State estimation for temporal point processes

This paper is concerned with combined inference for point processes on the real line observed in a broken interval. For such processes, the classic history-based approach cannot be used. Instead, we adapt tools from sequential spatial point processes. For a range of models, the marginal and conditional distributions are derived. We discuss likelihood based inference as well as parameter estimation using the method of moments, conduct a simulation study for the important special case of renewal processes and analyse a data set collected by Diggle and Hawtin

Non-parametric indices of dependence between components for inhomogeneous multivariate random measures and marked sets

We propose new summary statistics to quantify the association between the components in coverage-reweighted moment stationary multivariate random sets and measures. They are defined in terms of the coverage-reweighted cumulant densities and extend classic functional statistics for stationary random closed sets. We study the relations between these statistics and evaluate them explicitly for a range of models. Unbiased estimators are given for all statistics and applied to simulated examples.Comment: Added examples in version

A spectral mean for point sampled closed curves

We propose a spectral mean for closed curves described by sample points on its boundary subject to mis-alignment and noise. First, we ignore mis-alignment and derive maximum likelihood estimators of the model and noise parameters in the Fourier domain. We estimate the unknown curve by back-transformation and derive the distribution of the integrated squared error. Then, we model mis-alignment by means of a shifted parametric diffeomorphism and minimise a suitable objective function simultaneously over the unknown curve and the mis-alignment parameters. Finally, the method is illustrated on simulated data as well as on photographs of Lake Tana taken by astronauts during a Shuttle mission

Notes on the Markowitz portfolio selection method

Portfolio Investment;management science

A J-function for inhomogeneous spatio-temporal point processes

We propose a new summary statistic for inhomogeneous intensity-reweighted moment stationary spatio-temporal point processes. The statistic is defined through the n-point correlation functions of the point process and it generalises the J-function when stationarity is assumed. We show that our statistic can be represented in terms of the generating functional and that it is related to the inhomogeneous K-function. We further discuss its explicit form under some specific model assumptions and derive a ratio-unbiased estimator. We finally illustrate the use of our statistic on simulated data

Clustering methods based on variational analysis in the space of measures

We formulate clustering as a minimisation problem in the space of measures by modelling the cluster centres as a Poisson process with unknown intensity function.We derive a Ward-type clustering criterion which, under the Poisson assumption, can easily be evaluated explicitly in terms of the intensity function. We show that asymptotically, i.e. for increasing total intensity, the optimal intensity function is proportional to a dimension-dependent power of the density of the observations. For fixed finite total intensity, no explicit solution seems available. However, the Ward-type criterion to be minimised is convex in the intensity function, so that the steepest descent method of Molchanov and Zuyev (2001) can be used to approximate the global minimum. It turns out that the gradient is similar in form to the functional to be optimised. If we discretise over a grid, the steepest descent algorithm at each iteration step increases the current intensity function at those points where the gradient is minimal at the expense of regions with a large gradient value. The algorithm is applied to a toy one-dimensional example, a simulation from a popular spatial cluster model and a real-life dataset from Strauss (1975) concerning the positions of redwood seedlings. Finally, we discuss the relative merits of our approach compared to classical hierarchical and partition clustering techniques as well as to modern model based clustering methods using Markov point processes and mixture distributions

Summary statistics for inhomogeneous marked point processes

We propose new summary statistics for intensity-reweighted moment stationary marked point processes with particular emphasis on discrete marks. The new statistics are based on the n-point correlation functions and reduce to cross J- and D-functions when stationarity holds. We explore the relationships between the various functions and discuss their explicit forms under specific model assumptions. We derive ratio-unbiased minus sampling estimators for our statistics and illustrate their use on a data set of wildfires

Disentangling scale approaches in governance research: comparing monocentric, multilevel, and adaptive governance

The question of how to govern the multiscale problems in today’s network society is an important topic in the fields of public administration, political sciences, and environmental sciences. How scales are defined, studied, and dealt with varies substantially within and across these fields. This paper aims to reduce the existing conceptual confusion regarding scales by disentangling three representative approaches that address both governance and scaling: monocentric governance, multilevel governance, and adaptive governance. It does so by analyzing the differences in (1) underlying views on governing, (2) assumptions about scales, (3) dominant problem definitions regarding scales, and (4) preferred responses for dealing with multiple scales. Finally, this paper identifies research opportunities within and across these approaches