A Universal Lifetime Distribution for Multi-Species Systems

Lifetime distributions of social entities, such as enterprises, products, and media contents, are one of the fundamental statistics characterizing the social dynamics. To investigate the lifetime distribution of mutually interacting systems, simple models having a rule for additions and deletions of entities are investigated. We found a quite universal lifetime distribution for various kinds of inter-entity interactions, and it is well fitted by a stretched-exponential function with an exponent close to 1/2. We propose a "modified Red-Queen" hypothesis to explain this distribution. We also review empirical studies on the lifetime distribution of social entities, and discussed the applicability of the model.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, Proceedings of Social Modeling and Simulations + Econophysics Colloquium 201

A Fully Bayesian Approach for Combining Multilevel Failure Information in Fault Tree Quantification and Corresponding Optimal Resource Allocation

This paper presents a fully Bayesian approach that simultaneously combines basic event and statistically independent higher event-level failure data in fault tree quantification. Such higher-level data could correspond to train, sub-system or system failure events. The full Bayesian approach also allows the highest-level data that are usually available for existing facilities to be automatically propagated to lower levels. A simple example illustrates the proposed approach. The optimal allocation of resources for collecting additional data from a choice of different level events is also presented. The optimization is achieved using a genetic algorithm

Protein co-evolution, co-adaptation and interactions

Co-evolution has an important function in the evolution of species and it is clearly manifested in certain scenarios such as host–parasite and predator–prey interactions, symbiosis and mutualism. The extrapolation of the concepts and methodologies developed for the study of species co-evolution at the molecular level has prompted the development of a variety of computational methods able to predict protein interactions through the characteristics of co-evolution. Particularly successful have been those methods that predict interactions at the genomic level based on the detection of pairs of protein families with similar evolutionary histories (similarity of phylogenetic trees: mirrortree). Future advances in this field will require a better understanding of the molecular basis of the co-evolution of protein families. Thus, it will be important to decipher the molecular mechanisms underlying the similarity observed in phylogenetic trees of interacting proteins, distinguishing direct specific molecular interactions from other general functional constraints. In particular, it will be important to separate the effects of physical interactions within protein complexes (‘co-adaptation') from other forces that, in a less specific way, can also create general patterns of co-evolution

Extending the behavioral immune system to political psychology: Are political conservativism and disgust sensitivity really related

Previous research suggests that several individual and cultural level attitudes, cognitions, and societal structures may have evolved to mitigate the pathogen threats posed by intergroup interactions. It has been suggested that these anti-pathogen defenses are at the root of conservative political ideology. Here, we test a hypothesis that political conservatism functions as a pathogen-avoidance strategy. Across three studies, we consistently find no relationship between sensitivity to pathogen disgust and multiple measures of political conservatism. These results are contrasted with theoretical perspectives suggesting a relationship between conservatism and pathogen avoidance, and with previous findings of a relationship between conservatism and disgust sensitivity

The diplomat's dilemma: Maximal power for minimal effort in social networks

Closeness is a global measure of centrality in networks, and a proxy for how influential actors are in social networks. In most network models, and many empirical networks, closeness is strongly correlated with degree. However, in social networks there is a cost of maintaining social ties. This leads to a situation (that can occur in the professional social networks of executives, lobbyists, diplomats and so on) where agents have the conflicting objectives of aiming for centrality while simultaneously keeping the degree low. We investigate this situation in an adaptive network-evolution model where agents optimize their positions in the network following individual strategies, and using only local information. The strategies are also optimized, based on the success of the agent and its neighbors. We measure and describe the time evolution of the network and the agents' strategies.Comment: Submitted to Adaptive Networks: Theory, Models and Applications, to be published from Springe

Does the Red Queen reign in the kingdom of digital organisms?

In competition experiments between two RNA viruses of equal or almost equal fitness, often both strains gain in fitness before one eventually excludes the other. This observation has been linked to the Red Queen effect, which describes a situation in which organisms have to constantly adapt just to keep their status quo. I carried out experiments with digital organisms (self-replicating computer programs) in order to clarify how the competing strains' location in fitness space influences the Red-Queen effect. I found that gains in fitness during competition were prevalent for organisms that were taken from the base of a fitness peak, but absent or rare for organisms that were taken from the top of a peak or from a considerable distance away from the nearest peak. In the latter two cases, either neutral drift and loss of the fittest mutants or the waiting time to the first beneficial mutation were more important factors. Moreover, I found that the Red-Queen dynamic in general led to faster exclusion than the other two mechanisms.Comment: 10 pages, 5 eps figure

A forward genetic screen identifies host factors that influence the lysis-lysogeny decision in phage lambda

The lysis‐lysogeny decision made by bacteriophage lambda is one of the classic problems of molecular biology. Shortly after infecting a cell, the virus can either go down the lytic pathway and make more viruses, or go down the lysogenic pathway and integrate itself into the host genome. While much is known about how this decision takes place, the extent to which host physiology influences this decision and the mechanisms by which this influence takes place has remained mysterious. To answer this question, we performed a forward genetic screen to systematically identify all of the genes in E. coli that influence the lysis‐lysogeny decision. Our results demonstrate previously unknown links between host physiology and viral decision making and shed new light on this classic system

Red Queen Coevolution on Fitness Landscapes

Species do not merely evolve, they also coevolve with other organisms. Coevolution is a major force driving interacting species to continuously evolve ex- ploring their fitness landscapes. Coevolution involves the coupling of species fit- ness landscapes, linking species genetic changes with their inter-specific ecological interactions. Here we first introduce the Red Queen hypothesis of evolution com- menting on some theoretical aspects and empirical evidences. As an introduction to the fitness landscape concept, we review key issues on evolution on simple and rugged fitness landscapes. Then we present key modeling examples of coevolution on different fitness landscapes at different scales, from RNA viruses to complex ecosystems and macroevolution.Comment: 40 pages, 12 figures. To appear in "Recent Advances in the Theory and Application of Fitness Landscapes" (H. Richter and A. Engelbrecht, eds.). Springer Series in Emergence, Complexity, and Computation, 201

Joint phenotypes, evolutionary conflict and the fundamental theorem of natural selection

Multiple organisms can sometimes affect a common phenotype. For example, the portion of a leaf eaten by an insect is a joint phenotype of the plant and insect and the amount of food obtained by an offspring can be a joint trait with its mother. Here, I describe the evolution of joint phenotypes in quantitative genetic terms. A joint phenotype for multiple species evolves as the sum of additive genetic variances in each species, weighted by the selection on each species. Selective conflict between the interactants occurs when selection takes opposite signs on the joint phenotype. The mean fitness of a population changes not just through its own genetic variance but also through the genetic variance for its fitness that resides in other species, an update of Fisher\u27s fundamental theorem of natural selection. Some similar results, using inclusive fitness, apply to within-species interactions. The models provide a framework for understanding evolutionary conflicts at all levels

The developmental dynamics of terrorist organizations

We identify robust statistical patterns in the frequency and severity of violent attacks by terrorist organizations as they grow and age. Using group-level static and dynamic analyses of terrorist events worldwide from 1968-2008 and a simulation model of organizational dynamics, we show that the production of violent events tends to accelerate with increasing size and experience. This coupling of frequency, experience and size arises from a fundamental positive feedback loop in which attacks lead to growth which leads to increased production of new attacks. In contrast, event severity is independent of both size and experience. Thus larger, more experienced organizations are more deadly because they attack more frequently, not because their attacks are more deadly, and large events are equally likely to come from large and small organizations. These results hold across political ideologies and time, suggesting that the frequency and severity of terrorism may be constrained by fundamental processes.Comment: 28 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables, supplementary materia