A Hedged Monte Carlo Approach to Real Option Pricing

In this work we are concerned with valuing optionalities associated to invest or to delay investment in a project when the available information provided to the manager comes from simulated data of cash flows under historical (or subjective) measure in a possibly incomplete market. Our approach is suitable also to incorporating subjective views from management or market experts and to stochastic investment costs. It is based on the Hedged Monte Carlo strategy proposed by Potters et al (2001) where options are priced simultaneously with the determination of the corresponding hedging. The approach is particularly well-suited to the evaluation of commodity related projects whereby the availability of pricing formulae is very rare, the scenario simulations are usually available only in the historical measure, and the cash flows can be highly nonlinear functions of the prices.Comment: 25 pages, 14 figure

Cognitive‐behavioral therapy in the time of coronavirus : clinician tips for working with eating disorders via telehealth when face‐to‐face meetings are not possible

Objective The coronavirus pandemic has led to a dramatically different way of working for many therapists working with eating disorders, where telehealth has suddenly become the norm. However, many clinicians feel ill equipped to deliver therapy via telehealth, while adhering to evidence‐based interventions. This article draws together clinician experiences of the issues that should be attended to, and how to address them within a telehealth framework. Method Seventy clinical colleagues of the authors were emailed and invited to share their concerns online about how to deliver cognitive‐behavioral therapy for eating disorders (CBT‐ED) via telehealth, and how to adapt clinical practice to deal with the problems that they and others had encountered. After 96 hr, all the suggestions that had been shared by 22 clinicians were collated to provide timely advice for other clinicians. Results A range of themes emerged from the online discussion. A large proportion were general clinical and practical domains (patient and therapist concerns about telehealth; technical issues in implementing telehealth; changes in the environment), but there were also specific considerations and clinical recommendations about the delivery of CBT‐ED methods. Discussion Through interaction and sharing of ideas, clinicians across the world produced a substantial number of recommendations about how to use telehealth to work with people with eating disorders while remaining on track with evidence‐based practice. These are shared to assist clinicians over the period of changed practice

Transmission of Methicillin‐Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Infection Through Solid Organ Transplantation: Confirmation Via Whole Genome Sequencing

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/109324/1/ajt12898.pd

Transmission Electron Microscopy Reveals Distinct Macrophage- and Tick Cell-Specific Morphological Stages of Ehrlichia chaffeensis

Background: Ehrlichia chaffeensis is an emerging tick-borne rickettsial pathogen responsible for human monocytic ehrlichiosis. Despite the induction of an active host immune response, the pathogen has evolved to persist in its vertebrate and tick hosts. Understanding how the organism progresses in tick and vertebrate host cells is critical in identifying effective strategies to block the pathogen transmission. Our recent molecular and proteomic studies revealed differences in numerous expressed proteins of the organism during its growth in different host environments. Methodology/Principal Findings: Transmission electron microscopy analysis was performed to assess morphological changes in the bacterium within macrophages and tick cells. The stages of pathogen progression observed included the attachment of the organism to the host cells, its engulfment and replication within a morulae by binary fission and release of the organisms from infected host cells by complete host cell lysis or by exocytosis. E. chaffeensis grown in tick cells was highly pleomorphic and appears to replicate by both binary fission and filamentous type cell divisions. The presence of Ehrlichia-like inclusions was also observed within the nucleus of both macrophages and tick cells. This observation was confirmed by confocal microscopy and immunoblot analysis. Conclusions/Significance: Morphological differences in the pathogen’s progression, replication, and processing within macrophages and tick cells provide further evidence that E. chaffeensis employs unique host-cell specific strategies in support of adaptation to vertebrate and tick cell environments

Linking Scottish vital event records using family groups

Funding: This work was supported by ESRC Grants ES/K00574X/2 “Digitising Scotland” and ES/L007487/1 “Administrative Data Research Centre – Scotland.”The reconstitution of populations through linkage of historical records is a powerful approach to generate longitudinal historical microdata resources of interest to researchers in various fields. Here we consider automated linking of the vital events recorded in the civil registers of birth, death and marriage compiled in Scotland, to bring together the various records associated with the demographic events in the life course of each individual in the population. From the histories, the genealogical structure of the population can then be built up. Rather than apply standard linkage techniques to link the individuals on the available certificates, we explore an alternative approach, inspired by the family reconstitution techniques adopted by historical demographers, in which the births of siblings are first linked to form family groups, after which intergenerational links between families can be established. We report a small-scale evaluation of this approach, using two district-level data sets from Scotland in the late nineteenth century, for which sibling links have already been created by demographers. We show that quality measures of up to 83% can be achieved on these data sets (using F-Measure, a combination of precision and recall). In the future, we intend to compare the results with a standard linkage approach and to investigate how these various methods may be used in a project which aims to link the entire Scottish population from 1856 to 1973.PostprintPeer reviewe

Towards the clinical implementation of pharmacogenetics in bipolar disorder.

BackgroundBipolar disorder (BD) is a psychiatric illness defined by pathological alterations between the mood states of mania and depression, causing disability, imposing healthcare costs and elevating the risk of suicide. Although effective treatments for BD exist, variability in outcomes leads to a large number of treatment failures, typically followed by a trial and error process of medication switches that can take years. Pharmacogenetic testing (PGT), by tailoring drug choice to an individual, may personalize and expedite treatment so as to identify more rapidly medications well suited to individual BD patients.DiscussionA number of associations have been made in BD between medication response phenotypes and specific genetic markers. However, to date clinical adoption of PGT has been limited, often citing questions that must be answered before it can be widely utilized. These include: What are the requirements of supporting evidence? How large is a clinically relevant effect? What degree of specificity and sensitivity are required? Does a given marker influence decision making and have clinical utility? In many cases, the answers to these questions remain unknown, and ultimately, the question of whether PGT is valid and useful must be determined empirically. Towards this aim, we have reviewed the literature and selected drug-genotype associations with the strongest evidence for utility in BD.SummaryBased upon these findings, we propose a preliminary panel for use in PGT, and a method by which the results of a PGT panel can be integrated for clinical interpretation. Finally, we argue that based on the sufficiency of accumulated evidence, PGT implementation studies are now warranted. We propose and discuss the design for a randomized clinical trial to test the use of PGT in the treatment of BD