Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species

Transition from development cooperation to broader forms of cooperation in Nepal : Comparisons, lessons learned and recommendations for policy and action

The study was conducted to provide directions for Finland's long-term grant-based development cooperation towards new forms of partnerships in Nepal, in the wake of Nepal’s upcoming Least Development Country (LDC) graduation in 2026. Mixed methods, such as assessment of volumes of development assistance and bilateral trade between Finland and Nepal, were used for quantitative analysis, and interviews with 33 different takeholders in Finland and Nepal, plus an in-depth document and article review, were carried out as a part of the qualitative analysis. Existing frameworks for comparative analyses, cross-cutting issues, a stakeholder’s assessment, and overall transition planning in bilateral development cooperation contexts were further discussed in the study. It was found that Finland’s transition thinking in Nepal is relatively ahead of not only other developmental partners in Nepal but also of the Nepalese government’s own preparations for graduation. Therefore, it is recommended that Finland could lead Nepal's transition thinking, planning and execution together with other developmental partners, especially in thematic areas where it has a long history of cooperation and expertise in Nepal, such as in education, water, sanitation and hygiene, as well as in cross-cutting issues in gender, human rights and climate change. More opportunities for other forms of partnerships in these sectors could be forged through supporting active communication and dissemination of existing knowledge, practices, networks, success stories, and lessons learnt, for practical collaboration among stakeholders in Finland and Nepal, such as Finnish expatriates in Nepal, the Nepalese diaspora in Finland, Finnish civil society organisations, education institutions, and private entities.This report is commissioned as part of UniPID Development Policy Studies (UniPID DPS), funded by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland (MFA) and managed by the Finnish University Partnership for International Development (UniPID). UniPID is a network of Finnish universities established to strengthen universities’ global responsibility and collaboration with partners from the Global South, in support of sustainable development. The UniPID DPS instrument strengthens knowledge-based development policy by identifying the most suitable available researchers to respond to the timely knowledge needs of the MFA and by facilitating a framework for dialogue between researchers and ministry officials. The content of this report does not reflect the official opinion of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland. The responsibility for the information and views expressed in the report lies entirely with the authors

Patterns of historical and future urban expansion in Nepal

Globally, urbanization is increasing at an unprecedented rate at the cost of agricultural and forested lands in peri-urban areas fringing larger cities. Such land-cover change generally entails negative implications for societal and environmental sustainability, particularly in South Asia, where high demographic growth and poor land-use planning combine. Analyzing historical land-use change and predicting the future trends concerning urban expansion may support more effective land-use planning and sustainable outcomes. For Nepal's Tarai region-a populous area experiencing land-use change due to urbanization and other factors-we draw on Landsat satellite imagery to analyze historical land-use change focusing on urban expansion during 1989-2016 and predict urban expansion by 2026 and 2036 using artificial neural network (ANN) and Markov chain (MC) spatial models based on historical trends. Urban cover quadrupled since 1989, expanding by 256 km2 (460%), largely as small scattered settlements. This expansion was almost entirely at the expense of agricultural conversion (249 km2). After 2016, urban expansion is predicted to increase linearly by a further 199 km2 by 2026 and by another 165 km2 by 2036, almost all at the expense of agricultural cover. Such unplanned loss of prime agricultural lands in Nepal's fertile Tarai region is of serious concern for food-insecure countries like Nepal

Horizontal integration of multiple institutions: solutions for Yarshagumba related conflict in the Himalayan region of Nepal?

The incidence of conflicts among communities over the collection of Yarsagumba, the high value caterpillar fungus, has increased after the Government of Nepal has lifted a ban on its collection and trade in 2001. In most cases, conflicts over Yarsagumba harvesting persist either between locals and outsiders, or between collectors within a local community. In the Api Nampa Conservation Area in Darchula District, Nepal, conflicts are primarily caused by the competition for control over resources. The rights of the indigenous Shauka community(migratory herders), the Api Nampa Conservation Authority, and the non-Shauka communities of lower villages are at odds due to a lack of clarity, and the absence of coordination regarding the access to resources in the landscape. The Shauka community has restricted the Yarsagumba collection by ‘outsiders’ to specific and limited areas of their community forest and traditional grazing land. The lowland, non-Shauka community who are dissatisfied with the restrictions have excluded the Shauka people from the utilization of their winter pasture for animal grazing possible through the introduction of a community forestry programme. In this conflict, both communities suffer as the migratory lifestyle of the Shauka has been adversely affected, and earnings of the lowland community from Yarsagumba collection have been reduced. This is a no-win situation. Our study suggests that the Government of Nepal should prepare a national Yarsagumba management policy and local Yarsagumba management guidelines to address conflicts by clearly defining the roles, responsibilities and rights of local institutions and actors, while ensuring the provision of particular services in the community forestry programme to distant and seasonal users

Global lessons from successful rhinoceros conservation in Nepal

Global populations of rhinoceros have declined alarmingly, from about 500,000 at the beginning of the 20th century to 29,000 in 2016, largely due to an escalation of poaching for rhinoceros horn (Traffic 2016; Biggs et al. 2013). The current global rhino population is comprised of three Asian Species and two African species, the latter located in South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania, Namibia and Zimbabwe,. In Africa, the Southern white rhinoceros population is estimated at 20,700; and there are estimated to be around 4,885 black rhinoceros. The greater one-horned rhinoceros, found in Nepal and India, has a population of approximately 3,555. The other Asian rhino species are confined to Indonesia and have much lower numbers; there are fewer than 100 Sumatran rhinos and only 58–61 Javan rhinos. The number of African rhino killed by poachers in the last ten years is estimated at 5,957 (Traffic 2016; Emslie et al. 2013; Poaching fact2016), about 1,338 of these were taken in 2015, a year in which the highest number of rhino were taken since the late 1980s (Traffic 2016; Gaworecki 2016; Figure 1). At current poaching rates, Africa’s rhino populations may be extinct within 20 years (Di Minin et al. 2015). The Sumatran and Javan rhino populations continue to decline due to habitat destruction, poaching and inbreeding (Save the Rhino, 2016b) pushing them to the verge of extinction

Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya

Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator–prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy-deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate-only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km2) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km2 (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate-only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator–prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards – a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future

Is trophy hunting of bharal (blue sheep) and Himalayan tahr contributing to their conservation in Nepal?

Dhorpatan Hunting Reserve (DHR), the only hunting reserve in Nepal, is famous for trophy hunting of bharal or ‘blue sheep’ (Pseudois nayaur) and Himalayan tahr (Hemitragus jemlahicus). Although trophy hunting has been occurring in DHR since 1987, its ecological consequences are poorly known. We assessed the ecological consequences of bharal and Himalayan tahr hunting in DHR, and estimated the economic contribution of hunting to the government and local communities based on the revenue data. The bharal population increased significantly from 1990 to 2011, but the sex ratio became skewed from male-biased (129 Male:100 Female) in 1990 to female-biased (82 Male:100 Female) in 2011. Similarly, a recent survey of Himalayan tahr showed that there was a total population of 285 tahr with a sex ratio of 60 Male: 100 Female. Bharal and Himalayan tahr trophy hunting has generated economic benefits through generation of local employment and direct income of $364072 during the last five years. Government revenue collected from 2007-08 to 2011-12 totalled$184372. Male-focused trophy hunting as practiced in DHR may not be an ecologically sustainable practice, because its effect on the sex ratio that lead to negative consequences for the genetic structure of the population in the long term. Therefore, the population dynamics and sex ratios of the bharal and tahr must be considered while setting harvest quotas

Decreasing brown bear (Ursus arctos) habitat due to climate change in Central Asia and the Asian Highlands

Around the world, climate change has impacted many species. In this study, we used bioclimatic variables and biophysical layers of Central Asia and the Asian Highlands combined with presence data of brown bear (Ursus arctos) to understand their current distribution and predict their future distribution under the current rate of climate change. Our bioclimatic model showed that the current suitable habitat of brown bear encompasses 3,430,493 km2 in the study area, the majority of which (>65%) located in China. Our analyses demonstrated that suitable habitat will be reduced by 11% (378,861.30 km2) across Central Asia and the Asian Highlands by 2,050 due to climate change, predominantly (>90%) due to the changes in temperature and precipitation. The spatially averaged mean annual temperature of brown bear habitat is currently −1.2°C and predicted to increase to 1.6°C by 2,050. Mean annual precipitation in brown bear habitats is predicted to increase by 13% (from 406 to 459 mm) by 2,050. Such changes in two critical climatic variables may significantly affect the brown bear distribution, ethological repertoires, and physiological processes, which may increase their risk of extirpation in some areas. Approximately 32% (1,124,330 km2) of the total suitable habitat falls within protected areas, which was predicted to reduce to 1,103,912 km2 (1.8% loss) by 2,050. Future loss of suitable habitats inside the protected areas may force brown bears to move outside the protected areas thereby increasing their risk of mortality. Therefore, more protected areas should be established in the suitable brown bear habitats in future to sustain populations in this region. Furthermore, development of corridors is needed to connect habitats between protected areas of different countries in Central Asia. Such practices will facilitate climate migration and connectivity among populations and movement between and within countries

Biodiversity, drug discovery, and the future of global health:Introducing the biodiversity to biomedicine consortium, a call to action

First paragraph: Looking to nature for medicine is nothing new – we have been doing it for tens of thousands of years and although modern pharmaceutical science has come a long way from those ancient roots, nature is and will always be an important source of useful compounds and inspiration. Dismissing nature in this regard is a huge mistake as evolution is the greatest problem solver and the myriad compounds produced by the immense variety of species we share the planet with have been honed by three billion years of trial and error. However, with every bit of habitat that disappears under the plough or concrete we impoverish nature and deprive ourselves of potential medicines.Additional co-authors: Uttam Babu Shrestha, Milica Pešić, Alexander Kagansk

Biodiversity, drug discovery, and the future of global health: Introducing the biodiversity to biomedicine consortium, a call to action

Looking to nature for medicine is nothing new – we have been doing it for tens of thousands of years and although modern pharmaceutical science has come a long way from those ancient roots, nature is and will always be an important source of useful compounds and inspiration. Dismissing nature in this regard is a huge mistake as evolution is the greatest problem solver and the myriad compounds produced by the immense variety of species we share the planet with have been honed by three billion years of trial and error. However, with every bit of habitat that disappears under the plough or concrete we impoverish nature and deprive ourselves of potential medicines