Financial contagion : spillovers through banking centers

This paper presents evidence that spillovers through shifts in bank lending can help explain the pattern of contagion. To test the role of bank lending in transmitting currency crises we examine a panel of data on capital flows to 30 emerging markets disaggregated by 11 banking centers. In addition we study a cross-section of emerging markets for which we construct a number of measures of competition for bank funds. For the Mexican and Asian crises, we find that the degree to which countries compete for funds from common bank lenders is a fairly robust predictor of both disaggregated bank flows and the incidence of a currency crisis. In the Russian crisis, the common bank lender helps to predict the incidence of contagion but there is also evidence of a generalized outflow from all emerging markets. We test extensively for robustness to sample, specification and definition of the common bank lender effect. Overall our findings suggest that spillovers through banking centers may be more important in explaining contagion than similarities in macro-economic fundamentals and even than trade linkage

Spillovers through banking centers: a panel data analysis of bank flows

This paper presents evidence that spillovers through bank lending contributed to the transmission of currency crises during the recent episodes of financial instability in emerging markets. The innovation of the paper is that it looks beyond aggregated measures of contagion into the structure of bank flows, disaggregating by banking centers. The main findings are that caused by banks’ exposures to a crisis country help predict flows in third countries after the Mexican and Asian crises, but not after the Russian crisis. In the latter, there is evidence of a generalized outflow from emerging markets. The importance of spillovers through centers suggests that countries might reduce contagion risk by diversifying the sources of their financing and by carefully monitoring borrowing from creditors exposed to potential crisis countries

Business plan Youdside

Analysing secondary data using business marketing theory models such as the PESTLE, Porter’s Five Forces, 4Ps and SWOT, this study presents a business plan for WHY YOU: a Belgian start-up sole proprietorship fashion company of Marie Van Rijckeghem that sells streetwear apparels, clothes and accessories. The main strength of WHY YOU is its drive to provide all-season products by adopting a highly flexible approach, based on continual innovation, to meet the needs of emerging niche segments. However, the start-up faces competition from companies such as the Belgian Company, Eddie Clothing and DYJCODE. WHY YOU targets the upper middle class consumer segment and will compete with rival firms through strategic pricing; its main product, sweaters, being priced at €100. The company will use two physical stores to launch the WHY YOU sweaters, in Ghent and Aalter, which are not as saturated as Belgium’s fashion capital, Antwerp. WHY YOU will promote its products using flyers, posters and an E-commerce store, which will be launched in Q2 of 2018. The company targets profitability by Q1 2019 and a €50.000 funding from an angel investor(s) by the end of 2019; presently, WHY YOU has capital constraints. In the long-term, WHY YOU aims to enter Germany, The Netherlands and France. Financial analysis indicates that not all objectives will be obtained but the WHY YOU’s profitability is projected to rise from €3.090 in 2018 to €16.640 by 2022. Based on the JEL Codes Guide of AEA (American-Economic-Association), this research falls under the marketing and accounting classification.Analisando dados secundários e utilizando modelos teóricos de marketing empresarial como a análise PESTLE, as Cinco Forças de Porter, 4Ps e a análise SWOT, este estudo apresenta um plano de negócios para WHY YOU: uma start-up belga de moda, de propriedade exclusiva de Marie Van Rijckeghem, que comercializa vestuário streetwear, roupas e acessórios. A principal força do WHY YOU é a sua iniciativa de fornecer produtos para todas as estações, adotando uma abordagem altamente flexível, baseada em inovação contínua, a fim de atender às necessidades dos segmentos de nicho emergentes. No entanto, a empresa enfrenta a concorrência de Belgian Company, a Eddie Clothing e a DYJCODE. WHY YOU tem como alvo o segmento de consumidores de classe média alta e competirá com seus rivais por meio de preços estratégicos; seu principal produto, sweaters, são precificados a € 100. Para lançar os sweaters WHY YOU, a empresa usará duas lojas físicas, em Gent e Aalter, mercados não tão saturados quanto a capital da moda da Bélgica, Antuérpia. WHY YOU promoverá seus produtos usando flyers, posters e uma loja de e-commerce, que será lançada no segundo trimestre de 2018. A empresa tem como meta lucratividade no primeiro trimestre de 2019 e financiamento de € 50.000 de um investidor-anjo até o final de 2019. Atualmente, WHY YOU tem restrições de capital. A longo prazo, WHY YOU pretende entrar na Alemanha, Holanda e França. A análise financeira indica que nem todos os objetivos serão obtidos, mas a lucratividade do WHY YOU deverá subir de € 3.090 em 2018 para € 16.640 em 2022. Com base nos Códigos de classificação JEL da AEA (American-Economic Association), esta pesquisa se enquadra a classificação de marketing e contabilidade

Do variable length moving average trading rules matter during a financial crisis period?

[[abstract]]When analysing the data periods including the pre-financial and financial crisis periods, the results show that investors might make profits by using Variable Length Moving Average (VMA) trading rules as buying signals rather than as selling signals shown for the Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) stock markets. However, investors may find it difficult to make profits in a financial crisis period, suggesting that more detailed information should be investigated, since the significant results shown during the full period might not reveal the differences between the pre-financial and financial crisis periods.[[notice]]補正完

The US treasury market in August 1998: untangling the effects of Hong Kong and Russia with high-frequency data

The second half of August 1998 was dominated by two events. From 14 to 28 August, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the Hong Kong equity markets to prevent a speculative double play against their currency board. On 17 August, Russia announced its default on sovereign bonds. This paper demonstrates that the HKMA interventions had a substantial impact on the outcomes for US Treasury markets during this period. Using a careful analysis of high frequency bond market data, both events are shown to intersect the US Treasury market, despite having oroginated from seemingly unrelated shocks. On this eveidence, the shocks emanating from Hong Kong were important for the US Treasury market. The lesson for policy makers is that major markets play an important role in transmitting and absorbing the effects of unrelated shocks.ESRC Research Programme on World Economy & Financ

Political institutions and debt crises

This paper shows that political institutions matter in explaining defaults on external and domestic debt obligations. We explore a large number of political and macroeconomic variables using a non-parametric technique to predict safety from default. The advantage of this technique is that it is able to identify patterns in the data that are not captured in standard probit analysis. We find that political factors matter, and do so in different ways for democratic and non-democratic regimes, and for domestic and external debt. In democracies, a parliamentary system or sufficient checks and balances almost guarantee the absence of default on external debt when economic fundamentals or liquidity are sufficiently strong. In dictatorships, high stability and tenure play a similar role for default on domestic debt

Regional vulnerability: the case of East Asia

In a case study of six East Asian economies, we use dynamic factor analysis to estimate a regional component of the exchange market pressure index (EMPI) as a measure of regional financial stress. The extent to which this indicator is explained by regional economic and financial factors is interpreted as regional vulnerability to crisis. We find that regional external liabilities and exuberance in domestic stock and credit markets, as well as the US high yield spread, were positively correlated with regional vulnerability. Individual country EMPIs are also explained by regional factors, with country-specific factors and trade linkages playing little role