Water Requirements for Irrigation in the European Union

Agriculture is an essential driving force in the management of water use. Especially in Southern European countries, irrigation is an essential element of agricultural production and agricultural water use has a substantial share in total water use (exceeding 50%). The presented work contributes to the assessment of impacts of irrigated agriculture on water resources at European scale. We developed a modeling approach to estimate irrigation water requirements and regional irrigation water demands in the EU at high spatial resolution. The modeling approach was applied for a first assessment of irrigation water requirements. A prerequisite of the analysis was the compilation of a European Irrigation Map (EIM), providing information on the distribution of irrigated areas in EU25 for modeling studies. The EIM complements the underlying European land use map (Grizzetti et al. 2007), combining FSS statistics on irrigated area and crop area and information from the Global Map of Irrigated Areas (Siebert et al. 2005). The map was used to derive irrigated areas (as total and per crop) for spatial modeling units. To estimate irrigation water requirements we applied the soil water and crop growth model EPIC that was implemented in a European agricultural modeling system EAGLE and calculates water and nutrient flows at a spatial resolution of 10x10 km raster cells. Different irrigation strategies were defined to analyze the effect of application rates and irrigation intervals on water requirement. The final results were given per raster cell and per crop, based on the most efficient irrigation strategy (maintaining optimum yield with lowest irrigation). We show that allowing higher soil water deficit does not automatically lead to non-tolerable reduction of crop yields and soil moisture. Irrigation requirements (irrigation per unit irrigated area) in Europe range up to 2368 mm/yr in average per cell. Water demands (volume for defined spatial units) are calculated subsequently based on the irrigated area within each cell. Resulting water abstractions were calculated using rules-of-thumb values of irrigation efficiency and conveyance efficiency. A comparison with reported national statistics on water abstraction data showed considerable discrepancies for many countries, indicating not only model uncertainties, but also illustrating shortcomings of national statistics. Such a comparison is a useful tool to check the consistency of both, model assumptions and underlying statistical information. The results provide a spatial overview on irrigation water demands in Europe and allow analysis of agricultural pressures on water resources in Europe at a considerable high spatial resolution. Being based on a single methodology applied to official data sources, the estimation supports inter-comparison of national statistics, which are based on different methodological approaches. This pilot assessment was based on irrigation and land use statistics from the years 2000 and 2003. The methodology was designed for application in an operational context, allowing future updates of the assessment corresponding to statistical data. The approach can therefore principally be applied and extended to track ongoing development or run future scenarios of land use and climate. Future improvements will rely on the development of the underlying statistical information and on the incorporation and improvement of crop specific information.JRC.H.5-Rural, water and ecosystem resource

Brief on agricultural biomass production

This brief on agricultural biomass is one out of a series of briefs prepared by the Knowledge Centre for Bioeconomy which intend to provide independent evidence for EU policy in this field. The following are the key results: 1. The total annual agricultural biomass production in the European Union is estimated at 956 million tonnes (Mt) per year. 54% are primary products (grains, fruits, roots, tubers, etc.), i.e. economic production, and 46% are residues, e.g. leaves and stems. 2. Cereals account for more than half of the total EU economic production of agricultural biomass and almost three quarters of total residue production in the EU. 3. About 75% of the EU-282 economic and residue production comes from seven Member States: FR, DE, IT, PL, ES, RO and the UK. 4. Uncertainties associated with residue production estimates are relatively large. 5. In order to quantify the actual availability of residues for competitive uses, environmental sustainability requirements (e.g. soil conservation, biodiversity and the full range of ecosystem services in the agricultural sector) need to be accounted for.JRC.D.1-Bio-econom

Biochar Application to Soils - A Critical Scientific Review of Effects on Soil Properties, Processes and Functions

Biochar application to soils is being considered as a means to sequester carbon (C) while concurrently improving soil functions. This report reviews the evidence for potential effects of biochar incorporation into soils on soil properties and processes with implications for agronomic and environmental functions. Further to this, while beyond the main scope of this report, an overview of the main environmental and occupational health issues associated to biochar production and handling, and the socio-economic implications is given. Extrapolation of reported results must be done with caution, owing to the relatively small number of studies reported in the primary literature, when compared to possible instigation of biochar application to soils on a national or European scale . To try and bridge the gap between small scale, controlled experiments and large scale implementation of biochar application to a range of soil types across a range of different climates, a statistical meta-analysis was undertaken. A full search of the scientific literature led to a compilation of studies used for a meta-analysis of the effects of biochar application to soils and plant productivity. Results showed a small overall, but statistically significant, positive effect of biochar application to soils on plant productivity. The greatest positive effects were seen on acidic free-draining soils with other soil types, specifically calcarosols showing no significant effect (either positive or negative). This suggests that one of the main mechanisms behind the reported positive effects of biochar application to soils on plant productivity may be a liming effect although further research is needed to confirm this hypothesis. There is currently a lack of data concerning the effects of biochar application to soils on other soil functions. This means that although these are qualitatively and comprehensively discussed in this report, a robust meta-analysis on such effects is not possible currently. Effects that are expected (both positive and negative) include nutrient leaching to ground/surface waters, soil water retention, soil water repellency, N2O and CH4 emissions, albedo and soil biological activity although insufficient data are available at present to accurately quantify any of these effects or to report a consensus on their direction (either positive or negative). Preliminary evidence has also been reported concerning a possible priming effect whereby accelerated decomposition of soil organic matter occurs upon biochar addition to soil. This has the potential to both harm crop productivity in the long term due to loss of soil organic matter, as well as releasing more CO2 into the atmosphere as increased quantities of soil organic matter is respired from the soil. This is an area which requires urgent further research and is discussed in more detail in this report.JRC.DDG.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

Time-varying impact of climate on maize and wheat yields in France since 1900

Climate services that can anticipate crop yields can potentially increase the resilience of food security in the face of climate change. These services are based on our understanding of how crop yield anomalies are related to climate anomalies, yet the share of global crop yield variability explained directly by climate factors is largely variable between regions. In Europe, France has been a major crop producer since the beginning of the 20th Century. Process based and statistical approaches to model crop yields driven by observed climate have proven highly challenging in France. This is especially due to a high regional diversity in climate but also due to environmental and agro-management factors. An additional level of uncertainty is introduced if these models are driven by seasonal-to-decadal surface climate predictions due to their low performances before the harvesting months of both wheat and maize in western Europe. On the other hand, large scale circulation patterns can possibly be better predicted than the regional surface climate, which offers the opportunity to rely on large scale circulation patterns as an alternative to local climate variables. This method assumes a certain degree of stationarity in the relationships between large scale patterns, surface climate variables, and crop yield anomalies. However, such an assumption was never tested, because of the lack of suitable long-term data. This study uses a unique dataset of subnational crop yields in France covering more than a century. By calibrating and comparing statistical models linking large scale circulation patterns and observed surface climate variables to crop yield anomalies, we can demonstrate that the relationship between large scale patterns and surface variables relevant for crop yields is not stationary. Therefore, large scale circulation pattern based crop yield forecasting methods can be adopted for seasonal predictions provided that regression parameters are constantly updated. However, the statistical crop yield models based on large-scale circulation patterns are not suitable for decadal predictions or climate change impact assessments at even longer time-scales

The INCH-trial:a multicenter randomized controlled trial comparing short- and long-term outcomes of open and laparoscopic surgery for incisional hernia repair

Background: Laparoscopic incisional hernia repair is increasingly performed worldwide and expected to be superior to conventional open repair regarding hospital stay and quality of life (QoL). The INCisional Hernia-Trial was designed to test this hypothesis. Methods: A multicenter parallel randomized controlled open-label trial with a superiority design was conducted in six hospitals in the Netherlands. Patients with primary or recurrent incisional hernias were randomized by computer-guided block-randomization to undergo either conventional open or laparoscopic repair. Primary endpoint was postoperative length of hospital stay in days. Secondary endpoints included QoL, complications, and recurrences. Patients were followed up for at least 5 years. Results: Hundred-and-two patients were recruited and randomized. In total, 88 patients underwent surgery and were included in the intention-to-treat analysis (44 in the open group, 44 in the laparoscopic group). Mean age was 59.5 years, gender division was equal, and BMI was 28.8 kg/m. The trial was concluded early for futility after an unplanned interim analysis, which showed that the hypothesis needed to be rejected. There was no difference in primary outcome: length of hospital stay was 3 (range 1–36) days in the open group and 3 (range 1–12) days in the laparoscopic group (p = 0.481). There were no significant between-group differences in QoL questionnaires on the short and long term. Satisfaction was impaired in the open group. Overall recurrence rate was 19%, of which 16% in the open and 23% in the laparoscopic group (p = 0.25) at a mean follow-up of 6.6 years. Conclusions: In a randomized controlled trial, short- and long-term outcomes after laparoscopic incisional hernia repair were not superior to open surgery. The persisting high recurrence rates, reduced QoL, and suboptimal satisfaction warrant the need for patient’s expectation management in the preoperative process and individualized surgical management. Trial registration: Netherlands Trial Register NTR2808.</p

Machine learning for regional crop yield forecasting in Europe

Crop yield forecasting at national level relies on predictors aggregated from smaller spatial units to larger ones according to harvested crop areas. Such crop areas come from land cover maps or reported statistics, both of which can have errors and uncertainties. Sub-national or regional crop yield forecasting minimizes the propagation of these errors to some extent. In addition, regional forecasts provide added value and insights to stakeholders on regional differences within a country, which would otherwise compensate each other at national level. We propose a crop yield forecasting approach for multiple spatial levels based on regional crop yield forecasts from machine learning. Machine learning, with its data-driven approach, can leverage larger data sizes and capture nonlinear relationships between predictors and yield at regional level. We designed a generic machine learning workflow to demonstrate the benefits of regional crop yield forecasting in Europe. To evaluate the quality and usefulness of regional forecasts, we predicted crop yields for 35 case studies, including nine countries that are major producers of six crops (soft wheat, spring barley, sunflower, grain maize, sugar beets and potatoes). Machine learning models at regional level had lower normalized root mean squared errors (NRMSE) and uncertainty than a linear trend model, with Wilcoxon p-values of 3e-7 and 2e-7 for 60 days before harvest and end of season respectively. Similarly, regional machine learning forecasts aggregated to national level had lower NRMSEs than forecasts from an operational system in 18 out of 35 cases 60 days before harvest, with a Wilcoxon p-value of 0.95 indicating similar performance. Our models have room for improvement, especially during extreme years. Nevertheless, regional crop yield forecasts from machine learning and aggregated national forecasts provide a consistent forecasting method across spatial levels and insights from regional differences to support important policy decisions

MARS Bulletin Vol.22 No 10 (2014) - High summer crop yields at EU-28 level

Crop Monitoring in EuropeJRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource

MARS Bulletin Vol.22 No 12 (2014) - Weakly hardened crops in western and central Europe

Crop Monitoring in EuropeJRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource

MARS Bulletin Vol.22 No 11 (2014) - Predominantly favourable sowing conditions despite some delays

Crop Monitoring in EuropeJRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource