Evaluating uncertain CO2 abatement over the very long term

Climate change research with the economic methodology of cost–benefit analysis is challenging because of valuation and ethical issues associated with the long delays between CO2 emissions and much of their potential damages, typically of several centuries. The large uncertainties with which climate change impacts are known today and the possibly temporary nature of some envisaged CO2 abatement options exacerbate this challenge. For example, potential leakage of CO2 from geological reservoirs, after this greenhouse gas has been stored artificially underground for climate control reasons, requires an analysis in which the uncertain climatic consequences of leakage are valued over many centuries. We here present a discussion of some of the relevant questions in this context and provide calculations with the top–down energy-environment-economy model DEMETER. Given the long-term features of the climate change conundrum as well as of technologies that can contribute to its solution, we considered it necessary extending DEMETER to cover a period from today until the year 3000, a time span so far hardly investigated with integrated assessment models of climate change

Exploring the causes of adverse events in hospitals and potential prevention strategies

Objectives To examine the causes of adverse events (AEs) and potential prevention strategies to minimise the occurrence of AEs in hospitalised patients. Methods For the 744 AEs identified in the patient record review study in 21 Dutch hospitals, trained reviewers were asked to select all causal factors that contributed to the AE. The results were analysed together with data on preventability and consequences of AEs. In addition, the reviewers selected one or more prevention strategies for each preventable AE. The recommended prevention strategies were analysed together with four general causal categories: technical, human, organisational and patient-related factors. Results Human causes were predominantly involved in the causation of AEs (in 61% of the AEs), 61% of those being preventable and 13% leading to permanent disability. In 39% of the AEs, patient-related factors were involved, in 14% organisational factors and in 4% technical factors. Organisational causes contributed relatively often to preventable AEs (93%) and AEs resulting in permanent disability (20%). Recommended strategies to prevent AEs were quality assurance/peer review, evaluation of safety behaviour, training and procedures. For the AEs with human and patient-related causes, reviewers predominantly recommended quality assurance/peer review. AEs caused by organisational factors were considered preventable by improving procedures. Discussion Healthcare interventions directed at human causes are recommended because these play a large role in AE causation. In addition, it seems worthwhile to direct interventions on organisational causes because the AEs they cause are nearly always believed to be preventable. Organisational factors are thus relatively easy to tackle. Future research designs should allow researchers to interview healthcare providers that were involved in the event, as an additional source of information on contributing factors.

A Structural and Dynamical Study of Late-Type, Edge-On Galaxies: I. Sample Selection and Imaging Data

We present optical (B & R) and infrared (K_s) images and photometry for a sample of 49 extremely late-type, edge-on disk galaxies selected from the Flat Galaxy Catalog of Karenchentsev et al. (1993). Our sample was selected to include galaxies with particularly large axial ratios, increading the likelihood that the galaxies in the sample are truly edge-on. We have also concentrated the sample on galaxies with low apparent surface brightness, in order to increase the representation of intrinisically low surface brightness galaxies. Finally, the sample was chosen to have no apprarent bulges or optical warps so that the galaxies represent undisturbed, ``pure disk'' systems. The resulting sample forms the basis for a much larger spectroscopic study designed to place constraints on the physical quantities and processes which shape disk galaxies. The imaging data presented in this paper has been painstakingly reduced and calibrated to allow accurate surface photometry of features as faint as 30 mag/sqr-arcsec in B and 29 mag/sqr-arcsec in R on scales larger than 10 arcsec. Due to limitations in sky subtraction and flat fielding, the infrared data can reach only to 22.5 mag/sqr-arcsec in K_s on comparable scales. As part of this work, we have developed a new method for quantifying the reliability of surface photometry, which provides useful diagnostics for the presence of scattered light, optical emission from infrared cirrus, and other sources of non-uniform sky backgrounds.Comment: scheduled to appear in the Astronomical Journal, LaTeX, 36 pages including 7 pages of figures (fig 1-2,4). A low resolution version of Figure 3 is included in JPEG format; contours are seriously degraded. A full resolution Postscript version of Figure 3 (10.6Mb,gzipped) is available through anonymous ftp at ftp://ftp.astro.washington.edu/pub/users/jd/FGC/dalcanton.f3.ps.g

Comparing Galaxies and Lyman Alpha Absorbers at Low Redshift

A scenario is explored in which Lyman alpha absorbers at low redshift arise from lines of sight through extended galaxy disks, including those of dwarf and low surface brightness galaxies. A population of galaxies is simulated based upon observed distributions of galaxy properties, and the gas disks are modeled using pressure and gravity confinement. Some parameter values are ruled out by comparing simulation results with the observed galaxy luminosity function, and constraints may be made on the absorbing cross sections of galaxies. Simulation results indicate that it is difficult to match absorbers with particular galaxies observationally since absorption typically occurs at high impact parameters (>200 kpc) from luminous galaxies. Low impact parameter absorption is dominated by low luminosity dwarfs. A large fraction of absorption lines is found to originate from low surface brightness galaxies, so that the absorbing galaxy is likely to be misidentified. Low redshift Lyman alpha absorber counts can easily be explained by moderately extended galaxy disks when low surface brightness galaxies are included, and it is easily possible to find a scenario which is consistent with observed the galaxy luminosity function, with low redshift Lyman limit absorber counts, and with standard nucleosynthesis predictions of the baryon density, Omega_Baryon.Comment: 17 pages, 8 figures, accepted to the Astrophysical Journa

Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: a multi-model analysis

AbstractMexico’s climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets—30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. Both energy use and GHG emissions in Mexico have grown substantially over the last two decades. We investigate how Mexico might reverse current trends and reach its mitigation targets by exploring results from energy system and economic models involved in the CLIMACAP-LAMP project. To meet Mexico’s emission reduction targets, all modeling groups agree that decarbonization of electricity is needed, along with changes in the transport sector, either to more efficient vehicles or a combination of more efficient vehicles and lower carbon fuels. These measures reduce GHG emissions as well as emissions of other air pollutants. The models find different energy supply pathways, with some solutions based on renewable energy and others relying on biomass or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The economy-wide costs of deep mitigation could range from 2% to 4% of GDP in 2030, and from 7% to 15% of GDP in 2050. Our results suggest that Mexico has some flexibility in designing deep mitigation strategies, and that technological options could allow Mexico to achieve its emission reduction targets, albeit at a cost to the country

A Nuclear Solution to Climate Change?

The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous changes in climate. An ambitious target would be stabilization at an equivalent doubling of the preindustrial CO2 concentration. To achieve this, fossil-fuel carbon emissions in 2050 should not exceed their current level, despite an expected doubling or tripling in world demand for energy. Lacking a crystal ball that tells us the future, we simply select one possible scenario that achieves the emissions target. We assume that by 2050, world population and average per-capita energy consumption each rise by 50%, with annual world primary energy consumption reaching 900 EJ (exajoules, 1018 joules). A roughly equal contribution of 300 EJ each is assumed for conventional fossil fuels, for renewable and "decarbonized" fossil fuel sources, and for nuclear fission. This is a challenging scenario, especially because restraining the increase in average per-capita energy consumption in the face of the economic aspirations of developing countries will require substantial improvements in energy efficiency

Exploring Neutral Hydrogen and Galaxy Evolution with the SKA

One of the key science drivers for the development of the SKA is to observe the neutral hydrogen, HI, in galaxies as a means to probe galaxy evolution across a range of environments over cosmic time. Over the past decade, much progress has been made in theoretical simulations and observations of HI in galaxies. However, recent HI surveys on both single dish radio telescopes and interferometers, while providing detailed information on global HI properties, the dark matter distribution in galaxies, as well as insight into the relationship between star formation and the interstellar medium, have been limited to the local universe. Ongoing and upcoming HI surveys on SKA pathfinder instruments will extend these measurements beyond the local universe to intermediate redshifts with long observing programmes. We present here an overview of the HI science which will be possible with the increased capabilities of the SKA and which will build upon the expected increase in knowledge of HI in and around galaxies obtained with the SKA pathfinder surveys. With the SKA1 the greatest improvement over our current measurements is the capability to image galaxies at reasonable linear resolution and good column density sensitivity to much higher redshifts (0.2 < z < 1.7). So one will not only be able to increase the number of detections to study the evolution of the HI mass function, but also have the sensitivity and resolution to study inflows and outflows to and from galaxies and the kinematics of the gas within and around galaxies as a function of environment and cosmic time out to previously unexplored depths. The increased sensitivity of SKA2 will allow us to image Milky Way-size galaxies out to redshifts of z=1 and will provide the data required for a comprehensive picture of the HI content of galaxies back to z~2 when the cosmic star formation rate density was at its peak.Comment: 25 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables. Contribution to the conference 'Advancing Astrophysics with the Square Kilometre Array', June 8-13, 2014, Giardini Naxos, Ital