The impact of climate change on water and energy security

Abstract The interdependent fundamental systems, water and energy, face abundant challenges, one of which is climate change, which is expected to aggravate water and energy securities. The hydropower industry's benefits have led to its development and growth around the world. Nonetheless, climate change is expected to disturb the future performance of hydropower plants. This study looks at the Seimareh Hydropower Plant to assess the potential vulnerability of hydropower plants to climate change. Results indicate that climate change will affect the area's hydrological variables and suggest an increase in temperatures and decrease in precipitation during a 30-year future period (2040–2069). It is predicted that Seimareh Dam's inflow will decrease by between 5.2% and 13.4% in the same period. These hydrological changes will affect the Seimareh plant's performance: current predictions are that the total energy produced will decrease by between 8.4% and 16.3%. This research indicates the necessity of considering climate change impacts in designing and maintaining hydraulic structures to reach their optimal performance

Ecohydrologic Modeling for Investigating the Effects of Human-Induced Environmental Stressors on Freshwater Resources

L'abstract è presente nell'allegato / the abstract is in the attachmen

Ecohydrologic modeling using nitrate, ammonium, phosphorus, and macroinvertebrates as aquatic ecosystem health indicators of Albaida Valley (Spain)

Study region: Albaida Valley, Spain. Study focus: Rivers are experiencing a rapid biodiversity loss largely due to water quality degradation imposed by anthropogenic activities. To show the capability of modeling to inform water management at watershed scales, this research develops an eco-hydrological model of the Albaida Valley (Spain). SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) is used for modeling of discharge and nutrients after calibration with SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Program). Results from SWAT are coupled to regressions between nutrients concentrations and macroinvertebrate-based metrics obtained from field monitoring. The spatio-temporal assessment of ecological status of streams is then carried out using simulated chemical and biological quality indicators (nitrate, ammonium, phosphorus, and macroinvertebrates). New hydrological insights for the region: Management measures (e.g., improving treatment of wastewater and/or adopting policies for reducing fertilizer use) are needed as the ecological status of Albaida Valley rivers is mostly classified as poor because of nutrients pollution. The reasonably low uncertainty in the model prediction (expressed by R-factor: discharge (0.2–0.61), nitrate (0.79–1.27) and total phosphorus (0.8–1.68)) demonstrates the potential of the presented model for future applications (i.e., for investigating possible responses of the Albaida Valley ecosystem to changes in climate, land-use, and local management policies). The modeling approach provided in this study could be generally used as a complementary technique to field monitoring in assessing and managing ecological conditions of river

Climate change impact on the ecological status of rivers: The case of Albaida Valley (SE Spain)

Understanding the effects of environmental stressors (e.g., potential changes in climate and land use) on ecological status is essential for freshwater management. The ecological response of rivers to stressors can be evaluated by several physico-chemical, biological, and hydromorphological elements as well as computer tools. In this study, an ecohydrological model based on SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) is used to investigate climate change impact on the ecological status of Albaida Valley Rivers. The predictions of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) each with four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are employed as input to the model for simulating several chemical and biological quality indicators (nitrate, ammonium, total phosphorus, and the IBMWP (Iberian Biological Monitoring Working Party) index) in three future periods (Near Future: 2025–2049, Mid Future: 2050–2074, and Far Future: 2075–2099). Based on chemical and biological status predicted with the model, the ecological status is determined at 14 representative sites. As a result of increased temperatures and decreased precipitations from most of GCMs projections, the model predicts decreased river discharge, increased concentrations of nutrients, and decreased values of IBMWP for future compared to the baseline period (2005–2017). While most representative sites have poor ecological status (10 sites with poor ecological status and four sites with bad ecological status) in the baseline, our model projects bad ecological status for most representative sites (four sites with poor ecological status and 10 sites with bad ecological status) under most emission scenarios in the future. It should be noted that the bad ecological status is projected for all 14 sites under the most extreme scenario (i.e., RCP8.5) in the Far Future. Despite the different emission scenarios, and all possible changes in water temperature and annual precipitation, our findings emphasize the urgent need for scientifically informed decisions to manage and preserve freshwaters