Perfiles hematológicos en pacientes infectados con malaria en un área endémica del Perú

Objetivos. Evaluar la variación de los perfiles hematológicos antes, durante y después del tratamiento de pacientes infectados con malaria no complicada por Plasmodium vivax (Pv) y P. falciparum (Pf) en una población de la región Loreto. Materiales y métodos. El estudio se realizó entre 2010 y 2012, en Zungarococha (Iquitos). Los 425 participantes tuvieron tres visitas (visita 1-día 0-antes del tratamiento, visita 2-día 7-durante tratamiento, visita 3-día 28-después del tratamiento), hemograma completo, diagnóstico microscópico y molecular (PCR). Resultados. En la primera visita, se encontraron 93 (21,9%) positivos a Pv y 34 (8,0%) a Pf. Todos los positivos mostraron una reducción en los indicadores hematológicos de hematocrito, recuento de glóbulos blancos (RGB), neutrófilos abastonados y segmentados, eosinófilos y plaquetas (p<0.001) en comparación con el grupo negativo. Se encontró un porcentaje mayor de neutrófilos abastonados en Pf y de neutrófilos segmentados en Pv comparado al grupo negativo. Se observó variaciones en los perfiles  hematológicos después del tratamiento para ambas especies, los neutrófilos abastonados disminuyeron, las plaquetas aumentaron, los eosinófilos se incrementaron al día 7 y decaen el día 28, el hematocrito y los neutrófilos segmentados disminuyeron al día 7 y se normalizaron el día 28. Las diferencias entre especies en el tiempo mostraron una disminución diaria de neutrófilos abastonados en infectados con Pv que en Pf. Conclusiones. El perfil hematológico en pacientes positivos a malaria no complicada varía en el tiempo durante y después del tratamiento. Estos son indicadores de la progresión de la enfermedad y ayudan en la vigilancia terapéutica de pacientes infectados con Plasmodium

Perfiles hematológicos en pacientes infectados con malaria en un área endémica del Perú [Hematological profiles of malaria-infected patients in an endemic area of Peru]

OBJECTIVES.: To evaluate the variation of hematological profiles of patients infected with uncomplicated Plasmodium vivax (Pv) and P. falciparum (Pf) malaria before, during and after treatment in a population of the Loreto region. MATERIALS AND METHODS.: This study was conducted between 2010 and 2012, in Zungarococha (Iquitos). The 425 participants had three visits (visit 1-day 0-before treatment, visit 2-day 7-during treatment, visit 3-day 28-after treatment), complete blood count, microscopic and molecular diagnosis (PCR). RESULTS.: At the first visit, 93 (21.9%) participants were found positive for Pv and 34 (8.0%) for Pf. All positives showed a reduction in hematocrit, white blood cell count (WBC), ablated and segmented neutrophils, eosinophils and platelets (p<0.001) compared to the negative group. A higher percentage of ablated neutrophils was found in Pf and segmented neutrophils in Pv compared to the negative group. Variations in hematological profiles were observed after treatment for both species; ablated neutrophils decreased, platelets increased, eosinophils increased at day 7 and declined at day 28, hematocrit and segmented neutrophils decreased at day 7 and normalized at day 28. Interspecies differences over time showed a bigger daily decrease in ablated neutrophils in Pv-infected when compared to Pf. CONCLUSIONS.: The hematological profile in uncomplicated malaria-positive patients varies over time during and after treatment. These are indicators of disease progression and help in the therapeutic surveillance of Plasmodium-infected patients

Malaria Transmission and Spillover across the Peru-Ecuador Border: A Spatiotemporal Analysis.

Border regions have been implicated as important hot spots of malaria transmission, particularly in Latin America, where free movement rights mean that residents can cross borders using just a national ID. Additionally, rural livelihoods largely depend on short-term migrants traveling across borders via the Amazon's river networks to work in extractive industries, such as logging. As a result, there is likely considerable spillover across country borders, particularly along the border between Peru and Ecuador. This border region exhibits a steep gradient of transmission intensity, with Peru having a much higher incidence of malaria than Ecuador. In this paper, we integrate 13 years of weekly malaria surveillance data collected at the district level in Peru and the canton level in Ecuador, and leverage hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal regression models to identify the degree to which malaria transmission in Ecuador is influenced by transmission in Peru. We find that increased case incidence in Peruvian districts that border the Ecuadorian Amazon is associated with increased incidence in Ecuador. Our results highlight the importance of coordinated malaria control across borders

Early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in a southern hemisphere setting: Lima-Peru: February 29th-March 30th, 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic that emerged in Wuhan China has generated substantial morbidity and mortality impact around the world during the last four months. The daily trend in reported cases has been rapidly rising in Latin America since March 2020 with the great majority of the cases reported in Brazil followed by Peru as of April 15th, 2020. Although Peru implemented a range of social distancing measures soon after the confirmation of its first case on March 6th, 2020, the daily number of new COVID-19 cases continues to accumulate in this country. We assessed the early COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the effect of social distancing interventions in Lima, Peru. We estimated the reproduction number, R, during the early transmission phase in Lima from the daily series of imported and autochthonous cases by the date of symptoms onset as of March 30th, 2020. We also assessed the effect of social distancing interventions in Lima by generating short-term forecasts grounded on the early transmission dynamics before interventions were put in place. Prior to the implementation of the social distancing measures in Lima, the local incidence curve by the date of symptoms onset displays near exponential growth dynamics with the mean scaling of growth parameter, p, estimated at 0.96 (95% CI: 0.87, 1.0) and the reproduction number at 2.3 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.5). Our analysis indicates that school closures and other social distancing interventions have helped slow down the spread of the novel coronavirus, with the nearly exponential growth trend shifting to an approximately linear growth trend soon after the broad scale social distancing interventions were put in place by the government. While the interventions appear to have slowed the transmission rate in Lima, the number of new COVID-19 cases continue to accumulate, highlighting the need to strengthen social distancing and active case finding efforts to mitigate disease transmission in the region

SARS-CoV-2 prevalence associated to low socioeconomic status and overcrowding in an LMIC megacity: A population-based seroepidemiological survey in Lima, Peru.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, Peru has one of the highest infection fatality rates of COVID-19, and its capital city, Lima, accumulates roughly 50% of diagnosed cases. Despite surveillance efforts to assess the extent of the pandemic, reported cases and deaths only capture a fraction of its impact due to COVID-19's broad clinical spectrum. This study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Lima, stratified by age, sex, region, socioeconomic status (SES), overcrowding, and symptoms. METHODS: We conducted a multi-stage, population-based serosurvey in Lima, between June 28th and July 9th, 2020, after 115 days of the index case and after the first peak cases. We collected whole blood samples by finger-prick and applied a structured questionnaire. A point-of-care rapid serological test assessed IgM and IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Seroprevalence estimates were adjusted by sampling weights and test performance. Additionally, we performed RT-PCR molecular assays to seronegatives and estimated the infection prevalence. FINDINGS: We enrolled 3212 participants from 797 households and 241 sample clusters from Lima in the analysis. The SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 20·8% (95%CI 17·2-23·5), and the prevalence was 25·2% (95%CI 22·5-28·2). Seroprevalence was equally distributed by sex (aPR=0·96 [95%CI 0·85-1·09, p = 0·547]) and across all age groups, including ≥60 versus ≤11 years old (aPR=0·96 [95%CI 0·73-1·27, p = 0·783]). A gradual decrease in SES was associated with higher seroprevalence (aPR=3·41 [95%CI 1·90-6·12, p<0·001] in low SES). Also, a gradual increase in the overcrowding index was associated with higher seroprevalence (aPR=1·99 [95%CI 1·41-2·81, p<0·001] in the fourth quartile). Seroprevalence was also associated with contact with a suspected or confirmed COVID-19 case, whether a household member (48·9%, aPR=2·67 [95%CI 2·06-3·47, p<0·001]), other family members (27·3%, aPR=1·66 [95%CI 1·15-2·40, p = 0·008]) or a workmate (34·1%, aPR=2·26 [95%CI 1·53-3·35, p<0·001]). More than half of seropositive participants reported never having had symptoms (56·1%, 95% CI 49·7-62·3). INTERPRETATION: This first estimate of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Lima shows an intense transmission scenario, despite the government's numerous interventions early established. Susceptibles across age groups show that physical distancing interventions must not be relaxed. SES and overcrowding households are associated with seroprevalence. This study highlights the importance of considering the existing social inequalities for implementing the response to control transmission in low- and middle-income countries

Unravelling heterogeneous malaria transmission dynamics in the Peruvian Amazon: insights from a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a global health challenge, particularly in Peru's Loreto region. Despite ongoing efforts, high infection rates and asymptomatic cases perpetuate transmission. The Peruvian Ministry of Health's "Zero Malaria Plan" targets elimination. This novel study combines microscopic, molecular, and serological techniques to assess transmission intensity, identify epidemiological risk factors, and characterize species-specific patterns across villages. The findings aim to inform targeted interventions and support broader malaria elimination efforts in line with the Zero Malaria Plan initiative. METHODS: A cross-sectional malaria survey was conducted in the Zungarococha community, comprising the villages Llanchama (LL), Ninarumi (NI), Puerto Almendra (PA), and Zungarococha (ZG), using microscopic, molecular, and serological techniques to evaluate malaria transmission intensity. Statistical analysis, including multivariate-adjusted analysis, seroprevalence curves, and spatial clustering analysis, were performed to assess malaria prevalence, exposure, and risk factors. RESULTS: The survey revealed a high prevalence of asymptomatic infections (6% by microscopy and 18% by PCR), indicating that molecular methods are more sensitive for detecting asymptomatic infections. Seroprevalence varied significantly between villages, reflecting the heterogeneous malaria transmission dynamics. Multivariate analysis identified age, village, and limited bed net use as significant risk factors for malaria infection and species-specific exposure. Seroprevalence curves demonstrated community-specific patterns, with Llanchama and Puerto Almendra showing the highest seroconversion rates for both Plasmodium species. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights the diverse nature of malaria transmission in the Loreto region, particularly nothing the pronounced heterogeneity as transmission rates decline, especially in residual malaria scenarios. The use of molecular and serological techniques enhances the detection of current infections and past exposure, aiding in the identification of epidemiological risk factors. These findings underscore the importance of using molecular and serological tools to characterize malaria transmission patterns in low-endemic areas, which is crucial for planning and implementing targeted interventions and elimination strategies. This is particularly relevant for initiatives like the Zero Malaria Plan in the Peruvian Amazon

Quantitative methods: sample size calculation with Stata and R

El cálculo de tamaño de muestra es un aspecto esencial del diseño de estudios cuantitativos. Un adecuado tamaño de muestra nos permite determinar cuál es la mínima cantidad de participantes necesarios para probar nuestra hipótesis de interés. De esta manera, podemos reducir costos, maximizar el uso de nuestros recursos de investigación y garantizar la factibilidad del estudio. Contradictoriamente, a pesar de su relevancia muy pocos investigadores dominan esta habilidad. Esta revisión tiene por objeto revisar los conceptos básicos para realizar un cálculo de tamaño de muestra y compartir códigos de Stata y R específicamente diseñados para facilitar estos cálculos

epiverse-trace/epiparameter

Epiparameter is an R package that contains a library of epidemiological parameters for infectious diseases and a set classes and helper functions to be able to work with the data. It also includes functions to extract and convert parameters from reported summary statistics. It is developed at the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine as part of Epiverse-TRACE

IgG subclass responses to excreted-secreted antigens of Plasmodium falciparum in a low-transmission malaria area of the Peruvian Amazon

Abstract Background Malaria in Peru is concentrated in the Amazon region, especially in Loreto, and transmission is focused in rural and peri-urban communities. The government has approved a malaria elimination plan with a community approach and seeks to reduce the risk of transmission through preventive interventions, but asymptomatic and low-parasite-density infections are challenges for disease control and elimination. IgG antibodies play a critical role in combating infection through their ability to reduce parasitaemia and clinical symptoms. In particular, IgG subclasses have important roles in controlling malaria disease and may provide new insight into the development of malaria control strategies and understanding of malaria transmission. Through the use of excreted-secreted antigens from Plasmodium falciparum, were evaluated the responses of the four IgG subclasses in symptomatic and asymptomatic malarial infections. Results Higher levels of whole IgG were observed in asymptomatic carriers (P < 0.05). IgG3 and IgG1 were the most prevalent subclasses and did not show differences in their antibody levels in either type of carrier. All symptomatic carriers were positive for IgG4, and the presence of IgG3 and IgG2 were correlated with protection against parasitaemia. IgG2 showed lower prevalence and antibody titers in comparison to other subclasses. Conclusions This is the first study that characterizes the IgG subclass response in the Peruvian Amazon, and these results show that even in populations from regions with low malaria transmission, a certain degree of naturally acquired immunity can develop when the right antibody subclasses are produced. This provides important insight into the potential mechanisms regulating protective immunity

finalsize: Calculate the Final Size of an Epidemic

Calculate the final size of a susceptible-infectious-recovered epidemic in a population with demographic variation in contact patterns and susceptibility to disease, as discussed in Miller (2012)