Stochastic Stick - Slip Model Linking Crustal Shear Strength and Earthquake Interevent Times

The current understanding of the earthquake interevent times distribution (ITD) is incomplete. The Weibull distribution is often used to model the earthquake ITD. We link the earthquake ITD on single faults with the Earth's crustal shear strength distribution by means of a phenomenological stick - slip model. We obtain Weibull ITD for power-law stress accumulation, i.e., $\sigma(t) = \alpha t^{\beta}$, where $\beta >0$ for single faults or systems with homogeneous strength statistics. We show that logarithmic stress accumulation leads to the log-Weibull ITD. For the Weibull ITD, we prove that (i) $m= \beta m_s$, where $m$ and $m_s$ are, respectively, the ITD and crustal shear strength Weibull moduli and (ii) the time scale $\tau_s = (S_s/\alpha)^{1/\beta}$ where $S_s$ is the scale of crustal shear strength. We generalize the ITD model for fault systems. We investigate deviations of the ITD tails from the Weibull due to sampling bias, magnitude selection, and non-homogeneous strength parameters. Assuming the Gutenberg - Richter law and independence of $m$ on the magnitude threshold, $M_{L,c},$ we deduce that $\tau_s \propto e^{- \rho_{M} M_{L,c}},$ where $\rho_M \in [1.15, 3.45]$ for seismically active regions. We demonstrate that a microearthquake sequence conforms reasonably well to the Weibull model. The stochastic stick - slip model justifies the Weibull ITD for single faults and homogeneous fault systems, while it suggests mixtures of Weibull distributions for heterogeneous fault systems. Non-universal deviations from Weibull statistics are possible, even for single faults, due to magnitude thresholds and non-uniform parameter values.Comment: 32 pages, 11 figures Version 2; minor correction

Quaternary Geometry, Kinematics and Paleoearthquake History at the Intersection of the Strike-Slip North Island Fault System and Taupo Rift, New Zealand

The North Island of New Zealand sits astride the Hikurangi margin along which the oceanic Pacific Plate is being obliquely subducted beneath the continental Australian Plate. The North Island Fault System1 (NIFS), in the North Island of New Zealand, is the principal active strike-slip fault system in the overriding Australian Plate accommodating up to 30% of the margin parallel plate motion. This study focuses on the northern termination of the NIFS, near its intersection with the active Taupo Rift, and comprises three complementary components of research: 1) the investigation of the late Quaternary (c. 30 kyr) geometries and kinematics of the northern NIFS as derived from displaced geomorphic landforms and outcrop geology, 2) examination of the spatial and temporal distribution of paleoearthquakes in the NIFS over the last 18 kyr, as derived by fault-trenching and displaced landforms, and consideration of how these distributions may have produced the documented late Quaternary (c. 30 kyr) kinematics of the northern NIFS, and 3) Investigation of the temporal stability of the late Quaternary (c. 30 kyr) geometries and kinematics throughout the Quaternary (1-2 Ma), derived from gravity, seismic-reflection, drillhole, topographic and outcrop data. The late Quaternary (c. 30 kyr) kinematics of the northern NIFS transition northward along strike, from strike-slip to oblique-normal faulting, adjacent to the rift. With increasing proximity to the Taupo Rift the slip vector pitch on each of the faults in the NIFS steepens gradually by up to 60 degrees, while the mean fault-dip decreases from 90 degrees to 60 degrees W. Adjustments in the kinematics of the NIFS reflect the gradual accommodation of the NW-SE extension that is distributed outside the main physiographic boundary of the Taupo Rift. Sub-parallelism of slip vectors in the NIFS with the line of intersection between the two synchronous fault systems reduces potential space problems and facilitates the development of a kinematically coherent fault intersection, which allows the strike-slip component of slip to be transferred into the rift. Transfer of displacement from the NIFS into the rift accounts for a significant amount of the northeastward increase of extension along the rift. Steepening of the pitch of slip vectors towards the northern termination of the NIFS allows the kinematics and geometry of faulting to change efficiently, from strike-lip to normal faulting, providing an alternative mechanism to vertical axis rotations for terminating large strike-lip faults. Analyses of kinematic constraints from worldwide examples of synchronous strike-lip and normal faults that intersect to form two or three plate configurations, within either oceanic or continental crust, suggest that displacement is often transferred between the two fault systems in a similar manner to that documented at the NIFS - Taupo Rift fault intersection. The late Quaternary (c. 30 kyr) change in the kinematics of the NIFS along strike, from dominantly strike-slip to oblique-normal faulting, arises due to a combination of rupture arrest during individual earthquakes and variations in the orientation of the coseismic slip vectors. At least 80 % of all surface rupturing earthquakes appear to have terminated within the kinematic transition zone from strike-slip to oblique-normal slip. Fault segmentation reduces the magnitudes of large surface rupturing earthquakes in the northern NIFS from 7.4-7.6 to c. 7.0. Interdependence of throw rates between the NIFS and Taupo Rift suggests that the intersection of the two fault systems has functioned coherently for much of the last 0.6-1.5 Myr. Oblique-normal slip faults in the NIFS and the Edgecumbe Fault in the rift accommodated higher throw rates since 300 kyr than during the last 0.6-1.5 Myr. Acceleration of these throw rates may have occurred in response to eastward migration of rifting, increasing both the rates of faulting and the pitch of slip vectors. The late Quaternary (e.g. 30 kyr) kinematics, and perhaps also the stability, of the intersection zone has been geologically short lived and applied for the last c. 300 kyr

Slow Slip Triggers the 2018 Mw 6.9 Zakynthos Earthquake Within the Weakly Locked Hellenic Subduction System, Greece

Slow slip events (SSEs) at subduction zones can precede large-magnitude earthquakes and may serve as precursor indicators, but the triggering of earthquakes by slow slip remains insufficiently understood. Here, we combine geodetic, Coulomb wedge and Coulomb failure-stress models with seismological data to explore the potential causal relationship between two SSEs and the 2018 Mw 6.9 Zakynthos Earthquake within the Hellenic Subduction System. We show that both SSEs released up to 10 mm of aseismic slip on the plate-interface and were accompanied by an increase in upper-plate seismicity rate. While the first SSE in late 2014 generated only mild Coulomb failure stress changes (≤3 kPa), that were nevertheless sufficient to destabilize faults of various kinematics in the overriding plate, the second SSE in 2018 caused stress changes up to 25 kPa prior to the mainshock. Collectively, these stress changes affected a highly overpressured and mechanically weak forearc, whose state of stress fluctuated between horizontal deviatoric compression and tension during the years preceding the Zakynthos Earthquake. We conclude that this configuration facilitated episodes of aseismic and seismic deformation that ultimately triggered the Zakynthos Earthquake

Using a calibrated upper living position of marine biota to calculate coseismic uplift: a case study of the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand

The 2016 Mw=7.8 Kaikōura earthquake (South Island, New Zealand) caused widespread complex ground deformation, including significant coastal uplift of rocky shorelines. This coastal deformation is used here to develop a new methodology, in which the upper living limits of intertidal marine biota have been calibrated against tide-gauge records to quantitatively constrain pre-deformation biota living position relative to sea level. This living position is then applied to measure coseismic uplift at three other locations along the Kaikōura coast. We then assess how coseismic uplift derived using this calibrated biological method compares to that measured using other methods, such as light detection and ranging (lidar) and strong-motion data, as well as non-calibrated biological methods at the same localities. The results show that where biological data are collected by a real-time kinematic (RTK) global navigation satellite system (GNSS) in sheltered locations, this new tide-gauge calibration method estimates tectonic uplift with an accuracy of ±≤0.07 m in the vicinity of the tide gauge and an overall mean accuracy of ±0.10 m or 10 % compared to differential lidar methods for all locations. Sites exposed to high wave wash, or data collected by tape measure, are more likely to show higher uplift results. Tectonic uplift estimates derived using predictive tidal charts produce overall higher uplift estimates in comparison to tide-gauge-calibrated and instrumental methods, with mean uplift results 0.21 m or 20 % higher than lidar results. This low-tech methodology can, however, produce uplift results that are broadly consistent with instrumental methodologies and may be applied with confidence in remote locations where lidar or local tide-gauge measurements are not available

Quaternary Geometry, Kinematics and Paleoearthquake History at the Intersection of the Strike-Slip North Island Fault System and Taupo Rift, New Zealand

The North Island of New Zealand sits astride the Hikurangi margin along which the oceanic Pacific Plate is being obliquely subducted beneath the continental Australian Plate. The North Island Fault System1 (NIFS), in the North Island of New Zealand, is the principal active strike-slip fault system in the overriding Australian Plate accommodating up to 30% of the margin parallel plate motion. This study focuses on the northern termination of the NIFS, near its intersection with the active Taupo Rift, and comprises three complementary components of research: 1) the investigation of the late Quaternary (c. 30 kyr) geometries and kinematics of the northern NIFS as derived from displaced geomorphic landforms and outcrop geology, 2) examination of the spatial and temporal distribution of paleoearthquakes in the NIFS over the last 18 kyr, as derived by fault-trenching and displaced landforms, and consideration of how these distributions may have produced the documented late Quaternary (c. 30 kyr) kinematics of the northern NIFS, and 3) Investigation of the temporal stability of the late Quaternary (c. 30 kyr) geometries and kinematics throughout the Quaternary (1-2 Ma), derived from gravity, seismic-reflection, drillhole, topographic and outcrop data. The late Quaternary (c. 30 kyr) kinematics of the northern NIFS transition northward along strike, from strike-slip to oblique-normal faulting, adjacent to the rift. With increasing proximity to the Taupo Rift the slip vector pitch on each of the faults in the NIFS steepens gradually by up to 60 degrees, while the mean fault-dip decreases from 90 degrees to 60 degrees W. Adjustments in the kinematics of the NIFS reflect the gradual accommodation of the NW-SE extension that is distributed outside the main physiographic boundary of the Taupo Rift. Sub-parallelism of slip vectors in the NIFS with the line of intersection between the two synchronous fault systems reduces potential space problems and facilitates the development of a kinematically coherent fault intersection, which allows the strike-slip component of slip to be transferred into the rift. Transfer of displacement from the NIFS into the rift accounts for a significant amount of the northeastward increase of extension along the rift. Steepening of the pitch of slip vectors towards the northern termination of the NIFS allows the kinematics and geometry of faulting to change efficiently, from strike-lip to normal faulting, providing an alternative mechanism to vertical axis rotations for terminating large strike-lip faults. Analyses of kinematic constraints from worldwide examples of synchronous strike-lip and normal faults that intersect to form two or three plate configurations, within either oceanic or continental crust, suggest that displacement is often transferred between the two fault systems in a similar manner to that documented at the NIFS - Taupo Rift fault intersection. The late Quaternary (c. 30 kyr) change in the kinematics of the NIFS along strike, from dominantly strike-slip to oblique-normal faulting, arises due to a combination of rupture arrest during individual earthquakes and variations in the orientation of the coseismic slip vectors. At least 80 % of all surface rupturing earthquakes appear to have terminated within the kinematic transition zone from strike-slip to oblique-normal slip. Fault segmentation reduces the magnitudes of large surface rupturing earthquakes in the northern NIFS from 7.4-7.6 to c. 7.0. Interdependence of throw rates between the NIFS and Taupo Rift suggests that the intersection of the two fault systems has functioned coherently for much of the last 0.6-1.5 Myr. Oblique-normal slip faults in the NIFS and the Edgecumbe Fault in the rift accommodated higher throw rates since 300 kyr than during the last 0.6-1.5 Myr. Acceleration of these throw rates may have occurred in response to eastward migration of rifting, increasing both the rates of faulting and the pitch of slip vectors. The late Quaternary (e.g. 30 kyr) kinematics, and perhaps also the stability, of the intersection zone has been geologically short lived and applied for the last c. 300 kyr

Earthquake histories and Holocene acceleration of fault displacement rates

Displacement rates for normal and reverse faults (N = 57) are generally higher when averaged for the Holocene (~10 ka) than for the late Quaternary (~300 ka) and longer time scales. Holocene acceleration of displacement rates could be attributed to geological processes that produce increases of tectonic tempo. We propose an alternative model in which the observed rate changes arise from variability in earthquake slip and/or recurrence coupled with a sampling bias toward those faults that are best represented at the Earth’s surface and accrued displacement fastest during the Holocene. This model is consistent with displacement rates measured over time intervals of up to ~300 k.y. for 129 faults from the Taupo Rift, New Zealand. Departures of earthquake parameters and associated displacement rates from their long-term (>300 k.y.) averages are attributed to fault interactions and occur on time intervals inversely related to these long-term displacement rates and to regional strain rates.Irish Research Council for Science, Engineering and TechnologyUCD Presidents FellowshipMarsden FundFoundation for Research, Science and Technology (FRST

Fault displacement rates on a range of timescales

Displacements on tectonic faults primarily accrue during earthquakes at rates that vary through time. To examine the processes that underlie the temporal changes in fault displacement rates we analyse displacements and displacement rates for time periods from the present to 5, 10, 20, 300, 500, 1 000 and 5 000 kyr for 261 active reverse or normal faults from a worldwide dataset. Displacement rates depart from million-year average rates by up to three orders of magnitude with the size of these departures inversely related to fault length and the duration of the sample period. Short-term (≤ 20 kyr) displacement rates generally span a greater range on small faults than large, a feature which suggests more variable growth on smaller faults. Simple earthquake-slip modeling shows that variations in displacement rates require changes in both recurrence interval and slip per event and do not support the Characteristic-slip earthquake model. As long as fault system strain rates are uniform, displacement rates generally become constant over time periods between 20 - 300 kyr, with the length of time required to reach stability being inversely related to the regional basin-wide strain rates. Stable long-term displacements rates and fluctuations in earthquake recurrence intervals and slip arise, in part, due to fault interactions.Irish Research Council for Science, Engineering and TechnologyUniversity College Dublin, President’s Research Fellowship SchemeRoyal Society of New Zealand, Marsden Fun

Displacement Accumulation and Sampling of Paleoearthquakes on Active Normal Faults of Crete in the Eastern Mediterranean

Abstract Active normal faults on the Mediterranean island of Crete form prominent limestone scarps together with basin and range topography. These faults mainly strike E‐ESE and N‐NNE in southern and northern Crete, respectively, with fault sets commonly intersecting and northerly trending faults being a factor of 3 more abundant. Lengths, displacements, and displacement rates have been analyzed for 84 active faults sampled over 2 ± 0.5 Ma (long‐term) and 16.5 ± 2 ka (short‐term) time‐intervals, with half showing no resolvable short‐term activity. Active faults record earthquake processes on timescales of thousands to million years and constrain sampling biases, which can lead to under and over estimates of fault parameters. The available data provide no evidence for fault propagation and support a model in which fault lengths were established early in the development of the fault system. Short‐term displacement rates (0.09–1.2 mm/year) are generally higher than long‐term rates (0.002–0.7 mm/year), with a factor of 4 disparity in the average recurrence intervals for the two time periods (∼2.5 Kyr vs. ∼11 Kyr). We attribute these differences to “clustering” of surface‐rupturing (e.g., >Mw6) earthquakes on individual faults over millennial timescales, and to preferential sampling of the most seismically active faults during the short‐term. Displacement rates are comparable when averaged for each time interval on the longest faults (>10 km), indicating that for these faults earthquake “clustering” spans time‐intervals of  Mw6 on Crete are at least three times more frequent than historical earthquakes since ∼1920, possibly because multi‐fault surface‐rupturing earthquakes are double counted in the paleo‐record

Earthquake histories and Holocene acceleration of fault displacement rates

Displacement rates for normal and reverse faults (N = 57) are generally higher when averaged for the Holocene (~10 ka) than for the late Quaternary (~300 ka) and longer time scales. Holocene acceleration of displacement rates could be attributed to geological processes that produce increases of tectonic tempo. We propose an alternative model in which the observed rate changes arise from variability in earthquake slip and/or recurrence coupled with a sampling bias toward those faults that are best represented at the Earth’s surface and accrued displacement fastest during the Holocene. This model is consistent with displacement rates measured over time intervals of up to ~300 k.y. for 129 faults from the Taupo Rift, New Zealand. Departures of earthquake parameters and associated displacement rates from their long-term (>300 k.y.) averages are attributed to fault interactions and occur on time intervals inversely related to these long-term displacement rates and to regional strain rates.Irish Research Council for Science, Engineering and TechnologyUCD Presidents FellowshipMarsden FundFoundation for Research, Science and Technology (FRST

Normal faulting in the forearc of the Hellenic subduction margin: Paleoearthquake history and kinematics of the Spili Fault, Crete, Greece

International audienceThe late-Cenozoic kinematic and late-Pleistocene paleoearthquake history of the Spili Fault is examined using slip-vector measurements and in situ cosmogenic (Cl-36) dating, respectively. The Spili Fault appears to have undergone at least three successive but distinct phases of extension since Messinian (similar to 7 Ma), with the most recent faulting resulting in the exhumation of its carbonate plane for a fault-length of similar to 20 km. Earthquake-slip and age data show that the lower 9 m of the Spili Fault plane were exhumed during the last similar to 16,500 years through a minimum of five large-magnitude (Mw > 6) earthquakes. The timing between successive paleoearthquakes varied by more than one order of magnitude (from 800 to 9000 years), suggesting a highly variable earthquake recurrence interval during late Pleistocene (CV = 1). This variability resulted to significant fluctuations in the displacement rate of the Spili Fault, with the millennium rate (3.5 mm/yr) being about six times faster than its late-Pleistocene rate (0.6 mm/yr). The observed variability in the slip-size of the paleoearthquakes is, however, significantly smaller (CV = 0.3). These data collectively suggest that the Spili Fault is one of the fastest moving faults in the forearc of the Hellenic subduction margin. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved