An Inflation Forecasting Model for the Euro Area.

With the European economic integration, the understanding of inflation and inflationary pressures requires to analyse both the national level and the whole Euro area level. This is true in particular for the inflation forecasts that are carried out within the Eurosystem and published four times a year in the ECB Monthly Bulletin. For that purpose, the Banque de France is currently building tools for the Euro area in addition to those already in use for France. The present study puts forward a simple model of short-term developments (one year ahead) in inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) of the Euro area. This model does not take into account the feed-back effect of prices on activity, which should be considered in order to analyse medium-term price developments. It could hence be improved along these lines in the future. The model includes seven equations, explaining the total HICP of the Euro area and some of its sector-based sub-indexes (services, manufacturing sector, unprocessed food, processed food, energy and underlying inflation, defined as HICP inflation excluding unprocessed food and energy prices). It uses exogenous variables such as unit labour cost, import deflator, indicators of tightening in the labour market, or in the goods market, and indirect tax indicators. We have favoured an empirical approach rather than a strict compliance with theoretical models, paying particularly attention to the fit of the equations to the data. However, this model is able to provide relevant economic interpretations of recent price developments. Finally, we assess the forecasting performance of the model in traditional in-sample and out-of-sample rolling event evaluations. To do so, the forecasts were compared to the ones obtained from simple autoregressive equations, which are also commonly used to forecast short-term price developments. On the whole, the model provides more accurate forecasts than those provided by the autoregressive model, and a sector-based disaggregated approach outperforms a single equation to forecast total HICP. Part of this result may come from dummy variables that correspond to well identified shocks that improve both the econometric characteristics and forecast performance of the equations of our model.Inflation ; Economic Modelling ; Forecast.

Maquette d’inflation zone euro.

Selon la maquette d’inflation pour la zone euro développée à la Banque de France, la reprise de l’inflation sous-jacente en 2007 est la conséquence de tensions cycliques et de la vive progression passée des prix d’importations.Inflation, modélisation économique, prévision.

Prospecting environmental mycobacteria: combined molecular approaches reveal unprecedented diversity

Background: Environmental mycobacteria (EM) include species commonly found in various terrestrial and aquatic environments, encompassing animal and human pathogens in addition to saprophytes. Approximately 150 EM species can be separated into fast and slow growers based on sequence and copy number differences of their 16S rRNA genes. Cultivation methods are not appropriate for diversity studies; few studies have investigated EM diversity in soil despite their importance as potential reservoirs of pathogens and their hypothesized role in masking or blocking M. bovis BCG vaccine. Methods: We report here the development, optimization and validation of molecular assays targeting the 16S rRNA gene to assess diversity and prevalence of fast and slow growing EM in representative soils from semi tropical and temperate areas. New primer sets were designed also to target uniquely slow growing mycobacteria and used with PCR-DGGE, tag-encoded Titanium amplicon pyrosequencing and quantitative PCR. Results: PCR-DGGE and pyrosequencing provided a consensus of EM diversity; for example, a high abundance of pyrosequencing reads and DGGE bands corresponded to M. moriokaense, M. colombiense and M. riyadhense. As expected pyrosequencing provided more comprehensive information; additional prevalent species included M. chlorophenolicum, M. neglectum, M. gordonae, M. aemonae. Prevalence of the total Mycobacterium genus in the soil samples ranged from 2.3×107 to 2.7×108 gene targets g−1; slow growers prevalence from 2.9×105 to 1.2×107 cells g−1. Conclusions: This combined molecular approach enabled an unprecedented qualitative and quantitative assessment of EM across soil samples. Good concordance was found between methods and the bioinformatics analysis was validated by random resampling. Sequences from most pathogenic groups associated with slow growth were identified in extenso in all soils tested with a specific assay, allowing to unmask them from the Mycobacterium whole genus, in which, as minority members, they would have remained undetected

Isotopic investigations of Chinese ceramics

This chapter provides insights into Chinese ceramic technologies of both bodies and glazes as well as provenance by using isotopes applied to a number of case studies. The use of Sr isotopes to investigate Chinese high-fired Celadon wares and blue-and-white Jingdezhen porcelain (Jiangxi province) has revealed a clear distinction associated with the fluxes used in the glazes: plant ash in celadons and limestone in Jingdezhen glazes, something that is not clear from major element analysis. Furthermore, the technique is able to suggest by implication the nature of the silica source used in the glazes—normally weathered granitic rocks or metamorphic rocks (porcelain stone) which also contains Sr. This leads to an isotopic mixing line of the 2 Sr-rich components and is proof that 2 Sr-rich components were mixed in the manufacture of limestone glaze. This is not the case for plant ash glazes. Eventually, the technique may be used in provenance studies. Like Sr isotope analysis, lead isotope analysis relies on there being a lack of or a minimal change in the isotope ratios when the raw materials are heated. Lead isotope analysis links the use of lead in glazes to the original metal ore and if a kiln uses a distinctive lead source in its glazes, it can provide a provenance for the pottery. This has been very successful in distinguishing Chinese Tang sancai wares made in the Huangye, Huangbao, Liquanfang and Qionglai kilns

Fibromyalgia patients and controls are equally accurate in detecting tactile stimuli while observing another in pain: an experimental study.

This study investigated the effects of observing pain in others upon vicarious somatosensory experiences and the detection of somatosensory stimuli in both fibromyalgia (FM) patients and controls. The putative modulatory role of dispositional empathy, hypervigilance to pain, and central sensitization was examined. FM patients (n = 39) and controls (n = 38) saw videos depicting pain-related (hands being pricked) and non-pain-related scenes, while occasionally experiencing vibrotactile stimuli themselves on the left, right, or both hands. Participants reported the location at which they felt a somatosensory stimulus. Tactile and visual scenes were presented in the same spatial location (congruent; e.g., left-left) or from opposite locations (incongruent; e.g., left-right). We calculated the proportion of correct responses, vicarious somatosensory experiences (i.e., trials on which an illusory somatosensory experience was reported while observing pain-related scenes), and neglect errors (i.e., reporting only the site congruent to the visual pain-related information when both hands had been stimulated). Observing another in pain resulted in an equal numbers of vicarious somatosensory experiences in both groups and facilitated the detection of tactile stimuli, especially during spatially congruent trials. Counter to our expectations, this facilitation was not moderated by group. FM patients made fewer neglect errors. Hypervigilance for pain, dispositional empathy, and central sensitization did not exert a modulatory role. Observing pain facilitates the detection of tactile stimuli in FM patients and controls. Overall, a low incidence of vicarious experiences was observed. Further research is needed to understand the role of attentional body focus in the elicitation of vicarious experiences