Identification of Source Faults of Large Earthquakes in the Turkey‐Syria Border Region Between 1000 CE and the Present, and Their Relevance for the 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık Earthquake

The 6 February 2023, Mw 7.8 Pazarcık earthquake in the Turkey-Syria border region raises the question of whether such a large earthquake could have been foreseen, as well as what is the maximum possible magnitude (Mmax) of earthquakes on the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) system and on continental transform faults in general. To answer such questions, knowledge of past earthquakes and of their causative faults is necessary. Here, we integrate data from historical seismology, paleoseismology, archeoseismology, and remote sensing to identify the likely source faults of fourteen Mw ≥ 7 earthquakes between 1000 CE and the present in the region. We find that the 2023 Pazarcık earthquake could have been foreseen in terms of location (the EAF) and timing (an earthquake along this fault was if anything overdue), but not magnitude. We hypothesize that the maximum earthquake magnitude for the EAF is in fact 8.2, that is, a single end-to-end rupture of the entire fault, and that the 2023 Pazarcık earthquake did not reach Mmax by a fortuitous combination of circumstances. We conclude that such unusually large events are hard to model in terms of recurrence intervals, and that seismic hazard assessment along continental transforms cannot be done on individual fault systems but must include neighboring systems as well, because they are not kinematically independent at any time scale

The BpTRU automatic blood pressure monitor compared to 24 hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring in the assessment of blood pressure in patients with hypertension

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence suggests that ABPM more closely predicts target organ damage than does clinic measurement. Future guidelines may suggest ABPM as routine in the diagnosis and monitoring of hypertension. This would create difficulties as this test is expensive and often difficult to obtain. The purpose of this study is to determine the degree to which the BpTRU automatic blood pressure monitor predicts results on 24 hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM). METHODS: A quantitative analysis comparing blood pressure measured by the BpTRU device with the mean daytime blood pressure on 24 hour ABPM. The study was conducted by the Centre for Studies in Primary Care, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada on adult primary care patients who are enrolled in two randomized controlled trials on hypertension. The main outcomes were the mean of the blood pressures measured at the three most recent office visits, the initial measurement on the BpTRU-100, the mean of the five measurements on the BpTRU monitor, and the daytime average on 24 hour ABPM. RESULTS: The group mean of the three charted clinic measured blood pressures (150.8 (SD10.26) / 82.9 (SD 8.44)) was not statistically different from the group mean of the initial reading on BpTRU (150.0 (SD21.33) / 83.3 (SD12.00)). The group mean of the average of five BpTRU readings (140.0 (SD17.71) / 79.8 (SD 10.46)) was not statistically different from the 24 hour daytime mean on ABPM (141.5 (SD 13.25) / 79.7 (SD 7.79)). Within patients, BpTRU average correlated significantly better with daytime ambulatory pressure than did clinic averages (BpTRU r = 0.571, clinic r = 0.145). Based on assessment of sensitivity and specificity at different cut-points, it is suggested that the initial treatment target using the BpTRU be set at <135/85 mmHG, but achievement of target should be confirmed using 24 hour ABPM. CONCLUSION: The BpTRU average better predicts ABPM than does the average of the blood pressures recorded on the patient chart from the three most recent visits. The BpTRU automatic clinic blood pressure monitor should be used as an adjunct to ABPM to effectively diagnose and monitor hypertension

Thermally driven circulation in a region of complex topography: comparison of wind-profiling radar measurements and MM5 numerical predictions

The diurnal variation of regional wind patterns in the complex terrain of Central Italy was investigated for summer fair-weather conditions and winter time periods using a radar wind profiler. The profiler is located on a site where interaction between the complex topography and land-surface produces a variety of thermally and dynamically driven wind systems. The observational data set, collected for a period of one year, was used first to describe the diurnal evolution of thermal driven winds, second to validate the Mesoscale Model&amp;nbsp;5 (MM5) that is a three-dimensional numerical model. This type of analysis was focused on the near-surface wind observation, since thermally driven winds occur in the lower atmosphere. According to the valley wind theory expectations, the site &amp;ndash; located on the left sidewall of the valley (looking up valley) &amp;ndash; experiences a clockwise turning with time. Same characteristics in the behavior were established in both the experimental and numerical results. &lt;P style=&quot;line-height: 20px;&quot;&gt; Because the thermally driven flows can have some depth and may be influenced mainly by model errors, as a third step the analysis focuses on a subset of cases to explore four different MM5 Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterizations. The reason is to test how the results are sensitive to the selected PBL parameterization, and to identify the better parameterization if it is possible. For this purpose we analysed the MM5 output for the whole PBL levels. The chosen PBL parameterizations are: 1) Gayno-Seaman; 2) Medium-Range Forecast; 3) Mellor-Yamada scheme as used in the ETA model; and 4) Blackadar

THE INFLUENCE OF TRP53 IN THE DOSE RESPONSE OF RADIATIONINDUCED APOPTOSIS, DNA REPAIR AND GENOMIC STABILITY IN MURINE HAEMATOPOIETIC CELLS

Apoptotic and DNA damage endpoints are frequently used as surrogate markers of cancer risk, and have been well-studied in the Trp53+/- mouse model. We report the effect of differing Trp53 gene status on the dose response of ionizing radiation exposures (0.01- 2 Gy), with the unique perspective of determining if effects of gene status remain at extended time points. Here we report no difference in the dose response for radiationinduced DNA double-strand breaks in bone marrow and genomic instability (MN-RET levels) in peripheral blood, between wild-type (Trp53+/+) and heterozygous (Trp53+/-) mice. The dose response for Trp53+/+ mice showed higher initial levels of radiation-induced lymphocyte apoptosis relative to Trp53+/- between 0 and 1 Gy. Although this trend was observed up to 12 hours post-irradiation, both genotypes ultimately reached the same level of apoptosis at 14 hours, suggesting the importance of late-onset p53-independent apoptotic responses in this mouse model. Expected radiation-induced G1 cell cycle delay was observed in Trp53+/+ but not Trp53+/-. Although p53 has an important role in cancer risk, we have shown its influence on radiation dose response can be temporally variable. This research highlights the importance of caution when using haematopoietic endpoints as surrogates to extrapolate radiation-induced cancer risk estimation

Early Cambrian U-Pb zircon age and Hf-isotope data from the Guasayán pluton, Sierras Pampeanas, Argentina: implications for the northwestern boundary of the Pampean arc

An Early Cambrian pluton, known as the Guasayán pluton, has been identified in the central area of Sierra de Guasayán, northwestern Argentina. A U?Pb zircon Concordia age of 533 ± 4 Ma was obtained by LA-MC-ICP-MS and represents the first report of robustly dated Early Cambrian magmatism for the northwestern Sierras Pampeanas. The pluton was emplaced in low-grade metasedimentary rocks and its magmatic assemblage consists of K-feldspar (phenocrysts) + plagioclase + quartz + biotite, with zircon, apatite, ilmenite, magnetite and monazite as accessory minerals. Geochemically, the granitic rock is a metaluminous subalkaline felsic granodiorite with SiO2 = 69.24%, Na2O+ K2O = 7.08%, CaO = 2.45%, Na2O/ K2O = 0.71 and FeO/MgO = 3.58%. Rare earth element patterns show moderate slope (LaN/YbN = 8.05) with a slightly negative Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu* = 0.76). We report the first in situ Hf isotopes data (εHft = -0.12 to -4.76) from crystallized zircons in the Early Cambrian granites of the Sierras Pampeanas, helping to constrain the magma source and enabling comparison with other Pampean granites. The Guasayán pluton might provide a link between Early Cambrian magmatism of the central Sierras Pampeanas and that of the Eastern Cordillera, contributing to define the western boundary of the Pampean paleo-arc.Fil: Dahlquist, Juan Andrés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Tierra. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Tierra; ArgentinaFil: Verdecchia, Sebastián Osvaldo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Tierra. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Tierra; ArgentinaFil: Baldo, Edgardo Gaspar Agustín. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Tierra. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Tierra; ArgentinaFil: Basei, Miguel A. S.. Universidade Do Brasilia. Instituto de Geociencias; BrasilFil: Alasino, Pablo Horacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia Tecnológica de La Rioja. - Universidad Nacional de La Rioja. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia Tecnológica de La Rioja. - Universidad Nacional de Catamarca. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia Tecnológica de La Rioja. - Secretaría de Industria y Minería. Servicio Geológico Minero Argentino. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia Tecnológica de La Rioja. - Provincia de La Rioja. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia Tecnológica de La Rioja; ArgentinaFil: Uran, Gimena Mariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia Tecnológica de La Rioja. - Universidad Nacional de La Rioja. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia Tecnológica de La Rioja. - Universidad Nacional de Catamarca. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia Tecnológica de La Rioja. - Secretaría de Industria y Minería. Servicio Geológico Minero Argentino. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia Tecnológica de La Rioja. - Provincia de La Rioja. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia Tecnológica de La Rioja; ArgentinaFil: Rapela, Carlos Washington. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Centro de Investigaciones Geológicas. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Museo. Centro de Investigaciones Geológicas; ArgentinaFil: da Costa Campos Neto, Mario. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Zandomeni, Priscila Soledad. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Tierra. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Tierra; Argentin

Cancer incidence in eastern Libya: The first report from the Benghazi Cancer Registry, 2003

Cancer registration in Northern Africa is still limited and, until now, there have been no population-based data available for Libya. In this paper, we present the first data collected and analyzed by the Benghazi Cancer Registry. Registration was carried out by active data collection; the registry staff routinely visited all hospitals and pathological laboratories in eastern Libya (1.6 million inhabitants) and collected information from all death registration offices. A huge archive of prevalent cases was established before the 2003 data were collected. A total of 997 cases of primary cancers were registered among residents in 2003. The world age-standardized incidence rate for all sites combined (except non-melanoma skin) was 118 per 100,000 for men and 95 per 100,000 for women. The most frequently diagnosed malignancies in males were lung cancer (19%) and colorectal cancer (10%), followed by cancers of the head and neck (9%) and bladder (9%). Among females, they were breast cancer (26%), cancer of the colon and rectum (9%), uterus (7%) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (5%). Our study provides data on cancer incidence in eastern Libya, and confirms that cancer incidence is much lower than in western countries. Moreover, observed patterns indicate that the incidence of many cancers, including those of the lung, breast, colon, rectum and bladder is quite different from previous estimates based on the data available from the neighboring countries. (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc

Direct Evidence of a Slow‐Slip Transient Modulating the Spatiotemporal and Frequency‐Magnitude Earthquake Distribution: Insights From the Armutlu Peninsula, Northwestern Turkey

Earthquakes and slow‐slip events interact, however, detailed studies investigating their interplay are still limited. We generate the highest resolution microseismicity catalog to date for the northern Armutlu Peninsula in a ∼1‐year period to perform a detailed seismicity distribution analysis and correlate the results with a local, geodetically observed slow‐slip transient within the same period. Seismicity shows a transition of cluster‐type behavior from swarm‐like to burst‐like, accompanied by an increasing relative proportion of clustered (non‐Poissonian) relative to background (Poissonian) seismicity and gradually decreasing b‐value as the geodetically observed slow‐slip transient ends. The observed slow‐slip transient decay correlates with gradually increasing effective‐stress‐drop values. The observed correlation between the b‐value and geodetic transient highlights the influence of aseismic deformation on seismic deformation and the impact of slow‐slip transients on local seismic hazard

Determining the date of diagnosis – is it a simple matter? The impact of different approaches to dating diagnosis on estimates of delayed care for ovarian cancer in UK primary care

Background Studies of cancer incidence and early management will increasingly draw on routine electronic patient records. However, data may be incomplete or inaccurate. We developed a generalisable strategy for investigating presenting symptoms and delays in diagnosis using ovarian cancer as an example. Methods The General Practice Research Database was used to investigate the time between first report of symptom and diagnosis of 344 women diagnosed with ovarian cancer between 01/06/2002 and 31/05/2008. Effects of possible inaccuracies in dating of diagnosis on the frequencies and timing of the most commonly reported symptoms were investigated using four increasingly inclusive definitions of first diagnosis/suspicion: 1. "Definite diagnosis" 2. "Ambiguous diagnosis" 3. "First treatment or complication suggesting pre-existing diagnosis", 4 "First relevant test or referral". Results The most commonly coded symptoms before a definite diagnosis of ovarian cancer, were abdominal pain (41%), urogenital problems(25%), abdominal distension (24%), constipation/change in bowel habits (23%) with 70% of cases reporting at least one of these. The median time between first reporting each of these symptoms and diagnosis was 13, 21, 9.5 and 8.5 weeks respectively. 19% had a code for definitions 2 or 3 prior to definite diagnosis and 73% a code for 4. However, the proportion with symptoms and the delays were similar for all four definitions except 4, where the median delay was 8, 8, 3, 10 and 0 weeks respectively. Conclusion Symptoms recorded in the General Practice Research Database are similar to those reported in the literature, although their frequency is lower than in studies based on self-report. Generalisable strategies for exploring the impact of recording practice on date of diagnosis in electronic patient records are recommended, and studies which date diagnoses in GP records need to present sensitivity analyses based on investigation, referral and diagnosis data. Free text information may be essential in obtaining accurate estimates of incidence, and for accurate dating of diagnoses

The continental assembly of SW Gondwana (Ediacaran to Cambrian): a synthesis

SW Gondwana resulted from complex interplay between continental amalgamation and dispersal between ~ 650 and 490 Ma. The main cratons involved were Laurentia, Amazonia– MARA (Proterozoic Maz–Arequipa–Rio Apa, Casquet et al., 2012), Kalahari, Rio de la Plata (RPC), Congo and East Antarctica (Mawson block). Several collisional orogenic belts resulted, notably the East Africa–Antarctica, Brasiliano–Panafrican, Pampean–Saldania, and Ross– Delamerian orogens. East-Antarctica broke away from the western margin of Laurentia in Rodinia. After a long drift and counter-clockwise rotation (Dalziel, 2013) it collided with Congo and Kalahari to produce the southern part of the left-lateral transpressional East Africa–Antarctica orogen between 580 and 550 Ma, completing the amalgamation of East Gondwana. The Trans-Antarctic margin became an active one in the Ediacaran and subduction of the Pacific Ocean lithosphere occurred throughout the Paleozoic, forming a tract of the Terra Australis orogen. NW–SE directed compression in Late Cryogenian and Early Ediacaran times promoted closure of the Adamastor Ocean, resulting in the left-lateral transpressional Brasiliano–Pan African orogeny between 650 and 570 Ma. The Pampean orogenic belt to the west of the RPC resulted from right-lateral collision between Laurentia and its eastern extension MARA on the one hand and Kalahari–RPC on the other. Ocean opening started at ~ 630 Ma and subduction and further collision took place between 540 and 520 Ma, coeval with the northward drift of Laurentia (~ 540 Ma) away from MARA and the consequent formation of the proto-Andean margin of Gondwana. The margins of the intervening Puncoviscana ocean were covered by Laurentia-derived siliciclastic sediments and carbonates on the MARA side between 630 and ~ 540 Ma (Rapela et al, 2014; this symposium), and by the marine siliciclastic Puncoviscana Formation on the other. The latter formation, deposited between a 570 and ~530 Ma, received input from large alluvial fans descending from juvenile Mesoproterozoic and Neproterozoic sources (new Hf isotope evidence) largely located in the southern East Africa–Antarctica orogen. The Pampean orogen extended into the Saldania–Gariep orogen of southern South Africa (545–520 Ma) and was apparently discordant to the earlier Brasiliano–Pan African orogen. In late-Early to late Cambrian times the Pampean–Saldania realm evolved into a passive margin with siliciclastic platform sedimentation. The Pampean-Saldania realm was separated from the active Trans-Antarctic margin of East Antarctica by an inferred transform fault in Ediacaran to Cambrian times. Regional NW–SW shortening in the Ediacaran became N–S directed in the Cambrian, suggesting a major plate reorganization at this time.Peer reviewe