the emission reductions imposed by the revised GP for 2020 will not suffice to achieve compliance with PM limit values everywhere in Europe; hence further European and local measures may be considered. NH3 emissions from agriculture can be further reduced with the implementation of proven and feasible measures (substitution of fertilizers, improved storage of manure, way fertilizer injections, etc.,...), in order to reduce PM concentrations and their impacts on human health across Europe

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios - using the reduced-complexity climate-carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP con- centration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO2 emissions. By 2150, CO2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66 % for the present day to roughly 68 % to 85 % by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March-April-May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (similar to 5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a "hockey-stick" upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to - ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5 degrees C warming on the other.ISSN:1991-9603ISSN:1991-959