An analysis of water consumption in Europe’s energy production sector: The potential impact of the EU Energy Reference Scenario 2013 (LUISA configuration 2014)

This report presents the outcome of a study carried out in the frame of a wider assessment performed with the LUISA (Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment) modelling platform, configured in compliance with the “EU Energy, Transport and GHG emissions trends until 2050” (EU Energy Reference Scenario 2013). A new methodology has been implemented to estimate and map water requirements for energy production in Europe. In this study, the category of dedicated energy crops (ENCR) played an important role. These crops are expected to emerge as additional fuel sources within the EU28 by 2020. Water requirements in the remaining energy sectors have also been estimated in order to assess whether the introduction of these ENCR may, in any way, compete with the existing water requirements for energy production. More specifically, the study tackles the following questions: • Where and to what extent will there be potential competition with cooling water required for electricity generation related to the introduction of these crops? • How will these trends evolve over time? • How will the introduction of energy crops affect the overall water consumption trends in Europe? The analysis indicates that high irrigation requirements for ENCR are foreseen in France, Poland, Spain, eastern Germany, and regions of Italy and the UK. Substantial increases in requirements are seen for several regions from 2020 to 2030. ENCR are absent in Finland, Denmark, Greece, Malta, Cyprus and Croatia for the whole simulation period. Water consumption for cooling in electricity production has been quantified for the years 2020 and 2030 for 2 scenarios with a minimum and a maximum value. There is notable variation in overall water consumption, both over time and between the scenarios. There is an increase in cooling water consumption for most regions in both scenarios over the period 2020 to 2030, which is especially high in France for the minimum scenario. The values given by the two scenarios vary greatly due to the wide range in water consumption between the different cooling technologies assumed in the two cases. In some regions there is even up to a factor 10 difference in total consumption for cooling. As for any modelling exercise, the study presents a level of uncertainty due to the number of external models giving input and to the assumptions made. In the case of the cooling water mapping, a possible range of minimum/maximum values has been used to reflect the large variation due to the type of cooling system used by each power plant. For the energy crop water requirements we relied on estimates found in the literature. Nevertheless, the study presents an overall continental scale analysis of the potential impacts of the 2013 Energy Reference scenario, covering many of the involved sectors and provides the framework for further refinements and improvements.JRC.B.3-Territorial Developmen

Impact of shale gas development on water resources: A case study in Northern Poland

Shale gas is currently being explored in Europe as an alternative energy source to conventional oil and gas. There is, however, increasing concern about the potential environmental impacts of shale gas extraction by hydraulic fracturing (fracking). In this study we focussed on the potential impacts on regional water resources within the Baltic Basin in Poland, both in terms of quantity and quality. The future development of the shale play was modelled for the timeperiod 2015-2030 using the LUISA modelling framework. We formulated 2 scenarios which took into account the large range in technology and resource requirements, as well as 2 additional scenarios based on the current legislation and the potential restrictions which could be put in place. According to these scenarios, between 0.03 and 0.86% of the total water withdrawals for all sectors could be attributed to shale gas exploitation within the study area. A screening-level assessment of the potential impact of the chemicals commonly used in fracking was carried out and showed that due to their wide range of physicochemical properties, these chemicals may pose additional pressure on freshwater ecosystems. The legislation put in place also influenced the resulting environmental impacts of shale gas extraction. Especially important are the protection of vulnerable ground and surface water resources and the promotion of more water-efficient technologies.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Configuration of a reference scenario for the land use modelling platform

The definition of the Reference Scenario, given in the Energy Trends to 2030 publication by DG ENER (2009 update ), assumes full implementation of the Climate and Energy package. The legislation included within the Climate and Energy Package is reflective of the legally binding targets to ensure that the EU meets its climate and energy targets for 2020. This scenario assumes that national targets under the Renewables directive (2009/28/EC) and the GHG Effort-sharing decision (2009/406/EC) are achieved. The Reference scenario is one of three energy trends scenarios, used so far for the Energy 2050 Roadmap Impact assessment . The scenarios are derived with the PRIMES model by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens (E3MLab). The PRIMES model is key to the definition of the scenarios because of its energy focus. The Reference Scenario itself is derived within PRIMES and is supported by other specialised models downstream. The purpose of this document is to describe how the LUMP was configured in order to be consistent with the PRIMES and other upstream models within the integrated modelling chain, including the incorporation of the legally binding objectives, directives and guidelines. In order to be coherent with the IA accompanying the Communication on the Energy Roadmap 2050, new policies adopted up until March 2010 were implemented in so far as possible. The implementation has not yet been finalized and this document will be refreshed and re-distributed in its final form once the Reference Scenario has been fully configured.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Systematic analytical characterization of new psychoactive substances: A case study

AbstractNew psychoactive substances (NPS) are synthesized compounds that are not usually covered by European and/or international laws. With a slight alteration in the chemical structure of existing illegal substances registered in the European Union (EU), these NPS circumvent existing controls and are thus referred to as “legal highs”. They are becoming increasingly available and can easily be purchased through both the internet and other means (smart shops). Thus, it is essential that the identification of NPS keeps up with this rapidly evolving market.In this case study, the Belgian Customs authorities apprehended a parcel, originating from China, containing two samples, declared as being “white pigments”. For routine identification, the Belgian Customs Laboratory first analysed both samples by gas-chromatography mass-spectrometry and Fourier-Transform Infrared spectroscopy. The information obtained by these techniques is essential and can give an indication of the chemical structure of an unknown substance but not the complete identification of its structure. To bridge this gap, scientific and technical support is ensured by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) to the European Commission Directorate General for Taxation and Customs Unions (DG TAXUD) and the Customs Laboratory European Network (CLEN) through an Administrative Arrangement for fast recognition of NPS and identification of unknown chemicals. The samples were sent to the JRC for a complete characterization using advanced techniques and chemoinformatic tools.The aim of this study was also to encourage the development of a science-based policy driven approach on NPS.These samples were fully characterized and identified as 5F-AMB and PX-3 using 1H and 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), high-resolution tandem mass-spectrometry (HR-MS/MS) and Raman spectroscopy. A chemoinformatic platform was used to manage, unify analytical data from multiple techniques and instruments, and combine it with chemical and structural information

Current water resources in Europe and Africa - Matching water supply and water demand

Ensuring good quality water in sufficient quantities for all legitimate uses is a major policy aim of the European Commission, and the main aim of the Blueprint to Safeguard Europe's Water, which will be launched in 2012. The Blueprint is the EU policy response to emerging challenges in the field of water. It is within this policy framework that JRC carries out research on hydrological simulation modelling, aiming to provide scientific assessments of general available water resources and floods, droughts and water scarcity. The main aim of the work is to assess current and future water availability versus current and future water demands from different economic sectors. Before future challenges can be addressed, a thorough analysis of current water resources is needed. The scope of this study is an analysis of current water resources in Europe and Africa, and matching water supply and water demand from various sectors. Several attempts already have been made to assess European, African and global water resources. Recently, Haddeland et al. (2011) produced a multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance at 0.5o spatial resolution. This has been achieved within the Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA), developed in the context of the EU-funded WATCH project (https://gateway.ceh.ac.uk ). Within another EU-funded project GLOWASIS (Global Water Scarcity Information System), Utrecht University and Deltares develop a global water scarcity map also at 0.5o spatial resolution, to be finished Dec 2012 (http://glowasis.eu ). First results are published in Van Beek et al (2011). JRC is partner in this project to benchmark the global product with the higher resolution European and African assessments. A further study was conducted by Hoekstra and Mekonnen (2011), assessing global water scarcity for the world’s major river basins. Other available information on global water resources are available from: • FAO, Aquastat portal http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/globalmaps/index.stm • UNEP: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/freshwater-availability-groundwater-and-river-flow • Cleaningwater: http://cleaningwater.se/whats-new/geographical-distribution • IWMI Institute: http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/WAtlas/Default.aspx • World Resources Institute: http://earthtrends.wri.org/maps_spatial/maps_detail_static.php?map_select=265&theme=4 • Monde diplomatique: http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/cartes/disponibiliteeau • GRID-Arendal (Africa): http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/africa/ • EEA (Europe): http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/annual-water-availability-per-capita-by-country-2001 In general however, the analysis done in the products described above is done at national scales, at relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5o), and using water demand data from the year 2000 or before, because more recent data are not yet available. The scope of the study presented here, is to carry out an higher spatial resolution analysis for Europe (5 km ~ 0.05o) and Africa (0.1o), using a daily timescale for modelling, and using for Europe new JRC analysis of water uses for irrigation, livestock, industry and energy, and domestic purposes. The analysis is carried out using the JRC LISFLOOD hydrological simulation model, supported by several other available models (EPIC, LUMP).JRC.H-Institute for Environment and Sustainability (Ispra

Vulnerability mapping for sustainable hazard mitigation in the city of Bukavu, South Kivu, DRCongo

This study presents the natural as well as human factors which are responsible for the environmental degradation and the increasing vulnerability of the population of Bukavu to natural hazards. The city of Bukavu is located within the Albertine rift, a region which is prone to seismic activity. Moreover, the accentuated topography, the lithology and climate regime contribute considerably to the occurrence of both geomorphologic and hydroclimatic hazards. Over the last few decades the city has evolved at an exponential pace, without appropriate urban planning. Between 1970 and 2008 the population increased more than four times within a constant area of about 60 km2. The related change in land use has drastically amplified both the frequency and impact of natural hazards in the city. The zones at high risk of mass movements and flooding have been identified and mapped using remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS). The changes in land use and population density were also studied, and we propose several approaches to raise the resilience of the population in order to reduce the impact of natural hazards on the city

An assessment of dedicated energy crops in Europe under the EU Energy Reference Scenario 2013. Application of the LUISA modelling platform - Updated Configuration 2014

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of dedicated energy crops (ENCR) performed with the LUISA (Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment) modelling platform across Europe between 2020 and 2050. LUISA is configured in compliance with the “EU Energy, Transport and GHG emissions trends until 2050” document in order to ensure that the EU meet its climate and energy targets up to 2050 (EU Reference Scenario 2013, updated LUISA configuration 2014). The spatial modelling of ENCR in LUISA requires determining a set of elements such as the land demand, availability and suitability of the land, and other land categories for the ENCR cultivation. Thus, the assessment is focused on the following steps: 1) Land accounts and dominant land use/cover flows for the expansion of energy crops at European scale, 2) A suitability analysis of the land dedicated to these crops based on suitability maps, 3) Recuperation of degraded and contaminated lands for energy purpose, 4) A detailed regional analysis per each Member State (factsheets) with a summary of the main important findings, and 5) Evaluation of energy crops’ impacts on a selection of environmental indicators (provision of ecosystem services). In LUISA, the displacement and cultivation of crops solely dedicated to energy production takes place on a specific land-use class named ‘energy crop’ (ENCR), which competes in particular with the demand for others land-uses, such as for food, feed and forest. The amount of ENCR reaches about 13,549 kha in 2050 that represents, on average, 3.6% of Europe’s total available land. This expansion occurs mainly at expenses of land for food and feed (90%). Forest and natural land (9% and 1%,) represent respectively the second and third land flows towards ENCR among total land-use changes (with these flows represented respectively 9 and 1% of all land use changes). As result of this land competition, there is an increasing shift of food and feed crops towards low quality land, due not only to the ENCR expansion but also to the growth of residential and economic-driven land uses. It should also be noted that intensive agriculture practices for ENCR production might have some negative impacts on soil, water, biodiversity, amongst others. Owing to this potential impacts, the analysis performed on the supply of a set of ecosystem services identifies some services more sensitive than others to ENCR growth. In particular, pollination potential, habitat quality for birds and also the Green-Infrastructure network are expected to decrease due to ENCR growth, while patterns for recreational opportunities and water retention services are less evident.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

European landscape changes between 2010 and 2050 under the EU Reference Scenario: EU Reference Scenario 2013 LUISA platform – Updated Configuration 2014

The ‘Land-Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment’ modelling platform (LUISA) is primarily used for the ex-ante evaluation of EC policies that have a direct or indirect territorial impact. It is based on the concept of ‘land function’ for cross-sector integration and for the representation of complex system dynamics. Beyond a traditional land use model, LUISA adopts a new approach towards activity-based modelling based upon the endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities. LUISA has been applied to address the competition for land arising from the energy, transport and climate dimensions of EU policies and configured according to the EU Energy Reference scenario 2013 (updated configuration 2014) to produce high-resolution land use/cover projections up to 2050 and a related series of thematic indicators. This report describes the stocks and the main land cover/use flows (LCF) taking place in Europe in the period 2010-2050 and the processes that cause those flows, thus providing insight on how the European landscape might change if the future happens according to a reference scenario consistent with settings (economic and demographic in particular) and policies in place in 2013 (hence including in particular the 2020 renewable energy targets). Main findings: • The extent of the land for housing and leisure (urban) and industrial/commercial and services (ICS) increases, while the area of agriculture, forest and natural land decreases; • Urban and industrial land are expected to represent the highest share of net formation as % of the initial year (2010); • Energy crops appear in the model as of 2020 and are expected to reach 135,479 km2 across Europe in 2050; • Energy crops become the second most important land transformation in Europe (17%); approximately 90 % of the land consumed for energy purposes comes from land for food and feed, followed by forest and natural land; • While a large proportion of land dedicated to food and feed crops is expected to be converted into dedicated energy crops, the net land losses are very small as a results of the conversion from forest land into food and feed production; • New forest and natural land compensate in some way for quantity of losses or consumption by other uses; however the high value of the turnover indicator, reveal that those land-uses are unstable and vulnerable to the fast changes driven by economic development and climate changes, thus compromising the biodiversity and habitat conservation status; • The conversion between farming types represent 35% over the total land changes between 2010 and 2050; The results show the loss of natural and agricultural land because of ever-ongoing urbanisation and industrialization processes. The loss of natural and agricultural land for food production is even larger because of the advent of energy crops production incited by shifts in the European Energy supply system.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Direct and Indirect Land Use Impacts of the EU Cohesion Policy. Assessment with the Land Use Modelling Platform

The Cohesion policy for the programming period 2014-2020 is analyzed in terms of its likely land use and environmental impacts using the Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP). This report describes in detail the process and the methodology by which the ex-ante impact assessment was made, and presents the results for Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, and Poland. The modelling approach can provide insights on the trade-offs between economic growth, investment policies (such as the Cohesion policy), and land use and the environment. In addition, ways to mitigate potentially negative land use and environmental impacts were explored. The future development of the LUMP is discussed in view of planned future work.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen