Het effect van intensief surveilleren vlak bij en vlak na een eerdere inbraak

Can a fruitful police surveillance scheme be based on supposedly increased risk immediately after and around a previous burglary (‘near repeat phenomenon’)? An experiment in Amstelveen has been set up and analysed for this purpose. Some neighbourhoods got a ‘near repeat surveillance’ scheme, and the occurrence of burglary in those areas has been compared with control neighbourhoods elsewhere in town. We observed a change in the near repeat pattern in the experimental area, but no net effect on burglary rates, presumably because of large between-neighbourhood variance in incidence. Dit artikel beschrijft een experimenteel onderzoek in Amstelveen, waarbij in verschillende buurten de politie extra surveilleert in de buurt van en kort na een eerdere inbraak, dit vanwege een mogelijk verhoogd risico dan en daar (‘besmettelijkheid’). Het vóórkomen van inbraken wordt vergeleken met wat er in controlebuurten gebeurt. Ofschoon het besmettelijkheidspatroon in de experimentele buurten wel verandert door de extra surveillance, konden we geen netto positief effect van de surveillance aantonen, wellicht vooral omdat de tussen-buurtvariatie erg groot is, gegeven de betrekkelijk kleine aantallen inbraken in de diverse buurten

Crime location choices:A geographical analysis of German serial killers

The present study examined whether there are different processes operating in the crime location choices between body‐disposing and non‐body‐disposing serial killers and between sexual serial killers and acquisitive serial killers. A sample of 49 series of solved German serial killings is used to examine the differences in travelled distances between these groups of killers. Nonparametric tests revealed that body‐disposing and non‐body‐disposing serial killers and sexual and acquisitive serial killers did not constitute subgroups of serial killers regarding their spatial behaviour. The results suggest that the compared groups are subjected to the same factors that influence their travelled distances. Furthermore, the possible role of planning and anticipated emotions in crime location choices of serial killers is discussed, as well as the limitations of the study and recommendations for future research

Linking serial sexual offences:Moving towards an ecologically valid test of the principles of crime linkage

Purpose: To conduct a test of the principles underpinning crime linkage (behavioural consistency and distinctiveness) with a sample more closely reflecting the volume and nature of sexual crimes with which practitioners work, and to assess whether solved series are characterized by greater behavioural similarity than unsolved series. Method: A sample of 3,364 sexual crimes (including 668 series) was collated from five countries. For the first time, the sample included solved and unsolved but linked-by-DNA sexual offence series, as well as solved one-off offences. All possible crime pairings in the data set were created, and the degree of similarity in crime scene behaviour shared by the crimes in each pair was quantified using Jaccard's coefficient. The ability to distinguish same-offender and different-offender pairs using similarity in crime scene behaviour was assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis. The relative amount of behavioural similarity and distinctiveness seen in solved and unsolved crime pairs was assessed. Results: An Area Under the Curve of.86 was found, which represents an excellent level of discrimination accuracy. This decreased to.85 when using a data set that contained one-off offences, and both one-off offences and unsolved crime series. Discrimination accuracy also decreased when using a sample composed solely of unsolved but linked-by-DNA series (AUC =.79). Conclusions: Crime linkage is practised by police forces globally, and its use in legal proceedings requires demonstration that its underlying principles are reliable. Support was found for its two underpinning principles with a more ecologically valid sample

Using offender crime scene behavior to link stranger sexual assaults:A comparison of three statistical approaches

Purpose This study compared the utility of different statistical methods in differentiating sexual crimes committed by the same person from sexual crimes committed by different persons. Methods Logistic regression, iterative classification tree (ICT), and Bayesian analysis were applied to a dataset of 3,364 solved, unsolved, serial, and apparent one-off sexual assaults committed in five countries. Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis was used to compare the statistical approaches. Results All approaches achieved statistically significant levels of discrimination accuracy. Two out of three Bayesian methods achieved a statistically higher level of accuracy (Areas Under the Curve [AUC]=0.89 [Bayesian coding method 1]; AUC=0.91 [Bayesian coding method 3]) than ICT analysis (AUC=0.88), logistic regression (AUC=0.87), and Bayesian coding method 2 (AUC=0.86). Conclusions The ability to capture/utilize between-offender differences in behavioral consistency appear to be of benefit when linking sexual offenses. Statistical approaches that utilize individual offender behaviors when generating crime linkage predictions may be preferable to approaches that rely on a single summary score of behavioral similarity. Crime linkage decision-support tools should incorporate a range of statistical methods and future research must compare these methods in terms of accuracy, usability, and suitability for practice

The heterogeneous sensitivity of pediatric brain tumors to different oncolytic viruses is predicted by unique gene expression profiles

Despite decades of research, the prognosis of high-grade pediatric brain tumors (PBTs) remains dismal; however, recent cases of favorable clinical responses were documented in clinical trials using oncolytic viruses (OVs). In the current study, we employed four different species of OVs: adenovirus Delta24-RGD, herpes simplex virus rQNestin34.5v1, reovirus R124, and the non-virulent Newcastle disease virus rNDV-F0-GFP against three entities of PBTs (high-grade gliomas, atypical teratoid/rhabdoid tumors, and ependymomas) to determine their in vitro efficacy. These four OVs were screened on 14 patient-derived PBT cell cultures and the degree of oncolysis was assessed using an ATP-based assay. Subsequently, the observed viral efficacies were correlated to whole transcriptome data and Gene Ontology analysis was performed. Although no significant tumor type-specific OV efficacy was observed, the analysis revealed the intrinsic biological processes that associated with OV efficacy. The predictive power of the identified expression profiles was further validated in vitro by screening additional PBTs. In summary, our results demonstrate OV susceptibility of multiple patient-derived PBT entities and the ability to predict in vitro responses to OVs using unique expression profiles. Such profiles may hold promise for future OV preselection with effective oncolytic potency in a specific tumor, therewith potentially improving OV responses.</p