Increased HIV Incidence in Men Who Have Sex with Men Despite High Levels of ART-Induced Viral Suppression: Analysis of an Extensively Documented Epidemic

Background: There is interest in expanding ART to prevent HIV transmission, but in the group with the highest levels of ART use, men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), numbers of new infections diagnosed each year have not decreased as ART coverage has increased for reasons which remain unclear. Methods: We analysed data on the HIV-epidemic in MSM in the UK from a range of sources using an individual-based simulation model. Model runs using parameter sets found to result in good model fit were used to infer changes in HIV-incidence and risk behaviour. Results: HIV-incidence has increased (estimated mean incidence 0.30/100 person-years 1990–1997, 0.45/100 py 1998–2010), associated with a modest (26%) rise in condomless sex. We also explored counter-factual scenarios: had ART not been introduced, but the rise in condomless sex had still occurred, then incidence 2006–2010 was 68% higher; a policy of ART initiation in all diagnosed with HIV from 2001 resulted in 32% lower incidence; had levels of HIV testing been higher (68% tested/year instead of 25%) incidence was 25% lower; a combination of higher testing and ART at diagnosis resulted in 62% lower incidence; cessation of all condom use in 2000 resulted in a 424% increase in incidence. In 2010, we estimate that undiagnosed men, the majority in primary infection, accounted for 82% of new infections. Conclusion: A rise in HIV-incidence has occurred in MSM in the UK despite an only modest increase in levels of condomless sex and high coverage of ART. ART has almost certainly exerted a limiting effect on incidence. Much higher rates of HIV testing combined with initiation of ART at diagnosis would be likely to lead to substantial reductions in HIV incidence. Increased condom use should be promoted to avoid the erosion of the benefits of ART and to prevent other serious sexually transmitted infections

Essentials of Filoviral Load Quantification

Quantitative measurement of viral load is an important parameter in the management of filovirus disease outbreaks because viral load correlates with severity of disease, survival, and infectivity. During the ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in parts of Western Africa, most assays used in the detection of Ebola virus disease by more than 44 diagnostic laboratories yielded qualitative results. Regulatory hurdles involved in validating quantitative assays and the urgent need for a rapid Ebola virus disease diagnosis precluded development of validated quantitative assays during the outbreak. Because of sparse quantitative data obtained from these outbreaks, opportunities for study of correlations between patient outcome, changes in viral load during the course of an outbreak, disease course in asymptomatic individuals, and the potential for virus transmission between infected patients and contacts have been limited. We strongly urge the continued development of quantitative viral load assays to carefully evaluate these parameters in future outbreaks of filovirus disease

Ten year experience with antiretroviral treatment in Cambodia: Trends in patient characteristics and treatment outcomes

<div><p>Background</p><p>Although HIV disease stage at ART initiation critically determines ART outcomes, few reports have longitudinally monitored this within Asia. Using prospectively collected data from a large ART program at Sihanouk Hospital Center of Hope in Cambodia, we report on the change in patient characteristics and outcomes over a ten-year period.</p><p>Methods</p><p>We conducted a retrospective analysis including all adults (≥ 18 years old) starting ART from March 2003-March 2013 in a non-governmental hospital in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. The cumulative incidence of death, lost to follow-up (LTFU), attrition (death or LTFU) and first line treatment failure were calculated using Kaplan-Meier methods. Independent risk factors for these outcomes were determined using Cox regression modeling.</p><p>Results</p><p>Over the ten-year period, 3581 patients initiated ART with a median follow-up time of 4.8 years (IQR 2.8–7.2). The median age was 35 years (IQR 30–41), 54% were female. The median CD4 count at ART initiation increased from 22 cells/μL (IQR 4–129) in 2003 to 218 (IQR 57–302) in 2013. Over the 10 year period, a total of 282 (7.9%) individuals died and 433 (12.1%) were defined LTFU. Program attrition (died or LTFU) was 11.1% (95% CI: 10.1%- 12.4%) at one year, 16.3% (95% CI: 15.1%-17.6%) at three years, 19.8% (95% CI: 18.5%-21.2%) at five years and 23.3% (95% CI: 21.6–25.1) at ten years. Male sex and low baseline body mass index (BMI) were associated with increased attrition.</p><p>Factors independently associated with mortality included a low baseline CD4 count, older age, male sex, low baseline BMI and hepatitis B co-infection. Individuals aged above 40 years old had an increased risk of mortality but were less likely to LTFU.</p><p>There were a total of 137 individuals with first line ART failure starting second line treatment. The probability of first line failure was estimated at 2.8% (95% CI: 2.3%-3.4%) at 3 years, 4.6% (95% CI: 3.9%-5.5%) at 5 years and 7.8% (95% CI 4.8%-12.5%) at ten years of ART. The probability was particularly high in the first few program years. A lower risk was observed among individuals starting ART during the 2006–2008 period. Factors independently associated with an increased risk of treatment failure included ART-experience, NVP-based ART and a baseline CD4 count below 200 cells/μL.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>Overall program outcomes were fair, and generally compare well to other reports from the region. Despite gradually earlier initiation of ART over the ten year period, ART is still initiated at too low CD4 count levels, warranting increased efforts for early HIV diagnosis and enrolment/retention into HIV care. Tailored strategies for poor prognostic groups (older age, male, low BMI) should be designed and evaluated.</p></div

First-line antiretroviral treatment failure in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, stratified by period (2003–2014).

<p>First-line antiretroviral treatment failure in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, stratified by period (2003–2014).</p

CD4 cell count evolution after initiation of antiretroviral treatment stratified by period (2003–2013).

<p>CD4 cell count evolution after initiation of antiretroviral treatment stratified by period (2003–2013).</p

Independent risk factors for death, lost to follow-up, attrition and first-line antiretroviral treatment failure (2003–2013; N = 3581).

<p>Independent risk factors for death, lost to follow-up, attrition and first-line antiretroviral treatment failure (2003–2013; N = 3581).</p