On the cause of thermal erosion on ice-rich permafrost (Lena River Delta/ Siberia) - An assessment on geomorphological parameters for erosion susceptibility mapping using logistic regression

Vast parts of Arctic Siberia are underlain by ice-rich permafrost, which is exposed to different processes of degradation due to global warming. Thermal erosion as a key process for landscape degradation causes the recent reactivation and formation of new landforms like thermoerosional valleys and gullies. However, a statistical assessment about the decisive factors and the locations most susceptible for this phenomenon is still missing. This study investigates the influence of different geomorphological parameters on the occurrence of recently observed thermal erosion using a GIS-based approach and statistical modeling by logistic regression. The study site is located on an island within the Arctic Lena River Delta and is mainly composed of ice- and organic-rich deposits. Field surveys and mapping of high-resolution remotely sensed data revealed that thermal erosion occurs predominantly i) on very steep slopes along the margins of the island, ii) in the upper reaches of deeply incised thermo-erosional valleys and iii) in thermo-erosional gullies. Several potentially influencing environmental parameters were derived by a combination of high-resolution satellite imagery and 2 m-DEM. The full set of parameters was reduced stepwise within the logistic regression model. This approach allows the selection of a parsimonious model, i.e. a best-fit model using as few variables as possible. The parameters Contribution of warm open surface water, Relief ratio, Direct solar radiation and Snow accumulation turned out be the decisive factors for thermal erosion. Uncertainties in the model due to sampling and model selection were evaluated statistically and spatially through the generation of 100 models. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROCs) were used to validate the spatial predictive capability of each model run. The consensus map as the median of all susceptibility models represents the final susceptibility map. The agreement between mapped and predicted erosion is generally very high within the study site, confirmed by an Area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.957 for the consensus map. The variability of predicted erosion probabilities between the single models is about four percentage points per cell within the study site and thus, very low. Mismatches between observed and predicted erosion could be attributed to the generation of the explanatory environmental parameters and the modeling approach. Model results seem promising for the spatial prediction of susceptible sites for thermal erosion, but require external validation on other sites with comparable environmental conditions

Thermal erosion of ice-rich permafrost in the Lena River Delta / Siberia – Determining the decisive factors using logistic regression

Vast parts of Arctic Siberia are underlain by ice-rich permafrost, which is exposed to different processes of degradation due to global warming. Thermal erosion as a key process for landscape degradation in these regions causes the recent reactivation and formation of new landforms like thermo-erosional valleys and gullies. However, a statistical assessment about the decisive factors and the locations most susceptible to this phenomenon is still missing. We investigated the influence of different environmental parameters on the occurrence of recently observed thermal erosion using a GIS-based approach and statistical modeling by logistic regression. The study site is located on an island within the Arctic Lena River Delta and is mainly composed of ice- and organic-rich deposits of the Yedomatype Ice Complex. Field surveys and mapping on the basis of high-resolution remotely sensed data revealed that thermal erosion occurs predominantly i) on very steep slopes along the margins of the island, ii) in the upper reaches of deeply incised valleys and iii) in gullies. In order to detect the regulation factors for those thermo-erosional landforms, we derived several environmental parameters using a high-resolution DEM and satellite imagery. We chose a stepwise logistic regression approach to reduce the full set of potential parameters. This approach allowed the selection of a parsimonious model, i.e. a best-fit model using as few parameters as possible. The parameters Contribution of warm open surface water, Relief ratio, Direct solar radiation and Snow accumulation turned out to be the decisive factors for thermal erosion. Uncertainties in the model due to sampling and model selection were valuated both statistically and spatially through the generation of 100 models. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROCs) were used to validate the spatial predictive capability of each model run. The consensus map as the median of all 100 susceptibility models represents the final susceptibility map. The agreement between mapped and predicted erosion turned out to be generally very high within the study site, confirmed by an Area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.957 for the consensus map. The variability of predicted erosion probabilities between the single models is about four percentage points per cell within the study site and thus, very low. We attributed the slight mismatches between observed and predicted erosion to the generation of the explanatory environmental parameters and the modeling approach. Model results seem promising for the spatial prediction of susceptible sites for thermal erosion and, thus, could be a tool to explain the geomorphic forming in this rapidly changing environment. As these results are based on a single case study, future investigation should focus on the transferability of the model by applying an external validation on other sites with comparable environmental conditions

Effects of finite source rupture on landslide triggering: the 2016 Mw 7.1 Kumamoto earthquake

The propagation of a seismic rupture on a fault introduces spatial variations in the seismic wave field surrounding the fault. This directivity effect results in larger shaking amplitudes in the rupture propagation direction. Its seismic radiation pattern also causes amplitude variations between the strike-normal and strike-parallel components of horizontal ground motion. We investigated the landslide response to these effects during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mw 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Although the distribution of some 1500 earthquake-triggered landslides as a function of rupture distance is consistent with the observed Arias intensity, the landslides were more concentrated to the northeast of the southwest–northeast striking rupture. We examined several landslide susceptibility factors: hillslope inclination, the median amplification factor (MAF) of ground shaking, lithology, land cover, and topographic wetness. None of these factors sufficiently explains the landslide distribution or orientation (aspect), although the landslide head scarps have an elevated hillslope inclination and MAF. We propose a new physics-based ground-motion model (GMM) that accounts for the seismic rupture effects, and we demonstrate that the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern is consistent with the overall landslide distribution. Its spatial pattern is influenced by the rupture directivity effect, whereas landslide aspect is influenced by amplitude variations between the fault-normal and fault-parallel motion at frequencies <2 Hz. This azimuth dependence implies that comparable landslide concentrations can occur at different distances from the rupture. This quantitative link between the prevalent landslide aspect and the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern can improve coseismic landslide hazard assessment

Less extreme and earlier outbursts of ice-dammed lakes since 1900

Episodic failures of ice-dammed lakes have produced some of the largest floods in history, with disastrous consequences for communities in high mountains1–7. Yet, estimating changes in the activity of ice-dam failures through time remains controversial because of inconsistent regional flood databases. Here, by collating 1,569 ice-dam failures in six major mountain regions, we systematically assess trends in peak discharge, volume, annual timing and source elevation between 1900 and 2021. We show that extreme peak flows and volumes (10 per cent highest) have declined by about an order of magnitude over this period in five of the six regions, whereas median flood discharges have fallen less or have remained unchanged. Ice-dam floods worldwide today originate at higher elevations and happen about six weeks earlier in the year than in 1900. Individual ice-dammed lakes with repeated outbursts show similar negative trends in magnitude and earlier occurrence, although with only moderate correlation to glacier thinning8. We anticipate that ice dams will continue to fail in the near future, even as glaciers thin and recede. Yet widespread deglaciation, projected for nearly all regions by the end of the twenty-first century9, may bring most outburst activity to a halt

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021):a research community perspective

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most concerning consequences of retreating glaciers in mountain ranges worldwide. GLOFs have attracted significant attention amongst scientists and practitioners in the past 2 decades, with particular interest in the physical drivers and mechanisms of GLOF hazard and in socioeconomic and other human-related developments that affect vulnerabilities to GLOF events. This increased research focus on GLOFs is reflected in the gradually increasing number of papers published annually. This study offers an overview of recent GLOF research by analysing 594 peer-reviewed GLOF studies published between 2017 and 2021 (Web of Science and Scopus databases), reviewing the content and geographical focus as well as other characteristics of GLOF studies. This review is complemented with perspectives from the first GLOF conference (7-9 July 2021, online) where a global GLOF research community of major mountain regions gathered to discuss the current state of the art of integrated GLOF research. Therefore, representatives from 17 countries identified and elaborated trends and challenges and proposed possible ways forward to navigate future GLOF research, in four thematic areas: (i) understanding GLOFs - timing and processes; (ii) modelling GLOFs and GLOF process chains; (iii) GLOF risk management, prevention and warning; and (iv) human dimensions of GLOFs and GLOF attribution to climate change.Fil: Emmer, Adam. University of Graz; AustriaFil: Allen, Simon K.. Universitat Zurich; Suiza. Universidad de Ginebra; SuizaFil: Carey, Mark. University of Oregon; Estados UnidosFil: Frey, Holger. Universitat Zurich; SuizaFil: Huggel, Christian. Universitat Zurich; SuizaFil: Korup, Oliver. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Mergili, Martin. University of Graz; AustriaFil: Sattar, Ashim. Universitat Zurich; SuizaFil: Veh, Georg. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Chen, Thomas Y.. Columbia University; Estados UnidosFil: Cook, Simon J.. University Of Dundee; Reino Unido. Unesco. Centre For Water Law, Policy And Science; Reino UnidoFil: Correas Gonzalez, Mariana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Das, Soumik. Jawaharlal Nehru University; IndiaFil: Diaz Moreno, Alejandro. Reynolds International Ltd; Reino UnidoFil: Drenkhan, Fabian. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Perú; PerúFil: Fischer, Melanie. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Immerzeel, Walter W.. Utrecht University; Países BajosFil: Izagirre, Eñaut. Universidad del País Vasco; EspañaFil: Joshi, Ramesh Chandra. Kumaun University India; IndiaFil: Kougkoulos, Ioannis. American College Of Greece; GreciaFil: Kuyakanon Knapp, Riamsara. University of Oslo; Noruega. University of Cambridge; Estados UnidosFil: Li, Dongfeng. National University Of Singapore; SingapurFil: Majeed, Ulfat. University Of Kashmir; IndiaFil: Matti, Stephanie. Haskoli Islands; IslandiaFil: Moulton, Holly. University of Oregon; Estados UnidosFil: Nick, Faezeh. Utrecht University; Países BajosFil: Piroton, Valentine. Université de Liège; BélgicaFil: Rashid, Irfan. University Of Kashmir; IndiaFil: Reza, Masoom. Kumaun University India; IndiaFil: Ribeiro De Figueiredo, Anderson. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Riveros, Christian. Instituto Nacional de Investigación En Glaciares y Ecosistemas de Montaña; PerúFil: Shrestha, Finu. International Centre For Integrated Mountain Development Nepal; NepalFil: Shrestha, Milan. Arizona State University; Estados UnidosFil: Steiner, Jakob. International Centre For Integrated Mountain Development Nepal; NepalFil: Walker-Crawford, Noah. Colegio Universitario de Londres; Reino UnidoFil: Wood, Joanne L.. University of Exeter; Reino UnidoFil: Yde, Jacob C.. Western Norway University Of Applied Sciences; Suiz

The Nachtlichter app: a citizen science tool for documenting outdoor light sources in public space

The relationship between satellite based measurements of city radiance at night and the numbers and types of physical lights installed on the ground is not well understood. Here we present the "Nachtlichter app", which was developed to enable citizen scientists to classify and count light sources along street segments over large spatial scales. The project and app were co-designed: citizen scientists played key roles in the app development, testing, and recruitment, as well as in analysis of the data. In addition to describing the app itself and the data format, we provide a general overview of the project, including training materials, data cleaning, and the result of some basic data consistency checks

Questar3D : hochpräzise Erosionsforschung in unterschiedlichen Klimaten Europas

Seit August 2013 werden unter der Federführung der Katholischen Universität Eichstätt-Ingolstadt die komplexen Wirkungszusammenhänge von Hangabtrag auf steilen Erosionshängen untersucht. In einem länderübergreifenden Transekt ausgehend von der Fränkischen Alb über die Nord- und Zentralalpen bis in die italienische Toskana sollen Erosionsraten mit neuesten Techniken wie Terrestrischem Laserscanning und drohnengestützter Stereophotogrammetrie quantifiziert werden. Mit bereits bestehenden Erosionsmodellen wird versucht, den Sedimentaustrag von kleinen Einzugsgebieten auf ganze Regionen zu übertragen. Der Artikel geht im Besonderen auf das Projektdesign ein und beleuchtet die Gründe für die Auswahl der Untersuchungsgebiete. Bereits jetzt lässt sich eine variierende Erosionsdynamik in den Testgebieten erkennen, deren Ursache durch mehrmalige Aufnahmen in den nächsten Jahren ermittelt wird

Surface topography and roughness along the Seti Khola (Pokhara Valley, Nepal) measured in-field in 2016 and 2019

The Seti Khola (=river) runs along one of the steepest topographic gradients in the Central Himalayas and is the main drainage system of the Pokhara Valley, home to the eponymous city with an estimated population of half a million. In the Pokhara Valley, the Seti Khola runs through a distinct landscape dominated by broad, unpaired, alluvial terraces which abruptly alternate with short (<1 km) reaches, where the river flows through narrow (<10 m) and deep (up to 90 m) gorges. In order to facilitate hydrodynamic modelling of one-dimensional, steady flow in HEC-RAS 5.0.7, we surveyed the Seti Khola's channel and overbank topography as well as surface roughness along a 30-km long reach. During two field-visits (October 2016 and October 2019), we surveyed a total of 95 river cross sections utilising a TruPulse 360 laser range finder and a Garmin eTrex handheld GPS. Additionally, during our October 2019 field-season, we also estimated surface roughness or Manning's n of the Seti Khola's channel and left and right overbank at 61 locations –using the determination methodology described by Arcement Jr and Schneider (1984; doi:10.3133/wsp2339) and Chow (1959)