Positiivse tingimuslikkuse tähtsus ja mõju Euroopa Liidu laienemispoliitikas

Väitekirja elektrooniline versioon ei sisalda publikatsioone.Laienemised on Euroopa Liitu ja sellele eelnenud Euroopa Ühendusi 60 aasta jooksul märkimisväärselt muutnud, arvestades, et kuue asutajaliikmega on tänaseks liitunud veel 21 uut liikmesriiki. Eesti jaoks olid laienemisprotsessi olulisimad aastad 1993-2004, mil laienemispõhimõtete ja tingimuste mõistmisest sõltus meie enda liitumise võimalikkus ja tempo. Just antud perioodi alguses, 1993. Aastal, kujunes laienemispõhimõtete keskseks loogikas nn. positiivne tingimuslikkus, mis määratles kandidaatriikidele seatavate tingimuste sisu, kriteeriumid ja koostöö vormi. Aastal 2004, mil 10 uut liikmesriiki EL-ga ühines, tõdeti, et positiivse tingimuslikkuse ellukutsumine oli osutunud edukaks ning seda nähti ka edaspidi laienemispoliitika keskse mudelina. Järgnevate kandidaatriikide kaasamine paraku ei osutunud efektiivseks, mis omakorda tõstatas vajaduse positiivset tingimuslikkuse toimimist täiendavalt analüüsida. Käesoleva doktoritöö uuribki, millised huvid, väärtused ja motiivid suunasid positiivse tingimuslikkuse kujunemist ning millised teooriad suudavad selle arengut kõige argumenteeritumalt seletada. Uurimuse käigus selgus, et positiivse tingimuslikkuse kasutamine perioodil 1993-2006 EL laienemispoliitika keskse instrumendina, oli erakordne, nii oma mõju, komplekssuse, kui ka tähtsuse osas. Samuti ilmnes, et laienemistingimuslikkuse eesmärgid ja väärtused on olnud pidevas arengus: algselt domineerinud neo-funktsionalistlikud huvid asendusid järgnevate laienemiste käigus esmalt valitsustevahelise huvidega ning viimases kahes laienemisringis neo-imperialistlike ja neo-institutsionalistlike huvidega. Positiivne tingimuslikkuse kasutamisel on enamik kandidaatriike arenenud mõneti kiiremini kui EL keskmiselt, siiski ei ole nende areng olnud silmapaistvalt edukas: nii olid 5. ja 6. laienemisring EL ajaloo pikima kestusega ja sisaldades lõpuks ikkagi vaeseimad liitujad EL ajaloos. Uuringu tulemusel ilmnes, et mitte positiivne tingimuslikkus ei pruukinud olla viienda laienemisvooru edu keskseks teguriks, vaid hoopis erakordselt koostöövalmid kandidaatriigid. Positiivse tingimuslikkuse ideel on viimastel aastatel olnud aina vähem toetajaid ning mudeli tulevik näib vähem perspektiivne, kui viie aasta eest, mil toimus viimane laienemine.Positive conditionality has found intensive use by the European Union (EU) during last 20 years in the fields of enlargement and neighbourhood policy. It has also been in process of remarkable development and change during the period 1993-2011. The central interest of dissertation was to research which fundamental values and purposes EU pre-accession conditionality was serving. Was it fastest and most effective accession framework? Were these the interests of existing member states or representing the compromise for all sides? Did the target countries actually catch up the existing EU welfare level and which were the long term effects? Positive conditionality has not been used in similar terms during all six rounds of accession. The use of positive conditionality has been growing during the enlargement history and it has not been inevitable part of enlargement. Best results with positive conditionality were achieved during 5th accession round. Conditionality provided positive convergence effect in most candidate states, but the difference with EU average was not extraordinary and not all the candidate countries managed to use it for effective social and economic transition. Despite positive feedback from participants, 5th and 6th enlargements were the longest in the history and even after more than 10 years of preparation, Romania and Bulgaria were the poorest applicants ever accessed the EU. Research indicated connection between efficiency of conditionality and the commitment of target area. Accordingly, positive conditionality cannot be seen as universal enlargement policy model, as in cases of passive or sceptical recipient side, efficiency of model will drop, attempts to get results without influential “stick and carrot” were unsuccessful. Assessments and Progress Reports as part of positive conditionality were not used only to select candidate countries and evaluate their progress, but also to justify political reality. The future of pre-accession conditionality seems less promising today than 5 years ago when last enlargement took place: when having a forced start in 1993 pre-accession positive conditionality was developed to control and support the biggest enlargement in the EU history, 19 years later only Croatia has a visible accession prospects and enlargement in general has lost its central role in EU development

Relevance of Copenhagen Criteria in Actual Accession: Principles, Methods and Shortcomings of EU Pre-accession Evaluation

"This paper will analyse the transparency, impartiality and objectiveness of the European Union’s (EU) pre-accession assessment procedure. The principal aim is to test and analyse whether the EU follows official and objective criteria in its progress reports or if is it dominated by institutional and national interests. The central questions of the paper are: What were the main motivators of the EU’s independent closed assessment system for the pre-accession process and what influence did this have on the accession process during the years 2004–2006? To answer these questions, the paper will compare the European Commission’s (Commission) progress reports on selected candidate countries with the assessments of six other respected research centres: the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, Freedom House, the Bertelsmann Foundation, Transparency International, Fraser Institute and the Heritage Foundation. If the evaluation results of the EU differ significantly or systematically from the calculated average of the other evaluators, then there is a need to analyse the methods, logic and motivation of the European Commission during the pre-accession evaluation, as there is a possibility of subjectivity and politicised evaluation. This analysis covers the main areas of the Copenhagen Criteria. The test cases will be pre-accession progress assessments of Bulgaria, Croatia, FYROM and Romania in 2004–2006. Test areas will consist of: Governance efficiency; Existence and quality of rule of law; Level of corruption and efficiency of anticorruption activities; Efficiency of legal system, and Economic liberties and freedoms." (author's abstract

Relevance of Copenhagen Criteria in Actual Accession: Principles, Methods and Shortcomings of EU Pre-accession Evaluation

This paper will analyse the transparency, impartiality and objectiveness of the European Union’s (EU) preaccession assessment procedure. The principal aim is to test and analyse whether the EU follows offi cial and objective criteria in its progress reports or if is it dominated by institutional and national interests. The central questions of the paper are: What were the main motivators of the EU’s independent closed assessment system for the pre-accession process and what infl uence did this have on the accession process during the years 2004–2006?To answer these questions, the paper will compare the European Commission’s (Commission) progress reports on selected candidate countries with the assessments of six other respected research centres: the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, Freedom House, the Bertelsmann Foundation, Transparency International, Fraser Institute and the Heritage Foundation. If the evaluation results of the EU diff er signifi cantly or systematically from the calculated average of the other evaluators, then there is a need to analyse the methods, logic and motivation of the European Commission during the preaccession evaluation, as there is a possibility of subjectivity and politicised evaluation.This analysis covers the main areas of the Copenhagen Criteria. The test cases will be pre-accession progress assessments of Bulgaria, Croatia, FYROM and Romania in 2004–2006. Test areas will consist of: Governance effi ciency; Existence and quality of rule of law; Level of corruption and effi ciency of anticorruption activities; Effi ciency of legal system, and Economic liberties and freedoms

EL poliitikavaldkonnad ja komitoloogia

BeSt programmi toetusel loodud e-kursuse "EL poliitikavaldkonnad ja komitoloogia" õppematerjalid

Der Handel zwischen Russland und den Baltischen Staaten: Pfadabhängigkeit oder wirtschaftliche Rationalität?

In recent 25 years, trade relation between Russia and the Baltic countries have been often challenged by constant setbacks. However, despite it the Baltic countries have been interested in developing trade relations with Russia. The article focuses on the question, whether this pattern could be related to the path dependence approach or to specific economic factors, derived from the economic growth and business cycle theories and the small open economy models. On this basis, it also discusses the outlook for the normalisation of trade relations, assuming that sanctions will be eliminated at a certain moment in time. The authors argue that in theory, the normalisation of trade relations is possible if: a) the cooperation between the EU and Russia will reach the stage that brings significant benefits to the Baltic countries, or b) risks related to Russia’s erratic behaviour on the international stage will decrease significantly. Both developments seem to be rather unlikely in short run

Deterrence Dilemma in Latvia and Estonia: Finding the Balance between External Military Solidarity and Territorial Defence

While potential threats from Russia and NATO collective defence commitments are similar for Latvia and Estonia, both countries have adopted different approaches in the balancing exercise between territorial defence and military solidarity. Notwithstanding their differences, both are by their nature fully non-aggressive – without room for pre-emptive initiatives, extra territoriality or asymmetrical tools. Given that in a case of a hypothetical large-scale conventional attack both countries would almost entirely have to rest on the allies, external military solidarity is essential. Until the Ukraine crisis, both offered more military solidarity towards their NATO allies than the latter offered to them. As the result of the Ukrainian crisis, allies became more military-solidary with the Baltic nations, especially having established the Enhanced Forward Presence, while Estonian and especially Latvian contributions to international missions and operations dropped. Therefore, it is suggested that both countries increase their efforts to the allied international endeavours.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Austeritätspolitik in Estland: die Reaktionen der Wähler auf die Genommene Sparmassnhamen Während der Finanz – und Wirtschaftskrise 2008-2011

During the latest global financial crisis, austerity as a concept has been described as the best possible and inevitable solution to achieve fiscal consolidation in Europe and in the euro zone. But even considering austerity as an economically rational measure, the politicians of most EU member states’ have introduced the austerity measures only to a limited extent or have chosen less stressful and politically less risky strategies. Estonian politicians, having earlier shock therapy experience from the years of re-independence, were among few European governments, who decided to adopt austerity measures with its economic and social consequences. Against all theoretical and rhetorical expectations they remained in power. The aim of the article is to analyze why austerity has not triggered negative political reaction of citizens, as expected in theoretical models as well feared by politicians, and was it caused by specific socio-cultural factors or well-planned strategy of governmen

EU governance and policies (EU-INTRO)

Ingliskeelse e-kursuse EU governance and policies (EU-INTRO) eesmärk on Euroopa Liidu sissejuhatava kursuse pakkumine inglise keeles ning seda nii Eestis olevatele välistudengitele kui ka baasteadmiste kursust inglise keeles läbida soovijatele

IS THE EUROPEAN MIGRANT CRISIS ANOTHER STAGE OF HYBRID WAR?

This article provides an overview of the roots of large-scale migration flows to the European Union (EU) during the past ten years. In addition, the article also explores the potential link between such migration flows and modern hybrid warfare, characterised by the coordination of various types of warfare (i.e. military and non-military means, conventional and non-conventional capabilities, state and non-state actors, etc.), all employed with an aim to cause instability and disorder. In the 2010s, the migration flows to EU countries increased significantly, particularly from the conflict areas in Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, as well as from Albania, Kosovo and Ukraine. The analysis focuses on the question of whether the increase in migration flows could be linked to the ongoing confrontation between Russia and the West. Specifically, the article focuses on two particular cases: Syria and Ukraine. The article explores the commonalities of the resulting migration flows to the EU and proposes policy recommendations for reducing the negative impact of such events in the future