The impact of within-herd genetic variation upon inferred transmission trees for foot-and-mouth disease virus

Full-genome sequences have been used to monitor the fine-scale dynamics of epidemics caused by RNA viruses. However, the ability of this approach to confidently reconstruct transmission trees is limited by the knowledge of the genetic diversity of viruses that exist within different epidemiological units. In order to address this question, this study investigated the variability of 45 foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) genome sequences (from 33 animals) that were collected during 2007 from eight premises (10 different herds) in the United Kingdom. Bayesian and statistical parsimony analysis demonstrated that these sequences exhibited clustering which was consistent with a transmission scenario describing herd-to-herd spread of the virus. As an alternative to analysing all of the available samples in future epidemics, the impact of randomly selecting one sequence from each of these herds was used to assess cost-effective methods that might be used to infer transmission trees during FMD outbreaks. Using these approaches, 85% and 91% of the resulting topologies were either identical or differed by only one edge from a reference tree comprising all of the sequences generated within the outbreak. The sequence distances that accrued during sequential transmission events between epidemiological units was estimated to be 4.6 nucleotides, although the genetic variability between viruses recovered from chronic carrier animals was higher than between viruses from animals with acute-stage infection: an observation which poses challenges for the use of simple approaches to infer transmission trees. This study helps to develop strategies for sampling during FMD outbreaks, and provides data that will guide the development of further models to support control policies in the event of virus incursions into FMD free countries

Reconstruction of the Transmission History of RNA Virus Outbreaks Using Full Genome Sequences: Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Bulgaria in 2011

<div><p>Improvements to sequencing protocols and the development of computational phylogenetics have opened up opportunities to study the rapid evolution of RNA viruses in real time. In practical terms, these results can be combined with field data in order to reconstruct spatiotemporal scenarios that describe the origin and transmission pathways of viruses during an epidemic. In the case of notifiable diseases, such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), these analyses provide important insights into the epidemiology of field outbreaks that can support disease control programmes. This study reconstructs the origin and transmission history of the FMD outbreaks which occurred during 2011 in Burgas Province, Bulgaria, a country that had been previously FMD-free-without-vaccination since 1996. Nineteen full genome sequences (FGS) of FMD virus (FMDV) were generated and analysed, including eight representative viruses from all of the virus-positive outbreaks of the disease in the country and 11 closely-related contemporary viruses from countries in the region where FMD is endemic (Turkey and Israel). All Bulgarian sequences shared a single putative common ancestor which was closely related to the index case identified in wild boar. The closest relative from outside of Bulgaria was a FMDV collected during 2010 in Bursa (Anatolia, Turkey). Within Bulgaria, two discrete genetic clusters were detected that corresponded to two episodes of outbreaks that occurred during January and March-April 2011. The number of nucleotide substitutions that were present between, and within, these separate clusters provided evidence that undetected FMDV infection had occurred. These conclusions are supported by laboratory data that subsequently identified three additional FMDV-infected livestock premises by serosurveillance, as well as a number of antibody positive wild boar on both sides of the border with Turkish Thrace. This study highlights how FGS analysis can be used as an effective on-the-spot tool to support and help direct epidemiological investigations of field outbreaks.</p> </div

New technologies to diagnose and monitor infectious diseases of livestock: Challenges for sub-Saharan Africa

Using foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) as an example, this review describes new tools that can be used to detect and characterise livestock diseases. In recent years, molecular tests that can detect and characterise pathogens in a diverse range of sample types have revolutionised laboratory diagnostics. In addition to use in centralised laboratories, there are opportunities to locate diagnostic technologies close to the animals with suspected clinical signs. Work in this area has developed simple-to-use lateral-flow devices for the detection of FMD virus (FMDV), as well as new hardware platforms to allow molecular testing to be deployed into the field for use by non-specialists. Once FMDV has been detected, nucleotide sequencing is used to compare field strains with reference viruses. Transboundary movements of FMDV are routinely monitored using VP1 sequence data, while higher resolution transmission trees (at the farm-to-farm level) can be reconstructed using full-genome sequencing approaches. New technologies such as next-generation sequencing technologies are now being applied to dissect the viral sequence populations that exist within single samples. The driving force for the use of these technologies has largely been influenced by the priorities of developed countries with FMD-free (without vaccination) status. However, it is important to recognise that these approaches also show considerable promise for use in countries where FMD is endemic, although further modifications (such as sample archiving and strain and serotype characterisation) may be required to tailor these tests for use in these regions. Access to these new diagnostic and sequencing technologies in sub-Saharan Africa have the potential to provide novel insights into FMD epidemiology and will impact upon improved strategies for disease control. Effective control of infectious diseases is reliant upon accurate diagnosis of clinical cases using laboratory tests, together with an understanding of factors that impact upon the epidemiology of the infectious agent. A wide range of new diagnostic tools and nucleotide sequencing methods are used by international reference laboratories to detect and characterise the agents causing outbreaks of infectious diseases. In the past, high costs (initial capital expenses, as well as day-to-day maintenance and running costs) and complexity of the protocols used to perform some of these tests have limited the use of these methods in smaller laboratories. However, simpler and more cost-effective formats are now being developed that offer the prospect that these technologies will be even more widely deployed into laboratories particularly those in developing regions of the world such as sub-Saharan Africa

Spatiotemporal dynamics of the FMDV epidemic in Bulgarian 2011.

<p>The simplest option was considered for the selection of the gamma-random-relaxed-walk (RRW) continuous diffusion model. The isolate from Israel was excluded from this analysis,. Satellite imagery: GoogleEarth. Date accessed: 25 May 2012. Co-ordinates: 40°57′25.89″N, 28°27′28.38″E (A); 42°04′27.07″N, 27°39′47.60″E (B) 42°09′01.30″N, 27°09′42.18″E (C). <b>A</b>. FMDV spread from the North-West of Turkey throughout Bursa (Anatolia, Turkey) to Brugas (Bulgaria). The uncertainity on the location the virus is represented by transparent polygons (80% HPD). Turkish Thrace might have been infected before November 2010, which is plausible with the serological results in wild boar. <b>B</b>. The transmission infection pathways between the wild boar, outbreaks 1, 2, 3 and the second wave of outbreaks is not clarified. It might be explained by un-sampled notified sites/outbreaks or by a reservoir in wildlife (i.e. wild boar), both hypotheses are compatible with a genetically and spatiotemporally close FMDV replicating within a host. <b>C</b>. The genetic spatiotemporal reconstruction of the second wave of outbreaks linked them to each other, in agreement with epidemiological data, i.e. owners from animals in outbreak 6 had animals in the location of outbreak 4.</p

Bayesian maximum-clade-credibility time-scaled phylogenetic tree (BEAST) generated using 19 sequenced FMDV full genomes.

<p>The analysis was undertaken using a GTR substitution model, relaxed clock, constant population size, sampling 30.000 trees from 30 million generations. Uncertainty for the date of each node (95% highest posterior density – HPD - intervals) is displayed in bars. Only node labels with posterior over 0.8 are indicated. Overall, a rate of nucleotide substitution of 9.05×10⁻³ (95% HPD: 6.99–11.11×10⁻³) per site per year was estimated.</p