Time-to-birth prediction models and the influence of expert opinions

Preterm birth is the leading cause of death among children under five years old. The pathophysiology and etiology of preterm labor are not yet fully understood. This causes a large number of unnecessary hospitalizations due to high--sensitivity clinical policies, which has a significant psychological and economic impact. In this study, we present a predictive model, based on a new dataset containing information of 1,243 admissions, that predicts whether a patient will give birth within a given time after admission. Such a model could provide support in the clinical decision-making process. Predictions for birth within 48 h or 7 days after admission yield an Area Under the Curve of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC) of 0.72 for both tasks. Furthermore, we show that by incorporating predictions made by experts at admission, which introduces a potential bias, the prediction effectiveness increases to an AUC score of 0.83 and 0.81 for these respective tasks

Measurement of the Transverse Beam Spin Asymmetry in Elastic Electron Proton Scattering and the Inelastic Contribution to the Imaginary Part of the Two-Photon Exchange Amplitude

We report on a measurement of the asymmetry in the scattering of transversely polarized electrons off unpolarized protons, A$_\perp$, at two Q$^2$ values of \qsquaredaveragedlow (GeV/c)$^2$ and \qsquaredaveragedhighII (GeV/c)$^2$ and a scattering angle of $30^\circ < \theta_e < 40^\circ$. The measured transverse asymmetries are A$_{\perp}$(Q$^2$ = \qsquaredaveragedlow (GeV/c)$^2$) = (\experimentalasymmetry alulowcorr $\pm$ \statisticalerrorlow$_{\rm stat}$ $\pm$ \combinedsyspolerrorlowalucor$_{\rm sys}$) $\times$ 10$^{-6}$ and A$_{\perp}$(Q$^2$ = \qsquaredaveragedhighII (GeV/c)$^2$) = (\experimentalasymme tryaluhighcorr $\pm$ \statisticalerrorhigh$_{\rm stat}$ $\pm$ \combinedsyspolerrorhighalucor$_{\rm sys}$) $\times$ 10$^{-6}$. The first errors denotes the statistical error and the second the systematic uncertainties. A$_\perp$ arises from the imaginary part of the two-photon exchange amplitude and is zero in the one-photon exchange approximation. From comparison with theoretical estimates of A$_\perp$ we conclude that $\pi$N-intermediate states give a substantial contribution to the imaginary part of the two-photon amplitude. The contribution from the ground state proton to the imaginary part of the two-photon exchange can be neglected. There is no obvious reason why this should be different for the real part of the two-photon amplitude, which enters into the radiative corrections for the Rosenbluth separation measurements of the electric form factor of the proton.Comment: 4 figures, submitted to PRL on Oct.

Algorithmic Complexity for Short Binary Strings Applied to Psychology: A Primer

Since human randomness production has been studied and widely used to assess executive functions (especially inhibition), many measures have been suggested to assess the degree to which a sequence is random-like. However, each of them focuses on one feature of randomness, leading authors to have to use multiple measures. Here we describe and advocate for the use of the accepted universal measure for randomness based on algorithmic complexity, by means of a novel previously presented technique using the the definition of algorithmic probability. A re-analysis of the classical Radio Zenith data in the light of the proposed measure and methodology is provided as a study case of an application.Comment: To appear in Behavior Research Method

Number preferences in lotteries

We explore people's preferences for numbers in large proprietary data sets from two different lottery games. We find that choice is far from uniform, and exhibits some familiar and some new tendencies and biases. Players favor personally meaningful and situationally available numbers, and are attracted towards numbers in the center of the choice form. Frequent players avoid winning numbers from recent draws, whereas infrequent players chase these. Combinations of numbers are formed with an eye for aesthetics, and players tend to spread their numbers relatively evenly across the possible range

Kinetic modeling of jet propellant-10 pyrolysis

A detailed kinetic model for the thermal decomposition of the advanced fuel Jet-Propellant 10 (JP-10) was constructed using a combination of automated mechanism generation techniques and ab initio calculations. Rate coefficients for important unimolecular initiation routes of exo-TCD were calculated using the multireference method CAS-PT2, while rate coefficients for the various primary decompositions of the exo-TCD-derived monoradicals were obtained using CBS-QB3. Rate-of-production analysis showed the importance of four dominating JP-10 decomposition channels. The model predictions agree well with five independent experimental data sets for JP-10 pyrolysis that cover a wide range of operating conditions (T = 300-1500 K, P = 300 Pa-1.7 x 10 (5) Pa, dilution = 0.7-100 mol% JP-10, conversion = 0-100%) without any adjustment of the model parameters. A significant part of the model comprises secondary conversion routes to aromatic and polyaromatic hydrocarbons and could thus be used to assess the tendency for deposit formation in fuel-rich zones of endothermic fuel applications

Hadronization in Nuclear-Matter

No abstract available