Renewable energy futures in Finland : business concepts and opportunities for growth up to 2025

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Pääkaupunkiseudun liikennepoliittinen päätöksenteko : Liikennesuunnittelijoiden ja poliitikkojen näkemyksiä ohjauskeinoista, niiden valinnasta ja tulevasta käytöstä

Tässä Koneen säätiön rahoittamassa ja MMT Vilja Varhon toteuttamassa tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan neljän kunnan (Espoo, Helsinki, Kauniainen ja Vantaa) liikennesuunnittelijoiden ja poliittisten päätöksentekijöiden näkemyksiä liikennepoliittisista ohjauskeinoista ja liikennepolitiikan teosta. Tavoitteena oli lisätä tietoa kaupunkitason liikennepolitiikan teosta, löytää erilaisia lähestymistapoja liikennepoliittiseen ohjaukseen sekä tarkastella esteitä, jotka vaikeuttavat ympäristönsuojelullisesti tehokkaan liikennepolitiikan käyttöönottoa

Tulevaisuuden tutkimuksen supermies

Laura Pouru, Markku Wilenius, Karin Holstius ja Sirkka Heinonen (toim.): Pentti Malaska. Ennalta näkijä, edellä kulkija. Tulevaisuuden tutkimuksen seura 2017

Tyyntä vai myrskyä? : Tuulivoimatoimijoiden näkemyksiä Suomen tuulivoimasta ja sen tulevaisuudesta

Wind power has grown fast internationally. It can reduce the environmental impact of energy production and increase energy security. Finland has turbine industry but wind electricity production has been slow, and nationally set capacity targets have not been met. I explored social factors that have affected the slow development of wind power in Finland by studying the perceptions of Finnish national level wind power actors. By that I refer to people who affect the development of wind power sector, such as officials, politicians, and representatives of wind industries and various organisations. The material consisted of interviews, a questionnaire, and written sources. The perceptions of wind power, its future, and methods to promote it were divided. They were studied through discourse analysis, content analysis, and scenario construction. Definition struggles affect views of the significance and potential of wind power in Finland, and also affect investments in wind power and wind power policy choices. Views of the future were demonstrated through scenarios. The views included scenarios of fast growth, but in the most pessimistic views, wind power was not thought to be competitive without support measures even in 2025, and the wind power capacity was correspondingly low. In such a scenario, policy tool choices were expected to remain similar to ones in use at the time of the interviews. So far, the development in Finland has followed closely this pessimistic scenario. Despite the scepticism about wind electricity production, wind turbine industry was seen as a credible industry. For many wind power actors as well as for the Finnish wind power policy, the turbine industry is a significant motive to promote wind power. Domestic electricity production and the export turbine industry are linked in discourse through so-called home market argumentation. Finnish policy tools have included subsidies, research and development funding, and information policies. The criteria used to evaluate policy measures were both process-oriented and value-based. Feed-in tariffs and green certificates that are common elsewhere have not been taken to use in Finland. Some interviewees considered such tools unsuitable for free electricity markets and for the Finnish policy style, dictatorial, and being against western values. Other interviewees supported their use because of their effectiveness. The current Finnish policy tools are not sufficiently effective to increase wind power production significantly. Marginalisation of wind power in discourses, pessimistic views of the future, and the view that the small consumer demand for wind electricity represents the political views of citizens towards promoting wind power, make it more difficult to take stronger policy measures to use. Wind power has not yet significantly contributed to the ecological modernisation of the energy sector in Finland, but the situation may change as the need to reduce emissions from energy production continues.Tuulivoimaa on maailmalla otettu käyttöön mm. energiantuotannon ympäristöhaittojen vähentämiseksi ja omavaraisuuden lisäämiseksi. Myös Suomessa on tuulivoimateollisuutta, mutta tuulivoiman rakentaminen on ollut kansainvälisesti vertaillen hidasta, eikä kansallisia tavoitteita ole saavutettu. Tutkimuksessa on tarkasteltu yhteiskunnallisia tekijöitä, jotka ovat vaikuttaneet tuulivoiman hitaaseen kehitykseen Suomessa. Tutkimuksen kohteena olivat suomalaisten kansallisen tason tuulivoimatoimijoiden näkemykset. Tällaisia toimijoita ovat henkilöt, jotka vaikuttavat tuulivoimasektorin kehitykseen. Tuloksia voidaan hyödyntää arvioitaessa ja kehitettäessä tuulivoimapolitiikkaa. Tulokset osoittivat näkemysten tuulivoimasta, sen tulevaisuudesta ja sen edistämiseen käytettävistä ohjauskeinoista jakaantuneen voimakkaasti. Tuulivoimasta on käyty määrittelykamppailuja, joissa sitä esim. vähätellään ja toisaalta puolustetaan. Määrittelykamppailut vaikuttavat käsityksiin tuulivoiman merkityksellisyydestä ja mahdollisuuksista Suomessa ja sitä kautta investointeihin ja tuulivoimapoliittisiin valintoihin. Käsitykset tulevaisuudesta tulivat esille skenaarioissa, joita laadittiin haastateltujen näkemysten pohjalta. Näkemykset tuottivat myös voimakkaan kasvun skenaarioita, mutta pessimistisimmissä arvioissa tuulivoiman ei uskottu olevan Suomessa kannattavaa ilman tukia edes vuonna 2025, ja tuulivoimakapasiteetti olikin näissä arvioissa matala. Tällöin ohjauskeinovalintojen oletettiin pysyvän samankaltaisina kuin haastatteluajankohtana. Tähänastinen kehitys on pitkälti seurannut tätä pessimististä skenaariota. Vaikka tuulisähköön suhtauduttiin usein epäilevästi, tuulivoimalateollisuus nähtiin uskottavana teollisuutena, joka oli monelle tuulivoimatoimijalle sekä kansalliselle tuulivoimapolitiikalle kokonaisuutena merkittävä motiivi edistää tuulivoimaa. Kotimainen sähköntuotanto ja vientiteollisuus yhdistyvät ns. kotimarkkina-argumentaatiossa. Muualla maailmassa tyypillisiä edistämiskeinoja, kuten syöttötariffeja ja vihreitä sertifikaatteja, ei ole otettu Suomessa käyttöön. Osa haastatelluista piti sellaisia keinoja soveltumattomina avoimille sähkömarkkinoille ja suomalaiseen ohjauspolitiikkaan, diktatorisina ja länsimaisten arvojen vastaisina. Toiset taas kannattivat niitä niiden vaikuttavuuden takia. Ohjauskeinojen arvioinnissa käytettiinkin sekä ohjausprosessiin liittyviä että arvoperustaisia kriteerejä. Tähän asti käytetyt ohjauskeinot eivät ole riittävän vaikuttavia lisäämään tuulivoimaa merkittävästi. Voimakkaampien ohjauskeinojen käyttöönottoa vaikeuttavat tuulivoiman vähättely, pessimistiset tulevaisuudenkuvat ja oletus siitä, että vähäinen tuulisähkön kysyntä kuvastaa myös kansalaisten poliittista suhtautumista tuulivoiman lisäämiseen. Tilanne voi kuitenkin muuttua energiantuotannon päästöjen jatkuvan vähentämistarpeen takia

Finnish Bioeconomy in 2050 : Visions of Future Environmental Professionals

Finland and the European Union, among others, are promoting bioeconomy as a new form of economy. According to the EU, the bioeconomy comprises those parts of the economy that produce renewable biological resources, such as crops, forests, fish, animals and micro-organisms, or use them to produce food, materials and energy. In order for transition to have public legitimacy and engagement, it is important to understand different stakeholders’ views of bioeconomy. Therefore in this article we focus on future environmental professionals’ views of bioeconomy and compare them to the official definitions. We collected essays about Finnish bioeconomy in 2050 among 47 future environmental professionals who were currently studying at universities in the Helsinki region. The one-page essays were written in the spring 2017. Their content was analysed through nine themes (energy, housing, transport, food, other consumption, individuals, society, drivers, and definition of bioeconomy). Respondents’ views were reduced to three-four alternative future images per each theme and then combined into overall future images. According to the results, respondents’ visions were much more versatile and varied than the images portrayed by the Finnish and EU policies. The visions included dystopic images as well as critical views regarding the consumption-based lifestyles of today. The visions included changes to everyday life and practices, as well as to prevailing values and attitudes. For example, dietary changes such as increased vegetarianism and reduced consumption of meat and dairy products were very common. On the other hand, local food production and self-sufficiency were preferred by many respondents. In addition, the new technologies and materials envisioned were not only bio-based. Instead, solar and wind power emerged as particularly important energy forms. Even nuclear power was mentioned, which demonstrates how the focus of these visions was often carbon-neutrality rather than renewability or biological resources. Altogether these visions demonstrate that even among future environmental professionals the concept of bioeconomy is far from clear. It can be hypothesized that the term is even less known among the Finnish people at large. It is also likely that current research and promotion activities do not take into account the various societal and everyday dimensions of bioeconomy, if they only focus on the technological and economic aspects of the transform. We conclude that the aim to transform the Finnish society towards bioeconomy should be discussed more widely, and its definition, legitimacy, and societal impacts should be studied further.Non peer reviewe

Ratkaisuja visioimassa : Asiantuntijaharkinta ympäristön tulevaisuuksista

A central task in solving complex sustainability problems is to envision sustainable paths. In this task the heuristic capabilities of experts can be used. By drawing on the literature on expertise and a Delphi study of the future of transport and its CO2 emissions, the chapter discusses expert deliberation as a heuristic process. In this process, it is important to consider how expertise is defined, how expert panels are constructed, how their deliberation is managed, and what prospects for sustainable solutions the process yields. The chapter concludes that expert deliberation is a useful heuristic for exploring and ‘scoping’ future solutions.Peer reviewe

Citizens’ images of a sustainable energy transition

Achieving a sustainable energy transition is crucial for mitigating climate change. Citizens' acceptance of the transition is important for it to succeed. We explored citizens' images of the future energy forms and energy system in Finland, and the drivers of a sustainable energy transition. The data gathered with an online questionnaire targeting an adult population 17–75 years of age (N = 1012) were analysed with exploratory factor analysis and multiple linear regression. Four dimensions of future energy forms were identified: next-generation renewables, fossil energy, bioenergy, and established renewable vs. nuclear energy. Four dimensions of the future energy system were also identified: renewing the energy market, domestic power, small-scale producers, and consumer awareness. Five transition drivers were likewise identified: mainstreaming renewable energy, international actors, individual actions, changing values and economy, and emancipatory change. Mainstreaming renewable energy emerged as the key driver of transition, followed by individual actions. Generally, the sustainable energy transition was strongly supported by citizens' images, but different socio-economic groups preferred somewhat different images. Thus, the diversity of consumers' and citizens’ roles in the transition needs to be acknowledged and encouraged in legitimate national energy policies.peerReviewe

Citizens’ sustainable, future-oriented energy behaviours in energy transition

This study explored individuals' engagement in the sustainable energy transition in Finland. Using the attitude-behaviour-context model (Guagnano et al., 1995) and Stern's (2000) typology of environmentally significant behaviours, this study tested the assumption that individuals' engagement in transition is a combination of socio-psychological and contextual (socio-economic) variables and that the active engagement requires individuals to have a future orientation, systemic and self-efficacy, subjective knowledge and a pro-environmental attitude. The survey (N = 1012), representative of the 17-75-yearold Finnish population, was analysed with exploratory factor analysis and linear regression. The socio-psychological variables explained a larger portion of variance than the socio-economic variables in all three types of sustainable energy behaviours. The consideration of future consequences, self-efficacy and knowledge were positively associated with all three types of sustainable energy behaviours. Systemic efficacy was positively associated with and the consideration of immediate consequences was negatively associated with private-sphere environmentalism. The results suggest that individuals' consideration of the immediate and distant future should be included in the socio-psychological models of sustainable behaviours. The results also suggest that policymakers need to focus on strengthening citizens' efficacy beliefs, future orientation and knowledge. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.peerReviewe