External validation of three lymph node ratio-based nomograms predicting survival using an international cohort of patients with resected pancreatic head ductal adenocarcinoma.

INTRODUCTION Lymph node ratio (LNR) is an important prognostic factor of survival in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). This study aimed to validate three LNR-based nomograms using an international cohort. MATERIALS AND METHODS Consecutive PDAC patients who underwent upfront pancreatoduodenectomy from six centers (Europe/USA) were collected (2000-2017). Patients with metastases, R2 resection, missing LNR data, and who died within 90 postoperative days were excluded. The updated Amsterdam nomogram, the nomogram by Pu et al., and the nomogram by Li et al. were selected. For the validation, calibration, discrimination capacity, and clinical utility were assessed. RESULTS After exclusion of 176 patients, 1'113 patients were included. Median overall survival (OS) of the cohort was 23 months (95% CI: 21-25). For the three nomograms, Kaplan-Meier curves showed significant OS diminution with increasing scores (p < 0.01). All nomograms showed good calibration (non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow tests). For the Amsterdam nomogram, area under the ROC curve (AUROC) for 3-year OS was 0.64 and 0.67 for 5-year OS. Sensitivity and specificity for 3-year OS prediction were 65% and 59%. Regarding the nomogram by Pu et al., AUROC for 3- and 5-year OS were 0.66 and 0.70. Sensitivity and specificity for 3-year OS prediction were 68% and 53%. For the Li nomogram, AUROC for 3- and 5-year OS were 0.67 and 0.71, while sensitivity and specificity for 3-year OS prediction were 63% and 60%. CONCLUSION The three nomograms were validated using an international cohort. Those nomograms can be used in clinical practice to evaluate survival after pancreatoduodenectomy for PDAC

International Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Recurrence after Resection of Grade 1 and 2 Nonfunctioning Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors

Background: Despite the low recurrence rate of resected nonfunctional pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NF-pNETs), nearly all patients undergo long-term surveillance. A prediction model for recurrence may help select patients for less intensive surveillance or identify patients for adjuvant therapy. The objective of this study was to assess the external validity of a recently published model predicting recurrence within 5 years after surgery for NF-pNET in an international cohort. This prediction model includes tumor grade, lymph node status and perineural invasion as predictors. Methods: Retrospectively, data were collected from 7 international referral centers on patients who underwent resection for a grade 1-2 NF-pNET between 1992 and 2018. Model performance was evaluated by calibration statistics, Harrel's C-statistic, and area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve for 5-year recurrence-free survival (RFS). A sub-analysis was performed in pNETs >2 cm. The model was improved to stratify patients into 3 risk groups (low, medium, high) for recurrence. Results: Overall, 342 patients were included in the validation cohort with a 5-year RFS of 83% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 78-88%). Fifty-eight patients (17%) developed a recurrence. Calibration showed an intercept of 0 and a slope of 0.74. The C-statistic was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.70-0.83), and the AUC for the prediction of 5-year RFS was 0.74. The prediction model had a better performance in tumors >2 cm (C-statistic 0.80). Conclusions: External validity of this prediction model for recurrence after curative surgery for grade 1-2 NF-pNET showed accurate overall performance using 3 easily accessible parameters. This model is available via www.pancreascalculator.com

Pathological Margin Clearance and Survival After Pancreaticoduodenectomy in a US and European Pancreatic Center

Background: The optimal definition of a margin-negative resection and its exact prognostic significance on survival in resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma remains unknown. This study was designed to assess the relationship between pathological margin clearance, margin type, and survival. Methods: Patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy with curative intent at two academic institutions, in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, and Boston, Massachusetts, between 2000 and 2014 were retrospectively evaluated. Overall survival, recurrence rates, and progression-free survival (PFS) were assessed by Kaplan–Meier estimates and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis, according to pathological margin clearance and type of margin involved. Results: Of 531 patients identified, the median PFS was 12.9, 15.4, and 24.1 months, and the median overall survival was 17.4, 22.9, and 27.7 months for margin clearances of 0, < 1, and ≥1 mm, respectively (all log-rank p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, patients with a margin clearance of ≥1 mm demonstrated a survival advantage relative to those with 0 mm clearance [hazard ratio (HR) 0.71, p < 0.01], whereas survival was comparable for patients with a margin clearance of < 1 mm versus 0 mm (HR: 0.93, p = 0.60). Patients with involvement (0 or < 1 mm margin clearance) of the SMV/PV margin demonstrated prolonged median overall survival (25.7 months) relative to those with SMA involvement (17.5 months). Conclusions: In patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic adenocarcinoma, a margin clearance of ≥1 mm correlates with improved survival relative to < 1 mm clearance and may be a more accurate predictor of a complete margin-negative resection in pancreatic cancer. The type of margin involved also appears to impact survival. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1245/s10434-018-6467-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Textbook Outcome Nationwide Analysis of a Novel Quality Measure in Pancreatic Surgery:Nationwide Analysis of a Novel Quality Measure in Pancreatic Surgery

Background: Textbook outcome (TO) is a multidimensional measure for quality assurance, reflecting the ‘‘ideal’’ surgical outcome. Methods: Post-hoc analysis of patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) or distal pancreatectomy (DP) for all indications between 2014 and 2017, queried from the nationwide prospective Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Audit. An international survey was conducted among 24 experts from 10 countries to reach consensus on the requirements for TO in pancreatic surgery. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify TO predictors. Between-hospital variation in TO rates was compared using observed-versus-expected rates. Results: Based on the survey (92% response rate), TO was defined by the absence of postoperative pancreatic fistula, bile leak, postpancreatectomy hemorrhage (all ISGPS grade B/C), severe complications (Clavien–Dindo III), readmission, and in-hospital mortality. Overall, 3341 patients were included (2633 (79%) PD and 708 (21%) DP) of whom 60.3% achieved TO; 58.3% for PD and 67.4% for DP. On multivariable analysis, ASA class 3 predicted a worse TO rate after PD (ASA 3 OR 0.59 [0.44–0.80]), whereas a dilated pancreatic duct (>3 mm) and pancreatic ductal ade

Histopathologic predictors of survival and recurrence in resected ampullary adenocarcinoma

Objective: The aim of the study was to define histopathologic characteristics that independently predict overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS), in patients who underwent resection of an ampullary adenocarcinoma with curative intent. Summary Background Data: A broad range of survival rates have been described for adenocarcinoma of the ampulla of Vater, presumably due to morphological heterogeneity which is a result of the different epitheliums ampullary adenocarcinoma can arise from (intestinal or pancreaticobiliary). Large series with homogenous patient selection are scarce. Methods: A retrospective multicenter cohort analysis of patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy for ampullary adenocarcinoma in 9 European tertiary referral centers between February 2006 and December 2017 was performed. Collected data included demographics, histopathologic details, survival, and recurrence. OS and DFS analyses were performed using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Overall, 887 patients were included, with a mean age of 66 ± 10 years. The median OS was 64 months with 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS rates of 89%, 63%, 52%, and 37%, respectively. Histopathologic subtype, differentiation grade, lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion, T-stage, N-stage, resection margin, and adjuvant chemotherapy were correlated with OS and DFS. N-stage (HR = 3.30 [2.09–5.21]), perineural invasion (HR = 1.50 [1.01–2.23]), and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR = 0.69 [0.48–0.97]) were independent predictors of OS in multivariable analysis, whereas DFS was only adversely predicted by N-stage (HR = 2.65 [1.65–4.27]). Conclusions: Independent predictors of OS in resected ampullary cancer were N-stage, perineural invasion, and adjuvant chemotherapy. N-stage was the only predictor of DFS. These findings improve predicting survival and recurrence after resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma

Conditional Survival After Resection for Pancreatic Cancer: A Population-Based Study and Prediction Model

Background: Conditional survival is the survival probability after already surviving a predefined time period. This may be informative during follow-up, especially when adjusted for tumor characteristics. Such prediction models for patients with resected pancreatic cancer are lacking and therefore conditional survival was assessed and a nomogram predicting 5-year survival at a predefined period after resection of pancreatic cancer was developed. Methods: This population-based study included patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (2005–2016). Conditional survival was calculated as the median, and the probability of surviving up to 8 years in patients who already survived 0–5 years after resection was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. A prediction model was constructed. Results: Overall, 3082 patients were included, with a median age of 67 years. Median overall survival was 18 months (95% confidence interval 17–18 months), with a 5-year survival of 15%. The 1-year conditional survival (i.e. probability of surviving the next year) increased from 55 to 74 to 86% at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively, while the median overall survival increased from 15 to 40 to 64 months at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively. The prediction model demonstrated that the probability of achieving 5-year survival at 1 year after surgery varied from 1 to 58% depending on patient and tumor characteristics. Conclusions: This population-based study showed that 1-year conditional survival was 55% 1 year after resection and 74% 3 years after resection in patients with pancreatic cancer. The prediction model is available via www.pancreascalculator.com to inform patients and caregivers

Predictive value of baseline serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 level on treatment effect of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in patients with resectable and borderline resectable pancreatic cancer in two randomized trials

BACKGROUND: Guidelines suggest that the serum carbohydrate antigen (CA19-9) level should be used when deciding on neoadjuvant treatment in patients with resectable and borderline resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (hereafter referred to as pancreatic cancer). In patients with resectable pancreatic cancer, neoadjuvant therapy is advised when the CA19-9 level is 'markedly elevated'. This study investigated the impact of baseline CA19-9 concentration on the treatment effect of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with resectable and borderline resectable pancreatic cancers.METHODS: In this post hoc analysis, data were obtained from two RCTs that compared neoadjuvant CRT with upfront surgery in patients with resectable and borderline resectable pancreatic cancers. The effect of neoadjuvant treatment on overall survival was compared between patients with a serum CA19-9 level above or below 500 units/ml using the interaction test.RESULTS: Of 296 patients, 179 were eligible for analysis, 90 in the neoadjuvant CRT group and 89 in the upfront surgery group. Neoadjuvant CRT was associated with superior overall survival (HR 0.67, 95 per cent c.i. 0.48 to 0.94; P = 0.019). Among 127 patients (70, 9 per cent) with a low CA19-9 level, median overall survival was 23.5 months with neoadjuvant CRT and 16.3 months with upfront surgery (HR 0.63, 0.42 to 0.93). For 52 patients (29 per cent) with a high CA19-9 level, median overall survival was 15.5 months with neoadjuvant CRT and 12.9 months with upfront surgery (HR 0.82, 0.45 to 1.49). The interaction test for CA19-9 level exceeding 500 units/ml on the treatment effect of neoadjuvant CRT was not significant (P = 0.501).CONCLUSION: Baseline serum CA19-9 level defined as either high or low has prognostic value, but was not associated with the treatment effect of neoadjuvant CRT in patients with resectable and borderline resectable pancreatic cancers, in contrast with current guideline advice.</p

Predicting overall survival and resection in patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer treated with FOLFIRINOX:Development and internal validation of two nomograms

Background and Objectives Patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) are increasingly treated with FOLFIRINOX, resulting in improved survival and resection of tumors that were initially unresectable. It remains unclear, however, which specific patients benefit from FOLFIRINOX. Two nomograms were developed predicting overall survival (OS) and resection at the start of FOLFIRINOX for LAPC. Methods From our multicenter, prospective LAPC registry in 14 Dutch hospitals, LAPC patients starting first-line FOLFIRINOX (April 2015-December 2017) were included. Stepwise backward selection according to the Akaike Information Criterion was used to identify independent baseline predictors for OS and resection. Two prognostic nomograms were generated. Results A total of 252 patients were included, with a median OS of 14 months. Thirty-two patients (13%) underwent resection, with a median OS of 23 months. Older age, female sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index 1, involvement of the superior mesenteric artery, celiac trunk, and superior mesenteric vein >= 270 degrees were independent factors decreasing the probability of resection (c-index: 0.79). Conclusions Two nomograms were developed to predict OS and resection in patients with LAPC before starting treatment with FOLFIRINOX. These nomograms could be beneficial in the shared decision-making process and counseling of these patients

Axial slicing versus bivalving in the pathological examination of pancreatoduodenectomy specimens (APOLLO): a multicentre randomized controlled trial

Background: In pancreatoduodenectomy specimens, dissection method may affect the assessment of primary tumour origin (i.e. pancreatic, distal bile duct or ampullary adenocarcinoma), which is primarily determined macroscopically. This is the first study to prospectively compare the two commonly used techniques, i.e. axial slicing and bivalving. Methods: In four centres, a randomized controlled trial was performed in specimens of patients with a suspected (pre)malignant tumour in the pancreatic head. Primary outcome measure was the level of certainty (scale 0–100) regarding tumour origin by four independent gastrointestinal pathologists based on macroscopic assessment. Secondary outcomes were inter-observer agreement and R1 rate. Results: In total, 128 pancreatoduodenectomy specimens were randomized. The level of certainty in determining the primary tumour origin did not differ between axial slicing and bivalving (mean score 72 [sd 13] vs. 68 [sd 16], p = 0.21), nor did inter-observer agreement, both being moderate (kappa 0.45 vs. 0.47). In pancreatic cancer specimens, R1 rate (60% vs. 55%, p = 0.71) and the number of harvested lymph nodes (median 16 vs. 17, p = 0.58) were similar. Conclusion: This study demonstrated no differences in determining the tumour origin between axial slicing and bivalving. Both techniques performed similarly regarding inter-observer agreement, R1 rate, and lymph node harvest

Pathological Complete Response in Patients With Resected Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma After Preoperative Chemotherapy

Importance: Preoperative chemo(radio)therapy is increasingly used in patients with localized pancreatic adenocarcinoma, leading to pathological complete response (pCR) in a small subset of patients. However, multicenter studies with in-depth data about pCR are lacking. Objective: To investigate the incidence, outcome, and risk factors of pCR after preoperative chemo(radio)therapy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This observational, international, multicenter cohort study assessed all consecutive patients with pathology-proven localized pancreatic adenocarcinoma who underwent resection after 2 or more cycles of chemotherapy (with or without radiotherapy) in 19 centers from 8 countries (January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2018). Data collection was performed from February 1, 2020, to April 30, 2022, and analyses from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2023. Median follow-up was 19 months. Exposures: Preoperative chemotherapy (with or without radiotherapy) followed by resection. Main Outcomes and Measures: The incidence of pCR (defined as absence of vital tumor cells in the sampled pancreas specimen after resection), its association with OS from surgery, and factors associated with pCR. Factors associated with overall survival (OS) and pCR were investigated with Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression models, respectively. Results: Overall, 1758 patients (mean [SD] age, 64 [9] years; 879 [50.0%] male) were studied. The rate of pCR was 4.8% (n = 85), and pCR was associated with OS (hazard ratio, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.26-0.83). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 95%, 82%, and 63% in patients with pCR vs 80%, 46%, and 30% in patients without pCR, respectively (P &lt; .001). Factors associated with pCR included preoperative multiagent chemotherapy other than (m)FOLFIRINOX ([modified] leucovorin calcium [folinic acid], fluorouracil, irinotecan hydrochloride, and oxaliplatin) (odds ratio [OR], 0.48; 95% CI, 0.26-0.87), preoperative conventional radiotherapy (OR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.00-4.10), preoperative stereotactic body radiotherapy (OR, 8.91; 95% CI, 4.17-19.05), radiologic response (OR, 13.00; 95% CI, 7.02-24.08), and normal(ized) serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 after preoperative therapy (OR, 3.76; 95% CI, 1.79-7.89). Conclusions and Relevance: This international, retrospective cohort study found that pCR occurred in 4.8% of patients with resected localized pancreatic adenocarcinoma after preoperative chemo(radio)therapy. Although pCR does not reflect cure, it is associated with improved OS, with a doubled 5-year OS of 63% compared with 30% in patients without pCR. Factors associated with pCR related to preoperative chemo(radio)therapy regimens and anatomical and biological disease response features may have implications for treatment strategies that require validation in prospective studies because they may not universally apply to all patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma.</p