CAP-reform and the provision of non-commodity outputs in Brandenburg

This paper presents an attempt to model the response of selected farms to decoupled direct payments and the associated impact on the provision of a defined set of non-commodity outputs (NCO’s) using a combined modelling approach consisting of the AgriPoliS and MODAM models. AgriPoliS focuses on the socio-economic dimension of multifunctionality at the individual farm and regional levels and explicitly models heterogeneous farms (in size, location and efficiency) within a competitive and dynamic environment. The linear-programming model MODAM allows a detailed representation of production processes and their impact on the environmental dimension of multifunctionality at the farm level. We simulate the impact of a uniform area payment and a fully decoupled single farm payment. Our case study region is the district Ostprignitz-Ruppin in Brandenburg. Results show that the decoupling schemes create a trade-off between the NCO’s and that adjustment reactions differ between farms depending on their legal form, size, and production.decoupling, multifunctionality, non-commodity outputs, modelling, simulation, policy analysis, ecological indicators, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Protection effect of overwintering water bird habitat and defining the conservation priority area in Poyang Lake wetland, China

Biodiversity conservation is one of the most important objectives of protected areas. Most biodiversity assessment-related studies use the change in species abundance data to measure the level of biodiversity conservation. Yet for many areas, long-term species data are not available and thus it is necessary to use biodiversity indices to monitor the effect of land use (LU) changes or the impact of protected area establishment. Poyang Lake wetland is one of the most important wintering sites for migratory water birds on the East Asian–Australasian flyway. To protect this habitat, 14 nature reserves were created in the region between 1997 and 2003. This paper aims to assess the effect of nature reserve creation on the status of habitat for overwintering water birds in Poyang Lake wetland by analysing LU and land cover data from 1995, 2005 and 2015. We developed a composite biodiversity index to search for current biodiversity hotspots (conservation priority) in the study area. An integrated approach consisting of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model, GIS, fragment analysis and hotspot analysis was used to realize our objective. Our results showed that the creation of the nature reserve had positive effects on overwintering water bird habitat. However, tremendous changes (such as change of habitat area, quality and fragmentation) within and outside the nature reserve showed that the role of protected area still needs to be further discussed. Moreover, regional synthesis LU management plans such as ecological restoration should be carried out. The results of the habitat assessment also indicate that a comprehensive biodiversity index framework based on net primary productivity, habitat connectivity and habitat quality could be more efficient in assessing biodiversity and defining a reasonable protected area, from data obtain in large scale perspective.Program for BINGWEI Excellent Young Talents of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesNatural Sciences Foundation of ChinaPeer Reviewe

Patterns of livestock loss associated with a recolonizing wolf population in Germany

Predation on livestock presents a daunting challenge for human–carnivore coexistence in agricultural landscapes. In Germany, the recolonization of wolves is ongoing and its consequences are insufficiently understood. Knowledge about which livestock species are susceptible to wolf predation, which farm types are predisposed to attacks by wolves, and when predation on livestock occurs is valuable for mitigating stakeholder conflicts. To this end, we analyzed 14 years of monitoring data and assessed the livestock prey spectrum, identified correlates between predation on livestock, farm type and livestock category, and described temporal patterns of livestock loss caused by a recolonizing wolf population in the state of Brandenburg (Germany). Among a total of 1387 recorded cases, 42% were unequivocally attributed to wolves (SCALP criteria C1 and C2) and 12% of cases were not caused by wolves. The number of head of livestock killed during a single wolf attack was mediated by farm type and livestock species; losses per event were greater in full-time farms vs. other farm types and greater in sheep, farmed deer and other livestock species, compared to cattle. While sheep were the most commonly killed livestock species, the increase in wolf territories over the investigation period was associated with a widening of the domestic prey species spectrum. Count regression models provided evidence for the increasing frequency of predation events over the 14-year period, along with an exponential increase in wolf territories. Predation on livestock occurred throughout the year, yet seasonality of events was evident and differed across livestock categories. Predation on sheep peaked in the fall, coinciding with the post-weaning period of wolf offspring. Predation on cattle peaked in the spring, coinciding with the cattle calving period. These results call for renewed investment in the implementation of prevention methods for all susceptible domestic species, particularly during times of elevated predation risk.Peer Reviewe

Classification of agricultural priority and reserved areas in Brandenburg under consideration of bio-economic climate simulations

Ensuring a crisis-proof food supply has become a key political issue. In Germany, official spatial planning allows the use of priority and reserved areas to secure land for agricultural use and regional food supply. The focus should be particularly on climate-resilient areas that also have a stable yield potential in the future. This paper supplements widely used, static approaches for determining priority and reserved areas with a dynamic bio-economic analysis that takes future climate scenarios into account. The results for the German federal state of Brandenburg show a high area equivalence between the static and dynamic approaches. In the case of data gaps, for example, static approaches such as soil quality indices can serve as an adequate proxy for future yield potentials. However, not all climate-robust areas can be classified as potential reserved or priority areas. Furthermore, areas that show low yield potential under future conditions are not released for other land uses. Feedback from stakeholders involved in the study showed that the use of the dynamic approach and a target value using the results of a foodshed model lead to broad acceptance. The method developed here can make a valuable contribution to climate change adaptation in spatial planning instruments.Eine krisensichere Lebensmittelversorgung hat sich zu einem politischen Kernthema in Deutschland entwickelt. Durch Vorrang- und Vorbehaltsgebiete können raumordnerisch Flächen für die landwirtschaftliche Nutzung und die regionale Nahrungsversorgung gesichert werden. Dabei sollte der Fokus insbesondere auf klimarobusten Flächen liegen, die auch zukünftig ein stabiles Ertragspotenzial aufweisen. Der vorliegende Beitrag ergänzt weit verbreitete, statische Ansätze zur Bestimmung von Vorrang- und Vorbehaltsgebieten um eine dynamische bio-ökonomische Analyse unter Berücksichtigung zukünftiger Klimaszenarien. Die Ergebnisse für die Beispielregion Brandenburg zeigen eine hohe Flächenäquivalenz zwischen dem statischen und dem dynamischen Ansatz. Im Fall von beispielsweise Datenlücken können statische Ansätze wie Ackerzahlen als adäquater Indikator für zukünftige Ertragspotenziale dienen. So können jedoch nicht alle klimarobusten Gebiete als potenzielle landwirtschaftliche Vorbehalts- oder Vorzugsgebiete klassifiziert werden. Außerdem werden Flächen, welche unter zukünftigen Bedingungen ein geringes Ertragspotenzial zeigen, nicht für andere Landnutzungen freigegeben. Das Feedback von in der Studie einbezogenen Interessengruppen zeigt, dass die Verwendung des dynamischen Ansatzes und eines Zielwerts unter Verwendung der Ergebnisse eines foodshed-Modells zu einer breiten Akzeptanz führt. Die hier entwickelte Methode kann einen wertvollen Beitrag zur Integration von Klimaanpassungselementen in raumordnerische Instrumente leisten

How European Agricultural Policy affects the development of farms

Die Unterschiede zwischen Regionen in Europa müssen bei der Umsetzung von Politikansätzen berücksichtigt werden. Das gilt insbesondere für die verschiedenen Faktoren, die die Landwirtschaft beeinflussen. Durch eine integrierte Modellierung kann die Anpassung politischer Entscheidungen unterstützt werden

Sustainability indicators for improved assessment of the effects of agricultural policy across the EU: Is FADN the answer?

peer-reviewedPolicy reform of the CAP and society’s expectations of agriculture have resulted in a growing need for improved information on the effectiveness of policy in achieving high-level objectives for more sustainable practice in agriculture. This is a high priority given its importance for consumers, public policy and private industry. Data collection programmes will need to adapt their scope if their information is to adequately address new information needs about high-level objectives. Assessment of sustainability at the farm level is hindered by the lack of data with which to derive appropriate, meaningful, and relevant indicators. This is particularly problematic for assessment of agricultural sustainability across the European Union (EU). Various databases exist at the EU scale regarding agricultural data sources and we identify one of these, the EU Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN), as having considerable potential to assess farm-level sustainability at EU level. We critique several examples of published work that has attempted to assess agricultural sustainability using: FADN data alone; FADN data in combination with data from supplementary surveys, and; FADN data in combination with data from other EU databases. We conclude that the FADN would need to broaden its scope of data collection if it is to address the new information needs of policy, and we discuss the challenges in expanding FADN with a view towards wider farm-level assessment of sustainability. These include careful selection of indicators based on various criteria, the representativeness of the FADN, and the need to include new themes to address environmental, social, and animal welfare effects of policy.This work was partly funded by the FLINT project under the EU Seventh Framework Programme grant number 613800

How improving the technical efficiency of Moroccan saffron farms can contribute to sustainable agriculture in the Anti-Atlas region

The saffron sector as a sustainable farming system plays a primordial agro-ecological and socio-economic role in the Anti- Atlas region in Morocco. Under the Green Morocco Policy, the saffron area has more than tripled; however, productivity is still very low. To evaluate the efficiency of Moroccan saffron farming and its determinants, we estimated a stochastic frontier model using survey data collected in the production area. The results show that saffron farms suffer from technical inefficien- cies. More time dedicated to saffron field operations, a higher number of saffron plots and a greater distance to the urban centre increase farm efficiency, while the age of the farmer and the presence of off-farm activities decrease it. Building on our results, we argue that the new policy “Generation Green” should be focused on younger farmers as they are more likely to improve their skills and crop management techniques. To upscale the adoption of saffron as a sustainable farming system, an improvement in farmers’ market access is necessary which would facilitate farm specialisation, convert saffron to a major source of income and reduce dependence on off-farm activities. Strengthening the role of saffron cooperatives could represent an important step in this direction, but this requires improved knowledge dissemination and technology access

Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling

Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches determined by the purpose of the exercise and by technical, methodological and epistemological constraints. Our case studies do not suggest Malthusian futures for a projected global population of 9 billion in 2050; but international trade will be a crucial determinant of outcomes; and the concept of sustainability across the dimensions of the food system has been inadequately explored so far. The impact of scenario analysis at a global scale could be strengthened with participatory processes involving key actors at other geographical scales. Food system models are valuable in managing existing knowledge on system behaviour and ensuring the credibility of qualitative stories but they are limited by current datasets for global crop production and trade, land use and hydrology. Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address