Only decisive western action can prevent eastern Ukraine from becoming another Crimea

Buildings have been occupied by groups in several towns and cities in eastern Ukraine, while the Ukrainian government has begun a military operation to try and regain control. Borja Guijarro Usobiaga writes on potential diplomatic solutions to the crisis. He argues that any western-backed solution must involve Russia as a partner and be stronger than the response produced by the United States and the European Union to the situation in Crimea. He also notes that if the West cannot take the diplomatic initiative then the situation could escalate extremely quickly

The EU’s ‘tougher’ sanctions against Russia must be used as a step toward greater engagement, not simply as a punishment

On 29 July, EU governments approved a number of new sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis. Borja Guijarro-Usobiaga writes on the likely impact of the new sanctions, arguing that rather than simply using sanctions as a method for punishing Russia, they must be seen as a stepping stone to promote greater engagement with the country. He notes that alienating Russia would not only pose a problem for the crisis in Ukraine, but also for other conflicts such as the civil war in Syria

Economic sanctions: Past & Future

In this post for LSE International History, Borja Guijarro-Usobiaga discusses the past, present and future of sanctions. The article analyses the evolution and effectiveness of sanctions as a deterrence and punishment mechanism. Mr Guijarro-Usobiaga argues that sanctions have come a long-way since the 1990s and do constitute an effective means through which to enforce international norms. They do not, however, constitute a silver bullet

The ecological state and fishing practices of coral reefs in South Buton

The Coral Triangle in South East Asia hosts coral reef ecosystems capable of supporting and securing the livelihoods of millions of people due to its high biological productivity and diversity. However, for many areas such as those found in South East Sulawesi, Indonesia, there is a dearth of socio-ecological information concerning reef condition and associated fishing practices. Coral reefs are currently under threat from anthropogenic and natural stressors, therefore it is vital to provide reef managers with reference point socioecological data to aid them in designing and implementing strategic reef management plans. Four standard ecological indices – benthic composition, fish biomass, invertebrate abundance, and reef structural complexity – were used to explore reef conditions in the southern point of Buton Island, Indonesia, using diver-operated stereo video systems. Fishing practices in the region were evaluated with 15 minute face-to-face surveys with fishers. Overall, the coral reefs in South Buton were found to be in relatively 'good' ecological condition (using coral cover as the primary indices where 51-75% as defined by Suharsono (1998) for Indonesian coral reefs), with one reef (Pulau Ular) exemplary in coral cover. In contrast, there were reefs (namely Nirwana) showing signs of substantial degradation with rubble and sand dominated habitats that hosted very few fish and invertebrates of importance to fishers. Furthermore, coral reefs in South Buton compared favorably to those in the neighboring region at Wakatobi National Park, where longer term management actions have ensured habitat protection, as well as food and livelihood security. The fishing practices of South Buton communities were characterized by fishing focused on off shore pelagic fish rather than on reef associated species. Maintaining high diversity and abundance on South Buton reefs may therefore not require substantial interference with current fishing practices. In particular, my conclusions suggest that it is not necessary to designate the entire study area as a no-take marine park zone. For future reef management plans in the South Buton region, the work herein illustrates the benefits of evaluating local community perceptions and needs early in the management-planning phase. Importantly, this thesis provides a reference point of socio-ecological data from which a fixed long-term monitoring program of reef health can build upon, and which should underpin any successful management actions

Russia and the West are now firmly locked in a war of economic attrition

Following the annexation of Crimea earlier this year, the EU has implemented escalating sanctions against Russia. Borja Guijarro-Usobiaga writes on the impact the sanctions are having on both Russia and Europe. He argues that with neither Russia nor the West willing to make unilateral concessions to solve the crisis, the most likely result is a lasting political deadlock until the costs experienced by both sides provide incentives to normalise relations

Retos metodológicos para estudiar la vulnerabilidad demográfica y residencial a nivel intraurbano ante los cambios en las fuentes estadísticas habituales.

Los estudios geográficos aplicados a escalas de detalle se encuentran muy condicionados por la disponibilidad de fuentes de referencia. Esto es determinante en este momento, en el que asistimos a cambios en las fuentes estadísticas oficiales, que pueden poner en riesgo la continuidad de investigaciones representativas a nivel intraurbano. Se afianza, así, un período idóneo para explorar fuentes alternativas que implicarán necesariamente nuevas pautas metodológicas. En este marco, el artículo apuesta por nuevos planteamientos para la determinación de los patrones espaciales de la población vulnerable a nivel intraurbano, a partir de datos disponibles y observables de edificación y entorno. Tras una aproximación a nivel de sección censal, el estudio se centra en modelizar la vulnerabilidad demográfica y residencial a nivel de edificio, mediante métodos downscaling. Esta metodología puede ser exportada a otras ciudades españolas e, incluso, a otros países con una ligera adaptación

Personality traits and social inequality

During many decades, sociologists have downplayed the role that personality traits play in shaping individual’s lives. However, recent studies, mostly in economics, have shown the influence of these traits on a several educational and occupational outcomes. This thesis is an attempt to shed more light on this topic. By using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, it first investigates how the Big Five personality traits affect two important labor market outcomes: unemployment incidence and job mobility. The results from these first two articles show two things. First, personality traits contribute importantly to processes of job mobility and job loss. Second, models including personality traits fit better compare to models that exclude them. Additionally, the inclusion of personality traits also improves our understanding of the underlying process in the labor market. The second part of this thesis focuses on how personality traits are transmitted from parents to their children. My results show that socialization processes are extremely important in the transmission and development of personality traits. Higher educated parents are more successful in promoting socially desirable and success-enhancing traits than lower educated ones. While there is a direct influence of the parent’s education on the development of children’s personality traits, the effect is mediated by different childrearing practices and by the use of external daycare

Improving the Effectiveness of Sanctions: A Checklist for the EU. CEPS Special Report No. 95, 6 November 2014

The increasingly frequent imposition of sanctions by the EU over the past decade has not been accompanied by a thorough pre-assessment and contingency planning stage, which, argue the authors, has led to the formulation of suboptimal sanctions regimes. This paper proposes a practical pre-assessment and contingency planning of sanctions – a checklist, which departs from the ‘ad hoc-ism’ of current decision-making on sanctions. The checklist includes the identification of resources linked to the objectionable policies; the leverage of the EU; the costs to the EU; the legality of the measures; their unintended effects; the expected contribution towards EU goals; their coherence with overall EU external relations; and the communication of these policies

European sanctions reconsidered: regime type, strategic bargaining, and the imposition of EU sanctions

Since the end of the Cold War, the European Union (EU) has become a prominent sender of international sanctions. Most of its sanctions regimes have been imposed to address human rights violations and democratic shortcomings in autocratic regimes. While these developments have attracted an increased attention by academics and practitioners alike, not much is known about the underlying factors that trigger the EU’s decision to impose sanctions in the very first place. Using a new database of EU democratic sanctions between 1989 and 2010, this thesis develops a theoretical model that shows that the imposition of sanctions is the result of a strategic bargaining process between a sender and a target country. I argue that sanctions are only one possible outcome of this process, and claim that the likelihood that sanctions are imposed depends, to a large extent, on the target country’s decision to comply with the sender before sanctions are imposed or, alternatively, on its determination to ignore the sender’s threat of sanctions and resist its pressure. I show that the target’s decision to comply or resist is the result of an endogenous policy formation process, which is determined by the target regime’s domestic institutional setting. Different types of institutions (regime types) impose varying degrees of constraints on the ruler’s margin of manoeuvre and shape her policy choices vis-à-vis the threat and imposition of sanctions. I demonstrate that regimes that face no domestic constraints and rely on a small winning coalition of supporters are likely to be strong and willing to resist the sender’s pressure, thereby “self-selecting” themselves into sanctions. By the same token, regimes that face many domestic constraints are vulnerable to sanctions, and face incentives to comply with the sender before sanctions are imposed. My thesis makes several contributions to the literature. First, it provides a theoretical explanation of how domestic institutions matter in the imposition of sanctions, and identifies a set of conditions under which sanctions are more likely (not) to be imposed. Second, it empirically demonstrates the presence of selection effects in the study of sanctions imposition, and shows that these are channelled through the target regime’s domestic institutions. Finally, my findings have relevant policy implications, as they suggest that sanctions are more likely to be effective against certain types of targets. I show that sanctions are more likely to succeed against politically constrained regimes at the threat stage or early during a sanctions episode, whilst they are likely to fail against highly authoritarian regimes which rule free of domestic constraints

The Application of LiDAR Data for the Solar Potential Analysis Based on Urban 3D Model

Solar maps are becoming a popular resource and are available via the web to help plan investments for the benefits of renewable energy. These maps are especially useful when the results have high accuracy. LiDAR technology currently offers high-resolution data sources that are very suitable for obtaining an urban 3D geometry with high precision. Three-dimensional visualization also offers a more accurate and intuitive perspective of reality than 2D maps. This paper presents a new method for the calculation and visualization of the solar potential of building roofs on an urban 3D model, based on LiDAR data. The paper describes the proposed methodology to (1) calculate the solar potential, (2) generate an urban 3D model, (3) semantize the urban 3D model with different existing and calculated data, and (4) visualize the urban 3D model in a 3D web environment. The urban 3D model is based on the CityGML standard, which offers the ability to consistently combine geometry and semantics and enable the integration of different levels (building and city) in a continuous model. The paper presents the workflow and results of application to the city of Vitoria-Gasteiz in Spain. This paper also shows the potential use of LiDAR data in different domains that can be connected using different technologies and different scales.The European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 691883, SMARTENCITY supported and funded this study