Predicting the likelihood of successful medical treatment of early pregnancy loss:development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model

STUDY QUESTION: What are clinical predictors for successful medical treatment in case of early pregnancy loss (EPL)? SUMMARY ANSWER: Use of mifepristone, BMI, number of previous uterine aspirations and the presence of minor clinical symptoms (slight vaginal bleeding or some abdominal cramps) at treatment start are predictors for successful medical treatment in case of EPL. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Success rates of medical treatment for EPL vary strongly, between but also within different treatment regimens. Up until now, although some predictors have been identified, no clinical prediction model has been developed yet. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Secondary analysis of a multicentre randomized controlled trial in 17 Dutch hospitals, executed between 28 June 2018 and 8 January 2020. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Women with a non-viable pregnancy between 6 and 14 weeks of gestational age, who opted for medical treatment after a minimum of 1 week of unsuccessful expectant management. Potential predictors for successful medical treatment of EPL were chosen based on literature and expert opinions. We internally validated the prediction model using bootstrapping techniques. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: 237 out of 344 women had a successful medical EPL treatment (68.9%). The model includes the following variables: use of mifepristone, BMI, number of previous uterine aspirations and the presence of minor clinical symptoms (slight vaginal bleeding or some abdominal cramps) at treatment start. The model shows a moderate capacity to discriminate between success and failure of treatment, with an AUC of 67.6% (95% CI = 64.9-70.3%). The model had a good fit comparing predicted to observed probabilities of success but might underestimate treatment success in women with a predicted probability of success of ∼70%. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The vast majority (90.4%) of women were Caucasian, potentially leading to less optimal model performance in a non-Caucasian population. Limitations of our model are that we have not yet been able to externally validate its performance and clinical impact, and the moderate accuracy of the prediction model of 0.67. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: We developed a prediction model, aimed to improve and personalize counselling for medical treatment of EPL by providing a woman with her individual chance of complete evacuation. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): The Triple M Trial, upon which this secondary analysis was performed, was funded by the Healthcare Insurers Innovation Foundation (project number 3080 B15-191). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT03212352

Toll-like Receptor 4 Mediates Innate Immunity to Kaposi Sarcoma Herpesvirus

The involvement of Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) in immunity against human herpesviruses has not been previously demonstrated. We show that infection of endothelial cells with Kaposi sarcoma herpesvirus (KSHV), a human oncogenic virus, leads to rapid suppression of TLR4 expression. This is a mechanism of immune escape as TLR4 mediates innate immunity against KSHV. In vitro, cells lacking TLR4 are more susceptible to KSHV infection, whereas activation of TLR4 protects cells from infection. In vivo, HIV-1-infected individuals carrying a mutant TLR4 allele appear more likely to have multicentric Castleman's disease, a lymphoproliferation associated with enhanced KSHV replication. ERK activation by KSHV structural proteins and the KSHV-encoded vGPCR plays a key role in the TLR4 downregulation, whereas the KSHV vIRF1 also contributes to this effect. Our findings reveal a role for TLR4 in innate immunity against herpesviruses and suggest the potential use of TLR4 agonists for the treatment of KSHV-related neoplasms

Interleukin-6 and Cardiovascular and Kidney Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: New Insights From CANVAS

OBJECTIVE The inflammatory cytokine interleukin-6 (IL-6) is associated with cardiovascular (CV) and kidney outcomes in various populations. However, data in patients with type 2 diabetes are limited. We assessed the association of IL-6 with CV and kidney outcomes in the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study (CANVAS) and determined the effect of canagliflozin on IL-6. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Patients with type 2 diabetes at high CV risk were randomly assigned to canagliflozin or placebo. Plasma IL-6 was measured at baseline and years 1, 3, and 6. The composite CV outcome was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or CV death; the composite kidney outcome was sustained ≥40% estimated glomerular filtration rate decline, end-stage kidney disease, or kidney-related death. Multi-variable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the associations between IL-6 and the outcomes. The effect of canagliflozin on IL-6 over time was assessed with a repeated-measures mixed-effects model. RESULTS The geometric mean IL-6 at baseline, available in 3,503 (80.2%) participants, was 1.7 pg/mL. Each doubling of baseline IL-6 was associated with 14% (95% CI 4, 24) and 21% (95% CI 1, 45) increased risk of CV and kidney outcomes, respectively. Over 6 years, IL-6 increased by 5.8% (95% CI 3.4, 8.3) in the placebo group. Canagliflozin modestly attenuated the IL-6 increase (absolute percentage difference vs. placebo 4.4% [95% CI 1.3, 9.9; P = 0.01]). At year 1, each 25% lower level of IL-6 compared with baseline was associated with 7% (95% CI 1, 22) and 14% (95% CI 5, 22) lower risks for the CV and kidney outcome, respectively. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes at high CV risk, baseline IL-6 and its 1-year change were associated with CV and kidney outcomes. The effect of IL-6–lowering therapy on CV, kidney, and safety outcomes remains to be tested

Low estimated glomerular filtration rate and pneumonia in stroke patients: findings from a prospective stroke registry in the East of England

Priya Vart,1,2 Joao H Bettencourt-Silva,3,4 Anthony K Metcalf,3,4 Kristian M Bowles,3,4 John F Potter,3,4 Phyo K Myint1,3,4 1Ageing Clinical and Experimental Research, Institute of Applied Health Sciences, School of Medicine, Medical Sciences & Nutrition, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK; 2Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Department for Health Evidence, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, the Netherlands; 3Stroke Research Group, Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital, Norwich, UK; 4Norwich Medical School, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Purpose: Low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (<60 mL/min/1.73 m2) is a recognized risk factor for pneumonia in general population. While pneumonia is common after stroke, the association between levels of eGFR and pneumonia in stroke patient population has not yet been examined thoroughly. Patients and methods: Using data of 10,329 patients from the Norfolk and Norwich Stroke Registry between January 2003 and April 2015, we examined the association of poststroke pneumonia (in-hospital and after discharge) with low eGFR and when eGFR is divided into the complete spectrum of clinically relevant categories; (≥90) (ref.), 60–89, 45–59, 30–44, 15–30, and <15 mL/min/1.73 m2). Results: In all, 1,519 (14.7%) developed in-hospital pneumonia and 1,037 (12.9%) developed pneumonia after hospital discharge. In age- and sex-adjusted model, low eGFR was associated with in-hospital pneumonia (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR): 1.13; 95% CI: 1.01–1.25) and pneumonia after discharge (sHR: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.07–1.38). In fully adjusted model, association remained significant for pneumonia after hospital discharge. When eGFR was categorized in all clinically relevant categories, association with in-hospital pneumonia tended to be “U” shaped (eg, compared to eGFR ≥90, sHR for 60–89 was 0.78; 95% CI: 0.62–0.99 and for <15 was 1.06; 95% CI: 0.71–1.60) and association with pneumonia after discharge tended to increase with decline in eGFR level such that risk was almost two fold higher at eGFR <15 (sHR: 1.85; 95% CI: 1.01–3.51). Association for in-hospital pneumonia was driven mainly by aspiration pneumonia, whereas association in stroke survivors was predominantly for nonaspiration pneumonia. Conclusion: In stroke patients, low eGFR at admission was associated with pneumonia, particularly severely reduced eGFR with nonaspiration pneumonia after hospital discharge. eGFR could form the basis for identifying patients at high risk of poststroke pneumonia. Keywords: stroke, eGFR, prognosis, epidemiolog

Preformulated Implementation Intentions to Promote Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Cluster-Randomized Trial

Objective: To evaluate an intervention based on implementation intention principles designed to increase uptake of colorectal cancer screening, and to examine differential efficacy by socioeconomic deprivation. Method: In England, adults aged between 60 and 69 years are invited for biennial fecal occult blood testing. A test kit and an information leaflet are mailed to each individual by the "Hubs" that deliver the national screening program. In the intervention group, three preformulated implementation intentions, based on known barriers to carrying out the test, were added to the information leaflet. Over a 12-week period, each week was randomly allocated to either the intervention (n = 12,414 invitations) or the control condition (n = 10,768), with uptake recorded at the Hub. Socioeconomic deprivation of each individual's area of residence was categorized into tertiles. Results: There was no overall difference in uptake between control (40.4%) and intervention (39.7%) conditions, odds ratio (OR) = 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.91, 1.04]. There was an interaction with deprivation, OR = 1.11, 95% CI [1.04, 1.18], but the positive effect observed in the lowest socioeconomic status (SES) tertile was small (35.2% vs. 33.0%), OR = 1.103, 95% CI [1.01, 1.21], and offset by a negative effect in the least deprived tertile (45.6% vs. 48.2%), OR = 0.90, 95% CI [0.82, 0.99]. The intervention had no significant effect in the middle tertile (38.9% vs. 40.8%), OR = 0.92, 95% CI [0.81, 1.04]. Conclusion: Preformulated implementation intentions did not increase overall colorectal cancer screening uptake and failed to make a sufficiently large impact on uptake among lower SES groups to merit their future use in this context. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved)

Efficacy and Safety of Dapagliflozin by Baseline Glycemic Status: A Prespecified Analysis From the DAPA-CKD Trial.

OBJECTIVE: The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease (DAPA-CKD) study demonstrated risk reduction for kidney and cardiovascular outcomes with dapagliflozin versus placebo in participants with chronic kidney disease (CKD) with and without diabetes. We compared outcomes according to baseline glycemic status. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We enrolled participants with CKD, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 25-75 mL/min/1.73m2, and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio 200-5,000 mg/g. The primary composite end point was sustained eGFR decline ≥50%, end-stage kidney disease, or kidney or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: Of 4,304 participants, 738 had normoglycemia, 660 had prediabetes, and 2,906 had type 2 diabetes. The effect of dapagliflozin on the primary outcome was consistent (P for interaction = 0.19) in normoglycemia (hazard ratio [HR] 0.62 [95% CI 0.39, 1.01]), prediabetes (HR 0.37 [0.21, 0.66]), and type 2 diabetes (HR 0.64 [0.52, 0.79]). We found no evidence for effect modification on any outcome. Adverse events were similar, with no major hypoglycemia or ketoacidosis in participants with normoglycemia or prediabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Dapagliflozin safely reduced kidney and cardiovascular events independent of baseline glycemic status

POS-255 EFFECT OF DAPAGLIFLOZIN ON BLOOD PRESSURE IN PATIENTS WITH CKD: A PRE-SPECIFIED ANALYSIS FROM DAPA-CKD

Introduction: Hypertension is common in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors decrease blood pressure in patients with type 2 diabetes, but the consistency and magnitude of blood pressure lowering with dapagliflozin in patients with CKD is unknown. We performed a pre-specified analysis of the DAPA-CKD trial to investigate the effect of dapagliflozin on systolic blood pressure in patients with CKD, with and without type 2 diabetes. Methods: We randomized 4,304 adults with baseline eGFR 25–75 mL/min/1.73m2and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) 200–5,000 mg/g to either dapagliflozin 10 mg or placebo once daily; median follow-up was 2.4 years. The primary outcome was a composite of sustained ≥50% eGFR decline, end-stage kidney disease, or death from a kidney or cardiovascular cause. Change in systolic blood pressure was a pre-specified endpoint. Subgroup analyses were performed according to baseline type 2 diabetes status. Results: Baseline mean (SD) systolic blood pressure was 137.1 mmHg (17.4); in participants with and without type 2 diabetes 139.2 mmHg (17.3) and 132.6 mmHg (16.7), respectively. By week 2, dapagliflozin compared to placebo reduced systolic blood pressure by 3.6 mmHg (95%CI 2.8, 4.4; p\u3c0.001), an effect maintained over the duration of the trial, with similar reductions in patients with and without type 2 diabetes (Table). The reduction in systolic blood pressure with dapagliflozin explained 7.6% (95%CI 1.8, 20.9) of the effect on the primary composite outcome, with similar proportions explained in patients with and without type 2 diabetes. Conclusions: In participants with CKD, dapagliflozin lowered systolic blood pressure with a consistent effect in participants with and without type 2 diabetes. The modest reduction in blood pressure explained a small proportion of the benefit of dapagliflozin on the primary outcome. Conflict of interest Potential conflict of interest: HLH received grant funding and honoraria for consultancy as a member of the steering committee of the DAPA-CKD trial from AstraZeneca. Honoraria for steering committee membership paid to his institution from Janssen, Gilead, Bayer, Chinook, CSL Pharma honoraria for consultancy paid to his institution from Abbvie, Boehringer Ingleheim, Retrophin, Novo Nordisk honoraria for advisory board participation paid to his institution from Janssen, Merck, Mitsubishi Tanabe and Munipharma lecture fees received from AstraZeneca and Mitsubishi Tanabe and grant support received from Boehringer Ingelheim

Population screening for colorectal cancer means getting FIT:the past, present, and future of colorectal cancer screening using the fecal immunochemical test for hemoglobin (FIT)

Fecal immunochemical tests for hemoglobin (FIT) are changing the manner in which colorectal cancer (CRC) is screened. Although these tests are being performed worldwide, why is this test different from its predecessors? What evidence supports its adoption? How can this evidence best be used? This review addresses these questions and provides an understanding of FIT theory and practices to expedite international efforts to implement the use of FIT in CRC screening

Estimated Lifetime Cardiovascular, Kidney, and Mortality Benefits of Combination Treatment With SGLT2 Inhibitors, GLP-1 Receptor Agonists, and Nonsteroidal MRA Compared With Conventional Care in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Albuminuria

BACKGROUND: Sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA), and the nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (ns-MRA) finerenone all individually reduce cardiovascular, kidney, and mortality outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuria. However, the lifetime benefits of combination therapy with these medicines are not known. METHODS: We used data from 2 SGLT2i trials (CANVAS [Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment] and CREDENCE [Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation]), 2 ns-MRA trials (FIDELIO-DKD [Finerenone in Reducing Kidney Failure and Disease Progression in Diabetic Kidney Disease] and FIGARO-DKD [Efficacy and Safety of Finerenone in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and the Clinical Diagnosis of Diabetic Kidney Disease]), and 8 GLP-1 RA trials to estimate the relative effects of combination therapy versus conventional care (renin-angiotensin system blockade and traditional risk factor control) on cardiovascular, kidney, and mortality outcomes. Using actuarial methods, we then estimated absolute risk reductions with combination SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA in patients with type 2 diabetes and at least moderately increased albuminuria (urinary albumin:creatinine ratio ≥30 mg/g) by applying estimated combination treatment effects to participants receiving conventional care in CANVAS and CREDENCE. RESULTS: Compared with conventional care, the combination of SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.55–0.76) for major adverse cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death). The corresponding estimated absolute risk reduction over 3 years was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.0–5.7), with a number needed to treat of 23 (95% CI, 18–33). For a 50-year-old patient commencing combination therapy, estimated major adverse cardiovascular event–free survival was 21.1 years compared with 17.9 years for conventional care (3.2 years gained [95% CI, 2.1–4.3]). There were also projected gains in survival free from hospitalized heart failure (3.2 years [95% CI, 2.4–4.0]), chronic kidney disease progression (5.5 years [95% CI, 4.0–6.7]), cardiovascular death (2.2 years [95% CI, 1.2–3.0]), and all-cause death (2.4 years [95% CI, 1.4–3.4]). Attenuated but clinically relevant gains in event-free survival were observed in analyses assuming 50% additive effects of combination therapy, including for major adverse cardiovascular events (2.4 years [95% CI, 1.1–3.5]), chronic kidney disease progression (4.5 years [95% CI, 2.8–5.9]), and all-cause death (1.8 years [95% CI, 0.7–2.8]). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with type 2 diabetes and at least moderately increased albuminuria, combination treatment of SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA has the potential to afford relevant gains in cardiovascular and kidney event-free and overall survival

Salt, but not protein intake, is associated with accelerated disease progression in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease

In autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), there are only scarce data on the effect of salt and protein intake on disease progression. Here we studied association of these dietary factors with the rate of disease progression in ADPKD, and what the mediating factors are by analyzing an observational cohort of 589 patients with ADPKD. Salt and protein intake were estimated from 24-hour urine samples and the plasma copeptin concentration measured as a surrogate for vasopressin. The association of dietary intake with annual change in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and height adjusted total kidney volume (htTKV) growth was analyzed with mixed models. In case of significant associations, mediation analyses were performed to elucidate potential mechanisms. These patients (59% female) had a mean baseline age of 47, eGFR 64 mL/min/1.73m2 and the median htTKV was 880 mL. The mean estimated salt intake was 9.1 g/day and protein intake 84 g/day. During a median follow-up of 4.0 years, eGFR was assessed a median of six times and 24-hour urine was collected a median of five times. Salt intake was significantly associated with annual change in eGFR of -0.11 (95% confidence interval (0.20 - - 0.02) mL/min/1.73m2 per gram of salt, whereas protein intake was not (-0.00001 (-0.01 - 0.01) mL/min/1.73m2 per gram of protein. The effect of salt intake on eGFR slope was significantly mediated by plasma copeptin (crude analysis: 77% mediation, and, adjusted analysis: 45% mediation), but not by systolic blood pressure. Thus, higher salt, but not higher protein intake may be detrimental in ADPKD. The substantial mediation by plasma copeptin suggests that this effect is primarily a consequence of a salt-induced rise in vasopressin