2015年ゴルカ地震（ネパール）とその被害

第6回極域科学シンポジウム[OG] 地圏11月16日（月）　国立極地研究所１階交流アトリウ

Student Himalayan Exercise Program: Summary of four years activity

第6回極域科学シンポジウム[OG] 地圏11月16日（月）　国立極地研究所１階交流アトリウ

Discovery of sediment indicating rapid lake-level fall in the late Pleistocene Gokarna Formation, Kathmandu Valley, Nepal: implication for terrace formation

Sediment indicating a rapid fall in lake level has been discovered in the late Pleistocene Gokarna Formation, Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The indicator is observed along a widely traceable erosional surface in this formation, and is characterized by (1) gently inclined (ca. 10°) tabular cross-stratified sand beds of delta front origin consisting of coarser material and showing gradual decrease in elevation of its top to the progradation direction, (2) an antidune cross-laminated sand bed that interfingers with the delta front deposit, and (3) an approximately 5 m-deep erosional depression filled with convolute laminated sand beds and recognized at a location distal to that where deposits (1) and (2) were found. The early phase of rapid lake level fall caused minor erosion of the delta plain deposits by fluvial processes, introducing a higher rate of progradation of the delta front and resulting in the accumulation of deposit (1). The delta emerged as dry land due to further lowering of the lake level. The antidune cross-laminated sand bed shows evidence of having accumulated from a high-velocity stream that may have formed as the lake water drained from the delta front during the lowering of lake level. When the lake level fell below the level of the topographic high created by delta accumulation, incised valleys may have formed and part of them may have been filled with sediment at that time. The rapid fall in lake level is interpreted to have been the result of lake-wall failure, which would have occurred at the gorge outlet as the only discharge path for the basin. The initial rise of lake level causing accumulation of terrace sediments may have been due to the formation of a plug at this outlet, attributable to mass movement along the gorge

Pre- and post-seismic deformation related to the 2015, M_w 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal

We analyze time series from continuously recording GPS stations in Nepal spanning the pre- and post-seismic period associated to the M_w7.8 Gorkha earthquake which ruptured the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) fault on April 25th, 2015. The records show strong seasonal variations due to surface hydrology. After corrections for these variations, the time series covering the pre- and post-seismic periods do not show any detectable transient pre-seismic displacement. By contrast, a transient post-seismic signal is clear. The observed signal shows southward displacements consistent with afterslip on the MHT. Using additional data from stations deployed after the mainshock, we invert the time series for the spatio-temporal evolution of slip on the MHT. This modelling indicates afterslip dominantly downdip of the mainshock rupture. Two other regions show significant afterslip: a more minor zone updip of the rupture, and a region between the mainshock and the largest aftershock ruptures. Afterslip in the first ~ 7 months after the mainshock released a moment of [12.8 ± 0.5] × 10^(19) Nm which represents 17.8 ± 0.8% of the co-seismic moment. The moment released by aftershocks over that period of time is estimated to 2.98 × 10^(19) Nm. Geodetically observed post-seismic deformation after co-seismic offset correction was thus 76.7 ± 1.0% aseismic. The logarithmic time evolution of afterslip is consistent with rate-strengthening frictional sliding. According to this theory, and assuming a long-term loading velocity modulated on the basis of the coupling map of the region and the long term slip rate of 20.2 ± 1.1 mm/yr, afterslip should release about 34.0 ± 1.4% of the co-seismic moment after full relaxation of post-seismic deformation. Afterslip contributed to loading the shallower portion of the MHT which did not rupture in 2015 and stayed locked afterwards. The risk for further large earthquakes in Nepal remains high both updip of the rupture area of the Gorkha earthquake and West of Kathmandu where the MHT has remained locked and where no earthquake larger than M_w7.5 has occurred since 1505

Pre- and post-seismic deformation related to the 2015, M_w 7.8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal

We analyze time series from continuously recording GPS stations in Nepal spanning the pre- and post-seismic period associated to the M_w7.8 Gorkha earthquake which ruptured the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) fault on April 25th, 2015. The records show strong seasonal variations due to surface hydrology. After corrections for these variations, the time series covering the pre- and post-seismic periods do not show any detectable transient pre-seismic displacement. By contrast, a transient post-seismic signal is clear. The observed signal shows southward displacements consistent with afterslip on the MHT. Using additional data from stations deployed after the mainshock, we invert the time series for the spatio-temporal evolution of slip on the MHT. This modelling indicates afterslip dominantly downdip of the mainshock rupture. Two other regions show significant afterslip: a more minor zone updip of the rupture, and a region between the mainshock and the largest aftershock ruptures. Afterslip in the first ~ 7 months after the mainshock released a moment of [12.8 ± 0.5] × 10^(19) Nm which represents 17.8 ± 0.8% of the co-seismic moment. The moment released by aftershocks over that period of time is estimated to 2.98 × 10^(19) Nm. Geodetically observed post-seismic deformation after co-seismic offset correction was thus 76.7 ± 1.0% aseismic. The logarithmic time evolution of afterslip is consistent with rate-strengthening frictional sliding. According to this theory, and assuming a long-term loading velocity modulated on the basis of the coupling map of the region and the long term slip rate of 20.2 ± 1.1 mm/yr, afterslip should release about 34.0 ± 1.4% of the co-seismic moment after full relaxation of post-seismic deformation. Afterslip contributed to loading the shallower portion of the MHT which did not rupture in 2015 and stayed locked afterwards. The risk for further large earthquakes in Nepal remains high both updip of the rupture area of the Gorkha earthquake and West of Kathmandu where the MHT has remained locked and where no earthquake larger than M_w7.5 has occurred since 1505

New GPS station network and elastic half-space modeling of Nepalese Himalayan tectonics and earthquake hazard

Considerable controversy still exists over if and how climate and orogenic evolution may be coupled. A prime example of this debate centers on the Himalayan front where profound gradients in both precipitation and topography occur in a similar location – roughly coincident with the Main Central Thrust Zone (MCT) (Fig. 1). Some researchers (e. g., Hodges 2006; Wobus et al. 2005) suggest that the high precipitation rates drive high erosion rates and thus out-of-sequence thrusting and channel flow in this region. Others think the evidence points to a steeper sub-surface ramp causing the topographic rise and thus capturing higher precipi tation rates (e.g., Bollinger et al. 2006; Robinson et al. 2006). In one scenario climate is a driver of orogenic development, in the other it is a passive responder. Some field work suggests that out-of-sequence thrusting is occurring (Mukul et al. 2007). However, a more detailed understanding of modern ground motion will help to determine if out-of-sequence thrusting is indeed occurring. To this end, a new permanent GPS network is being established in the Nepalese Himalaya, which provides greater northeast-southwest transect density of stations than the newly established Caltech network (Bollinger et al. 2006) and more continuous coverage than the campaign GPS (Bilham et al. 1997) of the 1990’s. Six stations were established in June 2008 and an additional 12-15 are planned as funding is secured. Work is also underway to use an elastic half-space model to predict expected surface deformation under different active fault scenarios. Model results will be compared to the GPS results. The project is a joint venture between Central Washington University, USA and Tribhuvan University, Nepal. The influx of permanent GPS stations into Nepal will help better determine if Indian and Nepalese ground motion truly differs (Jade et al. 2007). In addition to helping determine likely tectonic models for the Nepalese Himalaya and give insights into climate-vs-tectonic drivers, this project should help us better understand earthquake hazards in Nepal. For instance, whether only one near-surface fault (Main Frontal Thrust–MFT) is active versus several active faults has considerable impact on earthquake-associated hazards

Radon emanation of heterogeneous basin deposits in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

International audienceEffective radium-226 concentration ( EC Ra) has been measured in soil samples from seven horizontal and vertical profiles of terrace scarps in the northern part of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. The samples belong to the Thimi, Gokarna, and Tokha Formations, dated from 50 to 14 ky BP, and represent a diverse fluvio-deltaic sedimentary facies mainly consisting of gravelly to coarse sands, black, orange and brown clays. EC Ra was measured in the laboratory by radon-222 emanation. The samples ( n = 177) are placed in air-tight glass containers, from which, after an accumulation time varying from 3 to 18 days, the concentration of radon-222, radioactive decay product of radium-226 and radioactive gas with a half-life of 3.8 days, is measured using scintillation flasks. The EC Ra values from the seven different profiles of the terrace deposits vary from 0.4 to 43 Bq kg -1, with profile averages ranging from 12 ± 1 to 27 ± 2 Bq kg -1. The values have a remarkable consistency along a particular horizon of sediment layers, clearly demonstrating that these values can be used for long distance correlations of the sediment horizons. Widely separated sediment profiles, representing similar stratigraphic positions, exhibit consistent EC Ra values in corresponding stratigraphic sediment layers. EC Ra measurements therefore appear particularly useful for lithologic and stratigraphic discriminations. For comparison, EC Ra values of soils from different localities having various sources of origin were also obtained: 9.2 ± 0.4 Bq kg -1 in soils of Syabru-Bensi (Central Nepal), 23 ± 1 Bq kg -1 in red residual soils of the Bhattar-Trisuli Bazar terrace (North of Kathmandu), 17.1 ± 0.3 Bq kg -1 in red residual soils of terrace of Kalikasthan (North of Trisuli Bazar) and 10 ± 1 Bq kg -1 in red residual soils of a site near Nagarkot (East of Kathmandu). The knowledge of EC Ra values for these various soils is important for modelling radon exhalation at the ground surface, in particular in the vicinity of active faults. Importantly, the study also reveals that, above numerous sediments of Kathmandu Valley, radon concentration in dwellings can potentially exceed the level of 300 Bq m -3 for residential areas; a fact that should be seriously taken into account by the governmental and non-governmental agencies as well as building authorities

Seismites in the Kathmandu basin and seismic hazard in central Himalaya

International audienceSoft-sediment deformation structures have been analyzed at six sites of the Kathmandu valley. Microgranulometric study reveals that silty levels (60 to 80% silt) favor the development of soft-sediment deformation structures, while sandy levels (60 to 80% sand) are passively deformed. Nonetheless well sorted sand levels (more than 80% sand) generate over-fluid pressure during compaction if located beneath a silty cap, leading to fluidization and dike development. 3-D geometry of seismites indicates a very strong horizontal shearing during their development. Using a physical approach based on soil liquefaction during horizontal acceleration, we show that the fluidization zone progressively grows down-section during the shaking, but does not exactly begin at the surface. The comparison of bed-thickness and strength/depth evolution indicates three cases: i) no soft-sediment deformation occurs for thin (few centimeters) silty beds; ii) the thickness of soft-sediment deformation above sandy beds is controlled by the lithological contrast; iii) the thickness of soft-sediment deformation depends on the shaking intensity for very thick silty beds. These 3 cases are evidenced in the Kathmandu basin. We use the 30 cm-thick soft-sediment deformation level formed during the 1833 earthquake as a reference: the 1833 earthquake rupture zone extended very close to Kathmandu, inducing there MMI IX-X damages. A 90 cm-thick sediment deformation has therefore to be induced by an event greater than MMI X. From a compilation of paleo and historic seismology studies, it is found that the great (M ~ 8.1) historical earthquakes are not characteristic of the greatest earthquakes of Himalaya; hence earthquakes greater than M ~ 8.6 occurred. Kathmandu is located above one of the asperities that laterally limits the extent of mega-earthquake ruptures and two successive catastrophic events already affected Kathmandu, in 1255 located to the west of this asperity and in ~ 1100 to the east