Large scale integration of renewable energy sources (RES) in the future Colombian energy system

The diversification of the energy matrix, including larger shares of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), is a significant part of the Colombian energy strategy towards a sustainable and more secure energy system. Historically, the country has relied on the intensive use of hydropower and fossil fuels as the main energy sources. Colombia has a huge renewables potential, and therefore the exploration of different pathways for their integration is required. The aim of this study was to build a model for a country with a hydro-dominated electric power system and analyse the impacts of integrated variable RES in long-term future scenarios. EnergyPLAN was the modelling tool employed for simulating the reference year and future alternatives. Initially, the reference model was validated, and successively five different scenarios were built. The results show that an increase in the shares of wind, solar and bioenergy could achieve an approximate reduction of 20% in both the CO2 emissions and the total fuel consumption of the country by 2030. Further, in the electricity sector the best-case scenario could allow an estimated 60% reduction in its emission intensity

Assessing security of supply in a largely hydroelectricity-based system: The Colombian case

One of the primary challenges of the power industry, worldwide, is making the capacity investment appropriate for the achievement of security of supply. This challenge is becoming even more relevant as power generation is increasingly based on renewables that are intermittent and seasonally dependent. In this context, policy makers and regulators implement capacity mechanisms that seek to overcome the intrinsic shortcomings of renewables. Failing to do so, given the uncertainty and complexity involved, means either that excessive overcapacity will become persistent and remain idle, or that under-capacity will prompt blackouts and high electricity prices. To help manage the uncertainty and complexity, this paper contributes to a better understanding of the effects of the capacity mechanism on electricity markets with a high share of hydropower – by using a system dynamics modelling approach applied to Colombia. In the past, though the capacity mechanism induced large reserve margins, the system has been at serious risk of experience blackouts and has resulted in extremely high electricity prices over a prolonged period. In the future, worse scenarios are possible: historically-familiar events – when backup plants were not available – may recur when new capacity is delayed, posing an even greater threat to the syste