Os efeitos da economia e da Operação Lava-Jato na popularidade da Presidente Dilma Rousseff no período pré-impedimento

RESUMO Introdução:Oartigo testa a teoria do voto econômico e o efeito das denúncias de corrupção em processos de impeachment de Presidentes da República. A literatura sobre impedimentos na América Latina indica quatro condições para que ocorra queda presidencial: 1) diretrizes econômicas focadas em políticas de ajuste; 2) envolvimento do mandatário em escândalos de corrupção; 3) falta de apoio político no legislativo nacional; e 4) clima de opinião contra o presidente com a ocorrência de protestos de rua. Buscamos identificar as razões da perda de popularidade de Dilma Rousseff que serviu de pano de fundo para o seu impeachment no Congresso Nacional brasileiro em 2016. Nossa hipótese foi que: a) a avaliação negativa da economia; b) a percepção da economia como um dos três principais problemas do país; e c) a percepção da corrupção como um dos três principais problemas do país influenciaram a reprovação à presidente Dilma Rousseff. Materiais e Métodos: Os dados advêm de surveys realizados pelo Instituto Ibope em março, agosto e novembro de 2015. Foram elaborados seis modelos logit ordenados para testar a hipótese. Resultados: Foi possível constatar que as três variáveis tiveram impacto na avaliação da presidente Dilma, confirmando a ideia de escudo popular de Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, segundo a qual a insatisfação com o desempenho do mandatário na economia o vulnerabiliza junto à opinião pública quando há denúncias de corrupção. Discussão: A perda do escudo popular serve então para encorajar a adesão ao processo de impeachment pelos parlamentares levando assim adiante o processo.PALAVRAS-CHAVE: impeachment presidencial; voto econômico; corrupção; opinião pública; Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT). The effects of economy and Operation Car Wash on the popularity of President Dilma Rousseff in thepre-impeachment periodABSTRACT Introduction: The article tests the economic theory of vote choice and the effects of corruption report on the impeachment processes of presidents of the Republic. Latin American literature on impeachment points out four conditions for presidential deposition to take place: 1) economic policy stressing fiscal adjustment; 2) president’s involvement in corruption scandals; 3) lack of political support in the national legislative power and 4) public opinion against the president resulting in street protests. We tried to identify the reasons why Dilma Rousseff lost its popularity, a background condition for her impeachment by the Brazilian National Congress in 2016. Our hypotheses is that a) the negative evaluation of the economy; b) the perception of economic crisis as one of the three most important problems of the country and c) the perception of corruption as also one of the three most important problems of the country influenced the disapproval to Dilma Rousseff’s government. Materials and Methods: Data were gathered from surveys made by Ibope Institute in March, August and November 2015. We elaborated six ordered logit models to test the hypothesis. Results: We managed to observe that the three variables had an impact in the evaluation of Dilma Rousseff’s government, so confirming the “popular shield” ideia by Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, according to which the dissatisfaction with president’s performance on the economy makes him or her vulnerable before public opinion when there are reports of corruption. Discussion: The loss of the “popular shield” then encourages member of the Congress to support the impeachment process and thus move it forward.KEYWORDS: presidential impeachment; economic vote; corruption scandals; public opinion; Workers’ Party (PT)

Da expectativa de vitória à derrota: estratégias discursivas do PT em Curitiba e Porto Alegre em 2004

Resumo As eleições municipais de 2004 foram as primeiras depois que o PT chegou ao Governo Federal. Instigava saber a estratégia discursiva do partido que vinha numa trajetória de moderação discursiva. Para este estudo, tomamos como objeto as estratégias do PT nas eleições de Porto Alegre e Curitiba. A escolha das capitais está fundamentada no antagonismo dos cenários políticos e da inserção do PT nas disputas, na primeira ele era situação, enquanto na segunda era oposição. Adotamos uma metodologia inspirada na proposta elaborada pelo grupo coordenado por Marcus Figueiredo para o estudo dos spots eleitorais, adaptada por nós para a análise dos ‘Horários Gratuitos de Propaganda Eleitoral’ (HGPE). Podemos afirmar que não houve um discurso padrão do PT que foi derrotado. Mas, muitas semelhanças existiram entre as estratégias de seus adversários. Palavras-chave: PT; estratégias de retórica política; propaganda política; Horário Gratuito de Propaganda Eleitoral.   Abstract The 2004 municipal elections were the first held after the Workers Party (PT) reached the Presidency. This research is interested in identifying the discursive strategy adopted by the party, which was in the path of moderation. As the object of analysis we chose the strategies adopted by the party in the elections in Porto Alegre and Curitiba. The choice of the two capitals was based on the difference between the political scenarios and the insertion of the PT in disputes in both. In  Porto Alegre, the party occupied the local government, while in  Curitiba it was in the opposition. We adopted a methodology based on the proposal prepared by Marcus Figueiredo for the study of electoral spots, adapted by us to the analysis of the  Horario Gratuito de Propaganda Eleitoral [Free Time for Electoral Propaganda]. We can say that the PT that was defeated did not  adopt a standard rhetorical strategy. But there were many  similarities in the strategies of their opponents. Key-words: PT; strategy of electoral rhetoric; political advertising; Free Time for Electoral Propaganda

Can Conditional Cash Transfer Programs Generate Equality of Opportunity in Higlye Unequal Societies? Evidence from Brazil

This article examines whether the state, through conditional cash transfer programs (CCT), can reduce the poverty and extremely poverty in societies marred by high levels of income concentration. We focus on one of the most unequal countries in the globe, Brazil, and analyze the extent to which this country’s CCT program – Bolsa Família (BF, Family Grant) program – is able to improve the life chances of extremely poor beneficiaries, through the three major goals of PBF: First, to immediately end hunger; second, to create basic social rights related to healthcare and education; finally, considering also complementary policies, to integrate adults into the job market. The analysis relies on a quantitative survey with 4,000 beneficiaries and a qualitative survey comprised of in-depth interviews with 38 program’s participants from all the regions of the country in 2008, it means that this study is about the five first years of the PBF. In order to answer the research questions, we ran four probit analyses related: a) the determinants of the realization of prenatal care; b) the determinants of food security among BF beneficiaries, c) the determinants that adult BF recipients will return to school, d) the determinants that a BF beneficiary will obtain a job. Important results from the study are: First, those who before their participation on PBF were at the margins have now been able to access healthcare services on a more regular basis. Thus, the women at the margins who were systematically excluded – black women, poorly educated and from the North – now, after their participation in the CCT program,  have more access to prenatal care  and can now count with more availability of public healthcare network. Second, before entering the Bolsa Família program, 50.3% of the participants faced severe food insecurity. This number went down to 36.8% in very five years. Men are more likely than women; non-blacks more likely than blacks; and South and Centre-West residents more likely than Brazilians from other regions; to become food secure while participating in BF. Third, instead, that moment in 2008, a small proportion of the adult participants indeed were able to return to school and to increase their educational qualifications. The lack of technical skills and the huge predominance of informal employment are central social problems in Brazil and that the PBF has failed to address such issues. This study confirms what other previous studies have reported on: BF has had a positive impact in reducing poverty in the country. Hence the main contribution of the present study is in identifying the main determinants of unequal results among individuals participating in the BF program: why some, but not others, are more easily able to access the healthcare or to overcome food insecurity while in the program?

Trichoderma harzianum no Desenvolvimento e na Proteção de Mudas contra a Fusariose do Tomateiro

The fusarial wilt of the tomato is a disease difficult of being controland it is looked for in the biocontrole an alternative. The objectiv of thework went to verify the action isolates of T. harzianum in the developmentand in the protection of seedlings against the fusarial wilt of the tomato.Treatments of seeds with three isolates and mix of T. harzianum being usedto evaluate germination, emergency and development of seedlings. Two forms of the biocontrole agents application were used, through seed andsubstratum, and for the seeds they were also accomplished biological andchemical treatments, for the evaluation of the incidence and severity of thefusarial wilt. It was observed that the isolates of Trichoderma did notpromote the germination and emergency of the tomato. In this treatmentsof seeds and substratum, the smallest incidence percentages were found bytreatment HTSR5 + Rhodiauram and the rate of 0,5 g of powder (HTSR5).A fusariose do tomateiro é uma doença difícil de ser controlada ebusca-se no biocontrole uma alternativa. O objetivo do trabalho foi verificara ação de isolados de Trichoderma harzianum no desenvolvimento e naproteção de mudas contra a fusariose do tomateiro. Foi utilizado tratamentode sementes com três isolados e um mix de T. harzianum, para avaliargerminação, emergência e desenvolvimento de mudas. Para o controleda fusariose foram utilizadas duas formas de aplicação dos agentes debiocontrole, via semente e substrato, sendo que para as sementes foramrealizados, também, tratamentos biológico e químico. Observou-se que osisolados de T. harzianum não promoveram a germinação e emergência dotomateiro. Para os tratamentos de semente ou substrato, as menores incidênciasforam encontradas no tratamento Rhodiauram + HTSR5 e a dosede 0,5g de pó (HTSR5), respectivamente

New Insights on the Zika Virus Arrival in the Americas and Spatiotemporal Reconstruction of the Epidemic Dynamics in Brazil.

Zika virus (ZIKV) became a worldwide public health emergency after its introduction in the Americas. Brazil was implicated as central in the ZIKV dispersion, however, a better understanding of the pathways the virus took to arrive in Brazil and the dispersion within the country is needed. An updated genome dataset was assembled with publicly available data. Bayesian phylogeography methods were applied to reconstruct the spatiotemporal history of ZIKV in the Americas and with more detail inside Brazil. Our analyses reconstructed the Brazilian state of Pernambuco as the likely point of introduction of ZIKV in Brazil, possibly during the 2013 Confederations Cup. Pernambuco played an important role in spreading the virus to other Brazilian states. Our results also underscore the long cryptic circulation of ZIKV in all analyzed locations in Brazil. Conclusions: This study brings new insights about the early moments of ZIKV in the Americas, especially regarding the Brazil-Haiti cluster at the base of the American clade and describing for the first time migration patterns within Brazil

Case Fatality Rate Related to Microcephaly Congenital Zika Syndrome and Associated Factors: A Nationwide Retrospective Study in Brazil †.

BACKGROUND: The clinical manifestations of microcephaly/congenital Zika syndrome (microcephaly/CZS) have harmful consequences on the child's health, increasing vulnerability to childhood morbidity and mortality. This study analyzes the case fatality rate and child-maternal characteristics of cases and deaths related to microcephaly/CZS in Brazil, 2015-2017. METHODS: Population-based study developed by linkage of three information systems. We estimate frequencies of cases, deaths, case fatality rate related to microcephaly/CZS according to child and maternal characteristics and causes of death. Multivariate logistic regression models were applied. RESULTS: The microcephaly/CZS case fatality rate was 10% (95% CI 9.2-10.7). Death related to microcephaly/CZS was associated to moderate (OR = 2.15; 95% CI 1.63-2.83), and very low birth weight (OR = 3.77; 95% CI 2.20-6.46); late preterm births (OR = 1.65; 95% CI 1.21-2.23), Apgar < 7 at 1st (OR = 5.98; 95% CI 4.46-8.02) and 5th minutes (OR = 4.13; 95% CI 2.78-6.13), among others. CONCLUSIONS: A high microcephaly/CZS case fatality rate and important factors associated with deaths related to this syndrome were observed. These results can alert health teams to these problems and increase awareness about the factors that may be associated with worse outcomes

Estratégias de aquisição da casa própria: a trajetória de algumas famílias negras paulistanas nas décadas de 1920 a 1940

In Brazil, there is a cultural belief that property acquisition is the wisest attitude to ensure a safe and stable economy. For generations, the "dream of property ownership" has been cultivated as a horizon to be achieved. Confirming this tendency, since the 1920s, "casa propria" (home ownership) became a notion mobilized in the black press periodicals, circulating as a desirable aspiration and an orientation to the journals public. Between 1924 and 1937, two of the main newspapers of São Paulo black press, O Clarim da Alvorada and A Voz da Raça, carried out a campaign in favor of property ownership, spreading among paulista black families the importance of property acquisition. These campaigns are an important sign for the relevance of buying a property for black families at that time. In this paper, we seek to analyze it as an intergenerational social security strategy, through the presentation of three cases of black families that accomplished this goal between 1920s and 1940s. The black families testimonies reported here indicate precocity, specificities and strategies that represent new challenges for the formulation of property ownership problem, from a racial point of view.No Brasil, há uma crença cultural de que a atitude mais sábia para garantir uma economia doméstica segura e estável é a aquisição da casa própria. Por gerações, o “sonho da casa própria” tem sido cultivado como um horizonte a se atingir. Confirmando essa tendência, desde a década de 1920, a “casa própria” torna-se uma noção mobilizada nos periódicos da imprensa negra, circulando em diversos artigos como uma aspiração desejável e uma orientação ao público dos jornais. Entre 1924 e 1937, dois dos principais jornais da imprensa negra paulista, O Clarim da Alvorada e A Voz da Raça, realizaram uma campanha em favor da casa própria, difundindo entre as famílias negras paulistanas a ideia da importância da aquisição imobiliária. Essas campanhas constituem um indício importante da relevância da aquisição residencial para as famílias negras do período. Neste trabalho, procuramos analisar essa importância como estratégia de seguridade social intergeracional, por meio da apresentação de três casos de famílias negras que realizaram esse objetivo entre as décadas de 1920 e 1940. Os depoimentos das famílias negras aqui reportados indicamprecocidade, especificidades e estratégias que representam novos desafios para a reflexão sobre a formulação do problema da casa própria, a partir do ponto de vista racial