Frequentist and Bayesian inference: a conceptual primer

Abstract: In recent years, there has been a crisis of confidence in many empirical fields including psychology, regarding the reproducibility of scientific findings. Among several causes thought to have contributed to this situation, the inferential basis of traditional, or so-called frequentist statistics, is arguably chief among them. Of particular concern is null hypothesis significance testing (NHST), which inadvertently became the de facto basis of scientific inference in the frequentist paradigm. The objective of this paper is to describe some of the most prominent issues plaguing frequentist inference, including NHST. In addition, some Bayesian benefits are introduced to show that it offers solutions to several problems inherent in frequentist statistics. The overall aim is to provide a non-threatening, conceptual overview of these concerns. The hope is that this will facilitate greater awareness and understanding of the need to address these matters in empirical psychology

The internal structure of the WRISc

Abstract: Personality-based integrity tests are used in selection procedures to reduce the chance of hiring employees who are likely to engage in counterproductive work behaviour. The present study reports the internal psychometric properties of a new personality-based measure developed for this purpose. Data collected from 1353 working adults were used to investigate internal consistency reliability, and to examine construct validity with confirmatory factor analysis and Rasch analysis. Results showed that the reliability estimates for all the scales of the assessment were satisfactory. For the confirmatory factor analysis, inspection of the incremental (CFI and TLI) and absolute (RMSEA) goodness-of fit values found strong support for the construct validity of all the scales. Infit statistics from Rasch analysis provided further support for construct validity, with items from all the scales fitting the Rasch model. Combined the confirmatory and Rasch analysis demonstrated that unidimensional, coherent and meaningful latent constructs are being measured on the WRISc. Overall, results found excellent support for the internal psychometric properties of the instrument in a culturally diverse context

Mutational Correlates of Virological Failure in Individuals Receiving a WHO-Recommended Tenofovir-Containing First-Line Regimen: An International Collaboration.

Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) genotypic resistance defined by K65R/N and/or K70E/Q/G occurs in 20% to 60% of individuals with virological failure (VF) on a WHO-recommended TDF-containing first-line regimen. However, the full spectrum of reverse transcriptase (RT) mutations selected in individuals with VF on such a regimen is not known. To identify TDF regimen-associated mutations (TRAMs), we compared the proportion of each RT mutation in 2873 individuals with VF on a WHO-recommended first-line TDF-containing regimen to its proportion in a cohort of 50,803 antiretroviral-naïve individuals. To identify TRAMs specifically associated with TDF-selection pressure, we compared the proportion of each TRAM to its proportion in a cohort of 5805 individuals with VF on a first-line thymidine analog-containing regimen. We identified 83 TRAMs including 33 NRTI-associated, 40 NNRTI-associated, and 10 uncommon mutations of uncertain provenance. Of the 33 NRTI-associated TRAMs, 12 - A62V, K65R/N, S68G/N/D, K70E/Q/T, L74I, V75L, and Y115F - were more common among individuals receiving a first-line TDF-containing compared to a first-line thymidine analog-containing regimen. These 12 TDF-selected TRAMs will be important for monitoring TDF-associated transmitted drug-resistance and for determining the extent of reduced TDF susceptibility in individuals with VF on a TDF-containing regimen

A many-analysts approach to the relation between religiosity and well-being

The relation between religiosity and well-being is one of the most researched topics in the psychology of religion, yet the directionality and robustness of the effect remains debated. Here, we adopted a many-analysts approach to assess the robustness of this relation based on a new cross-cultural dataset (N=10,535 participants from 24 countries). We recruited 120 analysis teams to investigate (1) whether religious people self-report higher well-being, and (2) whether the relation between religiosity and self-reported well-being depends on perceived cultural norms of religion (i.e., whether it is considered normal and desirable to be religious in a given country). In a two-stage procedure, the teams first created an analysis plan and then executed their planned analysis on the data. For the first research question, all but 3 teams reported positive effect sizes with credible/confidence intervals excluding zero (median reported β=0.120). For the second research question, this was the case for 65% of the teams (median reported β=0.039). While most teams applied (multilevel) linear regression models, there was considerable variability in the choice of items used to construct the independent variables, the dependent variable, and the included covariates

A Many-analysts Approach to the Relation Between Religiosity and Well-being

The relation between religiosity and well-being is one of the most researched topics in the psychology of religion, yet the directionality and robustness of the effect remains debated. Here, we adopted a many-analysts approach to assess the robustness of this relation based on a new cross-cultural dataset (N = 10, 535 participants from 24 countries). We recruited 120 analysis teams to investigate (1) whether religious people self-report higher well-being, and (2) whether the relation between religiosity and self-reported well-being depends on perceived cultural norms of religion (i.e., whether it is considered normal and desirable to be religious in a given country). In a two-stage procedure, the teams first created an analysis plan and then executed their planned analysis on the data. For the first research question, all but 3 teams reported positive effect sizes with credible/confidence intervals excluding zero (median reported β = 0.120). For the second research question, this was the case for 65% of the teams (median reported β = 0.039). While most teams applied (multilevel) linear regression models, there was considerable variability in the choice of items used to construct the independent variables, the dependent variable, and the included covariates

To which world regions does the valence–dominance model of social perception apply?

Over the past 10 years, Oosterhof and Todorov’s valence–dominance model has emerged as the most prominent account of how people evaluate faces on social dimensions. In this model, two dimensions (valence and dominance) underpin social judgements of faces. Because this model has primarily been developed and tested in Western regions, it is unclear whether these findings apply to other regions. We addressed this question by replicating Oosterhof and Todorov’s methodology across 11 world regions, 41 countries and 11,570 participants. When we used Oosterhof and Todorov’s original analysis strategy, the valence–dominance model generalized across regions. When we used an alternative methodology to allow for correlated dimensions, we observed much less generalization. Collectively, these results suggest that, while the valence–dominance model generalizes very well across regions when dimensions are forced to be orthogonal, regional differences are revealed when we use different extraction methods and correlate and rotate the dimension reduction solution.C.L. was supported by the Vienna Science and Technology Fund (WWTF VRG13-007); L.M.D. was supported by ERC 647910 (KINSHIP); D.I.B. and N.I. received funding from CONICET, Argentina; L.K., F.K. and Á. Putz were supported by the European Social Fund (EFOP-3.6.1.-16-2016-00004; ‘Comprehensive Development for Implementing Smart Specialization Strategies at the University of Pécs’). K.U. and E. Vergauwe were supported by a grant from the Swiss National Science Foundation (PZ00P1_154911 to E. Vergauwe). T.G. is supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). M.A.V. was supported by grants 2016-T1/SOC-1395 (Comunidad de Madrid) and PSI2017-85159-P (AEI/FEDER UE). K.B. was supported by a grant from the National Science Centre, Poland (number 2015/19/D/HS6/00641). J. Bonick and J.W.L. were supported by the Joep Lange Institute. G.B. was supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency (APVV-17-0418). H.I.J. and E.S. were supported by a French National Research Agency ‘Investissements d’Avenir’ programme grant (ANR-15-IDEX-02). T.D.G. was supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship. The Raipur Group is thankful to: (1) the University Grants Commission, New Delhi, India for the research grants received through its SAP-DRS (Phase-III) scheme sanctioned to the School of Studies in Life Science; and (2) the Center for Translational Chronobiology at the School of Studies in Life Science, PRSU, Raipur, India for providing logistical support. K. Ask was supported by a small grant from the Department of Psychology, University of Gothenburg. Y.Q. was supported by grants from the Beijing Natural Science Foundation (5184035) and CAS Key Laboratory of Behavioral Science, Institute of Psychology. N.A.C. was supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (R010138018). We acknowledge the following research assistants: J. Muriithi and J. Ngugi (United States International University Africa); E. Adamo, D. Cafaro, V. Ciambrone, F. Dolce and E. Tolomeo (Magna Græcia University of Catanzaro); E. De Stefano (University of Padova); S. A. Escobar Abadia (University of Lincoln); L. E. Grimstad (Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)); L. C. Zamora (Franklin and Marshall College); R. E. Liang and R. C. Lo (Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman); A. Short and L. Allen (Massey University, New Zealand), A. Ateş, E. Güneş and S. Can Özdemir (Boğaziçi University); I. Pedersen and T. Roos (Åbo Akademi University); N. Paetz (Escuela de Comunicación Mónica Herrera); J. Green (University of Gothenburg); M. Krainz (University of Vienna, Austria); and B. Todorova (University of Vienna, Austria). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.https://www.nature.com/nathumbehav/am2023BiochemistryGeneticsMicrobiology and Plant Patholog

Attitude to ambiguity as a predictor of analytic thinking

Abstract: Thinking dispositions are considered important predictors of analytic thinking. While several thinking dispositions have been found to predict responses on a range of analytic thinking tasks, this field is arguably underdeveloped. There are likely many relevant dispositional variables associated with analytic thinking that remains to be explored. This study examines one such dispositional variable, namely, attitude to ambiguity. The disposition is implied in the literature given that internal conflict – likely with associated ambiguity – is typically experienced in cognitive tasks used to study thinking and reasoning. In this article, the association between attitude to ambiguity and analytic thinking is empirically examined using Bayesian methods. A total of 313 adults (mean age = 29.31, SD = 12.19) completed the Multidimensional Attitude Toward Ambiguity (MAAS) scale, along with the Cognitive Reflection Test and a syllogism-based measure of belief bias. Results found one component of the MAAS scale, Moral Absolutism, to be a robust predictor of scores on both the Cognitive Reflection Test and the measure of belief bias

A network analysis of the General Health questionnaire

Abstract: The General Health Questionnaire-28 is a well-known symptom-based rating scale of mental health. Several studies have investigated its latent structure using confirmatory factor analysis. This study questions this approach on several substantive points, most notably the inability for symptoms to interact using confirmatory factor analysis, and argues for the use of network analysis instead. Network results demonstrate the method’s utility to improve our understanding of the rating scales’ symptom structure. Insights include a much richer understanding of comorbidity on the General Health Questionnaire-28 and the identification of particularly salient symptoms affecting the network. It yields substantive information of interest to researchers and practitioners alike

Personality as a predictor of risk-taking behaviour

M.A. (Psychology)The present study was conducted to investigate the relationship between personality and risk taking behaviour in the South African context. Personality was measured with the Basic Traits Inventory (BTl), an assessment specifically developed to measure the broad dimensions of the five factor model of personality (John & Srivastava, 1999) in South Africa. The five dimensions on the BTl have the same names as the well-known five factor model, namely: Neuroticism, Extraversion, Openness to Experience, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness. The primary objective of this study was to investigate the underlying personality structure across ten different forms of risk-related behaviour. The risk behaviours included smoking, alcohol consumption,.illegal drug use, sexual promiscuity, thrill-seeking activities, gambling, physical violence, romantic infidelity and other behaviours that may have led to a respondent being arrested. Given South Africa's unique population, a further objective ofthis study was to examine the degree to which the results from the study would be in line with those reported in so-called Western, Educated, Industrialised, Rich and Democratic (WEIRD) societies. The sample consisted of 683 respondents, all second-year students from a bilingual (Afrikaans and English) university in Johannesburg. There were 142 men and 538 women in the sample. Three of the respondents' gender was unknown. There were 425 White respondents, 120 Black respondents, 83 Indian respondents, 46 Coloured respondents and nine respondents who did not specify any population group. Respondents' mean age was 20.99 years with a standard deviation of5.10 years. The sample was not representative ofthe South African population, with men being underrepresented and White respondents overrepresented in comparison to other population groups. A multivariate technique, Descriptive Discriminant Analysis, was used to analyse personality differences across groups. The groups were formed based on the frequency with which individuals engaged in the different risk-behaviours. Post-hocanalyses allowed for a close rexamination of group differences. The results revealed that a single, statistically significant discriminant functionemergedfor all ten of the risk variables with the exceptionof one, for whichtwo possible discriminant functions were identified. This showed that different combinations of the five personality factors were, to some extent, able to account for group separation on each of the risk variables. Considering the results as a whole, some interesting findings were revealed: It became evident that no single personality structureexists across the different risk-variables of this study. It was clear that some personality factors were more important, whereas others were less important, depending on the type of risk-behaviour being considered. Despite these seeming differences, important patterns of personality emergedacross the risk-variables. Conscientiousness, and in particular, Extraversion were identified as the most salient predictors of the risk-behaviours in this study, although important contributions were also made by the remaining personality factors: Conscientiousness was further found to be the most important predictor of health-risk behaviours such as smoking, alcohol consumption, and druguse. In general, Opennessto Experience, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism appeared to be more selectively associated with specific risk-behaviours when compared to Extraversion and Conscientiousness. Overall, the findings reported in this study were largely in line with those reported in so called WEIRD countries. The results of this study further supported the generalisability of prior research regarding the relationship between personality and risk-taking. It also demonstrated the utility of the five factor model as a promising predictor of risky behaviour. For future research it is recommended that the facet-scale level of the BTl be used to further investigate the personality-risk relationship

The five factor model and infidelity : beyond the broad domains

Abstract: Several studies have explored the association between personality and infidelity, but our understanding of this relationship is arguably underdeveloped. The fact that most research only examined domain-level effects may have contributed to the situation, as facet-level and item- level information have not sufficiently been taken into consideration. This paper argues that it is an unwarranted assumption that domain-level associations reveal all there is to know about the relationship between personality and infidelity, and proceeds to examine this claim. The present study investigates the association between personality and infidelity but goes beyond the Big Five domains to examine facet and item-level associations in a sample of 685 participants. Bayesian logistic modeling with comprehensive indicators of uncertainty are provided for all models predicting infidelity. Results suggest that two facets in particular are associated with infidelity and that facet and item models contains additional predictive information compared to the broad domains. Findings further suggest that facets and items provide more nuanced information than can be gleaned from domain-level effects, which in turn, could advance our understanding of personality and its association with infidelity